By Damo Baresi - 3 Jul 2013 7:05 PM
June 25, 2013 at 12:33 am
WCQ Analysis (Part 1): Breaking Down the Socceroos’ Attack
Posted by editor
Part One of this two-part analysis uses a range of performance analysis tools to breakdown the Socceroos’ World Cup Qualifying matches against Japan, Jordan and Iraq.
Australia recently completed a difficult World Cup Qualifying campaign, which came down to the final matchday against Iraq, to secure a spot at our fourth World Cup. Australia’s performances were often criticized by fans and the football media, as the team often struggled to earn results playing a more direct style of football, and often in a very rigid 4-4-2 formation. After a shocking performance at home against Oman there has been a gradual change in the way the Socceroos have played. Whilst the team still relies heavily on wide crosses into the box, there is now a more balanced passing game, and the use of a #10 to help build attacking phases.
Breaking down the past three matches we can see the positive changes that have been made recently under Holger Osieck, and what areas still need improvement.
Statistical Analysis – Team
One of the oldest forms of performance analysis is the process of examining statistics and comparing them with key performance indicators (KPIs). However, this basic set of data should always be used to provoke further investigation as the information can often be misleading when forming opinion. Using this data to examine the Socceroos performances, it is possible to identify some KPIs that Holger Osieck could set for his team in preparation for Brazil.
Final Third KPIs
JPN v AUS AUS v JOR AUS v IRAQ
Passing
Successful 23 67 66
Unsuccessful 18 34 37
Total 41 101 103
Accuracy % 56% 66% 64%
Passing Breakdown
Penetration Pass 5 9 9
Key Pass 5 7 7
Assists 0 4 1
Chance Creation 5 11 8
Shots
Shot on Target 3 9 5
Shot off Target 4 5 6
Goal 1 4 1
Shot Blocked 3 2 0
Total 10 16 11
Accuracy % 30% 56% 45%
Dribbling
Successful 5 12 19
Unsuccessful 4 6 16
Tackled & Possession Lost 1 4 6
Total 10 22 41
Accuracy % 50% 55% 46%
Pressure
Tackle 1 1 2
Recovery 5 5 10
Interception 1 2 2
Total 7 8 14
Key Findings
From this subset of data, we can see that there might be a direct correlation between successful passes, and both penetration passes and chance creation passes. This supports the theory that a team that plays a possession based style of football can create more goal scoring opportunities compared to a team that plays with a more direct approach. However there will need to be a significant amount of data to be reviewed before that can be a conclusive finding.
With this data we can see a few KPIs that may be set by Osieck to measure performance:
Passes – Attempt 100 at 65% completion
Penetration Passes – Complete 10 successful PP
Shots – Attempt 15 shots at goal with 50% on target
Dribbling – Complete 60% dribbles
Pressure – Depending on tactical instructions this data becomes relevant when a team is playing a pressing style. The Socceroos set up to win the ball in the middle third so a KPI is not required.
You could expect that if the Socceroos were able to achieve all of those KPIs in a match that they would be able to create enough attacking chances to secure victory.
Final Third Penetration Passing Diagrams
From a statistical standpoint a penetration pass (often referred to as the ‘killer pass’), is any pass that enters the opposition penalty area from outside the area. The obvious goal of a penetration pass is to create a goal scoring opportunity, and these can be measured as chance creation passes (the pass before a shot at goal).
Using a basic passing diagram we can visualize where the penetration passes are being attempted from and measure their effectiveness.
Key Findings
There is an obvious focus on wide crossing. This is very noticeable against Japan and even more so against Jordan.
The Iraq game saw an increase in crosses on the left side. This was due to the more attacking approach from the Socceroo left back Matt McKay. His overlapping runs allowed Tommy Oar more space to receive the ball and provide better quality delivery.
Luke Wilkshire’s passes (crosses) from deep are often unsuccessful.
Brett Holman’s passes from central positions are often unsuccessful.
Tommy Oar’s passes are often long deep crosses whilst Robbie Kruse tends to have shorter passes that cut back to midfield players.
Video review could be used to further analyse why so many passes from similar areas are unsuccessful. Often the result of this review will find the unsuccessful passes may have been due to poor decision making or poor technique. Both are issues that can be resolved with coaching.
Video 1: Japan vs Australia
Video 2: Australia vs Jordan
Video 3: Australia vs Iraq
Final Third Penetration Passing Zone Diagram
Using the same data as above, a zone diagram can also be used to visualize and quantify the effectiveness of the penetration passing. KPIs can also be used in this diagram, for example a completion rate of 40% and above could be deemed as the target, with anything between 30-39% acceptable, and below 30% unacceptable.
Key Findings
Over half of the penetration passes are attempted from zone 1 and 7.
11 penetration passes were attempted in zone 6 and none resulted in a shot at goal.
There was only 3 penetration passes attempted from zone 2 and 3. This highlights the emphasis that Australia has on attacking the right side.
This diagram shows that both central and wide areas have similar rates of accuracy and chance creations.
Shot on Target Chain
In the final third analysis of the Japan v Australia game, goalkeeper distribution chains were used to visualize how both goalkeepers distribute the ball through the game. Using the same chain to end diagram, we can analyse how Australia is building its attacking phases to create shots at goal, and specifically, the chains that lead to a shot on target.
Key Findings
Whilst it may be difficult to trace each individual chain there are some patterns viewable that provide some key findings:
In 270 minutes there was only one pass from a wide position outside the box (in open play) that resulted in a shot on target (Robbie Kruse’s assist for Tim Cahill).
The Socceroos clearly favorite the right-hand side of play.
Most chains begin in the middle third of the pitch, this indicates the Socceroos can force turnovers and construct attacking phases.
The Socceroos clearly create their most effective goal scoring opportunities through central passing movements outside the box, and not from wide areas, despite majority of their attempted penetration passes coming from out wide.
Tim Cahill plays a free role as a #9 often receiving the ball in wide and deep areas to help build attacks.
Holger Osciek decision to play Mark Milligan ahead of Mile Jedinak is rationalized by his heavy involvement in the construction phase of attacks (Note: MM in wide left areas represents Matt McKay)
Despite his limited involvement (40 minutes) in only two out of the three matches Tomas Rogic appears multiple times in different chains.
Robbie Kruse is the most frequent name seen in the construction and progression of the attacking phases.
Conclusion
The Socceroos ability to attempt over 100 passes in the final third against Jordan and Iraq shows that the team may have shaken its ‘long ball’ football tag that it received from the Japanese media.
There is a significant focus on wide crosses, which is evident in the penetration passing analysis. Despite both central and wide zones creating the same amount of chances at goal, the chain diagram clearly shows that most shots on goal come from central zones.
All of the data and visual evidence indicates that Australia is capable of a possession based game. Majority of shots on goal are from intricate passing and central penetration. This raises the question as to why Australia continues persisting with wide ineffective crosses, when we clearly have the capability to build attacks with more thought and precision. Alternatively there should be future consideration as to why our wide crosses that do lead to a shot at goal are not resulting in a shot on target.
Both conclusions will hopefully be on the mind of Holger Osieck, as he looks to improve on his side’s attacking ability ahead of Brazil.
http://leopoldmethod.com.au/wcq-analysis-part-1-breaking-down-the-socceroos-attack/
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By Joffa - 3 Jul 2013 9:33 PM
Quote:Luke Wilkshire’s passes (crosses) from deep are often unsuccessful.
Brett Holman’s passes from central positions are often unsuccessful.
Both players are in risk of losing their starting spots for Brazil, and deservedly so.
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