We need to beat Thailand by at least 2 goals more than Saudi beat Japan. 

The Japanese players know how few spots are in the squad. They'll want to impress. I hope this rumoured fighting isn't true but I can't imagine the veterans dishonouring their national team by missing the WC through a tantrum. Honda Kagawa and Okazaki will likely start. Whoever else starts will be good. They had two inexperienced players who murdered us last night. They're on a high and can play their fancy style. 

Saudi to break that Japan defence and score a few? I just can't see it. Thailand will want to give their all though they should leave themselves exposed. Kruse and Leckie wide and a fit Mooy will deliver the balls for Cahill and Juric. I'd love the game to go like when we played Tajikistan. Just cruise straight through them. 

3 more.  dont they have a superior "goals for" - so we need to have a bigger goal difference than them.

They're 2 goals ahead of us. If we beat Thailand 3:0 and they win 1:0, it'll be equal on goal difference and then it comes to head to head. We beat them in Adelaide. 

Cant see Japan doing anything but trying to win well and players impressing, its not like they have had a great qualification campaign is it?

Qualifying tiebreakers for everyone

In league format, the ranking of teams in each group is based on the following criteria (regulations Articles 20.6 and 20.7):^[16]

1. Points (3 points for a win, 1 point for a draw, 0 points for a loss)
2. Goal difference
3. Goals scored
4. Points in matches between tied teams
5. Goal difference in matches between tied teams
6. Goals scored in matches between tied teams
7. Away goals scored in matches between tied teams (if the tie is only between two teams in home-and-away league format)
8. Fair play points
   • first yellow card: minus 1 point
   • indirect red card (second yellow card): minus 3 points
   • direct red card: minus 4 points
   • yellow card and direct red card: minus 5 points

if the saudis win australia will need to beat their goals scored in that game by 3 goals 

Problem is Australia play first giving the saudis the advantage of what they need to qualify 

But if we win Saudis have to score. If we do win by 3 goals then they have to score 2. Japan can get them as they push forward too much. I expect a lot of crosses into the box and as I stated earlier diving. Especially from corners. 

With atleast 4 goals needed, is this the game where we start maclaren? Or is it a game where we put Timmy upfront?? Hopefully mooys nor feeling so crook. 

In the past 15 or so years, Australias midfielder has always been better with a bald lad in it.

I see it is goals scored before head to head. There are some equations where it's end up the same on goal difference and goals scored. 

I'm hoping that's the case.

Saudis have lost their last 2 games and will be pissed they didnt get a win or draw in the last game. If we win by any score they will be under big pressure. 

Hopefully Japs can snag an early goal. 

--------------------------------------Juric----------------------Cahil------------------------------------------------


---------------------------------------------------Irvine-----------------------------------------------------------------


Gersbach-----------------------Mooy--------------------Milligan---------------------------------------Leckie


----------------Sainsbury-----------------------Spiranovic---------------------Degenek------------------------


------------------------------------------------Vukovic------------------------------------------------------------------


Tom Rogic is the impact player. Bring him in on early in the second half. Probably for Timmy. But makes sure Timmy starts.

That central midfield triangle will be effective, I reckon.

http://ultra.zone/2018-FIFA-World-Cup-qualification-AFC-Third-Round#group=b

A 2:0 win means Saudi only need a 1:0 win.

If we win 3:0 and KSA 1:0 then GD and GS will be the same. H2H comes into play. Just have to keep counting upwards that each side puts some more on their current tally. A 4:1 and 2:1 brings out the same result. So for Australia to have superior goal difference they need to beat Thailand by a margin of 3 goals more than what Saudi beat Japan with.

Kruse has to play, he is our best attacker.

Cahill has to start this one. He'll be a threat at any set play. Putting Milligan in midfield gives us an extra big man at the back for set plays also. We must come out firing and get something early and hopefully the floodgates will open. The last 20 we can hopefully keep getting something. We must try to score for the full 90.

Where? He's not too flash up front. Just not a natural scorer.

Right wing? Maybe. But not to start. Off the bench when Rogic comes on.

Leckie is in better form right now.

This match has to be about more than skill. It has to be about urgency and tempo.

Right now, I trust Leckie more with that (even though Krusey is a better natural attacking footballer, imo).

We need them to force things to happen. If Kruse has the kind of game where he sulks, we will suffer.

Vuck
Deg Spira Sains Gersb
Leckie Mooy Irvine Mabil
Rogic 
Juric

Ryan
Leckie Saints Wright Gersbach
Irvine Millsy
Mooy Rogic
Cahill Maclazza

-------------------mazza ryazza---------------
---lezza--spizza--sazza-gersbazza--------
----------------mizza-mooyza------------------
-----------------------rogizza--------------------
---mabizza--------jurizza-------kruzza-------

Kruse should be played on the RW. And I disagree that Leckie is in better form, Kruse was better than him against Japan.

Ryan
Leckie - Sainsbury - Spiranovic - Gersbach
Milligan
Kruse - Cahill - Mooy - Troisi
Juric

I've got a better shot of throwing one up Margot Robbie than Ange playing a back four lol

Northern Ireland still haven't scored against San Marino and  neither have England in Malta. I suppose it's useless comparing games but these match situations through the mind. 

why were we behind them on the table before the japan game then?  all i could see was that they had a superior "goals for" record.

looks like this is right.  if we have the same points, the same goal difference then it comes down to goals scored then head to head.. 

"If both have identical goal differences and goals scored, then the Socceroos would progress because of their better head-to-head record"
http://www.smh.com.au/sport/soccer/what-the-socceroos-need-to-keep-their-world-cup-dream-alive-20170831-gy8jzi.html

so.  
if the Saudis win 1-0 against japan
they would have +7 GD and 17 GF

and
we win against thailand 3-0
that puts us on +7 GD and 17 GF so it goes to head to head and we are better there.

to guarantee qualification we need to win by 2 goals +1 for every goal that the saudi's score against japan - unless they both score a lot of goals then we need to win by 2 + a better goal difference in the final game.

Were we still playing 433 when we drew 1-1 or had we switched to 3 at the back by that point?

But don't we just need to equal their goal difference and goals scored? Not beat it? As Head to Head will then come into play and we have the superior Head to Head record.

We need to score 4 goals or we are going to heavily rely on luck. If we win 4-1 or 4-0 we ensure that Saudi Arabia must score a minimum of 3 goals or win by 2-0 in the 4-1 example. If they can do that they deserve to go through.