I don't think we're going to know who either party's nominee is until Super Tuesday.

Sanders is going to give Hillary a good run in some of the early states, especially those states where the population is a bit whiter and a bit younger. This might give him a boost. But when Super Tuesday happens, it will be a battle of who has the best name recognition and the strongest organisation.

As for the Republicans, it is clear that Trump has by far the strongest plurality in a crowded field. But even now, about 60pc of republicans in polling are going to vote for someone else.

Once some more candidates drop out, it will be a test of who those people coalesce around, then we will have a better idea.

FU! I'm voting for Frank Underwood instead!:-K

Fair point. However seeing senior politicians rip into gun laws is frightening.

Good to see Trump has received the 'Kiss of Life' from that intellectual giant, Sarah Palin....:lol:

This!

Do people even know that it was Nixon who created the EPA (Environmental Protection Authority) and who opened up the American economy to China?

Could you imagine a republican doing that today???

Trump has been succeeding because of a specific set of circumstances:

1- at a time of complete cynicism with politics, he has attracted some people with his "anti-politics" appeal
2- the republicans have a very large field with no clear establishment candidate for support to coalesce around (especially with Jeb bombing out).

In the above circumstances Trump has a level of support that gives him a plurality of the vote in the republican camp right now.

The key issue for me that hurts him is that he is an extremely polarising candidate. That gives him a core (sizeable) minority of support but also means he is hated.

Once it becomes clear that the Trump alternative in the republican primaries is Cruz or Rubio etc, I think as candidates drop out Trump will struggle to pick up their supporters.

Everyone who would be satisfied with a Trump candidacy would already be voting for him. Whereas I don't think that is the case for the rest of the field.

If I was Trump I'd want the field to stay as large as possible for as long as possible.

Plenty of candidates (and even nominees) have been more left than Sanders throughout history. McGovern, Mondale, Bradley are just a few examples.

Sanders seems out of the ordinary because America has been drifting to the right for decades.

Nah, they really don't. The only people who want genuine radical change (which is what Trump represents) are the kind of people who believe that the homosexual agenda is sending America towards judgment day; the people who genuinely and sincerely believe that Obama is a Muslim Manchurian Candidate.

Average Americans just want to feel secure in their lives and that will mean they take the safe option. If ever there were a time that Americans would have demonstrated their desire for real change it was 1992 - when the end of the Cold War meant national security was no longer a major issue, when they felt betrayed by Bush's 'no new taxes' pledge, and when a billionaire (Ross Perot - a far more reasonable candidate than Trump) ran a credible, populist independent campaign for the presidency and led both Clinton and Bush for months in the polls until August.

And yet Perot only won 18% of the vote and lost every state he ran in. It didn't happen in 1992; it won't happen in 2016.

But sanders would be about as left as a US candidate could get. Most of the dems in the US are centre right or centrist and the republicans are far right. Has there been a more left leaning presidential candidate than sanders?

:) golden

Clinton as a person is superficial and ambitious more than anything else. She's obviously very easy to dislike, but her Presidency will essentially be a third term of Obama, which is fine. A good President needn't be a good person.

He is a social democrat centre left. Hilary is centre right.

Edited by scott21: 19/1/2016 10:52:31 PM

I know, but I don't think he's a socialist. I'd call him a social democrat.

IMO, Hillary lost her the 2008 nomination because she was very establishment and perceived as a fake, calculating politician. I see something similar happening here.

I'm not sure many do, they idolize her as an example of progressiveness, when it actual fact she espouses the war-hawk policy of neo-con republicans and has deep ties to Wall St.

But hey, America is ready for a female president :)

I meant Socialist in reference to Sanders. Can't see him beating Hillary to the Dem's nomination. He's too far left for America IMO.

Ahem, Social Democrat ;)

I do think though if its Trump v Hillary, Trump has a very good chance

Edited by tbitm: 19/1/2016 10:13:27 PM

:d

I have had that as my background pic on fb for over a year

They already dislike her and they already know her past and ties.

And they'll still vote for her over Trump in enough numbers for her to win.

People want change, and when they learn of Hillary's unscrupulous past and her ties to Wall St./big business + her neo-con foreign policy they'll dislike her.

I'm not saying Trump will win the GE, but I believe he has the nomination in the bag and will come alot closer to Hillary than you think. Besides, lots of Republicans will turn out for "any-one but Hillary" - they detest her and see her as a continuation of Obama.

:)

I think you're confusing crazy minority groups with middle America. All the polling suggests that the majority of Americans want gun reform, but the power of the NRA ensures that the 'crazies' dominate media attention and hold politicians hostage. Similarly, Trump is leading the polls in the primaries because only a tiny portion of the electorate (a portion dominated by far-right nutjobs) votes in the Republican primary.

If Trump makes it as far as the general election fear of the unknown will drive people towards Clinton - even to Republicans, she will be the devil they know.

Given some of the crazy stuff the other candidates are also spouting (crazy tour Aussies) over removing any gun control laws Obama puts it, i'm concerned that Americans are paranoid and crazy enough to elect Trump as he is perceived as a strong person with the "make America great again" buzz word to rile up the population.

Ricey is right.

As I've said I'll be incredibly surprised if Trump is the nominee, but if he is, he will get absolutely belted. Plenty of establishment Republicans have said that they won't support Trump (see here) - and that's just the politicians. Come the general election ordinary Americans will begin seriously considering whose finger they want over the nuclear button, and the choice will be an obvious one.

who's this tough talking internet kunt? :lol:

Trump is unelectable

Trump v Hillary

Trump with surprise win.

If America votes in a socialist hell may just freeze over. Just can't see it happening.

Calling it. Trump v Sanders. Sanders in a landslide

It's quite embarrassing how wilfully ignorant Cruz & Trump are of anthropogenic global warming.
Dangerous, sociopaths.
And of course, when it comes to politics, scientific illiteracy and extreme right wing ideology go hand in glove.

Gimme a break Hillary :roll: