Australian Club Rankings


Australian Club Rankings

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Burztur
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MikeDude - 4 Aug 2016 9:40 AM
Adelaide still on top!?

They have a massive cushion. 
paladisious
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Top work Aussieshorter, can't wait for the full list on Monday.

Victory really lost forty odd points in beating the Jets?

Imagine if that top 20 right there was the A-League.
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Burztur - 4 Aug 2016 9:46 AM
MikeDude - 4 Aug 2016 9:40 AM
Adelaide still on top!?

They have a massive cushion. 

Lost like 80 points, yep. I am surprised that Victory lost 40 points as well, so perhaps the whole A-League must have taken a massive hit to the vector with those two losses.
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paladisious - 4 Aug 2016 1:40 PM
Burztur - 4 Aug 2016 9:46 AM
MikeDude - 4 Aug 2016 9:40 AM
Adelaide still on top!?

They have a massive cushion. 

Lost like 80 points, yep. I am surprised that Victory lost 40 points as well, so perhaps the whole A-League must have taken a massive hit to the vector with those two losses.

Yep, that's exactly the reason.  The teams actually involved in the game lose/gain the most, but all clubs from the respective leagues lose or gain points as well.  And because the Redlands win was so unexpected it had a big impact.  Mariners losing was less of a surprise, but still went against expectations.

Victory winning gained back some points, but they were expected to beat Newcastle so it wasn't enough to make up for the losses due to Mariners and Adelaide.


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Burztur
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aussieshorter - 4 Aug 2016 1:48 PM
paladisious - 4 Aug 2016 1:40 PM
Burztur - 4 Aug 2016 9:46 AM
MikeDude - 4 Aug 2016 9:40 AM
Adelaide still on top!?

They have a massive cushion. 

Lost like 80 points, yep. I am surprised that Victory lost 40 points as well, so perhaps the whole A-League must have taken a massive hit to the vector with those two losses.

Yep, that's exactly the reason.  The teams actually involved in the game lose/gain the most, but all clubs from the respective leagues lose or gain points as well.  And because the Redlands win was so unexpected it had a big impact.  Mariners losing was less of a surprise, but still went against expectations.

Victory winning gained back some points, but they were expected to beat Newcastle so it wasn't enough to make up for the losses due to Mariners and Adelaide.

Cupset so great that it affected the rest of football.
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azzaMVFC - 4 Aug 2016 9:31 AM
Haha wow!

How far up have Gully moved?

yep was wondering as well
The Dudist
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Loving this ranking system. Can't wait to watch it change over time.

How many hours on Monday do you spend updating it? Just curious to know if it's a major pain in the arse for you, or if it's tolerable.

Worth it though :)
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Griffindinho - 4 Aug 2016 5:55 PM
azzaMVFC - 4 Aug 2016 9:31 AM
Haha wow!

How far up have Gully moved?

yep was wondering as well

That's why it's a teaser ;)

Full list will come on Monday after the weekend's games.


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aussieshorter
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MikeDude - 4 Aug 2016 6:00 PM
Loving this ranking system. Can't wait to watch it change over time.How many hours on Monday do you spend updating it? Just curious to know if it's a major pain in the arse for you, or if it's tolerable.Worth it though :)

Now that it's set up it's not too difficult.  Maybe half an hour to throw the results in and figure out the biggest upsets, biggest movers, etc.

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Glad it's not too hard to do. In the unlikely event you ever tire of it, please let us/me know. We must continue these rankings indefinitely. ;)
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Given some of the comments about Redlands' win being the biggest upset of the FFA Cup, I'm pulling together a list of the biggest upsets over the last few years. 

A question I'm having to answer is what makes a result the 'biggest upset'?  Is it simply the result, or does the score factor in?  Does the importance of the game factor in (i.e. two identical results but one is a Finals game - is that a bigger upset)?

For example, what is a bigger upset in this scenario:
Team 1 vs Team 2 - Team 1 probability of winning is 99%.  Result - Team 2 wins 1-0.

Team 3 vs Team 4 - Team 3 probability of winning is 80%. Result - Team 4 wins 5-0.


Thoughts?


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paladisious - 4 Aug 2016 1:38 PM
Imagine if that top 20 right there was the A-League.

Yeah sure, some games would just light up the sky and have more police presence than some supporters.!


In a resort somewhere

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aussieshorter - 5 Aug 2016 11:05 AM
Given some of the comments about Redlands' win being the biggest upset of the FFA Cup, I'm pulling together a list of the biggest upsets over the last few years. 

A question I'm having to answer is what makes a result the 'biggest upset'?  Is it simply the result, or does the score factor in?  Does the importance of the game factor in (i.e. two identical results but one is a Finals game - is that a bigger upset)?

For example, what is a bigger upset in this scenario:
Team 1 vs Team 2 - Team 1 probability of winning is 99%.  Result - Team 2 wins 1-0.

Team 3 vs Team 4 - Team 3 probability of winning is 80%. Result - Team 4 wins 5-0.


Thoughts?

The biggest upset would be knocking off the most recent successful team, particular an A-League champion.


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aussieshorter - 5 Aug 2016 11:05 AM
Given some of the comments about Redlands' win being the biggest upset of the FFA Cup, I'm pulling together a list of the biggest upsets over the last few years. 

A question I'm having to answer is what makes a result the 'biggest upset'?  Is it simply the result, or does the score factor in?  Does the importance of the game factor in (i.e. two identical results but one is a Finals game - is that a bigger upset)?

For example, what is a bigger upset in this scenario:
Team 1 vs Team 2 - Team 1 probability of winning is 99%.  Result - Team 2 wins 1-0.

Team 3 vs Team 4 - Team 3 probability of winning is 80%. Result - Team 4 wins 5-0.


Thoughts?

The original Elorating site for international matches, just uses the greatest number of points exchanged to determine the size of the upset. Therefore the weighting attached to the importance of the game will influence the points exchange, as will the goal difference.
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paulc - 5 Aug 2016 11:53 AM
aussieshorter - 5 Aug 2016 11:05 AM
Given some of the comments about Redlands' win being the biggest upset of the FFA Cup, I'm pulling together a list of the biggest upsets over the last few years. 

A question I'm having to answer is what makes a result the 'biggest upset'?  Is it simply the result, or does the score factor in?  Does the importance of the game factor in (i.e. two identical results but one is a Finals game - is that a bigger upset)?

For example, what is a bigger upset in this scenario:
Team 1 vs Team 2 - Team 1 probability of winning is 99%.  Result - Team 2 wins 1-0.

Team 3 vs Team 4 - Team 3 probability of winning is 80%. Result - Team 4 wins 5-0.


Thoughts?

The biggest upset would be knocking off the most recent successful team, particular an A-League champion.

Ok, let me ask it this way - what would you consider to be the bigger upset: Bentleigh Greens beating Adelaide 3-0 or Redlands beating Adelaide 1-0? I.e. does the winning margin play a part in your decision?


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aussieshorter
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thewitness - 5 Aug 2016 11:55 AM
aussieshorter - 5 Aug 2016 11:05 AM
Given some of the comments about Redlands' win being the biggest upset of the FFA Cup, I'm pulling together a list of the biggest upsets over the last few years. 

A question I'm having to answer is what makes a result the 'biggest upset'?  Is it simply the result, or does the score factor in?  Does the importance of the game factor in (i.e. two identical results but one is a Finals game - is that a bigger upset)?

For example, what is a bigger upset in this scenario:
Team 1 vs Team 2 - Team 1 probability of winning is 99%.  Result - Team 2 wins 1-0.

Team 3 vs Team 4 - Team 3 probability of winning is 80%. Result - Team 4 wins 5-0.


Thoughts?

The original Elorating site for international matches, just uses the greatest number of points exchanged to determine the size of the upset. Therefore the weighting attached to the importance of the game will influence the points exchange, as will the goal difference.

Yep, and that's my starting point.  But I'm not sure that I agree 100% with that approach.

For instance, I'm not sure I agree that the weighting of the game should influence it.  Is an unexpected win in the FFA Cup more of an upset than an unexpected win in a league game?


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WSF
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aussieshorter - 5 Aug 2016 11:56 AM
paulc - 5 Aug 2016 11:53 AM

Ok, let me ask it this way - what would you consider to be the bigger upset: Bentleigh Greens beating Adelaide 3-0 or Redlands beating Adelaide 1-0? I.e. does the winning margin play a part in your decision?

Winning margin plays a part and also they way the goals were scored etc the comical fashion in the Redlands vs Adelaide United game.
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aussieshorter - 5 Aug 2016 11:56 AM
paulc - 5 Aug 2016 11:53 AM

Ok, let me ask it this way - what would you consider to be the bigger upset: Bentleigh Greens beating Adelaide 3-0 or Redlands beating Adelaide 1-0? I.e. does the winning margin play a part in your decision?

If the league from the two teams were equal strength then suggest GG game with the higher winning score would be the biggest upset however not so sure if the Redlands is as strong a club in as strong a league.

The biggest upset is where the quality of the two teams/league is the most apart.


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paulc - 5 Aug 2016 11:51 AM
paladisious - 4 Aug 2016 1:38 PM

Yeah sure, some games would just light up the sky and have more police presence than some supporters.!



-PB

https://i.imgur.com/batge7K.jpg

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aussieshorter - 5 Aug 2016 11:56 AM
paulc - 5 Aug 2016 11:53 AM

Ok, let me ask it this way - what would you consider to be the bigger upset: Bentleigh Greens beating Adelaide 3-0 or Redlands beating Adelaide 1-0? I.e. does the winning margin play a part in your decision?

What would be the points exchange for these 2 results? Which one would have the bigger exchange. I think winning margin does play some part, but Bentleigh are also a lot better than Redlands. Obviously venue also plays a role.
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aussieshorter - 5 Aug 2016 12:00 PM
thewitness - 5 Aug 2016 11:55 AM

Yep, and that's my starting point.  But I'm not sure that I agree 100% with that approach.

For instance, I'm not sure I agree that the weighting of the game should influence it.  Is an unexpected win in the FFA Cup more of an upset than an unexpected win in a league game?

Probably not. So maybe match weighting shouldn't be included, more rating difference, venue (expected result) and margin. I'll take a look at some of the numbers and see what I come up with.
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paulc - 5 Aug 2016 11:51 AM
paladisious - 4 Aug 2016 1:38 PM

Yeah sure, some games would just light up the sky and have more police presence than some supporters.!

As opposed to now, when there are hardly no police when Brisbane have their fireworks displays in the stadium with orange flares.

The A League is still plastic, and with a 10 team A League, it is more entertaining watching the grass grow! 
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Aikhme - 5 Aug 2016 12:33 PM
paulc - 5 Aug 2016 11:51 AM

As opposed to now, when there are hardly no police when Brisbane have their fireworks displays in the stadium with orange flares.

The A League is still plastic, and with a 10 team A League, it is more entertaining watching the grass grow! 

You jumped on the Adelaide United bandwagon quick enough, didn't hear you saying how plastic it was then.
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WSF - 5 Aug 2016 12:48 PM
Aikhme - 5 Aug 2016 12:33 PM

You jumped on the Adelaide United bandwagon quick enough, didn't hear you saying how plastic it was then.

I came, I saw, I got a lot of satisfaction seeing you get done over like a bitch and laughed, but at the end of the day, there is only so much plastic I can tolerate in life! 
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Aikhme - 5 Aug 2016 12:56 PM
WSF - 5 Aug 2016 12:48 PM

I came, I saw, I got a lot of satisfaction seeing you get done over like a bitch and laughed, but at the end of the day, there is only so much plastic I can tolerate in life

I seem to remember you crying like a bitch because you thought I would come and beat you up :laugh:You should move on to females instead of blow up dolls.
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I would stick with the Elo points exchanged as the indicator of the biggest Cupset for now. Keep it easy for yourself :)

Goal difference and win probabilities are nice but this is an Elo ranking after all :)
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WSF - 5 Aug 2016 1:37 PM
Aikhme - 5 Aug 2016 12:56 PM

I seem to remember you crying like a bitch because you thought I would come and beat you up :laugh:You should move on to females instead of blow up dolls.

I'm the one that invited you but you didn't show. 
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I can't believe this debate has started again.

Anyway, Aikhme, you're probably in the wrong place if you're not an A-League fan. This forum is 90% A-League.

Franchises aren't plastic. What's plastic is shit like the BBL, which is to cricket what the WWE is to wrestling.
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Updated to 7th August 2016.

You're all going to like this week's update :D.  Big points lost for the A-League teams, with QLD and VIC clubs seeing the most benefit.

Central Coast continues to tumble, on the back of their defeat to Green Gully, and compounded by Adelaide's loss to Redlands.  Bentleigh are up to 8th ahead of both Newcastle Jets and Wellington.




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More cupsets to shake up the table please.
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