meanwhile I was curious how much difference a few extra points on career batting average makes

So a batsmen that averages 36ish goes over 50 about 25% of the time that means that your top 6 will get 4 scores over 50  over 2 innings around 33% of the time
If your top 6 are averaging 40 than that number jumps to about 44%
If your top 6 are averaging 44 then its about 54% and you are competitive as a team more often than not
if your top 6 are averaging 48 then you are looking at 66% of the time being competitive

a tiny change in averages completely transforms a teams chances 

Has he declined though? Averaged 47.03 the past 2 years from a career average of 48.2, the difference is negligible.

Im a little confused by espn cricinfo
if I click all years for warner it gives me a graph that shows the averages from the last two years much lower. If I click individual years I get some much higher averages and no decline

Though his overall average doesn't really show a major difference, I believe after 74 tests they do represent his play truly. At home he should be first selected, but away from home he shouldn't be. His only centuries away have been against Bangladesh, and in 2014, 3 centuries against SA  and 1 against Pakistan. 2014 was a good year for him. Since then nothing. Even his last series against SA where he dominated previously he averaged 36, acceptable but not great. But because of his dominance at home it keeps him in the side in the hope of a match winning innings that basically has not eventuated especially in recent times, I would go as far as to say that his performance is one of the key reasons Australia has struggled in away tests. When your most experienced test batsman fails, an opening batsmen at well, it becomes difficult for those who may be playing their first tests in some places to succeed with the extra pressure due to a top order collapse.

In his last 25 innings at home which extends back to Nov 2015 he has scored 4 centuries and 6 50's (1 score over 50 every 2.5 innings) and has averaged 55 which is excellent, but this is reduced from when he was averaging nearly 65 previously. But in the same period of time when Shaun Marsh played in many of these home  tests his average was 65, which may give an indication of the quality of the attacks that played. And we all know Shaun Marsh is lucky to be in the side. So has David Warner's form declined? I would say yes and it has been going on since Nov 2015.

The most annoying stat for myself is when I look at opening batsmen, you have slow scoring but effective ones such as Mark Taylor who on average faced nearly 100 deliveries per innings even though his average was 43. Then you have dominating opening batsmen such as Matt Hayden who faced nearly 80 deliveries per innings but averaged over 50. But both types did the most important job of an opener which is to take the shine off the ball, see off the opposition primary bowlers, and allow the following batsmen some release of pressure, which is even less with say a Matt Hayden type because runs are on the board.

With David Warner he is just over 60 deliveries per innings and though he has a good average, on most occasions he is not doing the job of an opener. It is not uncommon for Warner to score 25 in the first 5 overs of an innings and then get out, but it does keep his average up. As a No 6 he is perfection, get the score board moving quickly. The following batsmen are under a deal of pressure because on 50% of the time they are coming in with a new ball and fresh bowlers, and Australia could be even be 2 wickets down. His style of play is a detriment to his fellow opening partner who has to try not to get out, added pressure, and to his team in general.

we could select him only at home if we had the luxury of better players

he averages over 36 away from home which makes him one of our best. His average is 12 pts lower away than it is overall which is a slightly wider split than typical but not outrageously so. I suspect the typical player has an average of 8-10 lower in away games compared to career average

This is a really illuminating post. It is a shame Warner has done so well for so long. I don't want to see him back in the team for instigating ball tampering. I also thought he had a much better average in Australia than overseas.

Answered. I'd like to see Warner dropped altogether. For the first time I've seen Aussie players laughing on the pitch with the opponents. I think Paine has established a much better  team culture than the immature, intense and weak Smith, for complying with Warner in cheating.

It would be difficult to do this with a player. Only select him for domestic cricket.

Although it has been done to an extent with Usman, who was considered not good enough in Asia.

Agree with this.

weirdly though the difference depends on the method. Something is going weird with his espncricinfo page

Totally agree but off the top of my head I can't think of many batsmen in the world that has such a major discrepancy between home and away as Warner does and definitely they haven't played over 70 tests. 60 down to 36. Maybe an Indian batsman due to their poor away record. I have always thought Warner would have been the perfect replacement for Gilchrist style batting at 6. I just don't think he is a great opener. 

When I look at say Joe Burns. I can't help but wonder why a player was given such a limited opportunity, only 5 away tests and was basically told you don't have it. His away record he averaged 35 and his home record was 38. For the record prior to the Bangladesh series which was after Joe Burns was dropped, Warner only averaged around 32 away from home from a lot more games. Joe was given 2 tests in Sri Lanka granted they weren't great but Warner has played 8 in India for a 24 average, yet still retains his spot. When we next play in New Zealand where Warner averages 13, do you think Warner's position would be under threat? Maybe Burns who averages 78 in NZ should replace Warner? Can you really see that happening? I can't. So maybe we actually do have the luxury of better players away from home they just haven't been given the opportunity to prove themselves, but Warner remains an untouchable due to his experience.

Warner's record for a player playing over 70 Tests with such a disparity between his  home and away performances is astonishing! 

Wow! That is amazing.

I thought a small issue with Hodge was that he wasn't a specialist close in fielder like most batters. Current wickets are supposedly batter friendly too, which should improve Marsh's statistics. At 35 Shaun just hasn't got it. His  team-mates, Voges and Rogers, played test cricket at an old age, but they performed well almost immediately.

Agree.The middle is a far better place without the "attack dog". 

If Finch continues the way he started he will make a good replacement for Warner. They are like for like players. Tho Finch would be better down the order against a moving new ball such as he will encounter in England. For mine Paine has the job as long as he wants it.

Warner is as I have always maintained a dead track bully. Give him a moving ball and he will nick it almost two thirds of the time. I have always rated Burns since I first saw him thrashing a white ball around someplace. I followed his off season in England with interest before he made the Bulls side. Yes he does have a better away record than Warner.. but I do not believe he got a ruff deal from selectors. Joe never smashed down the door. Callum Ferguson and Joe Mennie got that ruff deal.. axed after a solitary Test.

khawaja career record is 43 and away is 25. These days it seems typical to have more of a home and away gap. In the 90s and early 00's a lot of our players had no gap

I think we might have this problem more than other teams but I think globally there has been more of a trend for groundsmen to make pitches favorable to the homeside and away wins are getting rarer

I like it when a young cricketer suddenly pops up from nowhere with an eye catching performance. Such was the case for the ACT/NSWC Comets in the Futures League in Canberra yesterday with Cowra-born 21 year old opening bat Henry Hunt announcing himself with a double hundred against the Warriors.. The Blues need an opener to partner Daniel Hughes. 

The average seems right to me from a glance the past 2 years, Warner has always been a bit of a hot and cold player throughout his career.

Who says that is a Warner issue? His IPL teammates and well India absolutely love him. He has been made the scapegoat for this entire thing

ah sorry i was using it wrong

With respect.. blind Freddie can see that. The entity pulling the strings is the BCCI. They refuse to allow India to lose at home so instruct their curators to dish up pitches that suit only the hosts. The sad thing is that the rule makers of our game..the ICC continue to condone this practise.

cant edit again? Before the Asians jump down my throat for racist comments let me add.. the ECB does the same thing. Guess who does not?

South africa perhaps since they are the only team who do well away from home over the last four years

No us. CA panders to the BCCI . Makes me sick. What about the last home  India series.. nothing but flat, slow tracks. Kohli and his mates had a ball. Even the Gabba did not have its usual bounce and carry. The WACA is no more the quickest deck in Australia.

We should not expect anything different this time round as CA wants to ensure 5 days Tests for revenue purposes.

Shane Warne and his Vic bias.  The champion leggie believes Aaron Finch should captain Australia in all three forms of the game.

"Finch is already Australia's Twenty20 captain and is in the running to take over from Tim Paine and be named captain when the ODI squad to take on South Africa next month is announced".
Get off the grass Warnie. Finchy as T20 skipper I go along with.

Jason Gillespie has cautioned over rushing Will Pucovski into Test cricket before "he has proven himself" Dizzy who had a successful coaching stint in England told the Unplayable Podcast that the young tyro must continue to shift the discussion about him from "potential" to "performance".

"Australian selectors like to look at the past 10 first-class innings to get a good gauge of a player's form, and Puckovski is averaging 54.67. He's passed fifty twice, but both times went on with it, scoring 188 against Queensland in February, and 243 against Western Australia last week.

It comes back to the balance between picking on performance and picking on potential."

This is a tricky one. Do CA take a gamble and fast track the kid in say the Test series against Sri Lanka after the India series? I say blood Pucovski this summer while he is young, confident, fearless and run hungry.

 "If given the chance I will well and truly give it my best shot and see where it takes me. If that (Test) opportunity did come, it would be amazing. I’d put everything towards it." the batting prodigy said recently.

Paine is captaining the Test team well.

Why change?

I think Warnie may have something there. If Finch can maintain his place in the side, Smith will never captain again, and if something happens to Paine, to me he may be the logical choice. VC's currently are M Marsh and Hazlewood, both of whom are struggling to consistently produce so really need to concentrate on their own performances especially when Australia are in the field. I'm going to support Warnie on this one. It may be one less stress wicket-keeper Paine has in the field.

If he can maintain his place in the side? You are referring to the Test side I presume? Paine has done a great job holding the reins. Evidently he can handle the stress of both jobs.

Mike have moved to this thread.
My point is Baggers that I don't think there is a problem with the U17 and U19 comp as it stands currently, it hasn't really changed over the years yet we have produced great players from that system. It is totally the mental attitude of the youth.
I do Mike. Our youth are being force fed limited overs cricket. You dont need a technique to play that.. just a good eye. So when do they get tuition in correct technique, develope that mental attitude needed for occupying the crease for hours on end to win or draw a Shield or Test match. Do Premier Cricket clubs have coaches? That would be their only avenue open for working on a poor technique.

Mike another thing past players had open to them to develop their game in all conditions was an off season in England. Has our Ashes decline coincided with the  ECB reducing the percentage of overseas players eligible to play in the Old Dart in our off season. Admittedly there are some that choose to play in the lucrative T20 circus instead. CA should enforce a rule whereby all our Test and Test fringe bats spend at least a season in red ball English County cricket if eligible. Many of our past greats did and most are on record as saying it helped their game.