It's very interesting. I think AFL has reached it's peak in terms of growth. The only places in which they could possibly expand is Tassie or Canberra. I don't think there is enough support down there. While I could see another 3 teams up here in QLD and one at Perth. Another in NZ and maybe one in PNG. I think the AFL is banking on a greater percentage of the market share in QLD and NSW in 30 years. As they have already been in Sydney and Brisbane for about 20 years I can't see much of an improvement.

The advantage of NRL is that it rates high on FTA Tv in 2 of the 3 big commercial markets of Australia, with 97% of NRL's FTA Tv audience in SYD & BRI.

But,outside SYD & BRI, NRL FTATv ratings are embarrassing. In the past, AFL had a better market spread across Australia, but this is being eroded. Particularly, in BRI, AFL's FTA audience is plummeting.

I do think 7 overpaid by a lot. I think it would be more beneficial for free to air broadcasters to go after the NRL. Not only does it rate better but then it has the State of origin and Internationals.

Interesting question that requires a deeper knowledge of the objectives of each broadcaster (e.g. it is suggested whilst Seven Network loses money on the AFL broadcasts, it derives indirect benefits for its other shows so there is a net gain)

If we work purely from crunching numbers, in my opinion:
1. the AFL has received fair market value for its product
2. Foxtel has underpaid massively
3. Seven has overpaid massively

1. the AFL has received fair market value for its product
* the AFL receives $250m p.a. for the broadcast rights to 207 matches
* currently, Foxtel is getting around 190k people to watch AFL on payTV
* I view the biggest competitor to Foxtel's PayTv platform for broadcasting sport to be digital/internet platforms for broadcasting sport
* based on household penetration of Foxtel compared to household penetration of the internet, I would estimate a likely IPTv (including all mobile devices) AFL audience of 3 x Foxtel audience = 570k per AFL game
* If the AFL decided to broadcast all its matches via its own website and charged $2 per game, a season ticket to watch every AFL match would cost $414 - which is about half the cost of a season ticket to watch AFL on Foxtel! (obviously, we'd have to factor in the costs of producing the live broadcast)
* Hence, in my opinion, the minimum value of 207 AFL matches is: $235m p.a. (very similar to the $250m p.a. the AFL is currently receiving)

2. Foxtel has underpaid massively
* Foxtel has paid $120m p.a. - about 1/2 the true value of 207 games

3. Seven has overpaid massively
* Seven has paid $100m to broadcast 4 games each week plus finals (i.e. 97 x 3 hour "episodes" )
* Seven is averaging ratings of 340k across Australia for the games it broadcasts
* Would Seven Network pay the same amount - $100m for any other TV show/series? I think not. If a show were rating 340k per 3 hour episode and cost that much to produce, Seven would have axed the show by now

Edited by Joe Davola: 19/5/2012 10:50:19 AM

^^ neither are great investments on a broad coverage basis, but serve very specific value propositions to the focus markets. They both have pros and cons.

About time this thread was moved.

Skeptic, there's no need for me to put comments in to get a bite. That seems like your gig so I will leave that to you :)

My point stands.. NRL games outside NSW and Qld are shunted to late timeslots because they don't draw decent numbers. Same as AFL in NSW and Qld games would usually be shown later if not for the requirements in the deal. Not hard to understand.


Edited by heart_fan: 19/5/2012 01:33:44 AM

If it was up to you Joe and you were a TV executive. What would you choose the AFL or NRL. I have this feeling that fox and seven paid over the top for a product that is secondary in TV numbers.

RUBBISH!!

You're obviously on the piss tonight, since you're more aggressive than usual, so I'm typing this slowly ...

on PAYTV, the little, insignificant A-LEAGUE competition
1. attracts more viewers in MEL, ADE & PER than the neanderthal NRL competition
2. attracts more viewers in SYD than AFL

Now, go along and have another swig from your flagon.

And it still manages to whip the arse of aleague's only ratings, (remember, the league doesn't have fta, you know, that errr, ummm that tv available free of charge, yes, be damned, it's free of charge)by 5-6x on paytv and 18-20x in it's fta ratings. By George, imagine if they had more popularity in most states like the aleague, eh? They then might be able to reach it's great heights of 50k plus. The nrl can only dream of such good fortune.

Now piss off, you two multi identity, dishonest piece of trash.

Outside BRI & SYD, the NRL ratings are truly embarrassing.

Last Friday Night's NRL Ratings on FTA TV (remember we are talking about TV that is available free of charge)

Round 10
BRIS vs MAN:
MEL: 22k ADE: 3k PER: 4k

CANT vs GC
MEL: 24k ADE: 4k PER: 5k

And, these figures are not abnormal. In fact, quite often the GEM ratings in MEL, ADE & PER are so low, they don't even register a rating.

This thread clearly no longer has anything to do with Australian Football, it is a conversation about the AFL/NRL ratings and therefore I am moving it to Extra time.

Do you tell lies to get a bite, to give an incorrect perception, to give yourself a warm and fuzzy feeling or just because you can't help your jealous, hateful self?

The NRL is on at 7.30pm prime time Friday nights and 4pm Sundays with the second Friday night game telecast following the first. Both on the primary channel.

And the prime time Friday night game rate extremely well, thanks, with an average in excess of 700k 5 city metro only which equates on average about 900k/1mill all inclusive.

Now if that above alone or the highest weekly rating nrl paytv games a minimum of quadruple that of the highest weekly aleague games, makes the aleagues 50k all inclusive paytv average look like stars, i'll flap my arms and fly around the room.

Don't tell lies or you have to keep telling more to cover your arse, you silly, silly little man.

And all that with no FTA content :)

Now people should be able to see the value our game has with a truly national base. If we stopped being doomsdayers for once, or so fixated on a few trying to push their love of other codes, we might actually see the value in our product.

Yup - absolutely. Whilst football doesn't get huge numbers right now in any particular city, our numbers are higher than AFL in SYD & higher than NRL in MEL, ADE & PER.

Just as Channel 9 relegate NRL matches to late hour timeslots due to low ratings. None of this is any different really.

This is why Football should be quite pleased with it's results across the country. Some of these figures make us look like stars:)

Nope. 7 choose not to show matches in HD. Part of the issue between Foxtel and 7 at the moment is that 7 refuse to supply them with a HD feed. 7 do this because they're ****s, not because of anything Foxtel make them do.

From what I understand, AFL insisted that all matches into SYD & BRI be shown LIVE - last year Seven would broadcast them at midnight b/c AFL rates so poorly in SYD & BRI.

But SEVEN will never waste their primary broadcast station on AFL in SYD or BRI. Even in ADE & PER, AFL is on 7mate for many games that don't involve local teams.

So your telling me they show all their matches across Australia only on 7mate.

The agreement with Fox probably says they can't show in HD???

Yep. Why pay over the top for the tv rights if your not going to show it on your dominant channel.

Channel 7 continues to reap the rewards for paying so much for AFL broadcasts.

And AFL continues to reap the rewards for investing tens of millions into BRI & SYD. The AFL sport is taking off ...

Most recent round:
5 matches broadcast on Seven Network
AVE ratings on FTA TV
SYD: 24.6k
BRI: 32.8k

Ess v WCE - a clash of teams doing very well this year rated:
SYD: 4k
BRI: 4k
Even an AFL city like ADE the FTA ratings were
ADE: 3k

Remember these are FREE-TO-AIR ratings in 2 of the 3 biggest TV markets in Australia. People don't pay a cent to push the 7mate button - but, they simply can't be bothered.

Edited by Joe Davola: 18/5/2012 03:53:38 PM

$28,000,000 might tell you why

And they talk about the WC bid

45 million to guarantee the NRL GF would stay in Sydney for a few years


:oops: :oops: :oops:

How many watched on channel 7?

did the man city or man u games rate top 20 the other night? thought there would be a decent amount watching although could well have been diluted by people watching different games

I find it strange how a new AFL team trying to build a supporters base takes a home game to Canberra?It's something teams do when they can't get home crowds.Even GCU didn't do this in their first season.

AFL still getting pumped by NRL head to head

Monday 15 May 2012
1 LIVE: NRL PANTHERS V DRAGONS   FOX SPORTS 2   313,000
2 LIVE: AFL ST KILDA V CARLTON   FOX FOOTY   258,000

Saturday 12 May 2012
1 LIVE: NRL KNIGHTS V COWBOYS   FOX SPORTS 2   304,000
2 LIVE: NRL WARRIORS V ROOSTERS   FOX SPORTS 2   291,000
3 LIVE: AFL RICHMOND V SYDNEY   FOX FOOTY   256,000
4 LIVE: AFL ESSENDON V WEST COAST   FOX SPORTS 1   178,000
5 LIVE: AFL ADELAIDE V GEELONG   FOX FOOTY   168,000
6 LIVE: AFL LIONS V COLLINGWOOD   FOX FOOTY   153,000
7 LIVE: SUPER RUGBY: REBELS V CRUSADERS   FOX SPORTS 3   122,000
8 LIVE: AFL GWS V GOLD COAST   FOX SPORTS 1   118,000

mainly because those games would be played at a revenue loss in Melbourne.

The Western Bulldogs played some of their home games in Darwin, and their home games against Sydeny in Sydney for the same reason.

Edited by stefcep: 14/5/2012 05:27:33 PM

Might be best not to sound like an AFL cheerleader on everything, hell bent on beating the 'company' line. It becomes a bit boring, especially on a Football (yes, the one that is the world game) forum :lol:

Like it or not, NSW and Qld are not that excited about AFL, and likely won't be for a long time to come. The AFL are throwing money at both markets in big amounts but it is a gamble that may not pay off.

The one thing that I would point out to some, the crowd averages have to take into account that the AFL has had 2 new teams in the last 2 years, which are both not going to bring in big numbers. Add to that games are being spread to places like Hobart, which are not big stadiums. Crowds are therefore not as clear to compare at this point.





Edited by heart_fan: 14/5/2012 03:44:38 PM

The numbers don't lie.

AFL is now broadcast LIVE in Brisbane & Sydney on FTATv - repeat, it's on FTATv not payTV - but, sadly, the people in Brisbane & Sydney couldn't be bothered to switch it on.

But apparantly on the decline. No-one at AFL HQ would want that, surely?