Ashes First Test


Ashes First Test

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grazorblade
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Decentric - 5 Aug 2019 10:33 AM
RedKat - 5 Aug 2019 10:10 AM

Red ball cricket is different from white  ball cricket, RK.

ATM Warner and Starc may be our best white ball cricketers. It often  does not extrapolate  to red ball cricket.

Also, look at Broad. He didn't play in the WC, but he is still a potent red ball bowler.

warner has the second best average in the side and starc has the 2nd best strike rate for oz bowlers of all time

thats particularly useful if you are trying to take a draw out of the equation

not sure who you drop though

I think there is a weird bias where if someone can hit a slog or doesn't look textbook MCC their technique must be bad

technique does not equal mcc
Edited
4 Months Ago by grazorblade
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baggygreenmania - 5 Aug 2019 10:13 AM
Rumours are that Starc is bowling well currently in the nets and will replace Siddle, a brave move by selectors to do this after Siddle's performance this test.

Please tell me this is a dream. Bowling well in the nets does not mean he will bowl well in a game. He is a liability even tho we have plenty of runs to play with. Starc took a paltry two wickets in the Lords Test in 2015. Johnson 6-Hazlewood 5. I know who I want bowling down the slope.

A lot has changed in the last 4 years Baggers. We all know Hazlewood isn't a strike bowler. Here are the records of the last 10 years of who the bowlers are that can come out and reduce the opposition quickly and effectively, taking 5 wickets in an innings within 20 overs bowled.

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/stats/index.html?ballsmax1=120;ballsmin1=1;ballsval1=balls;bowling_pacespin=1;class=1;filter=advanced;spanmin1=15+Mar+2010;spanval1=span;team=2;template=results;type=bowling;wicketsmin1=5;wicketsval1=wickets

Notice Starc up the top? Hazlewood who has played 44 tests now beats out Bollinger 12 tests and Bird 9 tests, but Cummins 20 tests and Pattinson 17 tests are more effective, Pattinson more so than Cummins who has played more tests. Siddle coming in at No 4 has done OK but as Decentric said he's a specialist for England conditions and some may say is lucky to be selected. So no Hazlewood isn't a strike bowler, but you argue he's in the side as the work-horse. There is a difference between being able to bowl a lot of overs and bowling a lot of overs effectively. Here's the list of the bowlers that have been fortunate enough to be selected for 30 or more tests, that during their time have had to shoulder a big workload of bowling more than 20 overs in an innings many times throughout their careers in the last 50 years. How effective are they?

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/stats/index.html?ballsmin1=120;ballsval1=balls;class=1;filter=advanced;orderby=bowling_strike_rate;qualmax1=1000;qualmin1=30;qualval1=matches;spanmax2=31+mar+2019;spanmin2=1+jan+1977;spanval2=span;team=2;template=results;type=bowling

As you can see Starc can bowl a lot of overs and still be effective taking wickets, where's Josh Hazlewood Ranked? Below Siddle. So if Siddle is to be replaced, why would you replace him with the bowler that can't be as effective in the striking potential, nor as effective when required to bowl a lot of overs, when Starc is better than Siddle in both regards. I wouldn't replace Siddle for the next test anyway, I think he has done enough with bat and ball so far in this test, today will tell. Siddle and Starc can also bat.
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Decentric - 5 Aug 2019 10:25 AM
baggygreenmania - 5 Aug 2019 9:59 AM

Wade didn't  just scrap.

He, and Paine, for a while, flayed the English attack.

It was a pleasure to watch the old  enemy chasing so much leather!

Outside Smith, I'd contend Wade's innings was  the most dominant by an Aussie batter for some time.

What was Wade's strike rate?

I was beddie byes by then. He scrapped and played reckless shots early on. Specially several slog sweeps off the spinners. Had plenty of luck. Once the deck slowed and the quicks lost potency he settled in.
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MikeR - 5 Aug 2019 12:38 PM
baggygreenmania - 5 Aug 2019 10:13 AM

A lot has changed in the last 4 years Baggers. We all know Hazlewood isn't a strike bowler. Here are the records of the last 10 years of who the bowlers are that can come out and reduce the opposition quickly and effectively, taking 5 wickets in an innings within 20 overs bowled.

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/stats/index.html?ballsmax1=120;ballsmin1=1;ballsval1=balls;bowling_pacespin=1;class=1;filter=advanced;spanmin1=15+Mar+2010;spanval1=span;team=2;template=results;type=bowling;wicketsmin1=5;wicketsval1=wickets

Notice Starc up the top? Hazlewood who has played 44 tests now beats out Bollinger 12 tests and Bird 9 tests, but Cummins 20 tests and Pattinson 17 tests are more effective, Pattinson more so than Cummins who has played more tests. Siddle coming in at No 4 has done OK but as Decentric said he's a specialist for England conditions and some may say is lucky to be selected. So no Hazlewood isn't a strike bowler, but you argue he's in the side as the work-horse. There is a difference between being able to bowl a lot of overs and bowling a lot of overs effectively. Here's the list of the bowlers that have been fortunate enough to be selected for 30 or more tests, that during their time have had to shoulder a big workload of bowling more than 20 overs in an innings many times throughout their careers in the last 50 years. How effective are they?

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/stats/index.html?ballsmin1=120;ballsval1=balls;class=1;filter=advanced;orderby=bowling_strike_rate;qualmax1=1000;qualmin1=30;qualval1=matches;spanmax2=31+mar+2019;spanmin2=1+jan+1977;spanval2=span;team=2;template=results;type=bowling

As you can see Starc can bowl a lot of overs and still be effective taking wickets, where's Josh Hazlewood Ranked? Below Siddle. So if Siddle is to be replaced, why would you replace him with the bowler that can't be as effective in the striking potential, nor as effective when required to bowl a lot of overs, when Starc is better than Siddle in both regards. I wouldn't replace Siddle for the next test anyway, I think he has done enough with bat and ball so far in this test, today will tell. Siddle and Starc can also bat.

Said happy for Hazlewood to bowl first change. CA picked him as a strike bowler.  Cummins and Pattinson are the ideal strike bowlers.. pace, aggression. Pommies run scared at a bit of mongrel. Both wont leak runs like Starc. Both can also swing a ball. 

I wanna see Hazlewood make an effort to play in England in our off season. Shud already have been doing it but CA always pick him in the ODIs. 
Edited
4 Months Ago by baggygreenmania
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grazorblade - 5 Aug 2019 12:15 PM
Decentric - 5 Aug 2019 10:33 AM

warner has the second best average in the side and starc has the 2nd best strike rate for oz bowlers of all time

thats particularly useful if you are trying to take a draw out of the equation

not sure who you drop though

I think there is a weird bias where if someone can hit a slog or doesn't look textbook MCC their technique must be bad

technique does not equal mcc

Starc strikes often but something like 55% of his wickets are tail enders. So that stat is misleading. 
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baggygreenmania - 5 Aug 2019 12:46 PM
MikeR - 5 Aug 2019 12:38 PM

Said happy for Hazlewood to bowl first change. Cummins and Pattinson are the ideal opening bowlers.. pace, aggression. Pommies run scared at a bit of mongrel. Both wont leak runs like Starc. Both can also swing a ball. 

I wanna see Hazlewood make an effort to play in England in our off season. Shud already have been doing it but CA always pick him in the ODIs. 

Add him to the list, I'd like to see many of our players do the off season in County cricket, like they have in the past. Nothing beats experience. Patterson, Sangha from your state could do with the experience. Burns Renshaw and Hemphrey are over there at the moment from Qld. Maxwell as well, not many bowlers though. That's where the youth should be trying to play as many games as possible early on, build up strength. Probably explains the bowling injury problems Australia have presently not enough match strength. Lillee played for Northhampton, McGrath played for Worcestershire, Hayden played for Northhampton, Ponting played for Somerset and Surrey, the list goes on, it all helps
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baggygreenmania - 5 Aug 2019 1:01 PM
grazorblade - 5 Aug 2019 12:15 PM

Starc strikes often but something like 55% of his wickets are tail enders. So that stat is misleading. 

31% are tail enders Baggers same percentage as Dale Steyn, (55% where did you get that number from). In a perfect world each batsman would be dismissed 9.1 % of the time, 8-11 batsmen = 4 batsmen (4 x 9.1 = 36.36) But tail enders don't always bat. Nothing at all obscure with Starc's Tail end record. !% difference is only 1 wicket per 100. For Starc 1% is 2 wickets, all bowlers bowl between 26-32% tail-enders including Lillee who was 27% (amounts to Starc taking 8 more than Lillee every 200 wickets, very minimal in terms of those sort of numbers and doesn't mislead in any way. Take the 8 wickets off Starc by all means still a good record.

http://www.howstat.com/cricket/Statistics/Players/PlayerWicketAnalysisGraph.asp?PlayerID=3830

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Saying a bowler only takes tail end wickets is the same as saying a striker only scored tap ins/ penalties. Someone still has to take those wickets and clearing up the tail stops it wagging 

ARNIE= LEGEND

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MikeR - 5 Aug 2019 1:22 PM
baggygreenmania - 5 Aug 2019 1:01 PM

31% are tail enders Baggers same percentage as Dale Steyn, (55% where did you get that number from). In a perfect world each batsman would be dismissed 9.1 % of the time, 8-11 batsmen = 4 batsmen (4 x 9.1 = 36.36) But tail enders don't always bat. Nothing at all obscure with Starc's Tail end record. !% difference is only 1 wicket per 100. For Starc 1% is 2 wickets, all bowlers bowl between 26-32% tail-enders including Lillee who was 27% (amounts to Starc taking 8 more than Lillee every 200 wickets, very minimal in terms of those sort of numbers and doesn't mislead in any way. Take the 8 wickets off Starc by all means still a good record.

http://www.howstat.com/cricket/Statistics/Players/PlayerWicketAnalysisGraph.asp?PlayerID=3830

http://www.howstat.com/cricket/Statistics/Players/PlayerWicketAnalysisGraph.asp?PlayerID=3799

regardless what you say. stats dont lie. Hazlewood has more percentage of top order and middle order batsmen than Starc. I rest my case.
(55% where did you get that number from) sorry that is his tail/4-7 percentage.





Edited
4 Months Ago by baggygreenmania
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RedKat - 5 Aug 2019 11:05 AM
Decentric - 5 Aug 2019 10:33 AM

Warners the second best bat in the side white red or pink ball cricket and dropping him for Marsh and playing our best and third best batsman out of position to accommodate that is such a crazily destabilising idea. Warner posted his third worst return in a test. He'll be back with runs soon. 

If we make any changes it would probably be Hazlewood in for Siddle. Hes a far better bowler in English conditions than Starc. 

How can you be so sure Warner will score red ball runs again?

He  hasn't played any  red ball cricket for well over a year until thisTest at Edgbaston.
Edited
4 Months Ago by Decentric
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RedKat - 5 Aug 2019 1:26 PM
Saying a bowler only takes tail end wickets is the same as saying a striker only scored tap ins/ penalties. Someone still has to take those wickets and clearing up the tail stops it wagging 

Yes. But his best deliveries some 60% are wasted on removing non specialist bats. While just 40% on those that score the bulk of the runs. The top order 1-4 are the blokes who score centuries and usually determine whether a team wins or loses.. 
Edited
4 Months Ago by baggygreenmania
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Decentric - 5 Aug 2019 1:45 PM
RedKat - 5 Aug 2019 11:05 AM

How can you be so sure Warner will score red ball runs again?

He  hasn't played any  red ball cricket for well over a year until thisTest at Edgbaston.

well in the odi he practically played like a test batsman :D
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baggygreenmania - 5 Aug 2019 1:42 PM
MikeR - 5 Aug 2019 1:22 PM





Josh Hazlewood Batsmen 1-7 120 wickets 82 innings = 1.46 top order wickets per innings
Mitchell Starc Batsmen 1-7 144 wickets 97 innings = 1.48 top order wickets per innings 

Starc still beats him. Both useless if you ask me 

Craig McDermott Batsmen 1-7 220 wickets 124 innings = 1.77 top order wickets per innings
Glenn McGrath Batsmen 1-7 421 wickets 243 innings = 1.73 top order wickets per innings 
Just goes to show McGrath wasn't as good as Craig McDermott.

http://www.howstat.com/cricket/Statistics/Players/PlayerWicketAnalysisGraph.asp?PlayerID=1133
http://www.howstat.com/cricket/Statistics/Players/PlayerWicketAnalysisGraph.asp?PlayerID=1125

I rest my case
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MikeR - 5 Aug 2019 2:17 PM
baggygreenmania - 5 Aug 2019 1:42 PM

Josh Hazlewood Batsmen 1-7 120 wickets 82 innings = 1.46 top order wickets per innings
Mitchell Starc Batsmen 1-7 144 wickets 97 innings = 1.48 top order wickets per innings 

Starc still beats him. Both useless if you ask me 

Craig McDermott Batsmen 1-7 220 wickets 124 innings = 1.77 top order wickets per innings
Glenn McGrath Batsmen 1-7 421 wickets 243 innings = 1.73 top order wickets per innings 
Just goes to show McGrath wasn't as good as Craig McDermott.

http://www.howstat.com/cricket/Statistics/Players/PlayerWicketAnalysisGraph.asp?PlayerID=1133
http://www.howstat.com/cricket/Statistics/Players/PlayerWicketAnalysisGraph.asp?PlayerID=1125

I rest my case

Lol Mike. Thanks for the chuckle. 



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grazorblade - 5 Aug 2019 2:10 PM
Decentric - 5 Aug 2019 1:45 PM

well in the odi he practically played like a test batsman :D

And to his eternal credit he showed a sense of humour when reacting on the boundary to the Barmies’ latest ditty

:sung to the tune of Pink Floyd’s Another Brick in the Wall:

He still needs some education,
He still needs some self-control,
No gold sandpaper in his pocket Warner, leave those balls alone
Hey! Warner! leave those balls alone
All in all he’s just another cheat like them all
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This is hardly confidence building news. Statistically, the fourth innings of a match is Lyons weakest @34.12. Why does that not surprise me. Having said that, there are some footmarks for him to bowl into.. that will help. I expect Smith to have a trundle and Head. 

Who hates Nine. If you are unable to stay up and watch all the days plays.. tuff as Nine will not even give us 30 min hilight package.
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baggygreenmania - 5 Aug 2019 7:46 PM
This is hardly confidence building news. Statistically, the fourth innings of a match is Lyons weakest @34.12. Why does that not surprise me. Having said that, there are some footmarks for him to bowl into.. that will help. I expect Smith to have a trundle and Head. 

Who hates Nine. If you are unable to stay up and watch all the days plays.. tuff as Nine will not even give us 30 min hilight package.

You can watch each day's highlights here.

https://www.9now.com.au/the-ashes-test-cricket

You need to log into 9 watch now, on your browser. 

You can select the highlights for anyday.
Edited
4 Months Ago by Paddles
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baggygreenmania - 5 Aug 2019 7:46 PM
This is hardly confidence building news. Statistically, the fourth innings of a match is Lyons weakest @34.12. Why does that not surprise me. Having said that, there are some footmarks for him to bowl into.. that will help. I expect Smith to have a trundle and Head. 

Who hates Nine. If you are unable to stay up and watch all the days plays.. tuff as Nine will not even give us 30 min hilight package.

Nine is shocking, Baggers. 
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grazorblade - 5 Aug 2019 2:10 PM
Decentric - 5 Aug 2019 1:45 PM

well in the odi he practically played like a test batsman :D

Shame he hasn’t played like Test batter in this Test! 
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TokyoPom - 5 Aug 2019 6:53 PM
grazorblade - 5 Aug 2019 2:10 PM

And to his eternal credit he showed a sense of humour when reacting on the boundary to the Barmies’ latest ditty

:sung to the tune of Pink Floyd’s Another Brick in the Wall:

He still needs some education,
He still needs some self-control,
No gold sandpaper in his pocket Warner, leave those balls alone
Hey! Warner! leave those balls alone
All in all he’s just another cheat like them all

LOL!
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Lovely ball that reared off a length from Cummins. 

Burns caught at about gully I think. 

Really annoying 9 showing blasted ads rather than the replay! 
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Pattinson seems to have regained some pace at the start of the innings. 

He looks threatening early in the innings with the new ball and when he is fresh. 
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Good to see Cummins varying the angle when he bowls - wide and close to the stumps. 
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Umpire gave Root out LBW Patto. 

Replay showed it was missing leg. 
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Poms in strife at 1-25. 
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Good off drive for 4 from Root. 
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Brew - 5 Aug 2019 8:36 PM
Poms in strife at 1-25. 

Remember Monty & Jimmy in Cardiff
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Another dismissal overruled with the replay after Root snicked a ball originally given out LBW off Siddle. 
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GOAT getting turn,  bounce, edges and close LBWs. 

Poor England! 

A day of hard work keeping GOAT out beckons. 



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Paine wrong footed as Siddle’s ball shaped to go down leg side, but was snicked to off. 

He had had to change direction with no drive off his feet, 

gGood over from Siddle! 

GOAT looks ominous. 
GO


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