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paladisious
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Actually, it seems ABC 24 will cover it.
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paladisious
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Debate kicks off at 11am AEST if I have my conversion right, this stream seem to work here: https://www.cbsnews.com/live/
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paulbagzFC
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Remember that electoral college can vote however they choose, they can break from the vote of the people if they want. -PB
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patjennings
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Right - the polls are favouring Biden now before the debate - with them fully allocated it is 353 - 185.
So before the first debate lets put down the predicted electoral college figures to see what affect it will have and review it in a week. These are base on 538 amalgam of polls (not commenting on whether that is the best to used)
Biden has 178 with a margin of greater than 15%. Trump has 60.
Biden has 21 with a margin between 10-15% with an average margin of 11.8%. Trump has 11 with an average margin of 14%
Biden has 76 with a margin between 5-10% with an average margin of 7.2%, Trump has 45 with an average margin of 7.8%
Biden has 78 with a margin between 0-5% with an average margin of 2.3%. Trump has 69 with an average margin of 2.2%
This time next week - I'll put up the same breakdown and we can see whether the debate has had any affect and if it does - how much and in which direction.
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Carlito
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+x+xColour me shocked he paid no tax, same could be said of any billionaire. Highly doubt this will achieve anything at all other than confirming what everyone already suspected. Meh. -PB It’s the New York Times brah, the American equivalent of the Betoota Advocate. The US mainstream press has taken a dark turn in recent times, reporting outright lies and completely cooked allegations, under the auspices of “anonymous sources”. They will say and do anything to get rid of Trump. I mean after the fake Russian collusion clusterfuck why would anyone believe anything left wing fake news outlets have to say? Even if they were true, sadly the source is so lacking credibility that it renders the allegations as completely uncredible, so unless they’re willing to divulge their sources or source material, it’s best just to throw it in the bullshit bin. Meanwhile Joe Biden’s corrupt son and corrupt dealings with Ukarine while his daddy was VP continue to be ignored. When you brah you loose the argument. Jesus Christ man grow the f up and start arguing like you used to and not Strachan and speak like a bloody teenager
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Burztur
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+x+xColour me shocked he paid no tax, same could be said of any billionaire. Highly doubt this will achieve anything at all other than confirming what everyone already suspected. Meh. -PB It’s the New York Times brah, the American equivalent of the Betoota Advocate. The US mainstream press has taken a dark turn in recent times, reporting outright lies and completely cooked allegations, under the auspices of “anonymous sources”. They will say and do anything to get rid of Trump. I mean after the fake Russian collusion clusterfuck why would anyone believe anything left wing fake news outlets have to say? Even if they were true, sadly the source is so lacking credibility that it renders the allegations as completely uncredible, so unless they’re willing to divulge their sources or source material, it’s best just to throw it in the bullshit bin. Meanwhile Joe Biden’s corrupt son and corrupt dealings with Ukarine while his daddy was VP continue to be ignored. Why doesn’t Trump release his tax returns then? You can release it during an audit as well. That is no excuse. As for the Biden Ukraine link, I thought the Republicans were investigating but then shut it down when they realised it was actually one of their own.
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rusty
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+xColour me shocked he paid no tax, same could be said of any billionaire. Highly doubt this will achieve anything at all other than confirming what everyone already suspected. Meh. -PB It’s the New York Times brah, the American equivalent of the Betoota Advocate. The US mainstream press has taken a dark turn in recent times, reporting outright lies and completely cooked allegations, under the auspices of “anonymous sources”. They will say and do anything to get rid of Trump. I mean after the fake Russian collusion clusterfuck why would anyone believe anything left wing fake news outlets have to say? Even if they were true, sadly the source is so lacking credibility that it renders the allegations as completely uncredible, so unless they’re willing to divulge their sources or source material, it’s best just to throw it in the bullshit bin. Meanwhile Joe Biden’s corrupt son and corrupt dealings with Ukarine while his daddy was VP continue to be ignored.
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Carlito
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+xColour me shocked he paid no tax, same could be said of any billionaire. Highly doubt this will achieve anything at all other than confirming what everyone already suspected. Meh. -PB Why he fought hard to stop this to come out .He is a typcial shyster . But sky news and fox try to make it palatable
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paulbagzFC
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Colour me shocked he paid no tax, same could be said of any billionaire. Highly doubt this will achieve anything at all other than confirming what everyone already suspected. Meh. -PB
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paulbagzFC
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+x+x+xThe other point with the Supreme Court and the election is a major pointer to the Republicans winning the presidency. Does Trump opt for Barbara Lagoa from Florida to try to lock in Florida or does he go to Amy Coney Barrett who is the Evangelicals choice. Would be Amy, he's already won over the Evangelicals, pandering to them more won't help and he needs to counter Bloombergs advertising spree in that state. -PB So Lagoa - to win Florida And there it is. -PB
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Burztur
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+x+x+x+x+x+x+xThe other point with the Supreme Court and the election is a major pointer to the Republicans winning the presidency. Does Trump opt for Barbara Lagoa from Florida to try to lock in Florida or does he go to Amy Coney Barrett who is the Evangelicals choice. Would be Amy, he's already won over the Evangelicals, pandering to them more won't help and he needs to counter Bloombergs advertising spree in that state. -PB So Lagoa - to win Florida Has to be. If Trump doesn't win Florida and its 25 votes he's pretty much sunk, surely. Yep - I can't think of a Republican that lost Florida and won the presidency. Clinton did it for the Dems but not in my memory for the Republicans California and NY going to the Dems basically means that the GOP need Texas and Florida to balance it out. The fact that Texas could go to the Dems makes it interesting as well. North Carolina is slightly Democrat as well and Trump is only marginally ahead in Georgia, Iowa and Ohio. So many tight races. This could end up anywhere from a comfortable Trump win to a heavy Trump defeat. Yup. The Supreme Court nomination also changes the whole complexion again. Which voter base turns out more?
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patjennings
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+x+x+x+x+x+xThe other point with the Supreme Court and the election is a major pointer to the Republicans winning the presidency. Does Trump opt for Barbara Lagoa from Florida to try to lock in Florida or does he go to Amy Coney Barrett who is the Evangelicals choice. Would be Amy, he's already won over the Evangelicals, pandering to them more won't help and he needs to counter Bloombergs advertising spree in that state. -PB So Lagoa - to win Florida Has to be. If Trump doesn't win Florida and its 25 votes he's pretty much sunk, surely. Yep - I can't think of a Republican that lost Florida and won the presidency. Clinton did it for the Dems but not in my memory for the Republicans California and NY going to the Dems basically means that the GOP need Texas and Florida to balance it out. The fact that Texas could go to the Dems makes it interesting as well. North Carolina is slightly Democrat as well and Trump is only marginally ahead in Georgia, Iowa and Ohio. So many tight races. This could end up anywhere from a comfortable Trump win to a heavy Trump defeat.
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paulbagzFC
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+x+x+x+x+x+xThe other point with the Supreme Court and the election is a major pointer to the Republicans winning the presidency. Does Trump opt for Barbara Lagoa from Florida to try to lock in Florida or does he go to Amy Coney Barrett who is the Evangelicals choice. Would be Amy, he's already won over the Evangelicals, pandering to them more won't help and he needs to counter Bloombergs advertising spree in that state. -PB So Lagoa - to win Florida Has to be. If Trump doesn't win Florida and its 25 votes he's pretty much sunk, surely. Yep - I can't think of a Republican that lost Florida and won the presidency. Clinton did it for the Dems but not in my memory for the Republicans Only twice has a candidate lost Florida but won nationally (Clinton in 1992 and JFK in 1960) since way back when Calvin Coolidge did in 1924: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_elections_in_FloridaNow that they have 29 votes (not 25, my bad) it's surely a must-win state, especially for the Republicans. Polling is tight, but leaning towards Biden: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Florida Florida has Bloomberg dropping shitloads of money on advertising too -PB
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paladisious
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+x+x+x+x+xThe other point with the Supreme Court and the election is a major pointer to the Republicans winning the presidency. Does Trump opt for Barbara Lagoa from Florida to try to lock in Florida or does he go to Amy Coney Barrett who is the Evangelicals choice. Would be Amy, he's already won over the Evangelicals, pandering to them more won't help and he needs to counter Bloombergs advertising spree in that state. -PB So Lagoa - to win Florida Has to be. If Trump doesn't win Florida and its 25 votes he's pretty much sunk, surely. Yep - I can't think of a Republican that lost Florida and won the presidency. Clinton did it for the Dems but not in my memory for the Republicans Only twice has a candidate lost Florida but won nationally (Clinton in 1992 and JFK in 1960) since way back when Calvin Coolidge did in 1924: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_elections_in_FloridaNow that they have 29 votes (not 25, my bad) it's surely a must-win state, especially for the Republicans. Polling is tight, but leaning towards Biden: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Florida
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Burztur
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Burztur
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+x+x+x+x+xThe other point with the Supreme Court and the election is a major pointer to the Republicans winning the presidency. Does Trump opt for Barbara Lagoa from Florida to try to lock in Florida or does he go to Amy Coney Barrett who is the Evangelicals choice. Would be Amy, he's already won over the Evangelicals, pandering to them more won't help and he needs to counter Bloombergs advertising spree in that state. -PB So Lagoa - to win Florida Has to be. If Trump doesn't win Florida and its 25 votes he's pretty much sunk, surely. Yep - I can't think of a Republican that lost Florida and won the presidency. Clinton did it for the Dems but not in my memory for the Republicans California and NY going to the Dems basically means that the GOP need Texas and Florida to balance it out. The fact that Texas could go to the Dems makes it interesting as well.
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patjennings
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+x+x+x+xThe other point with the Supreme Court and the election is a major pointer to the Republicans winning the presidency. Does Trump opt for Barbara Lagoa from Florida to try to lock in Florida or does he go to Amy Coney Barrett who is the Evangelicals choice. Would be Amy, he's already won over the Evangelicals, pandering to them more won't help and he needs to counter Bloombergs advertising spree in that state. -PB So Lagoa - to win Florida Has to be. If Trump doesn't win Florida and its 25 votes he's pretty much sunk, surely. Yep - I can't think of a Republican that lost Florida and won the presidency. Clinton did it for the Dems but not in my memory for the Republicans
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paulbagzFC
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+xAnyone interested in the machinations of us politics should watch Planet America on the ABC. They ran a bit last night on appointments to the courts. Mind boggling stuff. McConnell blocked 100+ appointments in Obama's term so if a Republican was elected they could stack the courts. The corruption, and overt corruption at that, in America is sick. Yup and they hypocrisy lol PA last night shows why they're in such a mad rush to get that justice in place, throw in Trumps comments about the mail in votes and he's angling to basically not go if he loses "When asked about whether he will allow a peaceful transition of power if he loses the election, Trump doubled down on his anger toward mail-in ballots. “Get rid of the ballots and there will be a continuation. The ballots are out of control.”" -PB
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sydneyfc1987
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+xAnyone interested in the machinations of us politics should watch Planet America on the ABC. They ran a bit last night on appointments to the courts. Mind boggling stuff. McConnell blocked 100+ appointments in Obama's term so if a Republican was elected they could stack the courts. The corruption, and overt corruption at that, in America is sick. Watched Vice last night. I know its only a movie, and a movie that borders on black comedy at that, but it really does highlight what an evil puppeteer Cheney was, responsible for the diabolical mess in the middle east. All these things seem to have been forgotten in the age of Trump.
(VAR) IS NAVY BLUE
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Muz
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Anyone interested in the machinations of us politics should watch Planet America on the ABC. They ran a bit last night on appointments to the courts. Mind boggling stuff. McConnell blocked 100+ appointments in Obama's term so if a Republican was elected they could stack the courts. The corruption, and overt corruption at that, in America is sick.
Member since 2008.
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paladisious
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+x+x+x+x+x+x+xI notice Trump is evens with Biden on Sportsbet. Looking even more likely the orange man will win again. Does anyone seriously think that won't happen? The only thing I haven't decided on is if this is the end of democracy in the US but they're definitely on that decline. So much cronyism and gerrymandering. My team wins- This is Democracy at work* My team loses-This is the end of Democracy. * Democracy manifest Ah yes, I see that you know your judo well. What is the charge? :D :D :D Enjoying a meal. Was it non-succulent or succulent?
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paladisious
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+x+x+xThe other point with the Supreme Court and the election is a major pointer to the Republicans winning the presidency. Does Trump opt for Barbara Lagoa from Florida to try to lock in Florida or does he go to Amy Coney Barrett who is the Evangelicals choice. Would be Amy, he's already won over the Evangelicals, pandering to them more won't help and he needs to counter Bloombergs advertising spree in that state. -PB So Lagoa - to win Florida Has to be. If Trump doesn't win Florida and its 25 votes he's pretty much sunk, surely.
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Captain Haddock
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+x+x+x+x+x+xI notice Trump is evens with Biden on Sportsbet. Looking even more likely the orange man will win again. Does anyone seriously think that won't happen? The only thing I haven't decided on is if this is the end of democracy in the US but they're definitely on that decline. So much cronyism and gerrymandering. My team wins- This is Democracy at work* My team loses-This is the end of Democracy. * Democracy manifest Ah yes, I see that you know your judo well. What is the charge? :D :D :D Enjoying a meal.
There are only two intellectually honest debate tactics: (a) pointing out errors or omissions in your opponent’s facts, or (b) pointing out errors or omissions in your opponent’s logic. All other debate tactics are intellectually dishonest - John T. Reed
The Most Popular Presidential Candidate Of All Time (TM) cant go to a sports stadium in the country he presides over. Figure that one out...
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patjennings
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+x+xThe other point with the Supreme Court and the election is a major pointer to the Republicans winning the presidency. Does Trump opt for Barbara Lagoa from Florida to try to lock in Florida or does he go to Amy Coney Barrett who is the Evangelicals choice. Would be Amy, he's already won over the Evangelicals, pandering to them more won't help and he needs to counter Bloombergs advertising spree in that state. -PB So Lagoa - to win Florida
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Burztur
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Dems should pander to Trump and get him to run it like the apprentice.
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paulbagzFC
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+xThe other point with the Supreme Court and the election is a major pointer to the Republicans winning the presidency. Does Trump opt for Barbara Lagoa from Florida to try to lock in Florida or does he go to Amy Coney Barrett who is the Evangelicals choice. Would be Amy, he's already won over the Evangelicals, pandering to them more won't help and he needs to counter Bloombergs advertising spree in that state. -PB
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patjennings
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The other point with the Supreme Court and the election is a major pointer to the Republicans winning the presidency. Does Trump opt for Barbara Lagoa from Florida to try to lock in Florida or does he go to Amy Coney Barrett who is the Evangelicals choice.
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Burztur
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+x+xBecause Roberts CJ is still applying the law (see the recent DACA decision).
The Arizona special election only has the ability for the Dems to pair back one vote from 52-48.
If the Dems want to play dirty and stall, they can by running impeachment articles. Pelosi has refused to rule that out, so the Dems could jam the Senate with procedure until January (if they wanted to). That is true but already 3 GOP senators are flagging they don't want a vote until the new senate is convened in January. They are Sen.Lisa Murkowski, Sen Susan Collins and Sen. Sherrod Brown. Trump will definitely name someone If those Senators follow throw (big if) the nomination will not be heard before the election. That will definitely energise the GOP but may well conversely also energise the Democrats because of the ACA. McConnell will try to bring it on during the lame duck sittings. 1) If the GOP hold the Senate after the election and Trump wins the presidency then it will be pushed through. 2) If Biden wins but has a hostile senate then we get to see if the 3 senators stay true to their word - especially if they remain the crucial votes. 3) If Biden wins and the Dems win the Senate then I think those senators will honour their commitments. The other spanner is now the Dems are considering running impeachment hearings to stall. It would be interesting to see it happen.
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patjennings
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+x+x+xI notice Trump is evens with Biden on Sportsbet. Looking even more likely the orange man will win again. You realise that betting odds are effected by the number of bets placed on the various outcomes? Lots of bets being placed on Trump to win will lower the odds being offered for a Trump win. Yes and no. Odds are generally reflective of the relative posabilities of outcomes. Bookmakers walk a fine line between setting odds that entice gamblers but don't cost them money if they lose. Hence for $1.00: Trump is paying $1.91 and Biden is paying $1.91. . Biden has 212 electoral votes almost certainly. Trump has 71. That means 255 are up for grabs. I can get Trump up to 179 fairly easily but that still leaves 147 up for grabs. Throw in the RBG effect which no-one really knows how it will land and you get why it is even money.
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Muz
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+x+xI notice Trump is evens with Biden on Sportsbet. Looking even more likely the orange man will win again. You realise that betting odds are effected by the number of bets placed on the various outcomes? Lots of bets being placed on Trump to win will lower the odds being offered for a Trump win. Yes and no. Odds are generally reflective of the relative possibilities of outcomes. Bookmakers walk a fine line between setting odds that entice gamblers but don't cost them money if they lose. Hence for $1.00: Trump is paying $1.91 and Biden is paying $1.91. .
Member since 2008.
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