Inside Sport

2nd-leg Home Advantage in World Cup Intercontinental Playoffs


https://forum.insidesport.com.au/Topic2590429.aspx

By Bitedge - 7 Nov 2017 9:40 AM

I crunched the numbers on WC intercontinental playoff victories by 1st-leg home teams vs 2nd-leg home teams to see if there was an advantage. Full details here.

TLDR;
Conventional wisdom says it's better to be home for the 2nd-leg.

There is a lot of research into this in the case of UEFA Champions League 2 leg ties. Overall it finds there is no advantage either way.

In WC intercontinental playoffs the 2nd-leg home team has won 56% of the time. If the favorites win this week (Australia and Peru) that will be 61%.




By Bitedge - 19 Nov 2017 8:34 AM

TimmyJ - 18 Nov 2017 10:18 PM
Is it the same in club competitions? 

Form the article

European club home and away ties

I wanted facts and found a lot of resources, including peer reviewed academic research, about the same question in regards to the UEFA Champions League 2-leg ties (and the previous versions of the same competition).

Overall studies and results show there is no advantage to playing the 2nd-leg at home. One older study disagrees and suggests that since the 1950s the 2nd-leg home team wins an adjusted 53% of ties. However, they find this advantage has become nonexistent in the last 20 years, which is what other studies suggest [1][2].

That’s all well and good for European club football which often includes ties between teams from the same country. However, home advantage is more pronounced in intercontinental playoffs because the climatic differences, cultural differences and travel times are so much greater.