By grazorblade - 23 Apr 2024 9:06 PM
First let's dispel the myth that we have had a bunch of underperforming wonderkids the last 15 years. Let us look at the early career stats of kids that made it compared to kids that didn't. In both the a league and nsl era since the mid 90s there have been 3 types of players that have made it at a top level
1) players who have broken through in a 2nd tier euro club by 23.
2) players who dominate the a league/nsl at a sufficiently young age. Now what do I mean by dominance - for a striker you want the all round game to be at least competent and at least 9-10 goals in a single season before leaving. For a striker we only have 1 example in mark viduka who was scoring nearly a goal a game before he was 19.
3) late bloomers who reach insane heights in the a league by their mid 20s
In principle there is a 4th category of players that break through in a big 5 club by 23 but we only have had 2 of those in our history in kewell and simunic where the latter didn't play for us. So too small a sample size to draw conclusions though we might have 2 players in this category in circati and volpato where the latter might anyway do a simunic.
Anyway, lets go through our history of players in each category and we will see a peak of players in this category just before the gg appeared as well as now. This list is incomplete and no doubt the older players have a sample bias regarding players that made it and ignores players that didn't. So any player that fits into these categories that I am missing, please let me know. To increase the sample size of historical successes I'm also including kiwis. The larger the sample size the more reliable the comparison
Early breakthrough in Europe
I could use some help with history here but as far as I can tell, we have the following players in category 1
1. Vince Grella (just, was turning 24 the year he broke through)
2. Bresciano
3. Tim Cahill
4. Emerton who is also in category 3
5. Alex Gersbach
6. Tommy Oar
7. Mat Ryan
8. Matthew Leckie
9. Tom Rogic (just, was turning 24 the year he broke through at celtic)
10. Culina (just, was turning 24 the year he broke through)
11. Hrustic (just, was turning 24 the year he broke through)
12. Viduka
13. Aloisi
14. Brett holman
15. Jackson irvine
16. Luongo (just, was turning 24 the year he broke through in the championship)
17. Christian vieri (didn't play for us but we developed him) broke through in the seri b at u21
18. Jason Davidson broke through at eredivisie at u23.
19, Scott mcdonald broke through at u22 in scotland
20. Liberto circaci (NZ) was first choice at u22 in belgium
21. Chris wood (NZ) was first choice at u21 in the championship
21. Ersam Gulum (turkey) broke through in the turkish league at u22 and played a ton of games for besiktas
22. Vince grella broke through in seri b at 23 (was turning 24)
23. Okon broke through in belgium at u22
24. Josh Kennedy was a buli 2 regular at u23
25. Kevin muscat (just, was turning 24 when he broke through in the english 2nd tier)
26. Skoko broke through in croatia at u22
27. Kilkenny has a career that is tricky to make sense of as he had a breakthrough season in the epl at u21 then never reached the same height. Added him late but perhaps he is the biggest disappointment of the a league era crew though didn't get much focus
28. Metcalf. Silly me he was born nov 1999 and broke through last season with 31 games in buli 2 which means he was 22/23 when breaking through
Apart from this we have Harry Kewell who broke through in the epl rather than a 2nd division at a young age, bosnich who was a regular in the epl at u23 and Simunic who just broke through in the first division before turning 24. These two players were truly exceptional even by the standards of our very best. So I'm aware of 31 players in total before the current mob and nearly all of them are our elite socceroos/other national teams as well as 2 nz players and 1 turkish player. I'm also only including golden gen players that made it. As you might note, I've included 3 a league era players that didn't reach great heights in Gersbach, Davidson and Oar who both had great starts to their careers. So these are 3 wonderkids that didn't live to their potential but still all made a good impact for the socceroos.
Notice how few a league era players in this category there were! We wanted there to be wonderkids but sadly were a bit subjective and seeing things we wanted to see.
The fact a few wonderkids peaked early isn't a surprise, given that a pfa analysis found that 1/3rd of players who get u20 minutes in the a league are lost to the game a few years later. About a 3rd of young players inexplicably peak early - in fact oars best season in his career was as a 22 year old eredivisie player. Still it appears to be a big green flag in a career to break through in europe before 23. Note also that players who achieve this earlier tend to be better as a mob than those who achieve it later, but every player that has achieved this has done something decent for the roos with the exception of scott mcdonald and most are standouts by our standards. So which players do we have now that are achieving this?
1. Tyrese Francois (just breaking through in denmark before 24)
2. Harry souttar (just broke through in the championship before turning 24)
3. Samuel Silvera (just breaking through in the championshi before turning 24)
4. Yazbek u22 (broke through last season)
5. Neiwenhof u23 broke through this season
6. Triantis u21 seems to be first choice on loan in the spl at a very young age
7. circati u21 and been first choice at the top of seri b and broke through last season. He could be in the freakish harry kewell category of breaking through in the big 5 before 23.
8. Volpato at u21 if we get him to play for us (I think he will since he is behind others in the italy team) is in and out of the starting spot in the seri a also putting him in that freakish category of breaking through in a 1st div league while young
9. bos has done great in the juliper league at u22
10. Genreu who played 37 games in ligue 2 at u23
Note that the current players that have achieved this are a larger group than the rest of the a league era combined with the younger players breaking through earlier. Note also that only 2 of these players were with the olyroos
I am also optimistic about kuol, toure and robertson.
- Robertson is widely believed to be the best player in league 1 this year and has time, perhaps with portsmouth. His next loan move is crucial
- Kuol was first choice for 7 games in the eredivisie before his club sacked their manager, technical director and they started parking the bus and having no wingers. He did quite well with a goal of the month and a neat little highlights package from a fan. Born in 2004 time is on his side but his next loan is vital and he looked bereft of confidence this tournament.
- Toure was getting starts in ligue 2 in france before a big injury. Finishing was a feature of his game before the injury which he just came back from. He has come off the bench the last 2 games. Born in 2004 he has so much time on his hands to reach this green flag
Early dominance of the a league
The second green flag is dominating the league at a young enough age. Lets look at the age and year of succesful roos and how many goals they scored. Again I would love some examples of nsl era roos that achieved this but had a less notably euro career.
1. Brett emerton (winger) u21 scored 9 in 31 games
2. Robbie Kruse (winger) u23 scored 11 and in 21 games
3. Mile Sterjovski (winger) u21 scored 11 in 31 games
4. Viduka (striker) 27 goals in 27 games at u20
5. Nikita Rukavytsya (striker/winger) 10 goals in 19 games at u22
Taking note of the positions they play is important. A goal every 4 games is strong for a winger and 1 goal in 2-3 games is dominant. However, for a striker a strong season is a goal every 2 games and dominant season is a goal every game. Note that all of them had at least 1 good season in the big 5 in their careers
What about the current mob? We have a few who have achieved this green flag
1. Riley mcgree (winger/cam) u22 scored 13 in 28 games
2. Marco Tilio (winger) u22 scored 10 goals in 31 games
3. Milanovic (winger) u23 scored 8 goals in 24 games so far
4. Brook (winger u23 scored 8 goals in 22 games so far
5. irankunda (winger u19) scored 8 in 23 games so far
6. Samuel silvera (winger u23) scored 8 in 29 games
I am also optimistic about Clayton Taylor, a u20 who has 7 goals in 24 games, Grimaldi (u21) with 5 goals, Rodriguez (u21) with 5 goals and Daniel Bennie because he first choice at u18. In CAM I am most optimistic about Bernando who had 5 goals from 16 games this season before injury and is u20, so time is on his side. For strikers I would only look at Waddingham (u19) who has 10 goals in 26 games in all comps, Max Caputo and Jovanovic are also u19 and have held starts for periods with both getting goals. I'm afraid all of them are behind viduka at the same age by a distance but well above anything we have produced in the a league era in terms of stats at the same age. So unfortunately the absolute elite attackers of the golden gen are ahead of our current mob. In any case note we have more players in this category than the rest of the a league era combined
Late bloomers
The third green flag are late bloomers. This category absolutely dominates the a league at a late age or they work their way slowly through europe, picking up huge amount of experience. Players I would put in this category are
1. Aaron mooy at u26 got 11 goals and 10 assists
2. chipperfield at u26 got 17 goals in 24 games from wing
3. Lazaridis left at u23 and took a while battle hardening in europe
4. Milos Jedinak spent ages in lower divisions of europe before breaking through in the epl as a u30
5. Tony Vidmar finally broke through at rangers at u29 after pottering around in australia, the eredvisie and fighting for game time at the rangers
6. Frank farina, hard to get stats but seems to have broken through in mid 20s for club brugge after dominating as a u24 for marconi
7. Schwarzer broke through at u27 in the epl after pottering around in lower divisions. Gks often break through later
8. Zelic broke through at u28 after a bunch of years getting game time in first divisions in the big 5
9. Tony popovic played in a lot of leagues but did peak in the epl where he managed 23 games in a season. Not a breakthrough but listing him due to his prominence
10. Robbie Slater played a ton of nsl and ligue 2 games before playing a bunch of epl games after 30
11. Tiatto's breakthrough season in europe was as an u27 player in the english 2nd tier after a ton of domestic games and he did well in the epl
12. Tony vidmar brokethrough in the eredivisie at u26 after a ton of domestic games and ended up playing for the rangers
13. Aurelio vidmar broke through at u25 in europe after a ton of domestic games then managed a 25 game season in the la liga
Of the current mob I am optimistic of the following
1. Nisbet u24 cm with 3 goals and 15 assists in 36 games at u25
2. jackson irvine u31 in automatic promotion spot with 4 games left
3. metcalf. Scapegoated for the national team is in automatic promotion at u25 and first choice and has a great skill set. I suspect fans will warm to him when he gets climatized more
4. Luongo u31 and in auto promotion spot most of the season after pottering round lower divisions. Very tight finish
5. Cameron burgess u29 and in an autopromotion spot most of the season after pottering around lower divisions. Again a tight finish
Again we have more current potential late bloomers than the rest of the a league era combined. Having said that, potential is not reality and this should only be pencilled in.
Conclusion
I would put to those saying "we have hyped players before" to look at their early career stats objectively. When did they first break through in europe? If they did well in the a league how many goals did they get from how many games before they left? What age were they when they achieved any of the above feat?s Keep in mind that a 3rd of players peak early, so its no surprise if a few players fade, these players are anyway replaced by the occasional late bloomer that comes from nowhere. So taking the next generation as a whole, we have, for the first time in 25 years objective reasons to be optimistic. I expect the nst will make a difference in helping kids get early minutes too as well as bringing back clubs who developed the golden gen back into the fold to some degree. So yes we had 3 poor games with a 2nd string olyroos, but look at how few of the players I lister were part of that squad and also 3 games as bad as they are, contrasted with our performance against good opponents in waff, in qatar last november and in france last summer. Yeah it hurts, but here is another fact from history
There is only one olyroos squad that failed to get a single point at the olympics between 1992 and 2004
It is the 2000 side that had
- home ground advantage
- mark viduka
- an unavailable harry kewell
- lazaridis
- skoko
-emerton
-neill
-culina
-bresciano
- grella
This mob after losing to hondurus went on to be the best we ever had. By contrast the team that made the final of a youth world cup was the worst we have ever produced. Youth players are inconsistent which is why tournament results at this age are such a poor predictor compared to club achievements.
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By LFC. - 29 Apr 2024 7:03 PM
+xA wonderkid is a player who performs like he belongs at senior level football at the age of 16.
That is generally my most basic definition. Late bloomers are an exception to the rule. However, the real World Class players were performing at a high-level in senior football when they were teenagers.
yes bud can't disagree, you see it by their poise on the ball and time and think wow this kid has it !
Its wonderful to see, pity we hardly deliver any them - Dukes was world class here by his poise and finish - HK was a wing speed machine with vision venom.
I love reviewing a player list like this and admire so many of these amazing footballers at young ages, some a bit later.
https://www.fourfourtwo.com/features/101-greatest-football-players-last-25-years-full-list
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