I don't know if this has been posted here before, but an interesting article on the value of rights going forward.
https://www.afr.com/companies/media-and-marketing/the-game-has-changed-for-australian-sports-20190613-p51x90

Its paywalled 

Thanks. You can almost say ratings have halved since that time. The impact of online.

Its quite clear that the big issue is less and less people are subscribing to Fox.
The reason why ratings are dropping across the board is less subscribers.
The same is happening but at a slower bleed on FTA.
But  i doubt  this means the end of cash for sports.Just a different way of valuing advertising on different digital media.
What is the real value these days of an advertiser paying  to have advertisements on a 90+ minute sports broadcast or  short sharp highlights on Youtube /Insta or another streaming platform,where the advertisement keeps appearing for short intervals?
Does a highlights reel of goals or saves offer as much bang for buck as a full game for the goldfish attentive digital age person?
Surely people are looking at this now for both sports and advertisers.

Ratings for AFLW Week 3

StK v Melb FTA: N/A, Fox: 18k
Dogs/Blues FTA: 41k (Syd/Mel/Bri), Fox 28k
Suns/Lions FTA: 14k (Bri only), Fox 22k
Dockers/Pies FTA: 62k (Mel/Adl/Per), Fox 27k
Giants/Eagles FTA: 33k (Syd/Per), Fox N/R
Tigers/Roos FTA: 69k (all cities), Fox N/R
Cats/Crows FTA: 22k (Adl only), Fox N/R

Season FTA average: 36k(-35.4%)
Season FTA aggregate: 719k (+7.6%)
Season Fox average: 32k
Season Fox aggregate: 538k
(too much early data missing in 2019 for accurate Fox comparison)


Ratings for Marsh Series Week 1 on Fox

Saints/Hawks 97k
Bulldogs/Roos 64k
Suns/Cats 62k
Demons/Crows 48k
Lions/Power 51k

so everyone is on kayo? 

I disagree.  I think it means significantly less cash for sports.  AFL and NRL are ridiculously overvalued.

My view is that the streaming services have accelerated a long standing decline in interest in sport, particulalrly on tv, in much the same way as digital media ended the huge recording contracts for rock bands.  Rock and pop and hip hop have increasingly become about live shows, and I suggest the same trend is going to hit sport.

I think we will see the fragmentation of sports viewing, in that people will have a particular sport they watch and little interest in others, so for me it will just be football. People will want to pay less and only for what they want, as opposed to the Fox model of paying lots and getting a big variety. For this reason I think it is important to identify and appeal to our core audience. So short term there may be less money from TV but if we can create a strong niche and place it into a global network, we should have a bright future, particularly compared to those that rely on a captive mainstream audience and no global interest.

Not true

The ratings sample is done with 1500 boxes. If 750 households unsubscribe, they are replaced by another 750 households with boxes. Its also fair to reason that the samples are done on households with access all channels. This means that the method, statistical inference, sample size and population projection used this season is exactly the same as last season

The data doesn't tell you how many people have left Foxtel to watch Kayo instead and its unlikely Fox would have reduced the overall population projection given their recent stats say subscription numbers are largely the same, and streaming is an addition

So the question is: Why have the ratings dropped for the A League with those who have access to Fox Sports?

And this isn't just seen in the ratings, but also attendances, hype and interest in general

Live sport may not be as important to the next generation which is why we are starting to see a trend in sports ratings dropping across the board. Habits change over time. But despite this the changes to the A League ratings have been radical - almost 50% on both subscription and FTA. There is no other logical conclusion than people are tired of the A League

So how do we turn this around? More derbies, one marquee player paid for by the FFA, consolidation and denial

Agree completely.

I'm free time-poor and certainly it's only football for me.  Kayo is an improvement on Fox but I still pay for a lot of stuff I don't want.

The universe estimate for population is published every quarter by OzTam for national, 5cities FTA and STV.  Interestingly since Kayo was released the universe estimate of population living in a home with STV has gone down from about 7.9m to 7.1m or about 10%.  In that same time the percentage of homes with STV has gone down from 33.9% to 29.7% of total homes.

The sample size remains the same, but published ratings figures take into account the total number of subscribers dont they?  But do they take into account the number that have Fox Sports? No one seems to be considering the possibility that people are keeping Fox, but dropping the sports package for Kayo.  Number of subscribers doesn't go down, but number watching sports does.

My wife complained when I got Fox, mainly for sports, but she now watches Fox more than I do, and she isn't watching sport.  Fox actually has some decent TV and Movie content, and in some respect, and though it isnt fashionable to say so, its content still stacks up pretty well to Netflix.

A leagues issue, it seems to have dropped a bigger proportion of its audience than other sports, so, are A league fans more or less likely to get Kayo than AFL or NRL fans?

And saying, we have a younger fan base, based on an old survey of American sports fans isn't the answer.  I haven't seen anything to really indicate this is true in Australia, or at least not to the extent its going to significantly distort viewing habits.

During the summer period there’s something like 350,000 to 400,000 people on Kayo. 

Is it possible a large number are there because Kayo has a lot of sport, and is relatively cheap?  I would also dispute your central assumption that everybody who got Kayo for AFL or NRL promptly unsubscribed when the season was over.  Certainly some did, but I seriously doubt most did.

While there might be some HAL, a lot of them will have stayed on for the cricket - its part of the problem Fox has. They paid big bucks for the cricket, but the fans of both major winter sports, and rugby union cross over to Cricket in the summer, so theres likely a nil to minimal increase in suscribers as a result. 

https://www.channelnews.com.au/optus-wont-bid-for-rugby-despite-lions-tour-inclusion-claim-insiders/

Optus Won’t Bid For Rugby Despite Lions Tour Inclusion Claim Insiders

By David Richards| 17 Feb 2020

Optus will not take on Rugby Australia according to sources despite the inclusion of the 2025 British and Irish Lions tour in RA’s next broadcast deal.

Sources at the carrier have told ChannelNews that Rugby is seen as being in decline and “does not make sense” and that what is happening right now is “posturing” by management.

“Rugby Union in Australia is on a death roll attendance is down, few people are watching games yet Rugby Australia wants broadcasters to splash the cash for a code that is seriously struggling” said one insider.

Foxtel and News Corp who currently broadcast Rugby have moved to rein in costs associated with buying and delivering sports rights in Australia in an effort to get a better return on investment.

I think Rugby Union is going to have to do something really radical and start broadcasting their own games - sounds like nobody is interested at all.

Could be a warning sign for the A-League in future years too.

We still have a couiple of years up our sleeve, and it's more likely that Optus will have a strategy for being the home of all football in Australia, so I don't think the current rugby malaise will impact on football.

I think that might be the future of the smaller sports (maybe even all sports) as it gives you more flexibility when it comes to choosing platforms. 

I actually saw an commercial on tv for an A League match last night.  

A 10% adjustment to the universal population vs a 50% drop in ratings

It will be impossible to proportion the 1500 households to the variety of possible subscription packages, as well as population demographic. Its likely the 1500 households in the sample have access to all channels. And it will take incredible number crunching to then proportion this to the number of subscriptions each channel has. Especially since people can unsubscribe one month and subscribe the next

Ratings aren't intended to be literal. The A League rating figures are an indication of its popularity among those who have access to it along with all other channels. A drop in ratings typically means a decline in interest

How are tv ratings treated with any credibility when they are collected in such an archaic manner?

I can setup my iPhone to be tracked anywhere in the world yet we still can’t tell more specifically who is watching what. It’s a joke.

Industry playing catch up.

I'm not sure where else to put this, but we often talk about media deals on this thread, so I thought this was a good spot.

This is relevant to Australian football fans because it's about Amazon and sporting content they are producing for their streaming service, including docos of various European football clubs.  At the moment they are looking at the AFL, but who knows where this will lead more broadly.

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/amazon-want-all-afl-clubs-in-documentary-series-20200225-p544ao.html

Amazon want all AFL clubs in documentary series

Amazon wants all 18 clubs to be part of a football documentary series in a deal with the AFL and McGuire Media.

The move comes as premiership coach Adam Simpson confirmed that West Coast had been in talks with the tech giants, with ruckman Nic Naitanui the focus.

The global streaming company are still negotiating the deal – which is yet to be signed – that they are hoping will involve all 18 clubs over three seasons.

...

Behind-the-scene sporting documentaries are growing in popularity, particularly when the content is on demand on streaming platforms.

On top of the Six Dreams series on Amazon Prime, their UK soccer series will follow defending premier league champions Manchester City and Netflix filmed a documentary on Italy’s most prestigious club Juventus, First team.

South Melbourne FC, one of the clubs heavily involved in a push for a national second division, registered over 10,000 Facebook views on NPL Victoria’s live stream of their game against Eastern Lions on Sunday. The YouTube view count for the match was over 5,300

That's over 15000 voewers
https://www.soccerscene.com.au...
2nd division model right here

https://www.soccerscene.com.au/soccer-news/football-victoria-in-talks-with-optus-sport-and-kayo/

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/aflw-ratings-up-on-fox-down-on-seven-20200226-p544i5.html

the fundamental problem for iHAL is that the AFLW tv deal is worth $2.5M per year (Fox and 7 combined, ref link below) and their ratings are better than iHAL which is costing Fox $60M per year. Suggest iHAL is about to get a massive haircut

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/all-aflw-games-live-on-tv-under-four-year-deal-20181213-p50lz4.html

It's irrelevant though, how many people would subscribe purely for AFLW is what matters and I would say, not many.

based on current ratings, there'd be even less subscribing for iHAL