Coronavirus Megathread


Coronavirus Megathread

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bluebird2
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Melbcityguy - 6 Jan 2021 10:34 AM
Do you blokes think interstate travel is a good idea? I’ve booked Queensland in March but I’m getting nervous 

Depends on the reason

A holiday? Absolutely not. We have seen time and time again people wondering aimlessly from one part of the country to the other is the worst thing for this virus. Especially when states have different thresholds. One case in Victoria today and return to work plans cancelled. I'd hate to imagine what would happen if we reached double binary digits

If it is for family or essential reasons then by all means. Be aware of hotspots and check the news every day. Keep your distance, wash your hands, and keep track of anybody you spend time with or come into contact with


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bluebird2 - 6 Jan 2021 11:34 AM
Melbcityguy - 6 Jan 2021 10:34 AM

Depends on the reason

A holiday? Absolutely not. We have seen time and time again people wondering aimlessly from one part of the country to the other is the worst thing for this virus. Especially when states have different thresholds. One case in Victoria today and return to work plans cancelled. I'd hate to imagine what would happen if we reached double binary digits

If it is for family or essential reasons then by all means. Be aware of hotspots and check the news every day. Keep your distance, wash your hands, and keep track of anybody you spend time with or come into contact with


spot on, @ MCG, I have been telling people I know from fam and all WTF are you booking going to Qld for hols - why go to airports why be in those tin cans in the sky all the risks are right around you.
Most hardly travel around their own State, do it, keep those regional business going and more, just be careful as Bluebrid quotes its all common sense to me.
IF you need to for essential reasons and family urgency all understoood but Hols ? use your head go local.


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Melbcityguy - 6 Jan 2021 10:34 AM
Do you blokes think interstate travel is a good idea? I’ve booked Queensland in March but I’m getting nervous 

Prolly won't be let in by that stage lol

-PB

https://i.imgur.com/batge7K.jpg

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Fair enough thanks for the answer. There are plenty places I could drive to. 
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Zero new cases in Victoria with almost 33k tests done.

We're back!

Edit: Zero in NSW too, well done.
Edited
3 Years Ago by paladisious
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paladisious - 7 Jan 2021 10:59 AM
Zero new cases in Victoria with almost 33k tests done.

We're back!

Edit: Zero in NSW too, well done.

New case in Brisbane fingers crossed it doesn’t spread 
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yes great news for both of the major populated States matters are in hand - for now.
Its going to happen again, no doubt about it we're just damn lucky we can get some control of the beast compared to what occurs in EU/USA.



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We just need to ride this out for a few more months. Vaccinations starting in March. With a bit of luck, we can get it all done before the end of this year. 
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Burztur - 8 Jan 2021 1:50 AM
We just need to ride this out for a few more months. Vaccinations starting in March. With a bit of luck, we can get it all done before the end of this year. 

With a vaccination program you are talking about 70-75% uptake and 95% of efficiency for those who take it

This means ~30% of the population still susceptible which is enough to overwhelm the hospital system if an outbreak is large enough. Don't forget also 3 or 4 cases a day is enough for Australian states to start closing borders and imposing rules

And how do you prove that you have been vaccinated? Do you have to carry around a certificate which then means Australia needs to print 17 million cards or documents which can't be forged?

Its a bit like how those who have contracted the virus and to the best of our knowledge can't get it again in the short term at least still have to follow the rules. And nobody knows how long the vaccine is effective for. It could be 12 months and we have to repeat our efforts which is logistically timely as you have pointed out

Things dont change in Australia. This is why we had the luxury of waiting until late March, which has only been brought forward to patch up one too many weaknesses in our quarantine program. The way things are today is how things are likely to be until the rest of the world have a chance to catch up. Once they have a 30% susceptible population then the virus starts to trend downwards. We saw in March when Australia had a 30% known to stranger ratio that a natural downward trend means about 4 weeks for the bulk and a further 6 weeks for the tail

This thing is going to be part of our lives for the next 18-24 months. Social distancing, washing your hands. Get used to it

Australia simply doesnt have a system in place for living side by side with small outbreaks even after 9 months which is a real concern. NSW so far have made the best effort to demonstrate that is has a system not just for today but for next year also. And how the entire state doesnt have to fall to its knees because of a localised outbreak. This latest outbreak has been a perfect opportunity to iron out the kinks and improve that little bit each time (its just a shame they bowed to political pressure at the end of it)

We just need states to stop looking at America and slapping the big red panic button every time a case is announced or its going to be a long year either way

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bluebird2 - 8 Jan 2021 7:00 AM
Burztur - 8 Jan 2021 1:50 AM

With a vaccination program you are talking about 70-75% uptake and 95% of efficiency for those who take it

This means ~30% of the population still susceptible which is enough to overwhelm the hospital system if an outbreak is large enough. Don't forget also 3 or 4 cases a day is enough for Australian states to start closing borders and imposing rules

And how do you prove that you have been vaccinated? Do you have to carry around a certificate which then means Australia needs to print 17 million cards or documents which can't be forged?

Its a bit like how those who have contracted the virus and to the best of our knowledge can't get it again in the short term at least still have to follow the rules. And nobody knows how long the vaccine is effective for. It could be 12 months and we have to repeat our efforts which is logistically timely as you have pointed out

Things dont change in Australia. This is why we had the luxury of waiting until late March, which has only been brought forward to patch up one too many weaknesses in our quarantine program. The way things are today is how things are likely to be until the rest of the world have a chance to catch up. Once they have a 30% susceptible population then the virus starts to trend downwards. We saw in March when Australia had a 30% known to stranger ratio that a natural downward trend means about 4 weeks for the bulk and a further 6 weeks for the tail

This thing is going to be part of our lives for the next 18-24 months. Social distancing, washing your hands. Get used to it

Australia simply doesnt have a system in place for living side by side with small outbreaks even after 9 months which is a real concern. NSW so far have made the best effort to demonstrate that is has a system not just for today but for next year also. And how the entire state doesnt have to fall to its knees because of a localised outbreak. This latest outbreak has been a perfect opportunity to iron out the kinks and improve that little bit each time (its just a shame they bowed to political pressure at the end of it)

We just need states to stop looking at America and slapping the big red panic button every time a case is announced or its going to be a long year either way

I think social distancing etc is going to be the norm regardless. Handwashing should be a basic task to begin with! I agree about the uncertainty regarding the vaccine (uptake, efficacy, duration). There are still a lot of unknowns.
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Burztur - 8 Jan 2021 8:33 AM
bluebird2 - 8 Jan 2021 7:00 AM

I think social distancing etc is going to be the norm regardless. Handwashing should be a basic task to begin with! I agree about the uncertainty regarding the vaccine (uptake, efficacy, duration). There are still a lot of unknowns.

agreed, and Bluebird I would hope manymany of us have changed our ways by now re distancing,sanitisers and now masks for those needing to comply right now in NSW/Sydney etc.
Also downloading the Service NSW app for the covid safe check in is important.
Life is not that bad in the big covid living life picture.
Its restricted travelling more than anything else, I for one compared to others have been a regular OS traveller for manymany years, I'm enjoying not being at airports, in tin cans for hours on end and just as during the GFC, we have adjusted our ways working once again and for the better imo.
My company has saved a over triple figures in travel expense's for eg.......
My understanding re the vaccine roll out is elderly first off, 70's 80yr olds, then essential workers above 50's etcetc, I understood they are hoping its all rolled by Octoberish - and thats those who wish to be vaccined obviously.
We will have many that won't - their choice.
I don't know how this will be monitered those vaccined, what after effects or whatever, thats another pandora's box but I suspect like this years flu shots.
My wife's Mum is in a nursing home, (excl when in lockdown) you cannot visit without proof of having the flu shot, when you have one your certificate has a code, all you do is copy it in your mobile IF needed.
Not sure IF aged care offices go into a system to check your valid or not is another question.
Yep I suspect forgery will be prevelant re the vaccine.



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In a 2 month period, 4 of Australia's largest cities have been under lockdown and had mandatory mask laws despite an average of less than 10 cases a day

This is not sustainable for 12 months
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See, lesson never learnt
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/traffic-chaos-as-drivers-leave-brisbane-ahead-of-6pm-lockdown/ar-BB1czi7e

You guys are talking about fining people, despite social distancing and practicing hygiene, for simply not making a gesture to cover their airways. As if that makes them some kind of health risk to the general population

Yet here we see yet again another example of people who are told there is a chance they have been exposed to the virus, and the very first thing they do is transmit it to another region. Where is the fine? Where are the repercussions?

This is the single most negligent act anybody can commit during an active virus outbreak and we're instead fining people for something that meets no standard and is not regulated

Guaranteed the chances one of these clowns have taken the virus to another region is greater than the chance you'll catch this thing at a supermarket despite keeping your distance and following the rules


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bluebird2 - 8 Jan 2021 5:54 PM
See, lesson never learnt
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/traffic-chaos-as-drivers-leave-brisbane-ahead-of-6pm-lockdown/ar-BB1czi7e

You guys are talking about fining people, despite social distancing and practicing hygiene, for simply not making a gesture to cover their airways. As if that makes them some kind of health risk to the general population

Yet here we see yet again another example of people who are told there is a chance they have been exposed to the virus, and the very first thing they do is transmit it to another region. Where is the fine? Where are the repercussions?

This is the single most negligent act anybody can commit during an active virus outbreak and we're instead fining people for something that meets no standard and is not regulated


Totally agree with you regarding these people rushing to leave Brisbane (selfish fuckwits who may have jeopardised the efforts to control this).

Once again though you are trying to find excuses to justify your argument against mandatory masks. The more measures you take to reduce the spread the better the outcome, regardless of inconsistencies in enforcement. 

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sydneyfc1987 - 8 Jan 2021 6:30 PM
bluebird2 - 8 Jan 2021 5:54 PM

Once again though you are trying to find excuses to justify your argument against mandatory masks. The more measures you take to reduce the spread the better the outcome, regardless of inconsistencies in enforcement. 

Australia does have more measures: quarantine, isolation orders, social distancing, hygiene practices, contact tracing, awareness campaigns, enforcement resources, medical supplies and ICU units. There is a reason the Adelaide outbreak only had 50 cases and the NSW one doesnt look like passing 200

As a "measure" masks are a hit and hope tool for where nothing else is available. So why arent they simply a strong recommendation like we had previously seen in NSW?

No outbreak, 30% compliance on public transport. Strong recommendation, 60% compliance on public transport. Thats what we saw. Why start fining people $200 when at the end of the day, in conjunction with everything I have outlined above, the pay off is so small its not worth the paperwork, resources and angst

Australia seriously needs to put face masks into perspective. I read an article about an illegal rave and the leading part of the article designed to enrage the reader was that this excessively large group group of sweaty, drunken, huggy, close dancing morons were not wearing masks. And this isnt the first such article. If the general advice to the public is face masks are an important tool for stopping the spread then people will act on misinformation and the danger is all the other good work will be undone. Like I said, people dont wear shoes and sandals at the same time. The health advice should be "masks are something that should be worn as a precaution for your personal protection when social distancing is not possible. We strongly recommend people start using them on public transport and busy supermarkets"

Thats how it was at the start. Instead the advice we have is "10,000 people at a game. Not safe. Face masks, safe. Supermarkets and shops are unsafe. Face masks, safe."

You'll never have 100% compliance. People are still murdering each other and that was illegal longer than we have had the coronavirus. If you can get most people to keep their distance, wash their hands, and voluntarily isolate when they are a high risk then contact tracers can take care of the rest. No need to upset the apple cart to prevent that one last case
Edited
3 Years Ago by bluebird2
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Once again your entire argument rests on masks replacing social distancing, hand washing etc which simply isn't true.

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sydneyfc1987 - 9 Jan 2021 8:12 AM
Once again your entire argument rests on masks replacing social distancing, hand washing etc which simply isn't true.

You're not understanding the difference between what is being imposed and what is being done. I never said the health advice is "wear masks and dont do any of the other stuff". I never said mask laws are a replacement for other measures. I said there is a danger that if people think masks can stop transmission then they wont bother social distancing (behaviour I have personally witnessed), or they will go to work / stores while sick because nobody will notice

Secondly you have simplified my arguement because I have made several points, not just one. Such as the heavy handedness of a measure being imposed for the minimal pay off, the potential for rule fatigue and non compliance, the validity of a imposing a measure that doesnt meet any standard or regulation, whether people will follow mask rules seriously if we get to a stage when they are actually valid (the boy who cried wolf), the environmental impact of millions of discarded face masks, and rule makers going above what is necessary to keep an outbreak under control when we have a suppression approach instead of an elimination approach

Face masks have simply become a sacred cow which is something I have witnessed in business time and time and time again. There is no data or science supporting their use for our unique situation. You could sell people pins and ribbons, which I would happily wear instead of a mask, and it would have the same impact. You can't seriously think that a virus as unpredictable, transmissible and infectious as this one can be stopped by a mere gesture. If the face mask being worn doesnt meet a lab standard with lab protocols then the effect will be negligible. I would have thought that much would be obvious. For hundreds of thousands of cases, catching rain with a hoola hoop makes a difference. Even if they prevented 1-2% of transmission means nearly 4000 Americans alive (and particularly as America doesnt really have any other systems). For 4-5 cases a day in the largest city and less than 200 in total - yeah lets start fining people for not going above and beyond because they clearly arent doing enough
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I thought we were giving up trying to convince each side?
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Burztur - 9 Jan 2021 10:08 AM
I thought we were giving up trying to convince each side?

I was just trying to clear up confusions and misrepresentations. But I take your point
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What’s the thoughts on the Australian open happening?
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Melbcityguy - 11 Jan 2021 1:02 PM
What’s the thoughts on the Australian open happening?

Its tennis so,  should it ever really happen... but seriously probably no,  surely like the talk of the grand prix moving to November wouldn't changing the open to later in the year be smarter. 
Having said that I'm a massive f1 fan,  i wouldn't have a problem with it coming at the right time, they went through last year reasonably well but they certainly can't quarantine all those people for 14 days. 
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It’s not like you’re allowed to make noise during the match anyway. The tennis players can quarantine and operate in a bubble.
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Tennis sounds like the easiest sport to make covid safe, at first thought.
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Active cases down by 50k in Germany since Christmas. More people now vaccinated than total active cases. Not a peep of that by the press. I think a little bit of encouragement could work to keep people pushing on but also it would be interpreted as everything is ok. I was quite disgusted at the tone of the newsreader last night upon revealing total cases and deaths. It sounded like the lotto numbers and almost a tone of joy at how much his job is assured by all this.
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johnszasz - 11 Jan 2021 11:13 PM
Active cases down by 50k in Germany since Christmas. More people now vaccinated than total active cases. Not a peep of that by the press. I think a little bit of encouragement could work to keep people pushing on but also it would be interpreted as everything is ok. I was quite disgusted at the tone of the newsreader last night upon revealing total cases and deaths. It sounded like the lotto numbers and almost a tone of joy at how much his job is assured by all this.

Agreed 100%. The media outlets have been disgusting and if this was any other national disaster like a bushfire you wouldnt see the same kind of sensationalised misinformation - just the facts people need to survive

When NSW recorded 3 cases on a single day they announced 45 total cases outside of Northern Sydney. When they had 1 new case, they announced 4 UK cases in Sydney (had to click the article to realise they were all in quarantine)

The public cant act on mixed messages, politics, personal preference and conflicting advice. This is a global pandemic. People are vulnerable and they need to know exactly where this is, how it is spreading, what the real risks are, and how they can avoid it. It doesnt help when 14 days of restrictions for every case discovered has become the norm, and other states slam borders shut as a result like some kind of board game


To the tennis - come to Victoria at your own risk. In NSW it would work. Australia simply does not have the viral activity for any unmanageable outbreak. We have seen this time and time and time and time and time again (one botched outbreak aside). If there is an outbreak in February, it wont impact the tennis like it didnt impact the cricket. We have to learn to live side by side with what little fragments we are going to get. Most of what Australia does is simply preemptive and precautionary. Social contact doesnt "create" the virus
Edited
3 Years Ago by bluebird2
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Hannover will begin vaccinating 450 people a week. A region with over 500,000 people. This will take a while.
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johnszasz - 29 Jan 2021 9:52 PM
Hannover will begin vaccinating 450 people a week. A region with over 500,000 people. This will take a while.

The EU procurement for the vaccine have totally fucked up, 3 months too late and now have stopped exports of the vaccines to other countries like Australia, tried it on with the UK  but it would lead to Vaccinewar according to Croatia PM , EU stepped down when they were told it would lead to breach of good friday agreement and possible renew genuine conflict between both parts of Ireland divide.EU also wanted to stop UK vaccines producers from exporting despite UK leaving the EU
Always hoped that Covid would be Chernobyl moment for China, looks like it could be Chernobyl mment for the EU who are unable to protect thier citizens.
Congrats to the EU for making the UK civil service look nimble and agile great organisation

Europe is funding the war not Chelsea football club

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WA's turn now. This is the new normal for a country with a suppression approach:
1 case = lockdown before any measures to assess the situation are done. Standard package includes total social and economic shutdown, limits on exercise, and fines for not wearing a mask

Dont forget also, 5 days means 14. We know this from SA and QLD

Going to be a long 12 months

Still worse living in Victoria somehow. At least the other states repeal their lockdown measures
Edited
3 Years Ago by bluebird2
Muz
Muz
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Suck shit Mark McGowan.  Hope they have a 1000 person outbreak.  Smarmy prick sitting there carrying on about NSW when we're taking 90% of all international returns.


Member since 2008.


LFC.
LFC.
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Hey Palace Chook, set up your own Job Keeper not from the rest of us tax payers you PIA.


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