On April 15th we will begin our qualification for this years Paris Olympics. We have to finish 3rd or better to qualify directly or, if we finish 4th, have to defeat Gunei, the 4th placed African team.
Our history in the Tournament:
We have traditionally been much weaker in this tournament than the seniors, having a highest finish of 3rd. We have failed to get past the group stages twice and have actually have a negative overall goal difference. In fact we have scored less goals than we have played matches.
Despite the optimism that surrounds our current team, we should not underestimate how difficult we have found even minnows in this tournament.
Our path to qualification:
We are in a group with tournament hosts Qatar along with Indonesia and Jordan. If we finish in the top two of our group we will likely have to face either south korea of Japan in a quarter final. So incredibly, we will have to face the tournament hosts in the group and then beat a powerhouse to qualify for the olympics. We have never faced Indonesia or Qatar in this format but have an unflattering record against the other teams
Games | Wins | Draws | Losses | GF | GA
Games | Wins | Draws | Losses | GF | GA
Games | Wins | Draws | Losses | GF | GA
I’m reminded of what it was like qualifying for the world cup in the 90s and early 00s before we joined the AFC. We very well could have to sneak into the tournament through penalties in a knockout match. I’ll be doing my best Craig foster impression if we do shouting the winning penalty takers name with my shirt off. However, we should also be clear eyed about just how tough the task before us is.
Despite the media about Irankunda's omission, it should be some cause for optimism that Tony Vidmar has selected the strongest u23 I’ve seen represent Australia in the asian cup. He has sacrificed one cb for an extra forward utilizing JCP’s ability to cover cb if needed:
—————————————Cook/Beach/Hall—————————————-
—Italiano/Talbot———-—Natta/JGR———-Popovic———farrell/JCP———
————————————Darrigo/Teague—Hollman/Valadon———————
————————————————Youlley/Segecic———————————-
——Milanovic/G Kuol/Tillio———A Kuol/Toure—————Brook/Velupillay—-
As I said before though, most of the chatter was about who was missing from the squad with some players injured, some not released and irankunda not selected. The following team of missing players could arguably be competitive agains the socceroos
-Peupion——Circati-Triantis———-bos-
——————-Robertson-Neiwenhof——
——Irankunda—-Volpato-Chipperfield—-
But it isn’t just our elite players causing headaches, even amongst the players available we have an unprecedented number of qualified players in each position. Consider the following dispaly of depth for every poisition, where I’ve put them roughly in order of strongest to weakest (not objectively, just my opinion so feel to argue!)
Left back: 1. jordi bos, 2. jacob farrel, 3. jcp, 4. mauragis
cb pairings: 1. circati+triantis, 2. popavic+Girdal reich, 3. Natta+trewin, 4. Matthews+Bonetig, 5. Cancur and Bility 6. Muir and Majekodunmi 7. Kikianis and Ostler
right back: 1. Peupion, 2. italiano, 3. Bovalina, 4. rawlins, 5. simmons, 6. talbot
defensive midfield: 1. teague, 2. neiwenhof, 3. Priestman 4. D'arrigo, 5. monge, 6. Okon
Central midfield: 1. Robertson, 2. Yazbek, 3. J holman, 4. Segecic, 5. C holman, 6. Valadon, 7. Yull 8. Alagich 9. Gomulka
Attacking mid: 1. Vopato, 2. Jelacic, 3. Bernando, 4. Bodalato, 5. Youlley
Right wing: 1. Tilio, 2. Brook, 3. irankunda, 4. Velupillay 5. Bennie
Left wing: 1. G Kuol, 2. Milanovic, 3. Chipperfield, 4. C Taylor 5. Grimaldi
Striker: 1. M Toure, 2. N Botic, 3. A Kuol, 4. J Reec, 5. Waddingham, 6. Jovanovic, 7. Caputo 8. Kurchaski 9. Wood 10. Ruhs
This is no less than 64 qualified outfield players! This is the fruit of the national curriculum and academies as it takes about 14 years for decisions made at youth development level to really make a difference at the olyroo level. 14 years is a long time to wait, but the golden age of technical development is between the ages of 9-13 so it takes a long time for a change in youth development to have an impact even at olyroos level let alone senior. It will similarly take until 2039 for all positive effects of the nst on youth development to trickle up. So if you see a change that needs to be made at youth level advocate for it now before we all die waiting!
Turning our attention to form, this is the first time I can remember we have been battle hardened with regular internationals in the lead up to the tournament. In the last few months we have come into some formidable form as a unit with 1 loss 5 draws and 6 wins where I am taking games that ended in penalty shootouts as draws. Qatar in the same period has 4 losses, 2 draws and 4 wins, South Korea has 5 wins, 2 losses and a draw whereas Japan has 4 wins, 2 losses and 2 draws. The replays of most of our matches can be found here.
How we compare to previous olyroos
Given our awful record at this level, especially against South Korea and Japan who will stand in our way to qualification, it is perhaps worth cheering ourselves by comparing our team to our previous two teams that both made the semis - though neither beat Japan or South Korea. Let's compare each year position for position. Keep in mind I am not comparing how good each player is today, just how they were in the lead up to the tournament (Bos today, for example is better than Farrell, but Farrell today is better than Bos in 2021/22!). I’ve mostly omitted players who are at a high level but hadn’t had a lot of game time to make the comparison as clean as possible. This sometimes means not selecting the best squad. I’ve highlighted the best lead in season in bold with 2020 shown in the first column, 2022 in the 2nd and 2024 in the 3rd
|Gersbach | Bos | Farrell
League |Denmark. | A league | A league
Fotmob rating | 6.1 | 7.2 | 7.6
|Ryan | Jay Rich Baghuelou | Popavic
League |Eredivisie | League 2 | A league/K league
Fotmob rating | N/A | 7.2 | 6.9/6.8
League |A league | Ekstraklasa | A league
Fotmob rating | 6.2 |N/A | 6.8
League |Seri c. | A league | A league
Fotmob rating | N/A | 7.1 | 6.7
|O’Niell | Nisbet | Teague
League |A league | A league | A league
Fotmob rating | 6.8 | 7.3 | 7.1
|Baccus | Yazbek | Holman
League |A league | A league | A league
Fotmob rating | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.2
|Metcalf | Najjarine | Segecic
League |A league | A league | ereste divisie
Fotmob rating | 6.6 | 6.8 | 6.8
|AlHassan Toure | Lachlan brook | Milanovic
League |A league | A league | A league
Fotmob rating | 6.3 | 6.6 | 7.5
|Italiano | Bernando | Lachlan Brook
League |German 4th tier | A league | A league
Fotmob rating | N/A | 6.8 | 7.0
|Buhagier | Yengi | A Kuol
League |A league | A league | A league
Fotmob rating. | 6.1 | 6.8 | 6.6
There is a clear improvement year on year which gets starker when you consider the euro contingent has been stronger each edition. Between the better xi, better depth from the bench and higher number of preparation games we will hope we have closed the gap enough to break new territory and knockout one of asia’s powerhouses
Fortunately, we are not the only ones to miss out on our european contingent with South Korea and Japan also losing some euro stars due to stingy clubs. Still, South Korea managed to get Celtic to release one of their players and Japan have two players in Belgium and one in the 2nd tier in Germany. We faced and outplayed close to South Korea’s best 11 in the WAFF championship who fielded the following outfield
Jyunsoo Byun - no senior appearances
Hyun Taek Cho - 16 total k league appearances, doesn't seem to have a fotmob profile
Youngjun Lee -2 k league games fotmob of 6.1, last season got 13 games, 3 goals 2 assists and a fotmob of 6.6
Kanghee Lee - no senior appearances
Jisung Eom -4 matches this year in k league, no fotmob rating, played 53 in total
Sanghoon Paik - fc seoul, 2 games fotmob of 6.1
Siyoung Jang - ulsan hyundai, no senior appearances
HyunJun Yang - celtic, 22 matches, fotmob of 6.8
SeongJin Kang - fc seoul 3 matches fotmob of 6.7
Jisoo Kim - brentford but no appearances, played 20 games for a relegated k league squad last year
All of these players made South Korea's final squad with 2 players in particular of note who can strengthen their first 11
Lee Tae-seok plays for fc seoul with 63 senior K-League appearances and a fotmob of 6.93 and Jeong Sang-bin has played 5 matches in the mls so far this season with a fotmob rating of 6.9. How much difference these players make remains to be seen. Japan look even more dangerous. They are able to field the following 11 with fotmob ratings in brackets. All players without an Asterix play in the J league
——————------—Nozawa (6.0)—————————
—Riku (7.1) -Nishio(6.8)—Suzuki (7.2)—Uchino*(6.6)—
——————-Kawasaki (7.0)-Yamamoto**(6.3)————
———————————Fujita**(6.8)————————-
————————Fujio(7.0)-Araki(7.5)-Hosoya(6.6)——-
**Plays in the Jupiler league in Belgium
If an Australian plays in the J league they can often be in contention for the socceroos, the fact that their u23s side is full of J league players holding their own brings home the depth of the challenge facing our young aussies. Having said that, even without so many Euro players, it has been decades since we have had an olyroos side this caliber and we have never been so well prepared so we have given ourselves every chance