My prediction is based on a culmination of polling, sentiment and predicting where the nominees will focus during the general campaign. I won't link to everything now because I'm on my phone but will do so later tonight if I can be bothered.

We know that at least a third of Sanders supporters will not vote for Clinton under any circumstances, even if she were to put Sanders on the ticket. I suspect that number is now closer to 40% with the massive amount of voter suppression and disenfranchisement that has been exposed during the democratic primary voting.

There are still a few scenarios where Clinton wins, but not many.

Here's the basic breakdown, feel free to quote it back at me in November whether I'm correct or very wrong.

Clinton wins if Trump gets snubbed by GOP at convention, although she may lose to Kasich h2h if Trump bows out from there. She wins reasonably comfortably against Cruz, but if Trump runs third party Clinton wins resoundingly.

If Sanders runs third party, as I think that he should, it doesn't matter who Clinton is up against - she loses.

You can talk about Trumps unpopularity all you like, but you're failing to also acknowledge just how unpopular Clinton is for a huge chunk of moderate voters, including a huge chunk of Democrats who voted Obama.

There are easily more variables in this election than any other I have analysed in the past and I've only discussed a few of them here... But I think that the spine is basically the same.

Sanders will not runs third party after he lost , he be finished in Washington if he did that

a third of Sanders supporters is still only 6% of votes , and i'm sure that 6% not going to vote Trump

Bernie may not run independent as that may well take votes off the Democrats and will probably benefit Trump in the general. As he has said in interviews, he will try anything possible to keep a Republican out of the White House.

I was discussing this with a mate the other day, "Imagine the personality and intelligence of someone who WILLINGLY votes for people like Cruz and Clinton". At least Trump supporters have a sense of humour and can see obvious establishment bullshit

I think there was a poll suggesting 20% of non Trump republicans won't for Trump and less than 10% of sanders voters won't vote for Clinton.

That said, I think Trump will be 1 major terrorist attack away from the presidency. The more scared people are the more right wing/nationalists they will vote.

Imagine the intelligence of someone voting for the past States Secretary of State, and United States Senator, over the guy who Daddy give him his money and business

people forget, Trump 70 years old

Edited by adrtho: 28/4/2016 02:21:21 PM

I have seen a number of times the 2 following myths:

- That Clinton is extremely unpopular
- That a significant portion of Sanders voters will not vote for Hillary

The simple facts are as follows:

- Trump is much more unpopular than any other candidate.
- The vast majority of Sanders voters would be satisfied with Hillary being the democrat candidate

This is borne out in all of the credible polling.

I think people are confusing the views of hardcore Sanders supporters with the general view of Sanders voters.

Likewise, Clinton is well and truly a known quantity. People in general have made their mind up about her. I just don't buy the credibility of the argument that somehow Trump could make her significantly more unpopular.

If it was Trump v Sanders, I could believe that - Sanders is much more of an unknown quality amongst those who don't vote in primaries (85% of the population).

Appreciate hearing the reasoning behind why you guys think Trump is a lock, but I disagree with your arguments.

We shall see!

Have any links to these credible polls that back up these two specific claims?

Everything I read shows Clintons H2H lead over Trump growing smaller every poll. On The Hill today they were reporting as low as 3 points, and that's before Clinton has had to share a stage with Trump dragging out every dirty little secret from her entire political career from her being a Goldwater Girl right up to the emails - all dirty little secrets that Sanders has been completely unwilling to go near because he's been running a values & issues based campaign.

Sanders has consistently polled double digits H2H against any Republican, including Trump.

How many Independent women that support Sanders do you think are going to change to Clinton after being slandered in the media for only being Sanders supporters because "that's where the boys are"?

How many millennial Americans that support Sanders do you think are going to change to Clinton after being told that they're too dumb to understand politics, economics or foreign affairs and that's why they support Sanders?

For people disappointed with Obamas presidency and are still hungry to expedite political change, why would they ever vote for Clinton? In nearly every respect, a Trump presidency will be better for that revolutionary spirit than Clinton - and people are taking notice and expressing that sentiment despite the paid Clinton trolls trying to muddy the waters.



The Greens have been lobbying him hard to team up and run third party.

I think it makes sense for his goals in the long run, even if it hands a Republican the Whitehouse for 4 years. It shows the DNC where a large sentiment lies and where a great deal of Independent/Disenfranchised votes can be picked up in cycles to come.

Hillary Clinton $1.30 to be next President, some body must like her

Edited by adrtho: 28/4/2016 09:14:32 PM

General election polls between the two hasn't been wider since August 2015, Notorganic

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

yes...they all read about the GWU/Battleground poll 2 or 3 days ago that said it was only +3 to Clinton

Thats cherrypicking polls. If we cherrypicked all polls we could've shown Bernie beating Hillary in tonnes of states he lost.

Best to go off the average. If we do that the gap is very wide right now.

Yep, isolate it to the past 30 days where the height of voter suppression has been coming to light and the trend is travelling exactly in the way I have said.



Oh fuck off you disingenuous twat. Using an example to show HOW LOW IT GOES is not cherrypicking or making a claim that all polls are saying that it's that low.

If you're not able to argue honestly, there's really no point.

Referring to this. It can't be growing smaller every poll, when its been gaining.

that why polls has a margin error

Trump's 'America first' speech alarms U.S. allies

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trumps-america-first-speech-alarms-u-allies-133358836.html

LONDON (Reuters) - Donald Trump's first major foreign policy address alarmed American allies, who view the Republican front runner's repeated invocation of an "America first" agenda as a threat to retreat from the world.

While most governments were careful not to comment publicly on a speech by a U.S. presidential candidate, Germany's foreign minister veered from that protocol to express concern at Trump's wording.

"I can only hope that the election campaign in the USA does not lack the perception of reality," Frank-Walter Steinmeier said.

"The world's security architecture has changed and it is no longer based on two pillars alone. It cannot be conducted unilaterally," he said of foreign policy in a post-Cold War world. "No American president can get round this change in the international security architecture.... 'America first' is actually no answer to that."

Carl Bildt, a former Swedish prime minister and foreign minister who served as UN envoy to the Balkans in the aftermath of the Yugoslav wars of the 1990s, said he heard Trump's speech as "abandoning both democratic allies and democratic values".

"Trump had not a word against Russian aggression in Ukraine, but plenty against past U.S. support for democracy in Egypt," Bildt said on Twitter, referring to lines from Trump's speech that criticized the Barack Obama administration for withdrawing support for autocrat Hosni Mubarak during a 2011 uprising.

"FIRST ISOLATIONIST CANDIDATE"

Trump's speech, uncharacteristically read out from a teleprompter, seemed aimed at showing a more serious side of a politician who has said he intends to act more "presidential" after months of speaking mainly off the cuff.

He promised "a disciplined, deliberate and consistent foreign policy" in contrast to the "reckless, rudderless and aimless" policies of Obama and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Trump's likely Democratic opponent if he secures the Republican nomination.

The speech included no dramatic new policy proposals that might generate headlines, such as his past calls to bar Muslims from entering the United States or to build a wall on the frontier with Mexico.

Where he was specific, like rejecting the terms of last year's nuclear deal with Iran, calling for more investment in missile defense in Europe and accusing the Obama administration of tepid support for Israel, he was firmly within the Republican mainstream.

A major theme -- that more NATO allies should spend at least 2 percent of their economic output on defense -- is one that has also been taken up by the Obama administration itself, including repeatedly during the president's visit to Europe last week.

Nevertheless, Trump's rhetoric raised alarm in allied countries that still rely on the superpower for defense, particularly the phrase "America first", used in the 1930s by isolationists that sought to keep the United States out of World War Two.

Former South Korean Vice Foreign Minister Kim Sung-han, who now teaches at the Korea University in Seoul, said Trump would be "the first isolationist to be U.S. presidential candidate, while in the post-war era all the U.S. presidents have been to varying degrees internationalists.”

“Saying the U.S. will no longer engage in anything that is a burden in terms of its relationships with allies, it would be almost like abandoning those alliances," he said. “It will inevitably give rise to anti-American sentiment worldwide.”

Xenia Wickett, head of the U.S. and Americas Programme at Britain's Chatham House think tank, said the speech “suggests Trump would make America’s allies less secure rather than more.

"He talked about allies being confident but all of his rhetoric suggested that America should be unpredictable and that America’s allies needed to stand up for themselves."

"DISASTER"

Earlier in the U.S. nomination process, foreign leaders were not shy to condemn Trump openly and publicly.

In December, when Trump called for his temporary ban on admitting Muslims, British Prime Minister David Cameron called him "divisive, stupid and wrong". Hundreds of thousands of Britons signed a petition calling for Trump to be banned from Britain for hate speech, which was taken up in parliament. Cameron declined to ban Trump, but said: "If he came to visit our country, I think he would unite us against him."

In January, German Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel lumped Trump together with the leaders of European far-right parties as "not only a threat to peace and social cohesion, but also to economic development".

These days, with Trump now seen as likely to win his party's nomination, European officials are more circumspect in public, but sound no less alarmed in private.

A Trump presidency “would be a disaster for EU-U.S. ties," said one senior EU official involved in shaping foreign policy in Brussels.

"Right now, we and the Obama administration generally understand each other. I don’t think we understand Donald Trump. He has no understanding of the delicate, complex nature of foreign policy on Europe’s doorstep.”

Nevertheless, some of the policies Trump shares with other Republicans do have sympathetic audiences abroad.

Ryszard Terlecki, head of the parliamentary group of Poland's ruling rightwing Law and Justice party, said Trump had a point when criticizing the Obama administration for backing away from plans for increased missile defense.

"This decision influenced very badly the security of this part of Europe. If it weren't for that, the conflict in Ukraine would not escalate," he told Reuters.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has strongly opposed the Obama administration's deal with Iran, and Trump's speech, like an earlier one to a pro-Israel lobby group in Washington, went down well with some right-leaning Israelis.

"Trump wants an America that is decent, strong, loyal - but also no patsy. And he sees in Israel the most loyal ally of the U.S." wrote Boaz Bismuth, diplomatic correspondent for the pro-Netanyahu daily Israel Hayom.

In the Arab world, where governments and their citizens are also alarmed at the rise of non-Arab Iran, Trump's strong rejection of the deal with Tehran is a popular position that would have been embraced if expressed by another candidate.

But Trump's previous call to ban Muslims from the United States has made him anathema in the region. Emirati political analyst Abdulkhaleq Abdullah said no speech would be enough to salvage his reputation there: "He's a racist and a chauvinist who will never be widely welcomed in the Arab world."

Or, as Kuwaiti twitter user Mohammed al-Ammar wrote: "Some of his speech is correct and logical, but the problem is, he's still #Trump."

(Reporting by Andreas Rinke in Berlin, Robin Emmott in Brussels, Dan Williams in Jerusalem, Jack Kim in Seoul, Noah Browning in Dubai, Pawel Sobczak in Warsaw and Guy Faulconbridge in London; writing by Peter Graff; editing by Anna Willard)

with only 39.7 of the vote

Primary voter turnout is not linked to general election voter turnout.

Primary voter turnout is mostly linked to perceptions of a competitive race.

Given the vast republican field, and the ongoing 3-way race, it makes sense that voter turnout is RELATIVELY high.

Just keep in mind that only about 15% of the electorate vote in primaries at all. Therefore only about 7-8% of the electorate votes in the republican primary.

We are still working off very small numbers compared to the 30-50% of the electorate who vote in the general election.

That is how Trump can seemingly be so popular yet unpopular at the same time.

Cocaine found in the Trump Tower.

Nvm it was apparently an anthrax letter

jesus

It is the christian thing to do isn't it?

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/04/28/politics/donald-trump-russia-putin/

Russia is not out enemy, only one person up there has the guts to say it.

Edited by 433: 29/4/2016 08:55:05 PM

Russia Stated goal , is to go back to the 1960s where USSR hold power over the Eastern Part of Europe...Russia wants to have final say over Estonia,Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Czech Republic   , Finland, as well the Ukraine , and the other non EU old USSR countries.....Russia believe it should have veto say over all theses countries, as if it some kind of King

when Russia act on this goal, it become the enemy of the USA (Australia to) just as it did during the cold war...it doesn't matter that it fucking crazy, that it not good for Russia or for Russia people, and it make no good reason for Russia to have this goal in 2016, but when Russia act on this goal, Russia become the enemy (end of story)

People inside the US pentagon understand this, the people and governments of Eastern Europe understand this, it why the Polish governments just said the other days, that ISIS is not the danger , the biggest danger is Russia ......

If Trump was to become US Presidents, and failed to listen to the people inside the US pentagon and state dep on Russia, and went the way he talking now about Russia...then we will have War with 5 years.....Russia will invade the Baltic countries , it will invade for the same reason that Argentina invaded the Falklands, because they thought that USA (UK) wouldn't do anything to stop it

the goal of the US right now is to send Russia broke, before Russia has time to build up a modern military


http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/finnish-report-highlights-russian-threat-nato-membership-38756955
Finnish Report Highlights Russian Threat of NATO Membership


Moscow threatens to take military action if its neighbour Sweden enters NATO
http://uatoday.tv/politics/russia-threatens-sweden-over-nato-membership-640406.html




Edited by adrtho: 29/4/2016 11:40:16 PM

Edited by adrtho: 30/4/2016 01:31:01 AM

lets hope they all vote in the coming weeks :p

Edited by adrtho: 29/4/2016 11:22:37 PM

Cruz is gone.

Wow, Cruz dropped out. Secretly want trump to be the President just to see the drama that comes with it. :lol:

Same, until he goes postal and fucks up the world :lol:

America being world police has negatively impacted the country.

Hurr Drumpf will start WW3 Hurr

So now we are clear that it will be Trump v Clinton, the polling regarding this match-up will have more relevance as they start spending on ads against each other and people put their mind to this contest.

Will be interesting to see what the anti-Trump faction within the GOP do - swallow their pride and back their candidate? Or go silent?

Also, Sanders has confirmed he will not run as an independent.

He will.