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This might not be the correct location for this post, someone can move it or lock it if they think it should be.

I was looking for a way to compare NPL clubs that play in different states. Having not found one, I decide to develop my own based on a modified Elo system with League based vectors.
I based the system on the European Club Elo system http://clubelo.com/
I kept it to only Tier 1 and 2 clubs even though teams in Tier 3 in some states would no doubt be better than Tier 2 clubs in other states.
The League based vectors come from inter-league competitive matches (FFA Cup and NPL Finals) since 2013. NSW's poor performance in the 2014 FFA Cup pulls their teams rankings down a bit at the moment.
I also excluded the Preliminary Rounds of the FFA Cup from my calculations.

Current as of 25/6/15

Position   Team   League   Points
1   Melbourne Victory   AL   2685
2   Sydney FC   AL   2661
3   Perth Glory   AL   2605
4   Adelaide United   AL   2595
5   Wellington Phoenix   AL   2533
6   Melbourne City FC   AL   2527
7   Brisbane Roar   AL   2521
8   Central Coast Mariners   AL   2457
9   Western Sydney Wanderers   AL   2404
10   Newcastle United Jets   AL   2389
11   Bentleigh Greens   VIC   2224
12   West Torrens Birkalla   SA   2215
13   South Melbourne FC   VIC   2209
14   West Adelaide Hellas   SA   2184
15   MetroStars SC   SA   2170
16   Heidelberg United   VIC   2164
17   Croydon Kings SC   SA   2160
18   Adelaide Blue Eagles   SA   2090
19   Melbourne Knights   VIC   2066
20   Adelaide City FC   SA   2060
21   Bayswater City SC   WA   2056
22   Oakleigh Cannons   VIC   2056
23   Campbelltown City SC   SA   2042
24   Blacktown City FC   NSW   2041
25   Hume City FC   VIC   2019
26   Bonnyrigg White Eagles   NSW   2018
27   Pascoe Vale SC   VIC   2014
28   Adelaide Raiders   SA   1964
29   Sydney Olympic   NSW   1942
30   Adelaide Comets   SA   1937
31   Port Adelaide Pirates   SA   1936
32   Northcote City FC   VIC   1932
33   Avondale FC   VIC   1915
34   Port Melbourne Sharks SC   VIC   1907
35   APIA Leichhardt Tigers   NSW   1905
36   Modbury Jets SC   SA   1904
37   Werribee City FC   VIC   1895
38   Perth SC   WA   1895
39   Green Gully SC   VIC   1880
40   White City FC   SA   1872
41   South Adelaide Panthers   SA   1867
42   Brisbane Strikers   QLD   1857
43   Floreat Athena   WA   1854
44   Moreton Bay Jets   QLD   1853
45   Dandenong Thunder   VIC   1851
46   South Coast Wolves   NSW   1847
47   Sorrento FC   WA   1835
48   Sydney United 58   NSW   1833
49   Rockdale City Suns   NSW   1830
50   South Hobart FC   TAS   1828
51   Sutherland Sharks   NSW   1827
52   Cockburn City SC   WA   1827
53   Blacktown Spartans   NSW   1824
54   Para Hills Knights SC   SA   1814
55   Olympic FC   QLD   1808
56   Balcatta SC   WA   1803
57   Stirling Lions SC   WA   1801
58   Palm Beach Sharks   QLD   1794
59   North Geelong Warriors SC   VIC   1789
60   Manly United   NSW   1769
61   Olympia Warriors   TAS   1759
62   Inglewood United   WA   1752
63   Hobart Zebras   TAS   1735
64   Belconnen United   ACT   1720
65   Redlands United   QLD   1714
66   Parramatta FC   NSW   1713
67   Brisbane Roar (Y)   QLD   1709
68   Far North Qld Heat   QLD   1707
69   Sunshine Coast Fire   QLD   1697
70   ECU Joondalup   WA   1688
71   Marconi Stallions   NSW   1682
72   Cooma FC   ACT   1675
73   Canberra FC   ACT   1658
74   Brisbane City FC   QLD   1647
75   Canberra Olympic   ACT   1640
76   Northern Rangers   TAS   1633
77   Northern Fury   QLD   1612
78   Subiaco AFC   WA   1609
79   Devonport City   TAS   1594
80   Perth Glory (Y)   WA   1587
81   FFA COE   ACT   1579
82   Western Pride   QLD   1565
83   Armadale SC   WA   1551
84   Hamilton Olympic   NNSW   1526
85   Lambton Jaffas   NNSW   1523
86   Weston Workers FC   NNSW   1497
87   Kingborough Lions United   TAS   1496
88   Gungahlin United   ACT   1477
89   Edgeworth FC   NNSW   1473
90   Woden Weston FC   ACT   1460
91   Launceston City FC   TAS   1455
92   Adamstown Rosebud   NNSW   1425
93   Broadmeadow Magic   NNSW   1386
94   Newcastle United Jets (Y)   NNSW   1379
95   Monaro Panthers   ACT   1366
96   Glenorchy Knights   TAS   1356
97   Charlestown City Blues   NNSW   1331
98   Tuggeranong United   ACT   1316
99   SWQ Thunder   QLD   1305
100   South Cardiff FC   NNSW   1280
101   Maitland FC   NNSW   1265




Edited by paladisious: 26/6/2015 03:22:22 PM

Edited by joffa: 30/8/2015 08:49:27 PM

Interesting! So aside from the elo site, can you explain in more detail how this works?

Is your data just from this season? Are points earned from league games, cup games or both?

Very interesting how close Bentleigh and the Jets are, is it possible for the Greens to overtake them during this NPLV season without being in the FFA Cup?

So the data used is from the start of the NPL, 2013 for most states, 2014 for Vic, WA and NNSW, and the 2013-14 A-League season. 2655 matches so far.

Only league, finals, NPL finals and FFA Cup proper matches count. So State Cups and/or FFA Cup preliminary rounds are ignored. Any FFA Cup match featuring a team from below Tier 2 is also ignored.

The League vectors are calculated from inter-league matches eg. FFA Cup and NPL Finals. The Elo points won or lost by the club from each league is multiplied by 6 and then added to or subtracted from every club in that league.
So with this being the case, if an A-League club loses to any non-A-League club in the 1st round of the FFA Cup, especially a Victorian NPL club, then Bentleigh would likely go above the Jets. As long as they maintain their form in the NPL.

The Elo formula has also been modified slightly, with the main difference being that if a club with a much lower Elo point score has a narrow loss to a much stronger team, it is possible to actually gain points despite losing, with the opposite also being the case, the stronger club can lose points despite winning narrowly.

Interesting that there is no NSW NPL sides until Blacktown at #24

Nice!

Have you automated this to make it easy to keep up to date?

Happy to sticky if you're keen to do this.

ECU Joondalup at 70 is a farce! Pumpsssss out the O/S Aussies like no other club in the country :lol:

Edited by eastern glory: 26/6/2015 02:52:17 PM

NSW's 2014 FFA Cup performance really hurt them in these ratings, with only 2 years of NPL Finals and 1 FFA Cup it will take a while for the league vectors to settle down.

It's pretty much automated, so i should be able to keep it updated every week or so (At least during the NPL seasons).

Love your work! :)

TBH I think this belongs in AF.

It'll be good after a few seasons when there's more data for those inter-league vectors, still, the Williamses aren't doing much for the senior Joondalup squad in England!

Good to see SA up there where it belongs

Good to see SA's Campbelltown City 27 places above Sth Hobart... even though Sth Hobart beat Campbelltown 3-1 not long ago:d

South Hobart also drew at home against the Tuggies since that win against Campbelltown. Tuggies are 48 places below South Hobart.

Surprised to see Birkalla that high, although I guess they are currently top and always there or there abouts punching above their weight.

Edited by milan_7: 27/6/2015 05:05:58 PM

Surprised at the small gap between the a league and the npl
Of course a league teams are rarely at full strength when they play npl teams

Would it be possible to include 2nd divs in at least Victoria and NSW, or is it impossible without creating some sort of artificial markdown for results in those divisions, or other adjustments? Even so, would that be feasible?

It would be possible, although i'm not sure how it would need to be adjusted to make it properly representative. I might run a few test runs to see how it works out. Also finding a good website with NSW NPL2 results that makes for easy automation has been a challenge.

So since 2013... yet WSW and Roar arent in the top 3 along with MV. Hmm.

With Elo rankings, the older the result, the less it means. Matches more than 30 games ago become irrelevant. The rankings are as of today.

Updated 28/6/15
Position   Team   League   Points   Pos Last Week
1   Melbourne Victory   AL   2685   1
2   Sydney FC   AL   2661   2
3   Perth Glory   AL   2605   3
4   Adelaide United   AL   2595   4
5   Wellington Phoenix   AL   2533   5
6   Melbourne City FC   AL   2527   6
7   Brisbane Roar   AL   2521   7
8   Central Coast Mariners   AL   2457   8
9   Western Sydney Wanderers   AL   2404   9
10   Newcastle United Jets   AL   2389   10
11   Bentleigh Greens   VIC   2248   11
12   West Torrens Birkalla   SA   2215   12
13   South Melbourne FC   VIC   2185   13
14   West Adelaide Hellas   SA   2184   14
15   MetroStars SC   SA   2170   15
16   Croydon Kings SC   SA   2160   17
17   Heidelberg United   VIC   2149   16
18   Adelaide Blue Eagles   SA   2090   18
19   Melbourne Knights   VIC   2079   19
20   Bayswater City SC   WA   2061   21
21   Adelaide City FC   SA   2060   20
22   Campbelltown City SC   SA   2042   23
23   Pascoe Vale SC   VIC   2041   27
24   Blacktown City FC   NSW   2038   24
25   Hume City FC   VIC   2032   25
26   Oakleigh Cannons   VIC   2029   22
27   Bonnyrigg White Eagles   NSW   2025   26
28   Adelaide Raiders   SA   1964   28
29   Northcote City FC   VIC   1956   32
30   Adelaide Comets   SA   1937   30
31   Port Adelaide Pirates   SA   1936   31
32   Avondale FC   VIC   1930   33
33   Sydney Olympic   NSW   1921   29
34   Perth SC   WA   1909   38
35   APIA Leichhardt Tigers   NSW   1908   35
36   Green Gully SC   VIC   1906   39
37   Modbury Jets SC   SA   1904   36
38   Port Melbourne Sharks SC   VIC   1883   34
39   Brisbane Strikers   QLD   1874   42
40   White City FC   SA   1872   40
41   Werribee City FC   VIC   1869   37
42   South Adelaide Panthers   SA   1867   41
43   Floreat Athena   WA   1865   43
44   Sydney United 58   NSW   1852   48
45   Rockdale City Suns   NSW   1851   49
46   Blacktown Spartans   NSW   1851   53
47   Moreton Bay Jets   QLD   1846   44
48   Sorrento FC   WA   1840   47
49   Dandenong Thunder   VIC   1838   45
50   South Hobart FC   TAS   1837   50
51   Sutherland Sharks   NSW   1820   51
52   South Coast Wolves   NSW   1820   46
53   Balcatta SC   WA   1819   56
54   Olympic FC   QLD   1818   55
55   Para Hills Knights SC   SA   1814   54
56   Cockburn City SC   WA   1798   52
57   Palm Beach Sharks   QLD   1794   58
58   Stirling Lions SC   WA   1786   57
59   Inglewood United   WA   1781   62
60   Manly United   NSW   1780   60
61   North Geelong Warriors SC   VIC   1776   59
62   Olympia Warriors   TAS   1763   61
63   Hobart Zebras   TAS   1744   63
64   Belconnen United   ACT   1741   64
65   Redlands United   QLD   1734   65
66   Parramatta FC   NSW   1695   66
67   Brisbane Roar (Y)   QLD   1693   67
68   Sunshine Coast Fire   QLD   1687   69
69   Far North Qld Heat   QLD   1679   68
70   Brisbane City FC   QLD   1676   74
71   ECU Joondalup   WA   1675   70
72   Cooma FC   ACT   1675   72
73   Marconi Stallions   NSW   1671   71
74   Canberra FC   ACT   1658   73
75   Northern Rangers   TAS   1637   76
76   Canberra Olympic   ACT   1619   75
77   Subiaco AFC   WA   1604   78
78   Northern Fury   QLD   1593   77
79   Devonport City   TAS   1586   79
80   Perth Glory (Y)   WA   1576   80
81   Western Pride   QLD   1565   82
82   FFA COE   ACT   1559   81
83   Armadale SC   WA   1547   83
84   Lambton Jaffas   NNSW   1538   85
85   Hamilton Olympic   NNSW   1516   84
86   Weston Workers FC   NNSW   1502   86
87   Gungahlin United   ACT   1498   88
88   Edgeworth FC   NNSW   1493   89
89   Kingborough Lions United   TAS   1487   87
90   Woden Weston FC   ACT   1478   90
91   Launceston City FC   TAS   1451   91
92   Adamstown Rosebud   NNSW   1435   92
93   Broadmeadow Magic   NNSW   1366   93
94   Monaro Panthers   ACT   1366   95
95   Glenorchy Knights   TAS   1352   96
96   Newcastle United Jets (Y)   NNSW   1348   94
97   Charlestown City Blues   NNSW   1316   97
98   SWQ Thunder   QLD   1312   99
99   Tuggeranong United   ACT   1299   98
100   Maitland FC   NNSW   1296   101
101   South Cardiff FC   NNSW   1274   100

Great work witness baby.

I can get around this (y)

Very impressive. Thanks.

This is great.

It's hard to compare the different leagues around Australia, particularly because there are so few inter-state games.

I'm guessing it's nearly impossible to do, but it'd be good to apply this to the various leagues within a state that are technically the same level. E.g. in Queensland you have the NPL, and below that all the various regional leagues (Brisbane, Sunshine Coast, Wide Bay, etc.).

As a stats nerd this is one of the greatest threads i have ever seen. Thank you and keep up the good work.

11Th is Bentleigh Greens. I said this in the other thread. Easily close to knocking off an A-League side 6 out of 10 times.

But not Ballarat Red Devils.

Didn't manage:

Got around to including the 2nd Divisions of the NPL for NSW and Vic. In doing so I also included all preliminary FFA Cup games that included 2 NPL clubs.
So the new rankings up to matches played on the 7th of July
Position   Team   League   Points
1   Melbourne Victory   AL   2731
2   Sydney FC   AL   2705
3   Perth Glory   AL   2653
4   Adelaide United   AL   2641
5   Wellington Phoenix   AL   2578
6   Melbourne City FC   AL   2573
7   Brisbane Roar   AL   2567
8   Central Coast Mariners   AL   2502
9   Western Sydney Wanderers   AL   2451
10   Newcastle United Jets   AL   2434
11   Bentleigh Greens   VIC   2305
12   Heidelberg United   VIC   2276
13   South Melbourne FC   VIC   2270
14   Hume City FC   VIC   2190
15   Melbourne Knights   VIC   2186
16   Croydon Kings SC   SA   2176
17   Pascoe Vale SC   VIC   2132
18   Oakleigh Cannons   VIC   2116
19   Blacktown City FC   NSW   2102
20   West Adelaide Hellas   SA   2089
21   MetroStars SC   SA   2089
22   Northcote City FC   VIC   2072
23   Adelaide City FC   SA   2069
24   Bayswater City SC   WA   2064
25   Bonnyrigg White Eagles   NSW   2044
26   Green Gully SC   VIC   2040
27   West Torrens Birkalla   SA   2037
28   Avondale FC   VIC   2030
29   Adelaide Blue Eagles   SA   2026
30   Campbelltown City SC   SA   2005
31   Port Melbourne Sharks SC   VIC   1999
32   Sydney Olympic   NSW   1998
33   APIA Leichhardt Tigers   NSW   1958
34   Werribee City FC   VIC   1935
35   North Geelong Warriors SC   VIC   1927
36   Perth SC   WA   1926
37   Brisbane Strikers   QLD   1918
38   Rockdale City Suns   NSW   1911
39   White City FC   SA   1901
40   Dandenong Thunder   VIC   1900
41   Sydney United 58   NSW   1897
42   Port Adelaide Pirates   SA   1896
43   Modbury Jets SC   SA   1891
44   Sorrento FC   WA   1883
45   South Coast Wolves   NSW   1876
46   Blacktown Spartans   NSW   1872
47   Adelaide Comets   SA   1867
48   Sutherland Sharks   NSW   1865
49   South Hobart FC   TAS   1855
50   Moreton Bay Jets   QLD   1851
51   South Adelaide Panthers   SA   1849
52   Manly United   NSW   1839
53   Adelaide Raiders   SA   1836
54   Floreat Athena   WA   1832
55   Richmond   VIC2   1821
56   St Albans Saints   VIC2   1815
57   Olympic FC   QLD   1801
58   Moreland Zebras   VIC2   1785
59   Cockburn City SC   WA   1781
60   Stirling Lions SC   WA   1762
61   Palm Beach Sharks   QLD   1762
62   Bulleen Lions   VIC2   1760
63   Redlands United   QLD   1760
64   Inglewood United   WA   1756
65   Parramatta FC   NSW   1753
66   Olympia Warriors   TAS   1753
67   Para Hills Knights SC   SA   1747
68   Balcatta SC   WA   1747
69   Goulburn Valley Suns   VIC2   1736
70   Far North Qld Heat   QLD   1733
71   Ballarat Red Devils   VIC2   1727
72   Hobart Zebras   TAS   1723
73   Kingston City   VIC2   1719
74   Box Hill United   VIC2   1715
75   Marconi Stallions   NSW   1696
76   Melbourne Victory (Y)   VIC2   1688
77   Brisbane Roar (Y)   QLD   1676
78   Brisbane City FC   QLD   1663
79   Sunshine Coast Fire   QLD   1662
80   Subiaco AFC   WA   1657
81   Dandenong City   VIC2   1654
82   ECU Joondalup   WA   1653
83   Whittlesea Ranges   VIC2   1646
84   Belconnen United   ACT   1646
85   Northern Rangers   TAS   1646
86   Cooma FC   ACT   1642
87   Melbourne City (Y)   VIC2   1635
88   Sunshine George Cross   VIC2   1613
89   Moreland City   VIC2   1600
90   Canberra FC   ACT   1596
91   Eastern Lions   VIC2   1594
92   Northern Fury   QLD   1592
93   Western Pride   QLD   1591
94   Gungahlin United   ACT   1590
95   Bendigo City   VIC2   1590
96   Edgeworth FC   NNSW   1574
97   Armadale SC   WA   1564
98   Devonport City   TAS   1558
99   Perth Glory (Y)   WA   1539
100   Canberra Olympic   ACT   1537
101   Lambton Jaffas   NNSW   1527
102   Springvale White Eagles   VIC2   1526
103   FFA COE   ACT   1518
104   Kingborough Lions United   TAS   1518
105   Murray United   VIC2   1496
106   Hamilton Olympic   NNSW   1469
107   Spirit FC   NSW2   1462
108   Weston Workers FC   NNSW   1456
109   Brunswick City   VIC2   1452
110   Launceston City FC   TAS   1436
111   Adamstown Rosebud   NNSW   1418
112   Northern Tigers   NSW2   1409
113   Broadmeadow Magic   NNSW   1406
114   Central Coast FC   NSW2   1397
115   Woden Weston FC   ACT   1393
116   Newcastle United Jets (Y)   NNSW   1359
117   Fraser Park   NSW2   1351
118   Hakoah Sydney City East   NSW2   1346
119   Glenorchy Knights   TAS   1344
120   Bankstown City Lions   NSW2   1341
121   SWQ Thunder   QLD   1336
122   Macarthur Rams   NSW2   1330
123   Nunawading City   VIC2   1324
124   Charlestown City Blues   NNSW   1321
125   Monaro Panthers   ACT   1313
126   St George FC   NSW2   1308
127   Tuggeranong United   ACT   1302
128   Bankstown Berries   NSW2   1294
129   Maitland FC   NNSW   1274
130   Sydney University   NSW2   1274
131   Mt Druitt Town Rangers   NSW2   1270
132   South Cardiff FC   NNSW   1254
133   Mounties Wanderers   NSW2   1246