By grazorblade - 12 Dec 2023 1:39 AM
I have often worried that outside the Glasgow giants, Scotland is a poor place for our Aussies to improve. My worry has been mainly based on the fact that the style of play outside of Celtic/Rangers is an outlier in world football, averaging around 450 aggregate passes per game compared to most similar quality leagues averaging 750. We want to prepare players for the highest level - the world cup or advanced champions league stages where this number often pips 1000 passes per game! I have worried that this radical change in style makes for poor preparation for international football.
A couple of people pushed back, saying that there are plenty of SPL players getting big contracts at better leagues. A fair point if true, so I wanted to see how the SPL does compared to similar quality leagues. I wasn’t interested in players from Celtic or Rangers, since I am thrilled at any Aussie that gets a gig there and agree that they provide good preparation for international football. I was also not interested in anyone that left as a kid, since these are players who have gone through Scotland's superior youth development system and left after receiving their first taste of professional football in the SPL. Even if the SPL does well at giving kids their first gig, we are sending older age players to the SPL and I want to know how much adults improve in this league. So is it true that scouts all across Europe are tuning into the SPL? Short answer is no, not even scouts in Scotland are tuning into the SPL.
So here is my methodology. I used club ELO to find which leagues are similar to the SPL after removing Celtic and Rangers. The ones I chose are the Greek league minus their top four, Sweden minus their top 2 and Norway minus their top two. I was curious about transfers of adult players (aka players that left at the age of 23 or older) from the league to clubs that were a step up, whether in the same league like Celtic/Rangers or to another higher quality league. I define a step up as in remaining in Europe, which meant excluding some K-league transfers) and an elo of at least 100 higher. I am ignoring all loans and free transfers. All transfer numbers from transfermarkt and I chose the seasons 22/23 and 21/22 since the current season isn't completed yet. My conclusion is that the SPL drastically underperforms similar quality leagues
SPL: Excluding Celtic and rangers, the bottom 10 clubs have an elo of 1274. The only adult transfers I could find for the past 2 seasons excluding the glasgow giants are (all currency in euro)
Ryan hedges to blackburn for 150k
Lawrence Shankland to Beerschot for 1.18million
Matt macey luton 115k
Greek super league: this league has 4 big guns in AEK, PAOK, Olympiakos and Panathinaikos. Excluding these clubs, the bottom 10 have an elo of 1268, almost identical to the SPL minus the Glasgow giants. The adult transfers to bigger clubs from these ten over the last two years are
Aboubakar Kamara to Oympiacos for 5million
Daniel Mancini to Panathinaikos for 3million
Giannis Kargas to Paok for 280k
Paolo Fernandes to Aek for 700k
Tom van Weert to Aek for 500k
Efthymios Koulouris to LASK for 1mil
Charilaos Charisis to Sivassport for 500k
Lindsay Rose to Legia Warsaw for 600k
Giannis Kotsiras to Panathinaikos for 250k
Fabio Sturgeon to Rakow for 500k
Sweden: If we exclude Elfsborb and Malmo, the remaining 14 teams have an elo pretty close to the bottom 10 in the SPL at 1305. The adult transfers of these bottom 14 teams are
Gustav berggren to Rakow for 500k
Hjalmar Ekdal to burnley for 2.8 million
Veton Berisha to Molde for 3million
Astrit Selmani to Beer Sheva for 1 million
Alexander Jallow to Brescia for 400k
Moustafa Zeidan to Malmo for 800k
Asiak Witry to Az Alkmaar for 1.75 mil
Martin Olsson to Malmo for 500k
Fidan Aliti to Zurich for 1.2mil
Norway: This league is apparently better than I thought, which is good for Yazbek, D’aggers and Stesness. If we exclude Bodo and Molde, the bottom 14 clubs have a healthy elo of 1358. Adult transfers from the last 2 seasons are.
Stefano Vecchia to Malmo for 1million
Kaan Kairinen to sparta prague for 1.5 million
Odin Bjortuft to Bodo for 1 million
Tobias Lauritsen to Sparta Rotterdam for 450k
Kjetil Haug to Toulouse for 500k
Alioune Ndour to Zulte Waregem for 1.2 million
Lars Salvesen to Bodo for 1 million
Kristian Eriksen to Molde for 1.5million
Sam Adekugbe to Hatayspor for 400k
Mikkel dealer to toulouse for 500k
The trend is so strong it barely needs analysis, but to drive the point home, let's take some averages. Not all the leagues I have compared have the same number of clubs remaining once you remove the giants. So I rescaled the total transfer worth to the number of clubs
Scotland
Number of adult transfers: 3
Total transfer value: 1.45 million
Greece:
Number of adult transfers: 10
Total transfer value: 12.3 milion
Sweden:
Rescaled number of adult transfers: 6.43
Rescaled total transfer value: 7.4 million
Norway:
Rescaled number of adult transfers: 7.2
Rescaled total transfer value: 6.4 million
In conclusion, Scotland outside the Glasgow giants looks like a dead end for football development. It is simply not true that scouts all across Europe are looking at this league, it is not even true that scouts in Scotland are looking at this league as it was much more common in comparable leagues for players to transfer to the giants within the league. Not much can be done for players already there, but players considering going there should consider Norway, Sweden or Greece. Greece in particular is impressive and you get to play against 4 giants rather than 2 which is good preparation for international football. If you are good enough for Scotland, you are probably good enough for those leagues too, but you will probably improve more and perform better for the roos everything else being equal.
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By Monoethnic Social Club - 20 Dec 2023 10:41 AM
+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+xWhat I don't get about Scotland is when ever Celtic or rangers lose it's like the end of the world. How dare hearts beat Celtic sack Rodgers. Throw him in a well Geez they are still first place by a few points. City lost to wolves and nobody called for Pep to go It comes with having a large fanbase and high expectations mate... Not sure why you see it as a bad thing? Would you rather fans didnt give a shit and just wanted to cheer "Yay for football"? Think there’s a difference between fans having high expectations (Liverpool, Man City fans just for example) and having impossible/perfect/unrealistic standards like many celtic fans who are way too quick to boo their own players/coach/board cos their little brains can’t fathom the fact that even very good teams occasionally lose I think you just have a bee in your bonnet over Celtic fans mate.... That happens all around the world.... Nah celtic fans are uniquely demented cos you don’t hear Epl fans calling for Ange, Klopp or Pep to be sacked after they occasionally lose Ummm are you sure about that mate? I dont think the red Mancs are that keen on ol Erik these days and they are 7th out of 20 clubs :) Do you boo Hellas players after they lose a game - despite them giving 100%?! If not you’re not a ‘true football fan’ according to Sutherland Bear Not if they have given 100% never... but if they dont play for the shirt they certainly hear about it.... Players all over the world will change clubs for more money/prestige/career advancement whenever they can/want to. But once they commit to their NT they’re committed for LIFE under Fifa rules. And despite WCup winning players like Messi changing clubs several times I’d be surprised if playing for Argentina and winning a Wcup wouldn’t be top of his list of his career achievements/highlights. Jingoistic?! Really?!
Heheh maybe "jingoistic" is a little harsh..... As a supporter you dont get to choose your country mate, thats the point it just is.....
Hard to describe club passion to someone that doesnt have it, not having a go, but it is what makes the beautiful game tick all around the globe....
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