Punters put their hearts on the line

* Sporting Chance, with Brad Clifton
* From: The Daily Telegraph
* June 18, 2010

THE Socceroos may have suffered the worst defeat in the first round of group matches, but patriotic punters have refused to rule out their ability to produce a massive turnaround in their World Cup fortunes.

The Aussies began the tournament, justifiably, as $67 outsiders to take the silverware.

But after that disastrous 4-0 thumping at the hands of the Germans, we are now $301 to pull off a footballing miracle.

The Socceroos are also the $7 outsiders in Group D to qualify for the round of 16 - out from $3 prior to the Germany match.

For Sunday's clash with Ghana, we've blown from $2.75 to $3.75.

But despite all this, TAB Sportsbet is reporting plenty of cash running the way of the Aussies, proving that many of us bet with our hearts and not our heads, especially when it comes to supporting the green and gold.

One thing to look forward to this weekend is, of course, the return of Harry Kewell, who is $9 to score the first goal.

LIVE betting is fraught with danger when the urge to make a quick profit overrides that small part of the brain that combats the impulsiveness of many punters.

Just ask those who decided the Kiwis couldn't possibly level the scores in injury time against Slovakia. There were bets of $30,000 at $1.10 and $11,000 at $1.05 on Slovakia to beat New Zealand late in the match, only for the All Whites to equalise with seconds to go.

On the other hand, it usually pays to take the very short odds for a seemingly guaranteed result, like the punter who put $240,000 at $1.03 on South Korea when they were leading 2-0 over Greece. It was never in doubt and he made a profit of $7200.

SO MUCH for the theory that the Cup's unpredictable Jabulani balls would result in a goal fest.

Those punters who have been sticking solid with the under 2.5 goals option for each match are cleaning up. Just three matches out of the first 17 saw more than 2.5 goals scored.

THEY broke the hearts of all Australians when they dismantled the Socceroos to the tune of 4-0, but it's now time for Aussie punters to embrace Germany.

If the Socceroos are any chance of getting through to the round of 16 we need the Germans to continue their demolition job and do to Serbia tonight what they did to us in Durban.

Germany firmed from $13 to $7 after walloping the Socceroos and they have been the best-backed team in title betting over the past week, shortening into $6.50 to take out the World Cup.

If they smash Serbia tonight, their price will tumble again, but there is another factor that could see teams such as Germany and Argentina shorten even further.

After title favourites Spain suffered a shock opening match defeat at the hands of Switzerland, they are now $3 second favourites - along with Chile - to top Group H, while Switzerland are $2.25.

If Spain do, in fact, come second in their group and Brazil top Group G - and they are paying $1.35 to do just that - it will set up a monumental round of 16 clash between the two current joint title favourites.

If that match eventuates, those teams on the next line of betting will firm considerably.

THE Poms have blown to $9 to win the Cup - out from $6.50 - and punters are giving them a wide berth since their "Hand of Clod" debacle against the USA.


http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sport/punters-put-their-hearts-on-the-line/story-e6freyar-1225881076254