January: hot or not?

January 31, 2013 - 4:49PM
Stephen Cauchi

It's been a very dry January, but despite all the talk about a "dome of heat", it wasn't actually that warm.

Melbourne has so far recorded just 8 millimetres of rain this month, 40 millimetres below the January average. That ranks this month among the driest 10 per cent of Januarys on record.

In 2009, by contrast, a mere 0.4 millimetres fell. The driest January in Melbourne on record occurred in 1932, when 0.3 millimetres fell.

But rain tonight could moisten that result a little. According to weather forecasters Weatherzone, a passing cold front could dump 5 to 10 millimetres across the city tonight. Scattered and light showers will continue across the weekend.

Looking ahead, rainfall is expected to be more or less average for the rest of summer and into early autumn. According to the Bureau of Meteorology, Victoria has a 50 per cent chance of exceeding average rainfall for February to April.

In terms of temperature, Melbourne was warmer than average, but not dramatically hot. The average maximum temperature was 27.4, marginally hotter than the long-term January average of 25.9. Minimum temperatures were about 1.5 degrees warmer than average.

"January 2012 was actually warmer, both days and nights," said Weatherzone senior meteorologist Brett Dutschke. "This year wasn't a real standout regarding temperatures."

The long-term forecast for February to April is for cooler temperatures for Victoria. There is only a 35 to 40 per cent chance temperatures will exceed the long-term average, according to Weatherzone.

Despite the dry month, there's still plenty of water left. Melbourne's water storages are currently at 78.1 per cent full, the highest since the mid-1990s.



Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/january-hot-or-not-20130131-2dmy7.html#ixzz2JXXdYOLz