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one of the best geopolitical financial arbitrage bets , i think is , to bet that Ukrainian government doesn't default and bet that Russia government does
market have Ukrainian government default risk at a higher risk then Russia government ...but what many have missed, is Ukrainian government will do everything that western Governments want. it will comply to all financial controls that IMF and other organisation place on them..Ukrainian will get a continuous money assistant (just in time) to keep Ukrainian government from defaulting
Russia, on the over hand, can not find the money it need, it can not rasie money inside russia, and it may find even great sanction place on it..
Risk, is how much war Putin will make,
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