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paladisious
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Group: Moderators
Posts: 39K,
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+x+x+x+x+x+x+xRemember when Australia thought that if you go into a stage 4 lockdown with masks for 3-7 days after the first case the problem goes away? Those were fun times What now Victoria? Yeah it worked several times, but with other states sending us other cases so many times eventually we were going to have a worse wave. We're still seeing big proportions of new cases in iso so hopefully we'll run it down soon. It never worked. It was just a case of the states announcing a lockdown and then declaring success and patting themselves on the back (what NSW did in their first and second week really) I'll give an example. When QLD went into lockdown with the virus already under control it meant two things: 1/ They werent able to test the efficiency of their response. 2/ They werent able to test the efficiency of the compliance to the response. You literally cant catch the virus unless there is actual activity regardless of what you do. If states declared success when people werent even doing the right thing, then they would have been working on the assumption that everybody had done the right thing when they went into lockdown NSW are in the situation they are in because they dont understand the problem. Australia created the myth of snap lockdowns but we have seen it fail not only for NSW, but three consecutive times since May for Victoria, for the ACT, and even QLD This virus doesnt respond to popular belief. The virus is the virus and things either work or they dont work. And there isnt a single state / territory that gives me any confidence they know what they are doing. It really is a case of hoping things just go away I disagree, I believe it's worked several times already, but I concede I'll never bring you around to that view so I'll leave it at that. Pala seriously, the lockdowns are like using steriod creams, camaflouges whats really underneath. Like a calm before the storm. They worked to a degree the first strain, like I've said many times we've been lucky, not because what the Prems CHO's have done we've been lucky ! Delta is a strong one nobody was going to contain it. Other states sending it lol, was gonna come from any angle, hard lockdowns/curfews/oh the ring of steel, nothing was going to keep it out no matter its entry. The main blame game is people in/from both our States who DGAF re not doing the right thing. We got delta down to zero with lockdown 5 in Victoria, before it came back from NSW. Other states have also got outbreaks down to zero with lockdowns. Now, one state is out of control, and they're the one state to take pride in not locking down. All seems pretty logical to me. The irony is if NSW had stuck to their plan of not locking down they wouldnt be in this mess How?
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bluebird2
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Group: Forum Members
Posts: 648,
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+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+xRemember when Australia thought that if you go into a stage 4 lockdown with masks for 3-7 days after the first case the problem goes away? Those were fun times What now Victoria? Yeah it worked several times, but with other states sending us other cases so many times eventually we were going to have a worse wave. We're still seeing big proportions of new cases in iso so hopefully we'll run it down soon. It never worked. It was just a case of the states announcing a lockdown and then declaring success and patting themselves on the back (what NSW did in their first and second week really) I'll give an example. When QLD went into lockdown with the virus already under control it meant two things: 1/ They werent able to test the efficiency of their response. 2/ They werent able to test the efficiency of the compliance to the response. You literally cant catch the virus unless there is actual activity regardless of what you do. If states declared success when people werent even doing the right thing, then they would have been working on the assumption that everybody had done the right thing when they went into lockdown NSW are in the situation they are in because they dont understand the problem. Australia created the myth of snap lockdowns but we have seen it fail not only for NSW, but three consecutive times since May for Victoria, for the ACT, and even QLD This virus doesnt respond to popular belief. The virus is the virus and things either work or they dont work. And there isnt a single state / territory that gives me any confidence they know what they are doing. It really is a case of hoping things just go away I disagree, I believe it's worked several times already, but I concede I'll never bring you around to that view so I'll leave it at that. Pala seriously, the lockdowns are like using steriod creams, camaflouges whats really underneath. Like a calm before the storm. They worked to a degree the first strain, like I've said many times we've been lucky, not because what the Prems CHO's have done we've been lucky ! Delta is a strong one nobody was going to contain it. Other states sending it lol, was gonna come from any angle, hard lockdowns/curfews/oh the ring of steel, nothing was going to keep it out no matter its entry. The main blame game is people in/from both our States who DGAF re not doing the right thing. We got delta down to zero with lockdown 5 in Victoria, before it came back from NSW. Other states have also got outbreaks down to zero with lockdowns. Now, one state is out of control, and they're the one state to take pride in not locking down. All seems pretty logical to me. The irony is if NSW had stuck to their plan of not locking down they wouldnt be in this mess How? Its about following the data. For example: Lets say there is significant evidence this is spreading in gyms: . If you close down gyms the numbers will go down . If you regulate face masks in supermarkets and public transport the impact will be null . If you force people in to gyms the numbers will go up The invert also applies. Lets say there is evidence of no transmission in playgrounds . If you close down playgrounds the social activity moves elsewhere for an increase in numbers . If you regulate face masks in supermarkets and public transport the impact will be null . If you leave playgrounds open the virus will trend downwards Before NSW went into lockdown they had social distancing to keep numbers down (hundreds of exposure sits and only a handful of cases at most per site). They also had contact tracing to isolate (not lockdown) key contacts within 24 hours. A bit of chasing ones tail but they were hitting over 90% of activity with every day. 20 cases but 0-1 in the community infectious. No different to December last year or June the year before. In contrast households and functions were almost 100% infections When they went into lockdown the social activity dispersed from being in COVID safe places (Australia has forgotten what COVID safe means) to private, indoors, during winter, and where transmission was worst. Anybody can speculate what the numbers could have been to suit their own arguement if there wasnt a lockdown, but modelling has always been wrong. What is undeniable is numbers were 20 a day with 1 in the community and are now 640 a day with many in the community Given this virus is a literal representation of social movement (it spreads no other way) it is undeniable the current numbers are a product of the lockdown. They didnt trend downwards, they are trending upwards NSW have always had the least compliance. We knew that at the start and thats why their not locking down approach worked for their demographic. They were on top of things, they shouldnt have changed tact until they were no longer on top of things
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LFC.
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Group: Forum Members
Posts: 13K,
Visits: 0
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+x+x+x+x+x+xRemember when Australia thought that if you go into a stage 4 lockdown with masks for 3-7 days after the first case the problem goes away? Those were fun times What now Victoria? Yeah it worked several times, but with other states sending us other cases so many times eventually we were going to have a worse wave. We're still seeing big proportions of new cases in iso so hopefully we'll run it down soon. It never worked. It was just a case of the states announcing a lockdown and then declaring success and patting themselves on the back (what NSW did in their first and second week really) I'll give an example. When QLD went into lockdown with the virus already under control it meant two things: 1/ They werent able to test the efficiency of their response. 2/ They werent able to test the efficiency of the compliance to the response. You literally cant catch the virus unless there is actual activity regardless of what you do. If states declared success when people werent even doing the right thing, then they would have been working on the assumption that everybody had done the right thing when they went into lockdown NSW are in the situation they are in because they dont understand the problem. Australia created the myth of snap lockdowns but we have seen it fail not only for NSW, but three consecutive times since May for Victoria, for the ACT, and even QLD This virus doesnt respond to popular belief. The virus is the virus and things either work or they dont work. And there isnt a single state / territory that gives me any confidence they know what they are doing. It really is a case of hoping things just go away I disagree, I believe it's worked several times already, but I concede I'll never bring you around to that view so I'll leave it at that. Pala seriously, the lockdowns are like using steriod creams, camaflouges whats really underneath. Like a calm before the storm. They worked to a degree the first strain, like I've said many times we've been lucky, not because what the Prems CHO's have done we've been lucky ! Delta is a strong one nobody was going to contain it. Other states sending it lol, was gonna come from any angle, hard lockdowns/curfews/oh the ring of steel, nothing was going to keep it out no matter its entry. The main blame game is people in/from both our States who DGAF re not doing the right thing. We got delta down to zero with lockdown 5 in Victoria, before it came back from NSW. Other states have also got outbreaks down to zero with lockdowns. Now, one state is out of control, and they're the one state to take pride in not locking down. All seems pretty logical to me. Like I said, "lucky" and we all know 1goal isn't enough manymany times. Other States ? barring Vic/Melb are no comparo to the largest city, their numbers have been so low you'd expect control and well done to them. When its the largest city/taking the load of flights/largest pop who in their right mind can think anyone trying to take the lead let alone the amount of non believers and radicals your trying to get through would keep having a good run. Besides authorities errors I more so blame the people and you have them down there (the karen start etc) who do not behave like us abiding citizens, the excuse of language barrier is BS but its the ignorance and arrogance of these people, glad I'm not on SM but I hear and see enough here amongst my family showing how people behave. I've said it before, you can't keep the boogie man out forever, we do not live in a communist country, people here have become so selfish, the lack of manners are a good piece of our circumstance.
Love Football
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paladisious
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Group: Moderators
Posts: 39K,
Visits: 0
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+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+xRemember when Australia thought that if you go into a stage 4 lockdown with masks for 3-7 days after the first case the problem goes away? Those were fun times What now Victoria? Yeah it worked several times, but with other states sending us other cases so many times eventually we were going to have a worse wave. We're still seeing big proportions of new cases in iso so hopefully we'll run it down soon. It never worked. It was just a case of the states announcing a lockdown and then declaring success and patting themselves on the back (what NSW did in their first and second week really) I'll give an example. When QLD went into lockdown with the virus already under control it meant two things: 1/ They werent able to test the efficiency of their response. 2/ They werent able to test the efficiency of the compliance to the response. You literally cant catch the virus unless there is actual activity regardless of what you do. If states declared success when people werent even doing the right thing, then they would have been working on the assumption that everybody had done the right thing when they went into lockdown NSW are in the situation they are in because they dont understand the problem. Australia created the myth of snap lockdowns but we have seen it fail not only for NSW, but three consecutive times since May for Victoria, for the ACT, and even QLD This virus doesnt respond to popular belief. The virus is the virus and things either work or they dont work. And there isnt a single state / territory that gives me any confidence they know what they are doing. It really is a case of hoping things just go away I disagree, I believe it's worked several times already, but I concede I'll never bring you around to that view so I'll leave it at that. Pala seriously, the lockdowns are like using steriod creams, camaflouges whats really underneath. Like a calm before the storm. They worked to a degree the first strain, like I've said many times we've been lucky, not because what the Prems CHO's have done we've been lucky ! Delta is a strong one nobody was going to contain it. Other states sending it lol, was gonna come from any angle, hard lockdowns/curfews/oh the ring of steel, nothing was going to keep it out no matter its entry. The main blame game is people in/from both our States who DGAF re not doing the right thing. We got delta down to zero with lockdown 5 in Victoria, before it came back from NSW. Other states have also got outbreaks down to zero with lockdowns. Now, one state is out of control, and they're the one state to take pride in not locking down. All seems pretty logical to me. The irony is if NSW had stuck to their plan of not locking down they wouldnt be in this mess How? NSW have always had the least compliance. We knew that at the start and thats why their not locking down approach worked for their demographic. They were on top of things, they shouldnt have changed tact until they were no longer on top of things https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSVqLHghLpw
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bluebird2
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Group: Forum Members
Posts: 648,
Visits: 0
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+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+xRemember when Australia thought that if you go into a stage 4 lockdown with masks for 3-7 days after the first case the problem goes away? Those were fun times What now Victoria? Yeah it worked several times, but with other states sending us other cases so many times eventually we were going to have a worse wave. We're still seeing big proportions of new cases in iso so hopefully we'll run it down soon. It never worked. It was just a case of the states announcing a lockdown and then declaring success and patting themselves on the back (what NSW did in their first and second week really) I'll give an example. When QLD went into lockdown with the virus already under control it meant two things: 1/ They werent able to test the efficiency of their response. 2/ They werent able to test the efficiency of the compliance to the response. You literally cant catch the virus unless there is actual activity regardless of what you do. If states declared success when people werent even doing the right thing, then they would have been working on the assumption that everybody had done the right thing when they went into lockdown NSW are in the situation they are in because they dont understand the problem. Australia created the myth of snap lockdowns but we have seen it fail not only for NSW, but three consecutive times since May for Victoria, for the ACT, and even QLD This virus doesnt respond to popular belief. The virus is the virus and things either work or they dont work. And there isnt a single state / territory that gives me any confidence they know what they are doing. It really is a case of hoping things just go away I disagree, I believe it's worked several times already, but I concede I'll never bring you around to that view so I'll leave it at that. Pala seriously, the lockdowns are like using steriod creams, camaflouges whats really underneath. Like a calm before the storm. They worked to a degree the first strain, like I've said many times we've been lucky, not because what the Prems CHO's have done we've been lucky ! Delta is a strong one nobody was going to contain it. Other states sending it lol, was gonna come from any angle, hard lockdowns/curfews/oh the ring of steel, nothing was going to keep it out no matter its entry. The main blame game is people in/from both our States who DGAF re not doing the right thing. We got delta down to zero with lockdown 5 in Victoria, before it came back from NSW. Other states have also got outbreaks down to zero with lockdowns. Now, one state is out of control, and they're the one state to take pride in not locking down. All seems pretty logical to me. The irony is if NSW had stuck to their plan of not locking down they wouldnt be in this mess How? NSW have always had the least compliance. We knew that at the start and thats why their not locking down approach worked for their demographic. They were on top of things, they shouldnt have changed tact until they were no longer on top of things https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSVqLHghLpw You've literally posted a response to your own snap lockdowns. They worked when there were no cases, they didnt work when there was actual viral activity. Victoria have tried 4 snap lockdowns this year and only once was the state released after the 7 days, and even then there were lingering restrictions. Equally the one in ACT failed. As did the last one in QLD The WA premier said today that the one case from NSW cost them "10s of millions if not hundreds". I would have thought with that kind of stake on the line response teams will actually take 2 or 3 days to find out if there is actually an outbreak NSW were well on top of their outbreak until they went into lockdown. And the evidence of this is not just the break down of numbers, but also their success twice with the same method last year Lockdown isnt a fail safe solution. Controlling this virus requires real life solutions to real life problems. Its about understanding the actual situation and tailoring a response, every one being different. Australia purchased a template and rolled it out with the rhetoric "things would have been worse, but even then its everybody else fault except mine"
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paladisious
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Group: Moderators
Posts: 39K,
Visits: 0
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+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+xRemember when Australia thought that if you go into a stage 4 lockdown with masks for 3-7 days after the first case the problem goes away? Those were fun times What now Victoria? Yeah it worked several times, but with other states sending us other cases so many times eventually we were going to have a worse wave. We're still seeing big proportions of new cases in iso so hopefully we'll run it down soon. It never worked. It was just a case of the states announcing a lockdown and then declaring success and patting themselves on the back (what NSW did in their first and second week really) I'll give an example. When QLD went into lockdown with the virus already under control it meant two things: 1/ They werent able to test the efficiency of their response. 2/ They werent able to test the efficiency of the compliance to the response. You literally cant catch the virus unless there is actual activity regardless of what you do. If states declared success when people werent even doing the right thing, then they would have been working on the assumption that everybody had done the right thing when they went into lockdown NSW are in the situation they are in because they dont understand the problem. Australia created the myth of snap lockdowns but we have seen it fail not only for NSW, but three consecutive times since May for Victoria, for the ACT, and even QLD This virus doesnt respond to popular belief. The virus is the virus and things either work or they dont work. And there isnt a single state / territory that gives me any confidence they know what they are doing. It really is a case of hoping things just go away I disagree, I believe it's worked several times already, but I concede I'll never bring you around to that view so I'll leave it at that. Pala seriously, the lockdowns are like using steriod creams, camaflouges whats really underneath. Like a calm before the storm. They worked to a degree the first strain, like I've said many times we've been lucky, not because what the Prems CHO's have done we've been lucky ! Delta is a strong one nobody was going to contain it. Other states sending it lol, was gonna come from any angle, hard lockdowns/curfews/oh the ring of steel, nothing was going to keep it out no matter its entry. The main blame game is people in/from both our States who DGAF re not doing the right thing. We got delta down to zero with lockdown 5 in Victoria, before it came back from NSW. Other states have also got outbreaks down to zero with lockdowns. Now, one state is out of control, and they're the one state to take pride in not locking down. All seems pretty logical to me. The irony is if NSW had stuck to their plan of not locking down they wouldnt be in this mess How? NSW have always had the least compliance. We knew that at the start and thats why their not locking down approach worked for their demographic. They were on top of things, they shouldnt have changed tact until they were no longer on top of things https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSVqLHghLpw You've literally posted a response to your own snap lockdowns. Nah it's your logic lockdowns causing more covid and you know it. In 2015 85% of people who died in car accidents in Australia were wearing seatbelts, so clearly seatbelts should be banned. I'm glad you use this thread as a place to vent and I respect that and usually scroll past your posts, but the smugness of your "what now Victoria" compelled me to reply. I only regret that I didn't ask you to return that respect and instead tried to debate you on the facts, which is clearly pointless as you've got your own.
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Burztur
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Group: Forum Members
Posts: 9.1K,
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+xWhere are they getting the money and sourcing the microchips they are apparently using in vaccines to inject in everyone? There’s a been a global shortage. Seriously, some lucky factory employing around 200,000 secret workers to meet demand must be making over a trillion.
Even small factories are getting billions to just meet car makers demand - let alone enough for every person on the planet. The secret cabal are very well funded and resourced. Didn't you know that a shortage exists BECAUSE of the secret manufacturing! Sheesh!
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bluebird2
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Group: Forum Members
Posts: 648,
Visits: 0
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+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+xRemember when Australia thought that if you go into a stage 4 lockdown with masks for 3-7 days after the first case the problem goes away? Those were fun times What now Victoria? Yeah it worked several times, but with other states sending us other cases so many times eventually we were going to have a worse wave. We're still seeing big proportions of new cases in iso so hopefully we'll run it down soon. It never worked. It was just a case of the states announcing a lockdown and then declaring success and patting themselves on the back (what NSW did in their first and second week really) I'll give an example. When QLD went into lockdown with the virus already under control it meant two things: 1/ They werent able to test the efficiency of their response. 2/ They werent able to test the efficiency of the compliance to the response. You literally cant catch the virus unless there is actual activity regardless of what you do. If states declared success when people werent even doing the right thing, then they would have been working on the assumption that everybody had done the right thing when they went into lockdown NSW are in the situation they are in because they dont understand the problem. Australia created the myth of snap lockdowns but we have seen it fail not only for NSW, but three consecutive times since May for Victoria, for the ACT, and even QLD This virus doesnt respond to popular belief. The virus is the virus and things either work or they dont work. And there isnt a single state / territory that gives me any confidence they know what they are doing. It really is a case of hoping things just go away I disagree, I believe it's worked several times already, but I concede I'll never bring you around to that view so I'll leave it at that. Pala seriously, the lockdowns are like using steriod creams, camaflouges whats really underneath. Like a calm before the storm. They worked to a degree the first strain, like I've said many times we've been lucky, not because what the Prems CHO's have done we've been lucky ! Delta is a strong one nobody was going to contain it. Other states sending it lol, was gonna come from any angle, hard lockdowns/curfews/oh the ring of steel, nothing was going to keep it out no matter its entry. The main blame game is people in/from both our States who DGAF re not doing the right thing. We got delta down to zero with lockdown 5 in Victoria, before it came back from NSW. Other states have also got outbreaks down to zero with lockdowns. Now, one state is out of control, and they're the one state to take pride in not locking down. All seems pretty logical to me. The irony is if NSW had stuck to their plan of not locking down they wouldnt be in this mess How? NSW have always had the least compliance. We knew that at the start and thats why their not locking down approach worked for their demographic. They were on top of things, they shouldnt have changed tact until they were no longer on top of things https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSVqLHghLpw You've literally posted a response to your own snap lockdowns. Nah it's your logic lockdowns causing more covid and you know it. In 2015 85% of people who died in car accidents in Australia were wearing seatbelts, so clearly seatbelts should be banned. I'm glad you use this thread as a place to vent and I respect that and usually scroll past your posts, but the smugness of your "what now Victoria" compelled me to reply. I only regret that I didn't ask you to return that respect and instead tried to debate you on the facts, which is clearly pointless as you've got your own. I didnt say "lockdowns cause COVID" I said "COVID cant be beaten with a template response". In some instances a lockdown might trend the numbers downwards (there are 4 stages by the way) in other instances it might make things worse Australia bought into the mentality of a snap lockdown and declared its own success. I get no more satisfaction that Victoria are now 53 cases a day and have effectively been in lockdown since the middle of May than you do. Nor do I get satisfaction it has found its way into regional Victoria when Dan was banging on about a ring of steel for NSW for weeks The thing we both seem to agree on is that this isnt a game. Real people, real stakes, real loss. Its not wrong to ask for a real solution to a real problem and its not wrong to say lockdowns arent working (in these situations) when there is significant evidence that they arent And I whole heartedly apologise if I caused any offense. Thats not my style
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paladisious
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Group: Moderators
Posts: 39K,
Visits: 0
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+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+xRemember when Australia thought that if you go into a stage 4 lockdown with masks for 3-7 days after the first case the problem goes away? Those were fun times What now Victoria? Yeah it worked several times, but with other states sending us other cases so many times eventually we were going to have a worse wave. We're still seeing big proportions of new cases in iso so hopefully we'll run it down soon. It never worked. It was just a case of the states announcing a lockdown and then declaring success and patting themselves on the back (what NSW did in their first and second week really) I'll give an example. When QLD went into lockdown with the virus already under control it meant two things: 1/ They werent able to test the efficiency of their response. 2/ They werent able to test the efficiency of the compliance to the response. You literally cant catch the virus unless there is actual activity regardless of what you do. If states declared success when people werent even doing the right thing, then they would have been working on the assumption that everybody had done the right thing when they went into lockdown NSW are in the situation they are in because they dont understand the problem. Australia created the myth of snap lockdowns but we have seen it fail not only for NSW, but three consecutive times since May for Victoria, for the ACT, and even QLD This virus doesnt respond to popular belief. The virus is the virus and things either work or they dont work. And there isnt a single state / territory that gives me any confidence they know what they are doing. It really is a case of hoping things just go away I disagree, I believe it's worked several times already, but I concede I'll never bring you around to that view so I'll leave it at that. Pala seriously, the lockdowns are like using steriod creams, camaflouges whats really underneath. Like a calm before the storm. They worked to a degree the first strain, like I've said many times we've been lucky, not because what the Prems CHO's have done we've been lucky ! Delta is a strong one nobody was going to contain it. Other states sending it lol, was gonna come from any angle, hard lockdowns/curfews/oh the ring of steel, nothing was going to keep it out no matter its entry. The main blame game is people in/from both our States who DGAF re not doing the right thing. We got delta down to zero with lockdown 5 in Victoria, before it came back from NSW. Other states have also got outbreaks down to zero with lockdowns. Now, one state is out of control, and they're the one state to take pride in not locking down. All seems pretty logical to me. The irony is if NSW had stuck to their plan of not locking down they wouldnt be in this mess How? NSW have always had the least compliance. We knew that at the start and thats why their not locking down approach worked for their demographic. They were on top of things, they shouldnt have changed tact until they were no longer on top of things https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSVqLHghLpw You've literally posted a response to your own snap lockdowns. Nah it's your logic lockdowns causing more covid and you know it. In 2015 85% of people who died in car accidents in Australia were wearing seatbelts, so clearly seatbelts should be banned. I'm glad you use this thread as a place to vent and I respect that and usually scroll past your posts, but the smugness of your "what now Victoria" compelled me to reply. I only regret that I didn't ask you to return that respect and instead tried to debate you on the facts, which is clearly pointless as you've got your own. And I whole heartedly apologise if I caused any offense. Thats not my style That is appreciated.
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Burztur
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Group: Forum Members
Posts: 9.1K,
Visits: 0
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+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+xRemember when Australia thought that if you go into a stage 4 lockdown with masks for 3-7 days after the first case the problem goes away? Those were fun times What now Victoria? Yeah it worked several times, but with other states sending us other cases so many times eventually we were going to have a worse wave. We're still seeing big proportions of new cases in iso so hopefully we'll run it down soon. It never worked. It was just a case of the states announcing a lockdown and then declaring success and patting themselves on the back (what NSW did in their first and second week really) I'll give an example. When QLD went into lockdown with the virus already under control it meant two things: 1/ They werent able to test the efficiency of their response. 2/ They werent able to test the efficiency of the compliance to the response. You literally cant catch the virus unless there is actual activity regardless of what you do. If states declared success when people werent even doing the right thing, then they would have been working on the assumption that everybody had done the right thing when they went into lockdown NSW are in the situation they are in because they dont understand the problem. Australia created the myth of snap lockdowns but we have seen it fail not only for NSW, but three consecutive times since May for Victoria, for the ACT, and even QLD This virus doesnt respond to popular belief. The virus is the virus and things either work or they dont work. And there isnt a single state / territory that gives me any confidence they know what they are doing. It really is a case of hoping things just go away I disagree, I believe it's worked several times already, but I concede I'll never bring you around to that view so I'll leave it at that. Pala seriously, the lockdowns are like using steriod creams, camaflouges whats really underneath. Like a calm before the storm. They worked to a degree the first strain, like I've said many times we've been lucky, not because what the Prems CHO's have done we've been lucky ! Delta is a strong one nobody was going to contain it. Other states sending it lol, was gonna come from any angle, hard lockdowns/curfews/oh the ring of steel, nothing was going to keep it out no matter its entry. The main blame game is people in/from both our States who DGAF re not doing the right thing. We got delta down to zero with lockdown 5 in Victoria, before it came back from NSW. Other states have also got outbreaks down to zero with lockdowns. Now, one state is out of control, and they're the one state to take pride in not locking down. All seems pretty logical to me. The irony is if NSW had stuck to their plan of not locking down they wouldnt be in this mess How? Its about following the data. For example: Lets say there is significant evidence this is spreading in gyms: . If you close down gyms the numbers will go down . If you regulate face masks in supermarkets and public transport the impact will be null . If you force people in to gyms the numbers will go up The invert also applies. Lets say there is evidence of no transmission in playgrounds . If you close down playgrounds the social activity moves elsewhere for an increase in numbers . If you regulate face masks in supermarkets and public transport the impact will be null . If you leave playgrounds open the virus will trend downwards Before NSW went into lockdown they had social distancing to keep numbers down (hundreds of exposure sits and only a handful of cases at most per site). They also had contact tracing to isolate (not lockdown) key contacts within 24 hours. A bit of chasing ones tail but they were hitting over 90% of activity with every day. 20 cases but 0-1 in the community infectious. No different to December last year or June the year before. In contrast households and functions were almost 100% infections When they went into lockdown the social activity dispersed from being in COVID safe places (Australia has forgotten what COVID safe means) to private, indoors, during winter, and where transmission was worst. Anybody can speculate what the numbers could have been to suit their own arguement if there wasnt a lockdown, but modelling has always been wrong. What is undeniable is numbers were 20 a day with 1 in the community and are now 640 a day with many in the community Given this virus is a literal representation of social movement (it spreads no other way) it is undeniable the current numbers are a product of the lockdown. They didnt trend downwards, they are trending upwards NSW have always had the least compliance. We knew that at the start and thats why their not locking down approach worked for their demographic. They were on top of things, they shouldnt have changed tact until they were no longer on top of things Household transmission is inevitable with Delta. What we are seeing in NSW is that Delta is spreading between Essential Workers and Worksites. Without a lockdown, it would spread in those areas AND the Non-Essential.
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bluebird2
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Group: Forum Members
Posts: 648,
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+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+xRemember when Australia thought that if you go into a stage 4 lockdown with masks for 3-7 days after the first case the problem goes away? Those were fun times What now Victoria? Yeah it worked several times, but with other states sending us other cases so many times eventually we were going to have a worse wave. We're still seeing big proportions of new cases in iso so hopefully we'll run it down soon. It never worked. It was just a case of the states announcing a lockdown and then declaring success and patting themselves on the back (what NSW did in their first and second week really) I'll give an example. When QLD went into lockdown with the virus already under control it meant two things: 1/ They werent able to test the efficiency of their response. 2/ They werent able to test the efficiency of the compliance to the response. You literally cant catch the virus unless there is actual activity regardless of what you do. If states declared success when people werent even doing the right thing, then they would have been working on the assumption that everybody had done the right thing when they went into lockdown NSW are in the situation they are in because they dont understand the problem. Australia created the myth of snap lockdowns but we have seen it fail not only for NSW, but three consecutive times since May for Victoria, for the ACT, and even QLD This virus doesnt respond to popular belief. The virus is the virus and things either work or they dont work. And there isnt a single state / territory that gives me any confidence they know what they are doing. It really is a case of hoping things just go away I disagree, I believe it's worked several times already, but I concede I'll never bring you around to that view so I'll leave it at that. Pala seriously, the lockdowns are like using steriod creams, camaflouges whats really underneath. Like a calm before the storm. They worked to a degree the first strain, like I've said many times we've been lucky, not because what the Prems CHO's have done we've been lucky ! Delta is a strong one nobody was going to contain it. Other states sending it lol, was gonna come from any angle, hard lockdowns/curfews/oh the ring of steel, nothing was going to keep it out no matter its entry. The main blame game is people in/from both our States who DGAF re not doing the right thing. We got delta down to zero with lockdown 5 in Victoria, before it came back from NSW. Other states have also got outbreaks down to zero with lockdowns. Now, one state is out of control, and they're the one state to take pride in not locking down. All seems pretty logical to me. The irony is if NSW had stuck to their plan of not locking down they wouldnt be in this mess How? Its about following the data. For example: Lets say there is significant evidence this is spreading in gyms: . If you close down gyms the numbers will go down . If you regulate face masks in supermarkets and public transport the impact will be null . If you force people in to gyms the numbers will go up The invert also applies. Lets say there is evidence of no transmission in playgrounds . If you close down playgrounds the social activity moves elsewhere for an increase in numbers . If you regulate face masks in supermarkets and public transport the impact will be null . If you leave playgrounds open the virus will trend downwards Before NSW went into lockdown they had social distancing to keep numbers down (hundreds of exposure sits and only a handful of cases at most per site). They also had contact tracing to isolate (not lockdown) key contacts within 24 hours. A bit of chasing ones tail but they were hitting over 90% of activity with every day. 20 cases but 0-1 in the community infectious. No different to December last year or June the year before. In contrast households and functions were almost 100% infections When they went into lockdown the social activity dispersed from being in COVID safe places (Australia has forgotten what COVID safe means) to private, indoors, during winter, and where transmission was worst. Anybody can speculate what the numbers could have been to suit their own arguement if there wasnt a lockdown, but modelling has always been wrong. What is undeniable is numbers were 20 a day with 1 in the community and are now 640 a day with many in the community Given this virus is a literal representation of social movement (it spreads no other way) it is undeniable the current numbers are a product of the lockdown. They didnt trend downwards, they are trending upwards NSW have always had the least compliance. We knew that at the start and thats why their not locking down approach worked for their demographic. They were on top of things, they shouldnt have changed tact until they were no longer on top of things Household transmission is inevitable with Delta. What we are seeing in NSW is that Delta is spreading between Essential Workers and Worksites. Without a lockdown, it would spread in those areas AND the Non-Essential. We saw what would have happened without a lockdown. 20 cases a day. Exposure sites had between 0 and 6 cases. Same in Victoria and everywhere else. Hundreds of sites, dozens of cases. And we saw in December last year the same thing and it flat lined at 20 a day before dipping The exposure sites are neither here nor there. They are COVID safe. Not only that but they are shut down within 24 hours and everybody isolated. Isolation is different to a lockdown because you cant leave your house so you have the limited resources forcibly isolating 95% of the virus What has happened in NSW is the viral activity was chased into households, increases exponentially, and then more activity winds up going to essential work places, which then goes back home and repeats. More cases means more people infected which statistically means more essential people infected which means more workplaces infected. Thats what caused the increase in work place activity, not the other way around
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sydneyfc1987
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Group: Forum Members
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+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+xRemember when Australia thought that if you go into a stage 4 lockdown with masks for 3-7 days after the first case the problem goes away? Those were fun times What now Victoria? Yeah it worked several times, but with other states sending us other cases so many times eventually we were going to have a worse wave. We're still seeing big proportions of new cases in iso so hopefully we'll run it down soon. It never worked. It was just a case of the states announcing a lockdown and then declaring success and patting themselves on the back (what NSW did in their first and second week really) I'll give an example. When QLD went into lockdown with the virus already under control it meant two things: 1/ They werent able to test the efficiency of their response. 2/ They werent able to test the efficiency of the compliance to the response. You literally cant catch the virus unless there is actual activity regardless of what you do. If states declared success when people werent even doing the right thing, then they would have been working on the assumption that everybody had done the right thing when they went into lockdown NSW are in the situation they are in because they dont understand the problem. Australia created the myth of snap lockdowns but we have seen it fail not only for NSW, but three consecutive times since May for Victoria, for the ACT, and even QLD This virus doesnt respond to popular belief. The virus is the virus and things either work or they dont work. And there isnt a single state / territory that gives me any confidence they know what they are doing. It really is a case of hoping things just go away I disagree, I believe it's worked several times already, but I concede I'll never bring you around to that view so I'll leave it at that. Pala seriously, the lockdowns are like using steriod creams, camaflouges whats really underneath. Like a calm before the storm. They worked to a degree the first strain, like I've said many times we've been lucky, not because what the Prems CHO's have done we've been lucky ! Delta is a strong one nobody was going to contain it. Other states sending it lol, was gonna come from any angle, hard lockdowns/curfews/oh the ring of steel, nothing was going to keep it out no matter its entry. The main blame game is people in/from both our States who DGAF re not doing the right thing. We got delta down to zero with lockdown 5 in Victoria, before it came back from NSW. Other states have also got outbreaks down to zero with lockdowns. Now, one state is out of control, and they're the one state to take pride in not locking down. All seems pretty logical to me. The irony is if NSW had stuck to their plan of not locking down they wouldnt be in this mess How? Its about following the data. For example: Lets say there is significant evidence this is spreading in gyms: . If you close down gyms the numbers will go down . If you regulate face masks in supermarkets and public transport the impact will be null . If you force people in to gyms the numbers will go up The invert also applies. Lets say there is evidence of no transmission in playgrounds . If you close down playgrounds the social activity moves elsewhere for an increase in numbers . If you regulate face masks in supermarkets and public transport the impact will be null . If you leave playgrounds open the virus will trend downwards Before NSW went into lockdown they had social distancing to keep numbers down (hundreds of exposure sits and only a handful of cases at most per site). They also had contact tracing to isolate (not lockdown) key contacts within 24 hours. A bit of chasing ones tail but they were hitting over 90% of activity with every day. 20 cases but 0-1 in the community infectious. No different to December last year or June the year before. In contrast households and functions were almost 100% infections When they went into lockdown the social activity dispersed from being in COVID safe places (Australia has forgotten what COVID safe means) to private, indoors, during winter, and where transmission was worst. Anybody can speculate what the numbers could have been to suit their own arguement if there wasnt a lockdown, but modelling has always been wrong. What is undeniable is numbers were 20 a day with 1 in the community and are now 640 a day with many in the community Given this virus is a literal representation of social movement (it spreads no other way) it is undeniable the current numbers are a product of the lockdown. They didnt trend downwards, they are trending upwards NSW have always had the least compliance. We knew that at the start and thats why their not locking down approach worked for their demographic. They were on top of things, they shouldnt have changed tact until they were no longer on top of things Household transmission is inevitable with Delta. What we are seeing in NSW is that Delta is spreading between Essential Workers and Worksites. Without a lockdown, it would spread in those areas AND the Non-Essential. Without a lockdown we'd be up to 10k cases a day by now and hospitals would be overflowing. This sucks and I don't like a lot of the certain rules (a lot of them are simply to make things easier for the cops rather than actual health measures which is disgusting in my book). However, until we get to a point where just about everybody above 16 that wants a vaccines had the opportunity we cannot begin to open up.
(VAR) IS NAVY BLUE
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bluebird2
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Group: Forum Members
Posts: 648,
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+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+xRemember when Australia thought that if you go into a stage 4 lockdown with masks for 3-7 days after the first case the problem goes away? Those were fun times What now Victoria? Yeah it worked several times, but with other states sending us other cases so many times eventually we were going to have a worse wave. We're still seeing big proportions of new cases in iso so hopefully we'll run it down soon. It never worked. It was just a case of the states announcing a lockdown and then declaring success and patting themselves on the back (what NSW did in their first and second week really) I'll give an example. When QLD went into lockdown with the virus already under control it meant two things: 1/ They werent able to test the efficiency of their response. 2/ They werent able to test the efficiency of the compliance to the response. You literally cant catch the virus unless there is actual activity regardless of what you do. If states declared success when people werent even doing the right thing, then they would have been working on the assumption that everybody had done the right thing when they went into lockdown NSW are in the situation they are in because they dont understand the problem. Australia created the myth of snap lockdowns but we have seen it fail not only for NSW, but three consecutive times since May for Victoria, for the ACT, and even QLD This virus doesnt respond to popular belief. The virus is the virus and things either work or they dont work. And there isnt a single state / territory that gives me any confidence they know what they are doing. It really is a case of hoping things just go away I disagree, I believe it's worked several times already, but I concede I'll never bring you around to that view so I'll leave it at that. Pala seriously, the lockdowns are like using steriod creams, camaflouges whats really underneath. Like a calm before the storm. They worked to a degree the first strain, like I've said many times we've been lucky, not because what the Prems CHO's have done we've been lucky ! Delta is a strong one nobody was going to contain it. Other states sending it lol, was gonna come from any angle, hard lockdowns/curfews/oh the ring of steel, nothing was going to keep it out no matter its entry. The main blame game is people in/from both our States who DGAF re not doing the right thing. We got delta down to zero with lockdown 5 in Victoria, before it came back from NSW. Other states have also got outbreaks down to zero with lockdowns. Now, one state is out of control, and they're the one state to take pride in not locking down. All seems pretty logical to me. The irony is if NSW had stuck to their plan of not locking down they wouldnt be in this mess How? Its about following the data. For example: Lets say there is significant evidence this is spreading in gyms: . If you close down gyms the numbers will go down . If you regulate face masks in supermarkets and public transport the impact will be null . If you force people in to gyms the numbers will go up The invert also applies. Lets say there is evidence of no transmission in playgrounds . If you close down playgrounds the social activity moves elsewhere for an increase in numbers . If you regulate face masks in supermarkets and public transport the impact will be null . If you leave playgrounds open the virus will trend downwards Before NSW went into lockdown they had social distancing to keep numbers down (hundreds of exposure sits and only a handful of cases at most per site). They also had contact tracing to isolate (not lockdown) key contacts within 24 hours. A bit of chasing ones tail but they were hitting over 90% of activity with every day. 20 cases but 0-1 in the community infectious. No different to December last year or June the year before. In contrast households and functions were almost 100% infections When they went into lockdown the social activity dispersed from being in COVID safe places (Australia has forgotten what COVID safe means) to private, indoors, during winter, and where transmission was worst. Anybody can speculate what the numbers could have been to suit their own arguement if there wasnt a lockdown, but modelling has always been wrong. What is undeniable is numbers were 20 a day with 1 in the community and are now 640 a day with many in the community Given this virus is a literal representation of social movement (it spreads no other way) it is undeniable the current numbers are a product of the lockdown. They didnt trend downwards, they are trending upwards NSW have always had the least compliance. We knew that at the start and thats why their not locking down approach worked for their demographic. They were on top of things, they shouldnt have changed tact until they were no longer on top of things Household transmission is inevitable with Delta. What we are seeing in NSW is that Delta is spreading between Essential Workers and Worksites. Without a lockdown, it would spread in those areas AND the Non-Essential. Without a lockdown we'd be up to 10k cases a day by now and hospitals would be overflowing. Thats the kind of modelling things have been based on. Just a "scary sounding" figure based on nothing. I recall you arguing the same thing for Victoria last year If you can provide a detailed post outlining how NSW would have been recording 10k cases today, from 20 cases a day in June, with social distancing in place (as well as contact tracing, alert and awareness, and a panicked public hitting vaccines by the thousands), then I'll silence myself from this thread for good As I said, this virus is literally a reflection of social movement 10k cases a day is just impossible. In fact I'll bet my place on this forum it doesnt reach more than 2k a day
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sydneyfc1987
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Group: Forum Members
Posts: 10K,
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+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+xRemember when Australia thought that if you go into a stage 4 lockdown with masks for 3-7 days after the first case the problem goes away? Those were fun times What now Victoria? Yeah it worked several times, but with other states sending us other cases so many times eventually we were going to have a worse wave. We're still seeing big proportions of new cases in iso so hopefully we'll run it down soon. It never worked. It was just a case of the states announcing a lockdown and then declaring success and patting themselves on the back (what NSW did in their first and second week really) I'll give an example. When QLD went into lockdown with the virus already under control it meant two things: 1/ They werent able to test the efficiency of their response. 2/ They werent able to test the efficiency of the compliance to the response. You literally cant catch the virus unless there is actual activity regardless of what you do. If states declared success when people werent even doing the right thing, then they would have been working on the assumption that everybody had done the right thing when they went into lockdown NSW are in the situation they are in because they dont understand the problem. Australia created the myth of snap lockdowns but we have seen it fail not only for NSW, but three consecutive times since May for Victoria, for the ACT, and even QLD This virus doesnt respond to popular belief. The virus is the virus and things either work or they dont work. And there isnt a single state / territory that gives me any confidence they know what they are doing. It really is a case of hoping things just go away I disagree, I believe it's worked several times already, but I concede I'll never bring you around to that view so I'll leave it at that. Pala seriously, the lockdowns are like using steriod creams, camaflouges whats really underneath. Like a calm before the storm. They worked to a degree the first strain, like I've said many times we've been lucky, not because what the Prems CHO's have done we've been lucky ! Delta is a strong one nobody was going to contain it. Other states sending it lol, was gonna come from any angle, hard lockdowns/curfews/oh the ring of steel, nothing was going to keep it out no matter its entry. The main blame game is people in/from both our States who DGAF re not doing the right thing. We got delta down to zero with lockdown 5 in Victoria, before it came back from NSW. Other states have also got outbreaks down to zero with lockdowns. Now, one state is out of control, and they're the one state to take pride in not locking down. All seems pretty logical to me. The irony is if NSW had stuck to their plan of not locking down they wouldnt be in this mess How? Its about following the data. For example: Lets say there is significant evidence this is spreading in gyms: . If you close down gyms the numbers will go down . If you regulate face masks in supermarkets and public transport the impact will be null . If you force people in to gyms the numbers will go up The invert also applies. Lets say there is evidence of no transmission in playgrounds . If you close down playgrounds the social activity moves elsewhere for an increase in numbers . If you regulate face masks in supermarkets and public transport the impact will be null . If you leave playgrounds open the virus will trend downwards Before NSW went into lockdown they had social distancing to keep numbers down (hundreds of exposure sits and only a handful of cases at most per site). They also had contact tracing to isolate (not lockdown) key contacts within 24 hours. A bit of chasing ones tail but they were hitting over 90% of activity with every day. 20 cases but 0-1 in the community infectious. No different to December last year or June the year before. In contrast households and functions were almost 100% infections When they went into lockdown the social activity dispersed from being in COVID safe places (Australia has forgotten what COVID safe means) to private, indoors, during winter, and where transmission was worst. Anybody can speculate what the numbers could have been to suit their own arguement if there wasnt a lockdown, but modelling has always been wrong. What is undeniable is numbers were 20 a day with 1 in the community and are now 640 a day with many in the community Given this virus is a literal representation of social movement (it spreads no other way) it is undeniable the current numbers are a product of the lockdown. They didnt trend downwards, they are trending upwards NSW have always had the least compliance. We knew that at the start and thats why their not locking down approach worked for their demographic. They were on top of things, they shouldnt have changed tact until they were no longer on top of things Household transmission is inevitable with Delta. What we are seeing in NSW is that Delta is spreading between Essential Workers and Worksites. Without a lockdown, it would spread in those areas AND the Non-Essential. We saw what would have happened without a lockdown. 20 cases a day. Exposure sites had between 0 and 6 cases. Same in Victoria and everywhere else. Hundreds of sites, dozens of cases. And we saw in December last year the same thing and it flat lined at 20 a day before dipping The exposure sites are neither here nor there. They are COVID safe. Not only that but they are shut down within 24 hours and everybody isolated. Isolation is different to a lockdown because you cant leave your house so you have the limited resources forcibly isolating 95% of the virus What has happened in NSW is the viral activity was chased into households, increases exponentially, and then more activity winds up going to essential work places, which then goes back home and repeats. More cases means more people infected which statistically means more essential people infected which means more workplaces infected. Thats what caused the increase in work place activity, not the other way around This doesn't make sense. With or without a lockdown people are still living in households and are working in essential workplaces/worksites. A lockdown cuts out other potential indoor activities such as non-essential shopping, hospitality, gathering in houses, large events etc which drives down potential places where transmission can occur.
(VAR) IS NAVY BLUE
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bluebird2
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Group: Forum Members
Posts: 648,
Visits: 0
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+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+xRemember when Australia thought that if you go into a stage 4 lockdown with masks for 3-7 days after the first case the problem goes away? Those were fun times What now Victoria? Yeah it worked several times, but with other states sending us other cases so many times eventually we were going to have a worse wave. We're still seeing big proportions of new cases in iso so hopefully we'll run it down soon. It never worked. It was just a case of the states announcing a lockdown and then declaring success and patting themselves on the back (what NSW did in their first and second week really) I'll give an example. When QLD went into lockdown with the virus already under control it meant two things: 1/ They werent able to test the efficiency of their response. 2/ They werent able to test the efficiency of the compliance to the response. You literally cant catch the virus unless there is actual activity regardless of what you do. If states declared success when people werent even doing the right thing, then they would have been working on the assumption that everybody had done the right thing when they went into lockdown NSW are in the situation they are in because they dont understand the problem. Australia created the myth of snap lockdowns but we have seen it fail not only for NSW, but three consecutive times since May for Victoria, for the ACT, and even QLD This virus doesnt respond to popular belief. The virus is the virus and things either work or they dont work. And there isnt a single state / territory that gives me any confidence they know what they are doing. It really is a case of hoping things just go away I disagree, I believe it's worked several times already, but I concede I'll never bring you around to that view so I'll leave it at that. Pala seriously, the lockdowns are like using steriod creams, camaflouges whats really underneath. Like a calm before the storm. They worked to a degree the first strain, like I've said many times we've been lucky, not because what the Prems CHO's have done we've been lucky ! Delta is a strong one nobody was going to contain it. Other states sending it lol, was gonna come from any angle, hard lockdowns/curfews/oh the ring of steel, nothing was going to keep it out no matter its entry. The main blame game is people in/from both our States who DGAF re not doing the right thing. We got delta down to zero with lockdown 5 in Victoria, before it came back from NSW. Other states have also got outbreaks down to zero with lockdowns. Now, one state is out of control, and they're the one state to take pride in not locking down. All seems pretty logical to me. The irony is if NSW had stuck to their plan of not locking down they wouldnt be in this mess How? Its about following the data. For example: Lets say there is significant evidence this is spreading in gyms: . If you close down gyms the numbers will go down . If you regulate face masks in supermarkets and public transport the impact will be null . If you force people in to gyms the numbers will go up The invert also applies. Lets say there is evidence of no transmission in playgrounds . If you close down playgrounds the social activity moves elsewhere for an increase in numbers . If you regulate face masks in supermarkets and public transport the impact will be null . If you leave playgrounds open the virus will trend downwards Before NSW went into lockdown they had social distancing to keep numbers down (hundreds of exposure sits and only a handful of cases at most per site). They also had contact tracing to isolate (not lockdown) key contacts within 24 hours. A bit of chasing ones tail but they were hitting over 90% of activity with every day. 20 cases but 0-1 in the community infectious. No different to December last year or June the year before. In contrast households and functions were almost 100% infections When they went into lockdown the social activity dispersed from being in COVID safe places (Australia has forgotten what COVID safe means) to private, indoors, during winter, and where transmission was worst. Anybody can speculate what the numbers could have been to suit their own arguement if there wasnt a lockdown, but modelling has always been wrong. What is undeniable is numbers were 20 a day with 1 in the community and are now 640 a day with many in the community Given this virus is a literal representation of social movement (it spreads no other way) it is undeniable the current numbers are a product of the lockdown. They didnt trend downwards, they are trending upwards NSW have always had the least compliance. We knew that at the start and thats why their not locking down approach worked for their demographic. They were on top of things, they shouldnt have changed tact until they were no longer on top of things Household transmission is inevitable with Delta. What we are seeing in NSW is that Delta is spreading between Essential Workers and Worksites. Without a lockdown, it would spread in those areas AND the Non-Essential. We saw what would have happened without a lockdown. 20 cases a day. Exposure sites had between 0 and 6 cases. Same in Victoria and everywhere else. Hundreds of sites, dozens of cases. And we saw in December last year the same thing and it flat lined at 20 a day before dipping The exposure sites are neither here nor there. They are COVID safe. Not only that but they are shut down within 24 hours and everybody isolated. Isolation is different to a lockdown because you cant leave your house so you have the limited resources forcibly isolating 95% of the virus What has happened in NSW is the viral activity was chased into households, increases exponentially, and then more activity winds up going to essential work places, which then goes back home and repeats. More cases means more people infected which statistically means more essential people infected which means more workplaces infected. Thats what caused the increase in work place activity, not the other way around This doesn't make sense. With or without a lockdown people are still living in households and are working in essential workplaces/worksites. A lockdown cuts out other potential indoor activities such as non-essential shopping, hospitality, gathering in houses, large events etc which drives down potential places where transmission can occur. No because these things are COVID safe. If you and 5 of your mates catch up in a COVID safe place you have less chance of catching it then a private residence. In the early stages of the NSW outbreak there were 6 people who caught it from a school or work place but 30/36 who caught it at a private function Lockdown doesnt force people to disintegrate. They are still there. They are still moving. They are still socialising. The difference is they are doing so in places that arent COVID safe and dont have QR codes This is about forcing people into smart decisions. Its like with schoolies last year. It was going to happen and it was either going to be COVID safe or it wasnt. They chose right If you take away every choice somebody has then all you are left with is the one that creates the most viral activity. And thats what we have undeniably seen in NSW. Dont even take my posts for it, look at the change in language from the NSW response team in their daily press conferences The average person doesnt travel around from place to place. They live simple lives like school or work, go home and chill, maybe go to a few places on the weekend. Transmission is minimal. Once you force everybody out of a job then their only option is each other. Why would you shut down your second line of defence?
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bluebird2
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Group: Forum Members
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I'm going to explain with a real example
At the ass end of the Victorian outbreak last year when everybody wanted out and things were coming to a close there were 35 infections across 5 households spread from Melbourne to (I think) Geelong. What had happened was 1 household gave it to another, to a third, to a fourth, and finally a 5th (obviously this was breaching the rules)
Now if you imagine each of those households had 2 adults that worked essential services then thats 8 new work places that would have been infected. This is what I mean when I say the logic is backwards. Its not people getting infected from working essential and taking it home, its the other way around. Gladys said recently 70% of transmission was household and this chain of household infections is putting it in new work places
Now imagine without lockdown. Would those 5 households across a great distance have caught up in a short amount of time if they were preoccupied with school and work? Would contact tracers have found and isolated the original source before it had a chance to spread? Would they have instead caught up in a COVID safe place because there were more sensible options?
The thing to remember is if total stranger transmission is about 10% then you have to work out which is greater - more instances of stranger transmission in a society that has COVID restrictions in place or less instances household transmission in a society that has lockdown in place (but at greater potency). At 20 cases flatline, in three separate outbreaks, its obviously which the smallest component is
^ And by that I mean having 100 active cases passing it on to strangers will end up with less overall cases than 10 active cases passing it through a chain of households
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Burztur
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Group: Forum Members
Posts: 9.1K,
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+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+xRemember when Australia thought that if you go into a stage 4 lockdown with masks for 3-7 days after the first case the problem goes away? Those were fun times What now Victoria? Yeah it worked several times, but with other states sending us other cases so many times eventually we were going to have a worse wave. We're still seeing big proportions of new cases in iso so hopefully we'll run it down soon. It never worked. It was just a case of the states announcing a lockdown and then declaring success and patting themselves on the back (what NSW did in their first and second week really) I'll give an example. When QLD went into lockdown with the virus already under control it meant two things: 1/ They werent able to test the efficiency of their response. 2/ They werent able to test the efficiency of the compliance to the response. You literally cant catch the virus unless there is actual activity regardless of what you do. If states declared success when people werent even doing the right thing, then they would have been working on the assumption that everybody had done the right thing when they went into lockdown NSW are in the situation they are in because they dont understand the problem. Australia created the myth of snap lockdowns but we have seen it fail not only for NSW, but three consecutive times since May for Victoria, for the ACT, and even QLD This virus doesnt respond to popular belief. The virus is the virus and things either work or they dont work. And there isnt a single state / territory that gives me any confidence they know what they are doing. It really is a case of hoping things just go away I disagree, I believe it's worked several times already, but I concede I'll never bring you around to that view so I'll leave it at that. Pala seriously, the lockdowns are like using steriod creams, camaflouges whats really underneath. Like a calm before the storm. They worked to a degree the first strain, like I've said many times we've been lucky, not because what the Prems CHO's have done we've been lucky ! Delta is a strong one nobody was going to contain it. Other states sending it lol, was gonna come from any angle, hard lockdowns/curfews/oh the ring of steel, nothing was going to keep it out no matter its entry. The main blame game is people in/from both our States who DGAF re not doing the right thing. We got delta down to zero with lockdown 5 in Victoria, before it came back from NSW. Other states have also got outbreaks down to zero with lockdowns. Now, one state is out of control, and they're the one state to take pride in not locking down. All seems pretty logical to me. The irony is if NSW had stuck to their plan of not locking down they wouldnt be in this mess How? Its about following the data. For example: Lets say there is significant evidence this is spreading in gyms: . If you close down gyms the numbers will go down . If you regulate face masks in supermarkets and public transport the impact will be null . If you force people in to gyms the numbers will go up The invert also applies. Lets say there is evidence of no transmission in playgrounds . If you close down playgrounds the social activity moves elsewhere for an increase in numbers . If you regulate face masks in supermarkets and public transport the impact will be null . If you leave playgrounds open the virus will trend downwards Before NSW went into lockdown they had social distancing to keep numbers down (hundreds of exposure sits and only a handful of cases at most per site). They also had contact tracing to isolate (not lockdown) key contacts within 24 hours. A bit of chasing ones tail but they were hitting over 90% of activity with every day. 20 cases but 0-1 in the community infectious. No different to December last year or June the year before. In contrast households and functions were almost 100% infections When they went into lockdown the social activity dispersed from being in COVID safe places (Australia has forgotten what COVID safe means) to private, indoors, during winter, and where transmission was worst. Anybody can speculate what the numbers could have been to suit their own arguement if there wasnt a lockdown, but modelling has always been wrong. What is undeniable is numbers were 20 a day with 1 in the community and are now 640 a day with many in the community Given this virus is a literal representation of social movement (it spreads no other way) it is undeniable the current numbers are a product of the lockdown. They didnt trend downwards, they are trending upwards NSW have always had the least compliance. We knew that at the start and thats why their not locking down approach worked for their demographic. They were on top of things, they shouldnt have changed tact until they were no longer on top of things Household transmission is inevitable with Delta. What we are seeing in NSW is that Delta is spreading between Essential Workers and Worksites. Without a lockdown, it would spread in those areas AND the Non-Essential. We saw what would have happened without a lockdown. 20 cases a day. Exposure sites had between 0 and 6 cases. Same in Victoria and everywhere else. Hundreds of sites, dozens of cases. And we saw in December last year the same thing and it flat lined at 20 a day before dipping The exposure sites are neither here nor there. They are COVID safe. Not only that but they are shut down within 24 hours and everybody isolated. Isolation is different to a lockdown because you cant leave your house so you have the limited resources forcibly isolating 95% of the virus What has happened in NSW is the viral activity was chased into households, increases exponentially, and then more activity winds up going to essential work places, which then goes back home and repeats. More cases means more people infected which statistically means more essential people infected which means more workplaces infected. Thats what caused the increase in work place activity, not the other way around This doesn't make sense. With or without a lockdown people are still living in households and are working in essential workplaces/worksites. A lockdown cuts out other potential indoor activities such as non-essential shopping, hospitality, gathering in houses, large events etc which drives down potential places where transmission can occur. No because these things are COVID safe. If you and 5 of your mates catch up in a COVID safe place you have less chance of catching it then a private residence. In the early stages of the NSW outbreak there were 6 people who caught it from a school or work place but 30/36 who caught it at a private function
Lockdown doesnt force people to disintegrate. They are still there. They are still moving. They are still socialising. The difference is they are doing so in places that arent COVID safe and dont have QR codes This is about forcing people into smart decisions. Its like with schoolies last year. It was going to happen and it was either going to be COVID safe or it wasnt. They chose right If you take away every choice somebody has then all you are left with is the one that creates the most viral activity. And thats what we have undeniably seen in NSW. Dont even take my posts for it, look at the change in language from the NSW response team in their daily press conferences The average person doesnt travel around from place to place. They live simple lives like school or work, go home and chill, maybe go to a few places on the weekend. Transmission is minimal. Once you force everybody out of a job then their only option is each other. Why would you shut down your second line of defence? So you're saying that essential worksites are not COVID safe? That's a concern. The issue is Delta is getting through in these locations. The NSW press conference confirmed that most cases are from workers and households. It's not from people getting together illegally.
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Captain Haddock
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Group: Forum Members
Posts: 1.3K,
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+xThe hubris shown by multiple levels of Aus government on this topic is astounding, and as much as the Premiers like to throw crap at Morrison and his vaccine stroll out, didnt see any of them expressing any urgency or concern earlier in the pandemic, Fark I even remember they stopped having regular national cabinet meetings because they had nothing to talk about, must have been too busy patting themselves on the back for doughnut days. Now that lockdowns dont have the same effect the stress you see is palpable, you could see the frustration at Dictator Dans presser today, its clear his lockdown isnt working as numbers are going up and he is now threatening even tougher restrictions to bring this under control. I really thought he was going to blow a gasket at one stage but for a well known control freak it must be difficult for him watching this slowly get away from him, wonder if Gladys will return any of the jibes he has been happy to throw her way, Next few months will be telling, but one thing for sure is we aint getting out of lockdown anytime soon The reason lockdowns aren't working is we need to lockdown harder. It might have some negative side effects in terms of the economy, mental health, alcohol abuse, suicide rates and stuff like that but as Karen and Ken say, if it saves just one life then it doesn't matter how many lives it costs. If people would just do as they're told we would have had months of consecutive donut days by now...
There are only two intellectually honest debate tactics: (a) pointing out errors or omissions in your opponent’s facts, or (b) pointing out errors or omissions in your opponent’s logic. All other debate tactics are intellectually dishonest - John T. Reed
The Most Popular Presidential Candidate Of All Time (TM) cant go to a sports stadium in the country he presides over. Figure that one out...
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bluebird2
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Group: Forum Members
Posts: 648,
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+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+xRemember when Australia thought that if you go into a stage 4 lockdown with masks for 3-7 days after the first case the problem goes away? Those were fun times What now Victoria? Yeah it worked several times, but with other states sending us other cases so many times eventually we were going to have a worse wave. We're still seeing big proportions of new cases in iso so hopefully we'll run it down soon. It never worked. It was just a case of the states announcing a lockdown and then declaring success and patting themselves on the back (what NSW did in their first and second week really) I'll give an example. When QLD went into lockdown with the virus already under control it meant two things: 1/ They werent able to test the efficiency of their response. 2/ They werent able to test the efficiency of the compliance to the response. You literally cant catch the virus unless there is actual activity regardless of what you do. If states declared success when people werent even doing the right thing, then they would have been working on the assumption that everybody had done the right thing when they went into lockdown NSW are in the situation they are in because they dont understand the problem. Australia created the myth of snap lockdowns but we have seen it fail not only for NSW, but three consecutive times since May for Victoria, for the ACT, and even QLD This virus doesnt respond to popular belief. The virus is the virus and things either work or they dont work. And there isnt a single state / territory that gives me any confidence they know what they are doing. It really is a case of hoping things just go away I disagree, I believe it's worked several times already, but I concede I'll never bring you around to that view so I'll leave it at that. Pala seriously, the lockdowns are like using steriod creams, camaflouges whats really underneath. Like a calm before the storm. They worked to a degree the first strain, like I've said many times we've been lucky, not because what the Prems CHO's have done we've been lucky ! Delta is a strong one nobody was going to contain it. Other states sending it lol, was gonna come from any angle, hard lockdowns/curfews/oh the ring of steel, nothing was going to keep it out no matter its entry. The main blame game is people in/from both our States who DGAF re not doing the right thing. We got delta down to zero with lockdown 5 in Victoria, before it came back from NSW. Other states have also got outbreaks down to zero with lockdowns. Now, one state is out of control, and they're the one state to take pride in not locking down. All seems pretty logical to me. The irony is if NSW had stuck to their plan of not locking down they wouldnt be in this mess How? Its about following the data. For example: Lets say there is significant evidence this is spreading in gyms: . If you close down gyms the numbers will go down . If you regulate face masks in supermarkets and public transport the impact will be null . If you force people in to gyms the numbers will go up The invert also applies. Lets say there is evidence of no transmission in playgrounds . If you close down playgrounds the social activity moves elsewhere for an increase in numbers . If you regulate face masks in supermarkets and public transport the impact will be null . If you leave playgrounds open the virus will trend downwards Before NSW went into lockdown they had social distancing to keep numbers down (hundreds of exposure sits and only a handful of cases at most per site). They also had contact tracing to isolate (not lockdown) key contacts within 24 hours. A bit of chasing ones tail but they were hitting over 90% of activity with every day. 20 cases but 0-1 in the community infectious. No different to December last year or June the year before. In contrast households and functions were almost 100% infections When they went into lockdown the social activity dispersed from being in COVID safe places (Australia has forgotten what COVID safe means) to private, indoors, during winter, and where transmission was worst. Anybody can speculate what the numbers could have been to suit their own arguement if there wasnt a lockdown, but modelling has always been wrong. What is undeniable is numbers were 20 a day with 1 in the community and are now 640 a day with many in the community Given this virus is a literal representation of social movement (it spreads no other way) it is undeniable the current numbers are a product of the lockdown. They didnt trend downwards, they are trending upwards NSW have always had the least compliance. We knew that at the start and thats why their not locking down approach worked for their demographic. They were on top of things, they shouldnt have changed tact until they were no longer on top of things Household transmission is inevitable with Delta. What we are seeing in NSW is that Delta is spreading between Essential Workers and Worksites. Without a lockdown, it would spread in those areas AND the Non-Essential. We saw what would have happened without a lockdown. 20 cases a day. Exposure sites had between 0 and 6 cases. Same in Victoria and everywhere else. Hundreds of sites, dozens of cases. And we saw in December last year the same thing and it flat lined at 20 a day before dipping The exposure sites are neither here nor there. They are COVID safe. Not only that but they are shut down within 24 hours and everybody isolated. Isolation is different to a lockdown because you cant leave your house so you have the limited resources forcibly isolating 95% of the virus What has happened in NSW is the viral activity was chased into households, increases exponentially, and then more activity winds up going to essential work places, which then goes back home and repeats. More cases means more people infected which statistically means more essential people infected which means more workplaces infected. Thats what caused the increase in work place activity, not the other way around This doesn't make sense. With or without a lockdown people are still living in households and are working in essential workplaces/worksites. A lockdown cuts out other potential indoor activities such as non-essential shopping, hospitality, gathering in houses, large events etc which drives down potential places where transmission can occur. No because these things are COVID safe. If you and 5 of your mates catch up in a COVID safe place you have less chance of catching it then a private residence. In the early stages of the NSW outbreak there were 6 people who caught it from a school or work place but 30/36 who caught it at a private function
Lockdown doesnt force people to disintegrate. They are still there. They are still moving. They are still socialising. The difference is they are doing so in places that arent COVID safe and dont have QR codes This is about forcing people into smart decisions. Its like with schoolies last year. It was going to happen and it was either going to be COVID safe or it wasnt. They chose right If you take away every choice somebody has then all you are left with is the one that creates the most viral activity. And thats what we have undeniably seen in NSW. Dont even take my posts for it, look at the change in language from the NSW response team in their daily press conferences The average person doesnt travel around from place to place. They live simple lives like school or work, go home and chill, maybe go to a few places on the weekend. Transmission is minimal. Once you force everybody out of a job then their only option is each other. Why would you shut down your second line of defence? So you're saying that essential worksites are not COVID safe? That's a concern. The issue is Delta is getting through in these locations. The NSW press conference confirmed that most cases are from workers and households. It's not from people getting together illegally. NSW said 70% of cases are from households. 70%. Not work places, households. If you visit a friend who visits a friend who visits a friend, they are households. Before lockdown you would have a single household infected, after lockdown there would be a chain of households https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/household-transmissions-account-for-70-per-cent-of-sydney-s-covid-cases-20210817-p58ji7.htmlTo claim that 680 cases a day is exclusively being caught and spread by essential workers is a paradox. Somebody catches it, passes it through a chain of households, one of those is an essential worker who takes it to work You have to look at actions, not words. If the virus is spreading through work places from essential workers then why is there a 9-5 curfew (work hours)? Why is regional NSW locked down? Why the ramp up of police and ADF? You cant tell me there isnt a compliance problem As I said. This virus isnt a beast walking around society. It is a literal reflection of social movement. A 1:1 ratio. Every single person in NSW today still exists and is still doing something. Restrictions are about driving and controlling that movement. Its about saying "You cant go to work but you can go to parks" or "You have to socially distance but you dont have to wear a mask". When you say "You're not allowed to do anything" then its 100% faith that people are going to sell their lives for the next 1 or 2 months. Not only that but you lose site on what works and what doesnt. No control I also dispute your claim that COVID safe doesnt work. There are hundreds of sites being visited by infected people and most turn up empty. There is too much evidence supporting the effectiveness of social distancing and awareness. Our compliance on this point along with quarantine at the shorelines is the reason we dont see 10,000 cases a day
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Burztur
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Group: Forum Members
Posts: 9.1K,
Visits: 0
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+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+xRemember when Australia thought that if you go into a stage 4 lockdown with masks for 3-7 days after the first case the problem goes away? Those were fun times What now Victoria? Yeah it worked several times, but with other states sending us other cases so many times eventually we were going to have a worse wave. We're still seeing big proportions of new cases in iso so hopefully we'll run it down soon. It never worked. It was just a case of the states announcing a lockdown and then declaring success and patting themselves on the back (what NSW did in their first and second week really) I'll give an example. When QLD went into lockdown with the virus already under control it meant two things: 1/ They werent able to test the efficiency of their response. 2/ They werent able to test the efficiency of the compliance to the response. You literally cant catch the virus unless there is actual activity regardless of what you do. If states declared success when people werent even doing the right thing, then they would have been working on the assumption that everybody had done the right thing when they went into lockdown NSW are in the situation they are in because they dont understand the problem. Australia created the myth of snap lockdowns but we have seen it fail not only for NSW, but three consecutive times since May for Victoria, for the ACT, and even QLD This virus doesnt respond to popular belief. The virus is the virus and things either work or they dont work. And there isnt a single state / territory that gives me any confidence they know what they are doing. It really is a case of hoping things just go away I disagree, I believe it's worked several times already, but I concede I'll never bring you around to that view so I'll leave it at that. Pala seriously, the lockdowns are like using steriod creams, camaflouges whats really underneath. Like a calm before the storm. They worked to a degree the first strain, like I've said many times we've been lucky, not because what the Prems CHO's have done we've been lucky ! Delta is a strong one nobody was going to contain it. Other states sending it lol, was gonna come from any angle, hard lockdowns/curfews/oh the ring of steel, nothing was going to keep it out no matter its entry. The main blame game is people in/from both our States who DGAF re not doing the right thing. We got delta down to zero with lockdown 5 in Victoria, before it came back from NSW. Other states have also got outbreaks down to zero with lockdowns. Now, one state is out of control, and they're the one state to take pride in not locking down. All seems pretty logical to me. The irony is if NSW had stuck to their plan of not locking down they wouldnt be in this mess How? Its about following the data. For example: Lets say there is significant evidence this is spreading in gyms: . If you close down gyms the numbers will go down . If you regulate face masks in supermarkets and public transport the impact will be null . If you force people in to gyms the numbers will go up The invert also applies. Lets say there is evidence of no transmission in playgrounds . If you close down playgrounds the social activity moves elsewhere for an increase in numbers . If you regulate face masks in supermarkets and public transport the impact will be null . If you leave playgrounds open the virus will trend downwards Before NSW went into lockdown they had social distancing to keep numbers down (hundreds of exposure sits and only a handful of cases at most per site). They also had contact tracing to isolate (not lockdown) key contacts within 24 hours. A bit of chasing ones tail but they were hitting over 90% of activity with every day. 20 cases but 0-1 in the community infectious. No different to December last year or June the year before. In contrast households and functions were almost 100% infections When they went into lockdown the social activity dispersed from being in COVID safe places (Australia has forgotten what COVID safe means) to private, indoors, during winter, and where transmission was worst. Anybody can speculate what the numbers could have been to suit their own arguement if there wasnt a lockdown, but modelling has always been wrong. What is undeniable is numbers were 20 a day with 1 in the community and are now 640 a day with many in the community Given this virus is a literal representation of social movement (it spreads no other way) it is undeniable the current numbers are a product of the lockdown. They didnt trend downwards, they are trending upwards NSW have always had the least compliance. We knew that at the start and thats why their not locking down approach worked for their demographic. They were on top of things, they shouldnt have changed tact until they were no longer on top of things Household transmission is inevitable with Delta. What we are seeing in NSW is that Delta is spreading between Essential Workers and Worksites. Without a lockdown, it would spread in those areas AND the Non-Essential. We saw what would have happened without a lockdown. 20 cases a day. Exposure sites had between 0 and 6 cases. Same in Victoria and everywhere else. Hundreds of sites, dozens of cases. And we saw in December last year the same thing and it flat lined at 20 a day before dipping The exposure sites are neither here nor there. They are COVID safe. Not only that but they are shut down within 24 hours and everybody isolated. Isolation is different to a lockdown because you cant leave your house so you have the limited resources forcibly isolating 95% of the virus What has happened in NSW is the viral activity was chased into households, increases exponentially, and then more activity winds up going to essential work places, which then goes back home and repeats. More cases means more people infected which statistically means more essential people infected which means more workplaces infected. Thats what caused the increase in work place activity, not the other way around This doesn't make sense. With or without a lockdown people are still living in households and are working in essential workplaces/worksites. A lockdown cuts out other potential indoor activities such as non-essential shopping, hospitality, gathering in houses, large events etc which drives down potential places where transmission can occur. No because these things are COVID safe. If you and 5 of your mates catch up in a COVID safe place you have less chance of catching it then a private residence. In the early stages of the NSW outbreak there were 6 people who caught it from a school or work place but 30/36 who caught it at a private function
Lockdown doesnt force people to disintegrate. They are still there. They are still moving. They are still socialising. The difference is they are doing so in places that arent COVID safe and dont have QR codes This is about forcing people into smart decisions. Its like with schoolies last year. It was going to happen and it was either going to be COVID safe or it wasnt. They chose right If you take away every choice somebody has then all you are left with is the one that creates the most viral activity. And thats what we have undeniably seen in NSW. Dont even take my posts for it, look at the change in language from the NSW response team in their daily press conferences The average person doesnt travel around from place to place. They live simple lives like school or work, go home and chill, maybe go to a few places on the weekend. Transmission is minimal. Once you force everybody out of a job then their only option is each other. Why would you shut down your second line of defence? So you're saying that essential worksites are not COVID safe? That's a concern. The issue is Delta is getting through in these locations. The NSW press conference confirmed that most cases are from workers and households. It's not from people getting together illegally. NSW said 70% of cases are from households. 70%. Not work places, households. If you visit a friend who visits a friend who visits a friend, they are households. Before lockdown you would have a single household infected, after lockdown there would be a chain of households https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/household-transmissions-account-for-70-per-cent-of-sydney-s-covid-cases-20210817-p58ji7.htmlTo claim that 680 cases a day is exclusively being caught and spread by essential workers is a paradox. Somebody catches it, passes it through a chain of households, one of those is an essential worker who takes it to work You have to look at actions, not words. If the virus is spreading through work places from essential workers then why is there a 9-5 curfew (work hours)? Why is regional NSW locked down? Why the ramp up of police and ADF? You cant tell me there isnt a compliance problem As I said. This virus isnt a beast walking around society. It is a literal reflection of social movement. A 1:1 ratio. Every single person in NSW today still exists and is still doing something. Restrictions are about driving and controlling that movement. Its about saying "You cant go to work but you can go to parks" or "You have to socially distance but you dont have to wear a mask". When you say "You're not allowed to do anything" then its 100% faith that people are going to sell their lives for the next 1 or 2 months. Not only that but you lose site on what works and what doesnt. No control I also dispute your claim that COVID safe doesnt work. There are hundreds of sites being visited by infected people and most turn up empty. There is too much evidence supporting the effectiveness of social distancing and awareness. Our compliance on this point along with quarantine at the shorelines is the reason we dont see 10,000 cases a day Quoting the same article:
NSW Health deputy secretary Jeremy McAnulty said people were failing to realise the danger of visiting other people’s homes, with about 100 people infected after visiting another household of someone with the virus in the past fortnight.
So the 70% is from someone getting it outside and spreading it amongst their family/home - not people visiting other households/chain activity. I agree that there has been non-compliance. The curfews were apparently driven by people "exercising" at late hours - https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-20/nsw-covid-19-curfews-introduced-in-lgas-of-concern/100395084I believe regional NSW is in lockdown because NSW Health knows they don't have the capacity/resources there. It sucks because many areas seem to be fine. As for police and ADF, that is to match the numbers increasing and also the anticipated protest activity. Workplaces are trying to be COVID safe but the virus is getting through. You see that when Coles, Woolies etc have all been listed as sites.
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bluebird2
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Group: Forum Members
Posts: 648,
Visits: 0
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+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+xRemember when Australia thought that if you go into a stage 4 lockdown with masks for 3-7 days after the first case the problem goes away? Those were fun times What now Victoria? Yeah it worked several times, but with other states sending us other cases so many times eventually we were going to have a worse wave. We're still seeing big proportions of new cases in iso so hopefully we'll run it down soon. It never worked. It was just a case of the states announcing a lockdown and then declaring success and patting themselves on the back (what NSW did in their first and second week really) I'll give an example. When QLD went into lockdown with the virus already under control it meant two things: 1/ They werent able to test the efficiency of their response. 2/ They werent able to test the efficiency of the compliance to the response. You literally cant catch the virus unless there is actual activity regardless of what you do. If states declared success when people werent even doing the right thing, then they would have been working on the assumption that everybody had done the right thing when they went into lockdown NSW are in the situation they are in because they dont understand the problem. Australia created the myth of snap lockdowns but we have seen it fail not only for NSW, but three consecutive times since May for Victoria, for the ACT, and even QLD This virus doesnt respond to popular belief. The virus is the virus and things either work or they dont work. And there isnt a single state / territory that gives me any confidence they know what they are doing. It really is a case of hoping things just go away I disagree, I believe it's worked several times already, but I concede I'll never bring you around to that view so I'll leave it at that. Pala seriously, the lockdowns are like using steriod creams, camaflouges whats really underneath. Like a calm before the storm. They worked to a degree the first strain, like I've said many times we've been lucky, not because what the Prems CHO's have done we've been lucky ! Delta is a strong one nobody was going to contain it. Other states sending it lol, was gonna come from any angle, hard lockdowns/curfews/oh the ring of steel, nothing was going to keep it out no matter its entry. The main blame game is people in/from both our States who DGAF re not doing the right thing. We got delta down to zero with lockdown 5 in Victoria, before it came back from NSW. Other states have also got outbreaks down to zero with lockdowns. Now, one state is out of control, and they're the one state to take pride in not locking down. All seems pretty logical to me. The irony is if NSW had stuck to their plan of not locking down they wouldnt be in this mess How? Its about following the data. For example: Lets say there is significant evidence this is spreading in gyms: . If you close down gyms the numbers will go down . If you regulate face masks in supermarkets and public transport the impact will be null . If you force people in to gyms the numbers will go up The invert also applies. Lets say there is evidence of no transmission in playgrounds . If you close down playgrounds the social activity moves elsewhere for an increase in numbers . If you regulate face masks in supermarkets and public transport the impact will be null . If you leave playgrounds open the virus will trend downwards Before NSW went into lockdown they had social distancing to keep numbers down (hundreds of exposure sits and only a handful of cases at most per site). They also had contact tracing to isolate (not lockdown) key contacts within 24 hours. A bit of chasing ones tail but they were hitting over 90% of activity with every day. 20 cases but 0-1 in the community infectious. No different to December last year or June the year before. In contrast households and functions were almost 100% infections When they went into lockdown the social activity dispersed from being in COVID safe places (Australia has forgotten what COVID safe means) to private, indoors, during winter, and where transmission was worst. Anybody can speculate what the numbers could have been to suit their own arguement if there wasnt a lockdown, but modelling has always been wrong. What is undeniable is numbers were 20 a day with 1 in the community and are now 640 a day with many in the community Given this virus is a literal representation of social movement (it spreads no other way) it is undeniable the current numbers are a product of the lockdown. They didnt trend downwards, they are trending upwards NSW have always had the least compliance. We knew that at the start and thats why their not locking down approach worked for their demographic. They were on top of things, they shouldnt have changed tact until they were no longer on top of things Household transmission is inevitable with Delta. What we are seeing in NSW is that Delta is spreading between Essential Workers and Worksites. Without a lockdown, it would spread in those areas AND the Non-Essential. We saw what would have happened without a lockdown. 20 cases a day. Exposure sites had between 0 and 6 cases. Same in Victoria and everywhere else. Hundreds of sites, dozens of cases. And we saw in December last year the same thing and it flat lined at 20 a day before dipping The exposure sites are neither here nor there. They are COVID safe. Not only that but they are shut down within 24 hours and everybody isolated. Isolation is different to a lockdown because you cant leave your house so you have the limited resources forcibly isolating 95% of the virus What has happened in NSW is the viral activity was chased into households, increases exponentially, and then more activity winds up going to essential work places, which then goes back home and repeats. More cases means more people infected which statistically means more essential people infected which means more workplaces infected. Thats what caused the increase in work place activity, not the other way around This doesn't make sense. With or without a lockdown people are still living in households and are working in essential workplaces/worksites. A lockdown cuts out other potential indoor activities such as non-essential shopping, hospitality, gathering in houses, large events etc which drives down potential places where transmission can occur. No because these things are COVID safe. If you and 5 of your mates catch up in a COVID safe place you have less chance of catching it then a private residence. In the early stages of the NSW outbreak there were 6 people who caught it from a school or work place but 30/36 who caught it at a private function
Lockdown doesnt force people to disintegrate. They are still there. They are still moving. They are still socialising. The difference is they are doing so in places that arent COVID safe and dont have QR codes This is about forcing people into smart decisions. Its like with schoolies last year. It was going to happen and it was either going to be COVID safe or it wasnt. They chose right If you take away every choice somebody has then all you are left with is the one that creates the most viral activity. And thats what we have undeniably seen in NSW. Dont even take my posts for it, look at the change in language from the NSW response team in their daily press conferences The average person doesnt travel around from place to place. They live simple lives like school or work, go home and chill, maybe go to a few places on the weekend. Transmission is minimal. Once you force everybody out of a job then their only option is each other. Why would you shut down your second line of defence? So you're saying that essential worksites are not COVID safe? That's a concern. The issue is Delta is getting through in these locations. The NSW press conference confirmed that most cases are from workers and households. It's not from people getting together illegally. NSW said 70% of cases are from households. 70%. Not work places, households. If you visit a friend who visits a friend who visits a friend, they are households. Before lockdown you would have a single household infected, after lockdown there would be a chain of households https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/household-transmissions-account-for-70-per-cent-of-sydney-s-covid-cases-20210817-p58ji7.htmlTo claim that 680 cases a day is exclusively being caught and spread by essential workers is a paradox. Somebody catches it, passes it through a chain of households, one of those is an essential worker who takes it to work You have to look at actions, not words. If the virus is spreading through work places from essential workers then why is there a 9-5 curfew (work hours)? Why is regional NSW locked down? Why the ramp up of police and ADF? You cant tell me there isnt a compliance problem As I said. This virus isnt a beast walking around society. It is a literal reflection of social movement. A 1:1 ratio. Every single person in NSW today still exists and is still doing something. Restrictions are about driving and controlling that movement. Its about saying "You cant go to work but you can go to parks" or "You have to socially distance but you dont have to wear a mask". When you say "You're not allowed to do anything" then its 100% faith that people are going to sell their lives for the next 1 or 2 months. Not only that but you lose site on what works and what doesnt. No control I also dispute your claim that COVID safe doesnt work. There are hundreds of sites being visited by infected people and most turn up empty. There is too much evidence supporting the effectiveness of social distancing and awareness. Our compliance on this point along with quarantine at the shorelines is the reason we dont see 10,000 cases a day Quoting the same article:
NSW Health deputy secretary Jeremy McAnulty said people were failing to realise the danger of visiting other people’s homes, with about 100 people infected after visiting another household of someone with the virus in the past fortnight.
So the 70% is from someone getting it outside and spreading it amongst their family/home - not people visiting other households/chain activity. I agree that there has been non-compliance. The curfews were apparently driven by people "exercising" at late hours - https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-20/nsw-covid-19-curfews-introduced-in-lgas-of-concern/100395084I believe regional NSW is in lockdown because NSW Health knows they don't have the capacity/resources there. It sucks because many areas seem to be fine. As for police and ADF, that is to match the numbers increasing and also the anticipated protest activity. Workplaces are trying to be COVID safe but the virus is getting through. You see that when Coles, Woolies etc have all been listed as sites. I think you misread your own quote People are getting it by visiting another household and then taking it to their household. It is the same chain of households we saw in Victoria last year
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bluebird2
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+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+xRemember when Australia thought that if you go into a stage 4 lockdown with masks for 3-7 days after the first case the problem goes away? Those were fun times What now Victoria? Yeah it worked several times, but with other states sending us other cases so many times eventually we were going to have a worse wave. We're still seeing big proportions of new cases in iso so hopefully we'll run it down soon. It never worked. It was just a case of the states announcing a lockdown and then declaring success and patting themselves on the back (what NSW did in their first and second week really) I'll give an example. When QLD went into lockdown with the virus already under control it meant two things: 1/ They werent able to test the efficiency of their response. 2/ They werent able to test the efficiency of the compliance to the response. You literally cant catch the virus unless there is actual activity regardless of what you do. If states declared success when people werent even doing the right thing, then they would have been working on the assumption that everybody had done the right thing when they went into lockdown NSW are in the situation they are in because they dont understand the problem. Australia created the myth of snap lockdowns but we have seen it fail not only for NSW, but three consecutive times since May for Victoria, for the ACT, and even QLD This virus doesnt respond to popular belief. The virus is the virus and things either work or they dont work. And there isnt a single state / territory that gives me any confidence they know what they are doing. It really is a case of hoping things just go away I disagree, I believe it's worked several times already, but I concede I'll never bring you around to that view so I'll leave it at that. Pala seriously, the lockdowns are like using steriod creams, camaflouges whats really underneath. Like a calm before the storm. They worked to a degree the first strain, like I've said many times we've been lucky, not because what the Prems CHO's have done we've been lucky ! Delta is a strong one nobody was going to contain it. Other states sending it lol, was gonna come from any angle, hard lockdowns/curfews/oh the ring of steel, nothing was going to keep it out no matter its entry. The main blame game is people in/from both our States who DGAF re not doing the right thing. We got delta down to zero with lockdown 5 in Victoria, before it came back from NSW. Other states have also got outbreaks down to zero with lockdowns. Now, one state is out of control, and they're the one state to take pride in not locking down. All seems pretty logical to me. The irony is if NSW had stuck to their plan of not locking down they wouldnt be in this mess How? Its about following the data. For example: Lets say there is significant evidence this is spreading in gyms: . If you close down gyms the numbers will go down . If you regulate face masks in supermarkets and public transport the impact will be null . If you force people in to gyms the numbers will go up The invert also applies. Lets say there is evidence of no transmission in playgrounds . If you close down playgrounds the social activity moves elsewhere for an increase in numbers . If you regulate face masks in supermarkets and public transport the impact will be null . If you leave playgrounds open the virus will trend downwards Before NSW went into lockdown they had social distancing to keep numbers down (hundreds of exposure sits and only a handful of cases at most per site). They also had contact tracing to isolate (not lockdown) key contacts within 24 hours. A bit of chasing ones tail but they were hitting over 90% of activity with every day. 20 cases but 0-1 in the community infectious. No different to December last year or June the year before. In contrast households and functions were almost 100% infections When they went into lockdown the social activity dispersed from being in COVID safe places (Australia has forgotten what COVID safe means) to private, indoors, during winter, and where transmission was worst. Anybody can speculate what the numbers could have been to suit their own arguement if there wasnt a lockdown, but modelling has always been wrong. What is undeniable is numbers were 20 a day with 1 in the community and are now 640 a day with many in the community Given this virus is a literal representation of social movement (it spreads no other way) it is undeniable the current numbers are a product of the lockdown. They didnt trend downwards, they are trending upwards NSW have always had the least compliance. We knew that at the start and thats why their not locking down approach worked for their demographic. They were on top of things, they shouldnt have changed tact until they were no longer on top of things Household transmission is inevitable with Delta. What we are seeing in NSW is that Delta is spreading between Essential Workers and Worksites. Without a lockdown, it would spread in those areas AND the Non-Essential. We saw what would have happened without a lockdown. 20 cases a day. Exposure sites had between 0 and 6 cases. Same in Victoria and everywhere else. Hundreds of sites, dozens of cases. And we saw in December last year the same thing and it flat lined at 20 a day before dipping The exposure sites are neither here nor there. They are COVID safe. Not only that but they are shut down within 24 hours and everybody isolated. Isolation is different to a lockdown because you cant leave your house so you have the limited resources forcibly isolating 95% of the virus What has happened in NSW is the viral activity was chased into households, increases exponentially, and then more activity winds up going to essential work places, which then goes back home and repeats. More cases means more people infected which statistically means more essential people infected which means more workplaces infected. Thats what caused the increase in work place activity, not the other way around This doesn't make sense. With or without a lockdown people are still living in households and are working in essential workplaces/worksites. A lockdown cuts out other potential indoor activities such as non-essential shopping, hospitality, gathering in houses, large events etc which drives down potential places where transmission can occur. No because these things are COVID safe. If you and 5 of your mates catch up in a COVID safe place you have less chance of catching it then a private residence. In the early stages of the NSW outbreak there were 6 people who caught it from a school or work place but 30/36 who caught it at a private function
Lockdown doesnt force people to disintegrate. They are still there. They are still moving. They are still socialising. The difference is they are doing so in places that arent COVID safe and dont have QR codes This is about forcing people into smart decisions. Its like with schoolies last year. It was going to happen and it was either going to be COVID safe or it wasnt. They chose right If you take away every choice somebody has then all you are left with is the one that creates the most viral activity. And thats what we have undeniably seen in NSW. Dont even take my posts for it, look at the change in language from the NSW response team in their daily press conferences The average person doesnt travel around from place to place. They live simple lives like school or work, go home and chill, maybe go to a few places on the weekend. Transmission is minimal. Once you force everybody out of a job then their only option is each other. Why would you shut down your second line of defence? So you're saying that essential worksites are not COVID safe? That's a concern. The issue is Delta is getting through in these locations. The NSW press conference confirmed that most cases are from workers and households. It's not from people getting together illegally. NSW said 70% of cases are from households. 70%. Not work places, households. If you visit a friend who visits a friend who visits a friend, they are households. Before lockdown you would have a single household infected, after lockdown there would be a chain of households https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/household-transmissions-account-for-70-per-cent-of-sydney-s-covid-cases-20210817-p58ji7.htmlTo claim that 680 cases a day is exclusively being caught and spread by essential workers is a paradox. Somebody catches it, passes it through a chain of households, one of those is an essential worker who takes it to work You have to look at actions, not words. If the virus is spreading through work places from essential workers then why is there a 9-5 curfew (work hours)? Why is regional NSW locked down? Why the ramp up of police and ADF? You cant tell me there isnt a compliance problem As I said. This virus isnt a beast walking around society. It is a literal reflection of social movement. A 1:1 ratio. Every single person in NSW today still exists and is still doing something. Restrictions are about driving and controlling that movement. Its about saying "You cant go to work but you can go to parks" or "You have to socially distance but you dont have to wear a mask". When you say "You're not allowed to do anything" then its 100% faith that people are going to sell their lives for the next 1 or 2 months. Not only that but you lose site on what works and what doesnt. No control I also dispute your claim that COVID safe doesnt work. There are hundreds of sites being visited by infected people and most turn up empty. There is too much evidence supporting the effectiveness of social distancing and awareness. Our compliance on this point along with quarantine at the shorelines is the reason we dont see 10,000 cases a day Workplaces are trying to be COVID safe but the virus is getting through. You see that when Coles, Woolies etc have all been listed as sites. Not wanting to double post but a different topic. My point is they are effective but not fail safe I think you can agree 6 people from a super market or work place is better than 100% of people from a household or function. Social distancing knocks back 90% of transmission which gives contact tracers a chance to do the rest When it is household to household it spreads like wildfire and contact tracers have no concept of where it is I dont even need to argue the point. I just have to post the daily figures
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paladisious
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A quarter of cases in Victoria now are under 10 years old, 44% under 20 and only 4% over the age of 60. Delta is a bitch.
Vaccination and lockdown also doing their part to drive down the cases in the oldies of course, but it's clear that with Delta kids are no longer on the sidelines.
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tsf
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I never thought anyone would beat our record in Victoria all things come to an end. Congratulations to Gladys and her team, they’ve worked hard and they’ve throughly deserved to break our record.
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paladisious
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+xI never thought anyone would beat our record in Victoria all things come to an end. Congratulations to Gladys and her team, they’ve worked hard and they’ve throughly deserved to break our record. And only 149 of them linked and 138 confirmed to be in iso, bloody hell.
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Podiacide
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Hate to say I told you so:
*Kids would be the major source of spread and they are harder to get to behave covid safe
* Because of Delta and because most cases in young people are asympotmatic many people who have it arent getting test because they have no symptoms
* All states now want 12-16 yos to be included in vaccination targets - something I also predicted.
* Most State Premiers now saying there is likelihood of lockdowns even after 80%. As predicted, only Gladys is saying she will open up.
So here's some more predictions:
* If states insist vaccination targets must include all children we will not hit those targets for at least 3 months after we hit 80% adults. Why? It will be nothing to do with supply. Parents have far more vaccine hesistancy towards vaccinating their kids even if they are vaccinated themselves and no country in the world has approved vaccines for under 12s and we know how slow our TGA is at approving vaccines.
* national cabinet will fall apart around October as Gladys eases restrictions for vaccinated citizens in NSW and other states lose their mind (Good luck ACT if they want to keep Covid zero policy). Not sure if she will hold the line on that if cases suddenly spike again.
* melb will lose AFL grand final, tennis and F1 grand prix as we here will have very tight restrictions till the end of the year.
* To all the posters on here who keep saying: "we will open up when we get everyone has had a chance to get a vaccine - I'm very sure this wont happen even though I badly want it to be the policy. Too many states hellbent on covid zero, too many shitscared citizens demanding covid zero, Fed election next year - SCOMO wont be taking any risks and Albo's base are pro covid zero, pro lockdowns.
NSW and VIC are truly fucked.
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paladisious
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+x* To all the posters on here who keep saying: "we will open up when we get everyone has had a chance to get a vaccine - I'm very sure this wont happen even though I badly want it to be the policy. Too many states hellbent on covid zero, too many shitscared citizens demanding covid zero, Fed election next year - SCOMO wont be taking any risks and Albo's base are pro covid zero, pro lockdowns. Dan just said that zero isn't necessary to open up once we reach the vaccine targets just now in the presser, although of course as low as possible is what he wants. Because of Gladys' late start NSW are going to be lockdown until they reach that target, fortunately in Victoria we have a chance to beat it first.
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Podiacide
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+x+x* To all the posters on here who keep saying: "we will open up when we get everyone has had a chance to get a vaccine - I'm very sure this wont happen even though I badly want it to be the policy. Too many states hellbent on covid zero, too many shitscared citizens demanding covid zero, Fed election next year - SCOMO wont be taking any risks and Albo's base are pro covid zero, pro lockdowns. Dan just said that zero isn't necessary to open up once we reach the vaccine targets just now in the presser, although of course as low as possible is what he wants. Yes and SCOMO is saying NSW must get as low as possible but what does that mean when all the "experts" are saying we cant open up till cases are very low - below 50 or so. In light of what is happening in other highly vaccinated countries like Israel and Iceland - does anyone think NSW will get to below 50 cases again? And when restrictions ease and case numbers go back up again (but deaths dont go sky high) do you really think non-NSW states will not reimpose restrictions? Jesus, the NSW Health Minister today talking about the NSW health system being overwhelmed with 4 deaths per day. It will get higher than that in unvaccinated populations in NSW when restrictions ease. And the NSW health minister saying today that rule breakers mean we will never get back to a normal life - but arent the vaccines going to get us back to normal life? Lockdowns dont work for Delta unless you basically imprison everyone in their own homes. And Dan today said if he gets advice he will consider tighter restrictions - pure utter madness. How did it come to be that Chief Public Health Officers dont have mental health experts advising them that this is killing people? Do the Premiers really think we will have compliance to lockdowns when vaccination rates hit 70% and when they are still telling us then that COVID could cause deaths - basically deaths in those who didnt want to be vaccinated. There is no sustainable exit plan. A sizeable majority of the population are emotionally welded to the idea of Covid zero and its very hard to rationally appeal to people emotionally tied to a belief they have tightly held for last 18 months.
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Podiacide
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Wow, the protests in Melb are really big in light of all the cops, the threat of $5k fines and warnings that every protestor would be fined. They are just walking straight past the cops, too many of them for police to handle
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AJF
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+xWow, the protests in Melb are really big in light of all the cops, the threat of $5k fines and warnings that every protestor would be fined. They are just walking straight past the cops, too many of them for police to handle Link to some video https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-21/anti-lockdown-protests-in-melbourne-turn-violent/13508802
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