Here's what I don't understand about that orange clown.  Why doesn't he just say 'look we don't want to shut the economy down, we can't let the cure be worse than the problem blah blah blah but in order to minimise the damage you need to avoid public events, work from home if you can, socially distance yourselves and wear masks'.  (At least this way he can keep the economy going and save lives.)

Christ on a bike he'd save 10's of thousands of Republican lives.  People who vote for him and take him at his word for everything.  I mean within the next couple of days Americans will be dying at a rate of a 9/11 every day.  It's madness.  By the end of January they're saying 400 000 dead.  

How can that fucking idiot sleep at night knowing he's running interference on the biggest health crisis America has ever had?  I would dead set love to have a proper conversation with a Trump supporter that wants to defend what he's doing. 

Trust me you wouldn't. Im come across a few of his "supporters" in Australia. I dont know what percentage of the 70 million trump voters are part of it but the full on support base are essentially a cult. 

Yeah that was sort of tongue in cheek.  I click on the comments on twitter and they're something else.  Inevitably the bios of these people are 'patriot, proud American, freedom lover, Trump2020' etc etc or variations thereof.  Ugh.   

Does my head in. Look no further than these "freedom rallies" in Sydney and Melbourne over the last few days.  Trump flags, anti vaccination t -shirts etc, comparing contact tracing to 1984.

 I fear for the future of Western democratic civilisation when I see these people.  The wilfull ignorance (or level of stupidity) is genuinely what you would expect to see in a cult. Its terrifying.

Why would you even have a Trump flag in Australia?

ikr.

Like I get that the US is still, in a lot of ways, the sociocultural centre of the world but Trump literally runs off the policy of "America first". Doesn't that mean being an Australian trump supporter is slightly counterproductive to the well being of Australia? 

Anyway, trying to understand these people is like trying to understand why some people believe the earth is flat. Actually, come to think of it, many probably subscribe to both theories.

:(

Because dumb kunts think we're the 51st state

-PB

https://politicalwire.com/2020/12/09/the-deadliest-days-in-american-history/

They've ticked over 3k per day yesterday, so this needs updating.

Given it usually takes about 3 weeks for someone to die of covid if they go down that road, I expect deaths to surge in about a week as we reach the three week point after Thanksgiving.

Germany going into 'lockdown' from Wednesday. Media not helping with headlines such as 'Xmas shopping only until Wednesday.' Supermarkets will surely remain open but all retail will be shut. I just don't think it'll work so effectively as people keep having private parties and that's the biggest issue.

I personally had a very decent and surprising second half of 2020 that defied economics so I should be OK for now. Unfortunately I applied for some assistance but my partner's income is considered and it's really just a welfare cliff. If I didn't work as a single I'd get all rent paid, insurance subsidy and 432€ cash. Considering the low partner income and an estimated earning of 80% less on my end saw only 60€ cash a month benefit and all rent and insurance to come out of own pocket. It really is a cliff where any extra earning removes any hope of even the most minimal assistance.

While they have monumentally screwed up in handling it over there, that data selection seems a bit disingenuous.

So during the Spanish flu, 195000 Americans died in October 1918. If we just take a straight average over those 31 days, that's 6290 deaths every day for a month. Again, COVID has been a major screwup for them but the figures used are misleading (whether intentional or not, I don't know). It makes me question what else they have missed or got wrong.

Sources: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-commemoration/pandemic-timeline-1918.htm#:~:text=October%201918,195%2C000%20Americans%20during%20October%20alone.
https://www.history.com/news/spanish-flu-deaths-october-1918

Fair play to include the Spanish Flu pandemic in the figures, but that still puts the numbers into historical perspective. 

9/11 caused an entire change in our travel infrastructure. They're basically getting a 9/11 equivalent every day and a significant portion don't care. 

Sadly a majority still believe it to be a hoax. Didnt help when trump helped that conspiracy theory thrive . M y cousin is a nurse in Chicago and yet he is a pro trump guy who despite working as a front liner doesnt believe its as bad as its been made out to be 

Well I’m glad we havent followed Sweden’s strategy which so many were advocating for

Ok. I'm going to need more details here. Your cousin is a front line nurse but doesn't believe in the seriousness of COVID?

https://twitter.com/i/status/1338259502529994758

He's a trumpian. He sees it everyday but cos he like my great uncle are full trumptards they always down play it

Yup.

-PB

Yep. Rusty, bluebird and co. Have been strangely quiet of late.

Aikhme gone MIA as well.

Clowns.

Still not a fan of facts I see. I stopped posting because it was a round circle argument where you failed to raise a single valid point. Just a bunch of hysterical sensationlised stats relevant to other countries to explain why Victoria needed tougher laws than your state with more cases for the duration of the pandemic. I then took a break from the forum due to a personal family tragedy at the end of September

I didnt ever say herd immunity is the way to go. I have only pointed out Australia's situation and how it is different to the world. But you like to continue acting like we are the 51st state of America. So lets get back to the facts that you continue to deny:
1/ Australia, unlike other countries, have strict shoreline quarantine which automatically locks out 99.99% of cases. Before this we had over 2000 cases enter our country in 2 or 3 weeks when there was less than a million cases worldwide. If we didnt have measures in place stopping all but a trickle of people coming here and heavily managing those that did, then you would be vindicated in screaming like a hysterical fairy. But no, Australia is well under control
2/ Australia, unlike other countries, has regulated nationwide basic measures to manage any spillages like social distancing, hand washing and awareness campaigns. This has by my count 90% compliance which is why when there was an outbreak in Adelaide it only had 22 cases after 4-5 generations despite nobody knowing it was there. The Adelaide outbreak was under control before it was even discovered. Those little markers you see in super markets arent for giggles. They actually work
3/ Australia, unlike other countries, with such a small number of cases, and an even smaller number of stranger to stranger transmission, can manage the rest with contact tracing. Not to mention the how ever many hundreds or thousands of beds and ICU units we paid for at the start of the pandemic. It just means learning to live with inevitable outbreaks instead of hitting that great big red abort button. Remember how the federal advice was suppression?

We have had this virus for nearly 10 months growing larger and larger around us to the point that 1 in every 100 people that do reach our country is infected (compared to 1 in 250 at the start). Yet despite this, ignoring one failed outbreak, time and time again we have seen the federal framework do wonders and give us a normal life. Spectatorless sports overseas and everybody attacking each other about what they should be doing, compared to Australia with 30,000 in attendance for a grand final

So go on, tell me about how 70 articles with lab experiments of people sneezing on each other at a short distance means face masks should be regulated in 20% of our country by force (even though the epidemiologist that recommended face masks for the worst of the outbreak labelled them as nonsensical and political when they were still being enforced in November). Tell me about the worst that other countries are enduring each day and the bits they have gotten wrong mean we need to be panicked and alarmed. Tell me about how I was wrong to use the word "mild" to describe the virus in March even though the Coronavirus stats website lists 99.5% of people currently infected in a mild condition

Jump onto google maps with GPS. Find your location (make sure you are not using a VPN). And then once you have found out what country you are in maybe start acting like it instead of fighting the battles of everybody else

To use the paraphrased words of even the Victorian response team: Australia has given itself an opportunity that very few other countries have or have even been able to do

Not many people here understand or appreciate it. And even fewer know what suppression means

It's hard to have a rational debate with somebody who immediately sets about skewing statistics over state by state case numbers. Melbourne clearly got to a point where community transmission was well beyond anything Australia had experienced up to, and since the lockdowns were implemented.

Suppression via contact tracing is not feasible when you are recording 700+ positive cases per day. I just don't get how anybody can argue that mandatory mask wearing and strict lockdowns were the only way to bring the numbers down once transmission got to that stage. Should it have got to this stage? Absolutely not. That's another argument which I'm sure we would agree upon.

At the time you argued the lockdowns wouldn't have an effect on the numbers due to forcing people into households etc. You were wrong on that part. You could at least acknowledge that if you want to be taken seriously.

Sorry to hear about the family tragedy.

There are two subtle but important differences in my posts which I dont think you have picked up on

If Victoria had followed the federal framework of opening up when the other states did, instead of policies aimed at driving the majority of their population into households, you wouldnt have had a relentless outbreak to begin with. The thing that you can't deny is that what happened in Victoria was a one off. Adelaide had the same literal situation of 3 infected people escaping hotel quarantine and it was over before lockdown was implemented due to different patterns of social movement

The driving to the household thing I mentioned happened before the outbreak which is why lockdown had no impact in keeping the numbers low because the social patterns had already been established. Lockdown implemented at about 50 cases a day and we still ended up with 400-500 (700 being an outlier). This "driving numbers to the households" happened at the end of May when people were allowed 20 people in their houses but no school and 25% of people in the workforce. I didnt say it started with lockdown measures, or lockdown shouldnt be used because driving people to households is a dangerous side effect. For what its worth I supported the initial nation wide lockdown because it was uniform and bought the country time, albiet thought it was too long

The second thing I mentioned was that community transmission is driven by known to known transmission. It is the same ratio in every state and every outbreak which is usually 25-30%. Every step of the way through the Victorian outbreak, when they were 400-500 a day, and equally when they were below 50. Community transmission in Victoria was high because known to known transmission was high, and then it was low because known to known was low - same ratio as mentioned above. If you wanted to prove lockdown or masks had an impact on community transmission then we would have seen ~400 cases a day with ~100 community, to ~300 cases a day with ~10 community. We didnt see that. One continued to be a driver of the other

The other part to my debate which is a subtle but important difference is my rant against face masks was aimed at Victoria saying they were going to be around for several months, not just when there were 700 cases a day. This was proven to be true as the laws lasted 135 days, and even today are needless and ambiguous, but more sensible. My debate against face masks was why should Victorians, after numbers had come down, be required by law to wear masks in all situations when there are better and more effective systems in place for our situation? Face mask laws should have been scrapped mid September for regional and end September for metro. Not something that was later described as "culture" and also the "most significant tool in controlling the outbreak", and "Americans wish they could have had everybody wearing masks before their deadly winter"

To your point about the effectiveness of lockdown after an outbreak - I dont know. I'll give you that. There are too many variables. The R rate was already lower than 1 before the lockdown. Also was 135 days enough, not enough or too much? Does the lockdown end when numbers reach 25 a day or 0 like in Victorias case where the virus had literally been eliminated before retail opened (when you consider a 1-2 week lag between cases contracted and cases announced)

The thing about the Victorian outbreak is it played out. There is a finite number of linked households and Victoria had the luxury of not having a single patient zero enter the state after the initial outbreak. It really was a case of shut up shop and wait for it to die out. The Victorian response team also said if stage 4 wasnt implemented their own data predicted the virus would be under control after 6 months. So really it was 4 1/2 months with lockdown and 6 months without. But the 6 months is speculative, so again, I'll give you that point. A 4 1/2 month lockdown under our specific circumstances eliminated the virus. Does that mean 4 1/2 months of stage 4 lockdown next time there is an outbreak?

Whatever role lockdown had after the outbreak, I stand by the broader premise of my initial arguements:
1/ Victoria's preference for people in households instead of movement in community caused the initial outbreak
2/ The face mask debate has no relevance in Australia where they already have quarantine, 90% compliance on social distancing, and contact tracing (outside of medical and customer facing staff)

Finally, a genuine heartfelt thanks for your acknowledgment of my personal circumstances. Just goes to show that even though people on this forum have different opinions, and by nature sometimes resort to name calling, at the end of the day we are all people and sometimes that is more important than who is right

Sweden and UK  fatal infections in graphic format

https://twitter.com/KateBus05902540/status/1338977642817740803/photo/1


guess what both similar. lockdowns dont work 

Looking at these two positions, I think it would be reasonable to argue that some of Victoria's lockdown restrictions at the time may have been considered to be too harsh. I didn't think so, but I can certainly see the other side of the coin where some lockdown/controls were needed but not to the extent imposed. 

As for the second point, if your view is medical personnel and customer facing staff/customers should wear masks, then I think you will have broad consensus on mask wearing.

The UK lockdown didn't work. NZ and Victoria worked.

lol Trump basically wanted people to get infected ala herd immunity style, which has been widely discredited.

Classic.

-PB

Well that's conclusive I guess (if you ignore the reality of lockdowns working in multiple cases and Sweden's main proponent of the herd immunity coming admitting he was wrong).

Not much one for reality are ya?

So did Boris Johnson up until the last minute where he reluctantly followed medical advice for lockdowns, at which point it was too late.

Just another little fact dirkvanadidas has elected to ignore.