Coronavirus Megathread


Coronavirus Megathread

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sydneyfc1987
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AJF - 26 Aug 2020 10:11 PM
sydneyfc1987 - 26 Aug 2020 8:26 PM
oops!! edumacate yourself, dont be a .....

sheep walking | Sheep following each other er.. Sheepishly -… | Flickr

The irony calling people sheep when literally EVERY conspiracy theorist on social media posts memes with sheep. Jesus tap-dancing Christ.

AJF - 26 Aug 2020 10:30 PM
Not saying there is a Bill Gates trying to microchip us all level of conspiracy, but inflating figures to make the problem scarier than it actually is does make the general public more compliant, isnt that right SFC1987? 

Yep. Let's totally devastate the Australian economy to make people slightly more likley to obey the law. Makes total sense.




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pv4 - 27 Aug 2020 12:15 PM
AJF - 27 Aug 2020 12:10 PM

For the most part, smoking is a choice. 

Most people do not have the luxury of simply choosing not to get COVID. 

Actually, dont believe that statement is 100% correct. People understand that there is a risk associated with smoking and they can make that choice. Same cant be said about Covid where there is no choice, particularly for the demographic least affected by it (the young and healthy).

But smokers dont spread smoking like Covid you say, but they do expose others to their second hand smoke (you know the stuff smokers exhale) which has also been shown to cause cancer. How much choice do non smokers have in the city where there are smokers on the footpath, or in beer gardens at pubs? At the park? You breathe that smoke in whether you like it or not and after a while that exposure could kill you through no choice of your own.

So back to original point, why are deaths by one preventable means more important than deaths by another?









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sydneyfc1987 - 27 Aug 2020 2:02 PM
AJF - 26 Aug 2020 10:11 PM

The irony calling people sheep when literally EVERY conspiracy theorist on social media posts memes with sheep. Jesus tap-dancing Christ.

AJF - 26 Aug 2020 10:30 PM

Yep. Let's totally devastate the Australian economy to make people slightly more likley to obey the law. Makes total sense.



The Victorian CMO supports my point that not all deaths reported as being Covid related are actually caused by Covid, whereas all you have is your opinion on conspiracy theories, I know which one I have more faith in...









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NicCarBel - 27 Aug 2020 12:34 PM
AJF - 27 Aug 2020 12:08 PM

I do understand the causality. I was just making sure you do, based off that article you posted.

sure you do champ, sure you do









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food for thought



https://www.theage.com.au/national/coronavirus-updates-live-victoria-s-hotel-quarantine-inquiry-resumes-northern-sydney-club-closes-after-positive-covid-19-case-australian-death-toll-stands-at-549-20200826-p55pjy.html








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AJF - 27 Aug 2020 2:35 PM
pv4 - 27 Aug 2020 12:15 PM

Actually, dont believe that statement is 100% correct. People understand that there is a risk associated with smoking and they can make that choice. Same cant be said about Covid where there is no choice, particularly for the demographic least affected by it (the young and healthy).

But smokers dont spread smoking like Covid you say, but they do expose others to their second hand smoke (you know the stuff smokers exhale) which has also been shown to cause cancer. How much choice do non smokers have in the city where there are smokers on the footpath, or in beer gardens at pubs? At the park? You breathe that smoke in whether you like it or not and after a while that exposure could kill you through no choice of your own.

So back to original point, why are deaths by one preventable means more important than deaths by another?

Those places you mentioned that people are allowed to smoke are a bunch of things government have done to mitigate risk to the public. Don't see it as much different to COVID restrictions. Absolutely the government do more about smoking but that doesn't mean that COVID should be ignored.




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This is a surprising but very welcome article https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/no-increase-to-victorian-suicide-rate-during-covid-19-pandemic-20200827-p55pr9.html

I hope that it's similar across the country and stays that way.

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What I think about when I see this is according to my brief Google, Britain has just over twice as much population as Australia. Yet if I believe those COVID stats posted, has 4.5 times the amount of daily cases as Australia. Google also shows me Australia's case numbers are down compared to 30 days ago, whereas Britain's is up. 

I summarise this as a fear Britain are heading for even worse still. 

I am unsure what you were hoping people would conclude from it. 

Worth noting I didn't click the article, just read your posted image. 
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AJF - 27 Aug 2020 2:35 PM
pv4 - 27 Aug 2020 12:15 PM

But smokers dont spread smoking like Covid you say, but they do expose others to their second hand smoke (you know the stuff smokers exhale) which has also been shown to cause cancer. How much choice do non smokers have in the city where there are smokers on the footpath, or in beer gardens at pubs? At the park? You breathe that smoke in whether you like it or not and after a while that exposure could kill you through no choice of your own.

After you posting this, I would be very interested to see the statistics of people to have deceased from cancer developed from second hand smoke only, and then to compare that to deaths from COVID. Genuinely interested to see you back this up with an article etc. 
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AJF - 27 Aug 2020 12:10 PM
paulbagzFC - 27 Aug 2020 12:02 PM

why not though, surely something more draconian should be done to save the 21,000 lives lost every year due to smoking? or are you saying smokers lives are not as important as people who have covid?

We have passed so many laws and do so much with smoking but people still choose to do it.

Just like people are still choosing to not socially distance, not to wear masks, not to get tested etc etc.

Pick any high mortality rate cause of death and the same logic applies over and over again.

It boggles me why people keep fighting this fight when it comes to a once in a lifetime, if not century, pandemic like this ffs.

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pv4 - 27 Aug 2020 3:16 PM
AJF - 27 Aug 2020 2:35 PM

After you posting this, I would be very interested to see the statistics of people to have deceased from cancer developed from second hand smoke only, and then to compare that to deaths from COVID. Genuinely interested to see you back this up with an article etc. 

Nah it's just going to be an advertisement for the latest top of the range Tefal frying pan, featuring patented Thermo-spot technology
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pv4 - 27 Aug 2020 3:16 PM
AJF - 27 Aug 2020 2:35 PM

After you posting this, I would be very interested to see the statistics of people to have deceased from cancer developed from second hand smoke only, and then to compare that to deaths from COVID. Genuinely interested to see you back this up with an article etc. 

ask and ye shall receive......

Straight from the federal Health Department

There is no safe level of passive smoking.

Studies show that second-hand smoke can harm you even if you’re exposed for just a moment.
For every 8 smokers who die from a smoking-related disease, 1 non-smoker dies from second-hand smoke exposure.

Non-smokers who live with a smoker have a 25% to 30% greater risk of developing heart disease.

https://www.health.gov.au/health-topics/smoking-and-tobacco/about-smoking-and-tobacco/about-passive-smoking

So assuming there are 21K direct deaths, 1 in 8 makes about 2,625 passive smoking deaths each and every year











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NicCarBel - 27 Aug 2020 3:49 PM
pv4 - 27 Aug 2020 3:16 PM

Nah it's just going to be an advertisement for the latest top of the range Tefal frying pan, featuring patented Thermo-spot technology

keep trying champ, dont let my constantly owning you discourage you, you may actually come up with something thats plain pathetic rather than the pitiful stuff you are currently producing









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AJF - 27 Aug 2020 2:35 PM
pv4 - 27 Aug 2020 12:15 PM

Same cant be said about Covid where there is no choice, particularly for the demographic least affected by it (the young and healthy).

Thats not true. If you social distance, use basic hygiene, and are careful over who you invite into your house then COVID19 is very much avoidable

I'm not saying the old people in shared facilities chose to get the virus. But in most instances there was an element of choice in contracting the virus. People knew the risks about holidaying around when there is a global pandemic. They know the risks of letting sick people in the work place. They know the risks of not keeping personal space out in the public. And as I have said previously, in a substantial amount of cases people know exactly who gave them the virus

This notion that the average Aussie is going to step on a train or in a supermarket and unwillingly contract the virus is just fear mongering. Most people who have caught the virus are not innocent victims but victims of their own poor decision making, negligence or risk taking



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AJF - 27 Aug 2020 4:18 PM
NicCarBel - 27 Aug 2020 3:49 PM

keep trying champ, dont let my constantly owning you discourage you, you may actually come up with something thats plain pathetic rather than the pitiful stuff you are currently producing

You haven't owned crap except for maybe the aforementioned pan.

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bluebird - 27 Aug 2020 4:46 PM
AJF - 27 Aug 2020 2:35 PM

Thats not true. If you social distance, use basic hygiene, and are careful over who you invite into your house then COVID19 is very much avoidable

I'm not saying the old people in shared facilities chose to get the virus. But in most instances there was an element of choice in contracting the virus. People knew the risks about holidaying around when there is a global pandemic. They know the risks of letting sick people in the work place. They know the risks of not keeping personal space out in the public. And as I have said previously, in a substantial amount of cases people know exactly who gave them the virus

This notion that the average Aussie is going to step on a train or in a supermarket and unwillingly contract the virus is just fear mongering. Most people who have caught the virus are not innocent victims but victims of their own poor decision making, negligence or risk taking

Throw a person infected with covid on a peak hour commuter train and the odds are you have a cluster on your hands. What you're saying in the last paragraph is true and only true because of restrictions and high levels of compliance in the community.

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AJF - 27 Aug 2020 2:38 PM
sydneyfc1987 - 27 Aug 2020 2:02 PM

The Victorian CMO supports my point that not all deaths reported as being Covid related are actually caused by Covid, whereas all you have is your opinion on conspiracy theories, I know which one I have more faith in...

Yeah, not really bud. You've taken what he has said and exaggerated the likelihood of COVID not always being the primary cause of death to make it seem like a significant percentage of reported COVID deaths were not actually because of COVID. 

Pretty dishonest. 



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I don't understand the arguments here.  Are they saying the lockdowns are too harsh?

Does the 40 000 dead in the UK not worry the people that the same thing could happen here?  And if not why not.

Even if those figures are overblown by say a factor of 2 that's still 20 000 dead folk. Is that an OK total? 





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57% of Republicans think their death count of 175k+ is acceptable...
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sydneyfc1987 - 27 Aug 2020 5:58 PM
AJF - 27 Aug 2020 2:38 PM

Yeah, not really bud. You've taken what he has said and exaggerated the likelihood of COVID not always being the primary cause of death to make it seem like a significant percentage of reported COVID deaths were not actually because of COVID. 

Pretty dishonest. 


Dishonest is passing off your opinion as fact, which you have done several times in this discussion,

For some actual facts, ref the Fed Gov Epidemiology report page and for the fortnightly reporting period ending 16 August 2020, which included 155 deaths, the following were the comorbidity (ie other disease contributing to condition) rates
47.2% of hospitalised cases;
56.1% of patients admitted to ICU; and
67.1% of cases that died

Comorbidity has its own heading in each report so feel free to check any report. Interesting in the report for 2 weeks prior, 91% of hospitalizations had at least 1 comorbidity but deaths were heaps lower so I didnt use that.

https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/novel_coronavirus_2019_ncov_weekly_epidemiology_reports_australia_2020.htm













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Munrubenmuz - 27 Aug 2020 6:18 PM
I don't understand the arguments here.  Are they saying the lockdowns are too harsh?

Does the 40 000 dead in the UK not worry the people that the same thing could happen here?  And if not why not.

Even if those figures are overblown by say a factor of 2 that's still 20 000 dead folk. Is that an OK total? 



Thats an interesting philosophical question isnt it, what is an acceptable death rate for this disease and what is the government strategy for dealing with it.

In UK (and most of Europe) they are following a suppression strategy which means they will tolerate an increased death rate, provided their hospitals are not over run, so while per capita their rate is 4x higher than ours, they accept it as part of life and manage it. There have been some flare ups and localised restrictions (recently in response to an increase in covid, Spain ordered night clubs to close at 1am), but in general they are learning to live with the disease as there is no guarantee a vaccine or cure will ever be developed.

Here we say we are following a suppression strategy, but hospitals are empty, general mortality rates are well below long term trends and yet there is still an apparent need to impose draconian measures to suppress the virus.So reality is we are following a elimination strategy by stealth but as NZ just found out, this thing isnt going away and how many lock down cycles can you go through and for how long can you stay isolated?











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AJF - 27 Aug 2020 10:02 PM
Munrubenmuz - 27 Aug 2020 6:18 PM

Thats an interesting philosophical question isnt it, what is an acceptable death rate for this disease and what is the government strategy for dealing with it.

In UK (and most of Europe) they are following a suppression strategy which means they will tolerate an increased death rate, provided their hospitals are not over run, so while per capita their rate is 4x higher than ours, they accept it as part of life and manage it. There have been some flare ups and localised restrictions (recently in response to an increase in covid, Spain ordered night clubs to close at 1am), but in general they are learning to live with the disease as there is no guarantee a vaccine or cure will ever be developed.

Here we say we are following a suppression strategy, but hospitals are empty, general mortality rates are well below long term trends and yet there is still an apparent need to impose draconian measures to suppress the virus.So reality is we are following a elimination strategy by stealth but as NZ just found out, this thing isnt going away and how many lock down cycles can you go through and for how long can you stay isolated?



This is something I'll agree with you with, particularly the bolded sentence.

I'll also admit, I will always be on the cautious side of things, not because of how I feel about myself around all of this, but my wife's health, so I will put myself through as many lock down cycles and stay isolated for as long as necessary while she is able to work from home
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Pogba testing positive, hope he deflects any lasting effects of the virus away as much as he deflected his winning goal against the Socceroos off Behich.
Edited
5 Years Ago by paladisious
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AJF - 27 Aug 2020 9:40 PM
sydneyfc1987 - 27 Aug 2020 5:58 PM

Dishonest is passing off your opinion as fact, which you have done several times in this discussion,

For some actual facts, ref the Fed Gov Epidemiology report page and for the fortnightly reporting period ending 16 August 2020, which included 155 deaths, the following were the comorbidity (ie other disease contributing to condition) rates
47.2% of hospitalised cases;
56.1% of patients admitted to ICU; and
67.1% of cases that died

Comorbidity has its own heading in each report so feel free to check any report. Interesting in the report for 2 weeks prior, 91% of hospitalizations had at least 1 comorbidity but deaths were heaps lower so I didnt use that.

https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/novel_coronavirus_2019_ncov_weekly_epidemiology_reports_australia_2020.htm

I think a lot of the conclusions you're coming to are flawed but I appreciate that you're using actual facts from reputable sources. This is a refreshing change around here!

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AJF - 27 Aug 2020 9:40 PM
sydneyfc1987 - 27 Aug 2020 5:58 PM

Dishonest is passing off your opinion as fact, which you have done several times in this discussion,


And all you have done is twist some facts to suit your opinion. 

You'd make an excellent politician, I'll give you that. 

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paladisious - 27 Aug 2020 10:33 PM
Pogba testing positive, hope he deflects any lasting effects of the virus away as much as he deflected his winning goal against the Socceroos off Behich.

All good. Only a little flu according to the forum experts AJF and Bluebird.

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mcjules - 27 Aug 2020 10:46 PM
AJF - 27 Aug 2020 9:40 PM

I appreciate that you're using actual facts from reputable sources. This is a refreshing change around here!

Agreed! 
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Munrubenmuz - 27 Aug 2020 6:18 PM
Does the 40 000 dead in the UK not worry the people that the same thing could happen here?  And if not why not.



No it doesnt and this has been the problem with the approach to the virus from the get go

Every country is different. And to understand the problem you have to look at the border issue

For people to survive they need a certain amount of resources such as food, medical etc... When you lock down people into a border based on political powers then for communities that don't have it all they eventually starve. What we have for states other people have for countries. Countries have different levels of economic and resource dependence on each other. There are also other contributing factors such as population density, living conditions, cultural / religious practices, etc... Not to mention access to healthcare

Australia locked down its borders early on and kept the virus largely at bay with that act alone. Some countries don't have that luxury. But as we have seen with New Zealand, a border lockdown alone is not enough to prevent infection. You also need certain social practices in place and a strategy to manage out breaks

What is happening overseas will not happen here. Its ridiculous for people to actually buy into that debate and use it as the foundation for any argument. We don't have "waves" of the virus as people like to pretend. We have outbreaks. And our ability to control those outbreaks are linked to compliance which comes back to social policies and regulations

The only literal difference between NSW (250 cases) and Victoria (17,000 cases) is social policy. And this goes back to what I was saying about the "choice" element in contracting this virus (aside from front line staff or dependents like elderly and children). The decisions we make throughout the course of this virus is based on the sacrifices we are willing to make. And the problem with lockdown is if the rules are too hard and the sacrifices being asked are too much then people will simply choose to do what is more comfortable for them which causes the virus to spread faster

Australia only needs quarantine, social distancing, and then to only do what is absolutely necessary to bring outbreaks under control. It is undeniable Victoria has taken the hard approach when it comes to this virus and it has backfired. We can't hide behind the misfortunes of other countries



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5 Years Ago by bluebird
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bluebird - 28 Aug 2020 7:31 AM
Munrubenmuz - 27 Aug 2020 6:18 PM

No it doesnt and this has been the problem with the approach to the virus from the get go

Every country is different. And to understand the problem you have to look at the border issue

For people to survive they need a certain amount of resources such as food, medical etc... When you lock down people into a border based on political powers then for communities that don't have it all they eventually starve. What we have for states other people have for countries. Countries have different levels of economic and resource dependence on each other. There are also other contributing factors such as population density, living conditions, cultural / religious practices, etc... Not to mention access to healthcare

Australia locked down its borders early on and kept the virus largely at bay with that act alone. Some countries don't have that luxury. But as we have seen with New Zealand, a border lockdown alone is not enough to prevent infection. You also need certain social practices in place and a strategy to manage out breaks

What is happening overseas will not happen here. Its ridiculous for people to actually buy into that debate and use it as the foundation for any argument. We don't have "waves" of the virus as people like to pretend. We have outbreaks. And our ability to control those outbreaks are linked to compliance which comes back to social policies and regulations

The only literal difference between NSW (250 cases) and Victoria (17,000 cases) is social policy. And this goes back to what I was saying about the "choice" element in contracting this virus (aside from front line staff or dependents like elderly and children). The decisions we make throughout the course of this virus is based on the sacrifices we are willing to make. And the problem with lockdown is if the rules are too hard and the sacrifices being asked are too much then people will simply choose to do what is more comfortable for them which causes the virus to spread faster

Australia only needs quarantine, social distancing, and then to only do what is absolutely necessary to bring outbreaks under control. It is undeniable Victoria has taken the hard approach when it comes to this virus and it has backfired. We can't hide behind the misfortunes of other countries

That doesn’t make sense. Victoria has increased its lockdown measures and the numbers are going down now. 

Also, no one is saying we are starving our people with lockdown. It has always been the case that you can leave the house for food and medical reasons.

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mcjules - 27 Aug 2020 10:46 PM
AJF - 27 Aug 2020 9:40 PM

I think a lot of the conclusions you're coming to are flawed but I appreciate that you're using actual facts from reputable sources. This is a refreshing change around here!

not really, I have said several times that there isnt enough data to make an accurate estimate because gov wont release it. But there is plenty of evidence which proves that not every death is caused by Covid alone.

My main point all along (probably not explicitly stated though) is that gov is using selective stats to justify their actions, go back to your high school days (which for some posters on here isn't too hard) and you may recall that is one of the main elements of persuasive writing.

Seriously, why do you think Dan Andrews opens every press conference with the aggregate total of covid cases in Vic rather than just the new cases, starting off with "we have 18,714 cases" is much scarier than saying we have 113 new cases and 3,657 active cases. Selective stats to scare people into complying.

I have watched several press conferences where he has been specifically asked about underlying cause of death and he refuses to answer due to "privacy". If you saw the press conference when the Vic CMO answers the question I posted above re not all covid deaths being caused by covid, he was very cagey and uncomfortable answering.











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