By grazorblade - 9 Sep 2024 3:46 PM
I always found it a compelling argument that, since the nsl got rid of p and r that it didnt work
To add to that, supporters of p and r tend to not defend p and r during the nsl era, saying it didnt work because it was an ad hoc system...but if we had a real p and r system it would work. So it always seemed to me that both sides conceded that p and r, at least in the form we had it, didnt work. This made it a debate between whether a proper p and r system would work and those that thought that an ad hoc system not working was evidence against any system
Im starting to question that narrative.
P and r is meant to produce the following benefits according to the academic literature
1) improvement of quality
2) growth of participation rate
3) growth of crowds because promoted teams gain more in attendance than relegated teams lose
On 1) it is very interesting to see the elo of the national team graphed over time
https://www.international-football.net/country?team=Australia
Ill digitize and analyse the plot later. But it seems that that if u take 1977 to 1993 there is a trend with plateaus before and afterwards.
From the ntc, apparently the most important era of youth development is between 9 and 13. The golden gen were born 75 (viduka) to 80(bresc etc) which meant their key era of youth development was 1984-1993. We declined after scrapping p and r but it takes a while to see the fruit of the decline. The numbers line up pretty well here actually.
Another interesting data point is that south melbourne effectively opted out of p and r earlier than the league as a whole. They also peaked with lazaridis (1972) and declined in terms of the quality of player they produced afterwards
On 2) id love to have data tho i imagine it is hard to analyse. Multiple factors contribute to participation rates including qualifying and hosting major tournaments. Still, if participation data is available for that era at least on a state level it might be interesting to see if you can detect and effect of p and r boosting participation
On 3) since we had no 2nd tier back then we had 100 odd clubs fighting for 1 or 2 positions in the nsl. So we rarely got to see a club promoted the year after relegation (in england on average there is one yoyo team per year). However, the few teams that did yoyo did show crowd growth when they did, an average boost of nearly 900. So p and r was helping attendences all other things held equally, just more slowly than it would have if there were intermediate leagues to make yoyoing more common. Having said that, the nsl actually collapsed a decade after p and r was scrapped which is at least some evidence it was more sustainable with p and r than without.
Im curious to hear peoples thoughts, i wasnt around at the time so might be missing some crucial bits of evidence for and against the type of p and r we had. But wanted to hear peoples thoughts, since at least at first glance it does seem even ad hoc p and r worked pretty well?
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By Monoethnic Social Club - 12 Sep 2024 4:16 PM
+x+x+x+xMon How much do you know about Sabit Jame Ngor, plays for Heidelberg United. Rumour on our forum he is signing with us on Thursday.... Sign him up IMMEDIATELY.... very silky winger (quite young still I believe) was a stand out at the Bergers this year, go back and re-watch the Heidelberg v CCM Australia Cup game, he tore your fullbacks to shreds.... Rumour is he has already signed and club is waiting on the best time to announce it..... He is getting lots of thumps up on our forum, its seen as a very astute and clever signing with most expecting him to be in the first 11..... seems many people agree with your assessment... BTW he has been on trail for a while now... Confirmed now. https://ccmariners.com.au/news/sabit-ngor-joins-central-coast-mariners-on-two-year-deal/
Nice mate, youll get alot of joy watching him this year....
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