just wanted to acknowledge that this could happen. iraq are likely to thump palestine. they have conceded 4 goals in both games.

jordan is playing for a finals birth. they have everything to lose. if they beat japan by 2 goals they go ahead of them.

this is a real possibility. it means that we will have the best run to the final possible.

jordan beat japan last time they met!

I find it hard to imagine Jordan will beat Japan by two goals tbh.

Mathematically possible, realistically improbable.

Although I think all Jordan has to do is win no? Doesn't matter how much by? Or does it depend on the margin of Iraq and Palestine?

Either way I see it as irrelevant. Japan will put the cleaners through them I envisage.

Even though wiki says otherwise, I am pretty sure head to head carries greater weight than goal difference so all they have to do is jag a win.

I thought head to head to head comes first, so i Jordan win it doesn't matter the goal difference.

Means Japan will put out full team and Jordan will be going 110%

Who cares, UAE is more likely to upset japan. Be afraid of UAE.

Wiki states: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_AFC_Asian_Cup#Tiebreakers , sourced from http://www.afcasiancup.com/i/AsianCup/img/pdfs/2015_Competition_Regulations.pdf


Tiebreakers

The teams are ranked according to points (3 points for a win, 1 point for a tie, 0 points for a loss). If tied on points, tiebreakers are applied in the following order:[24]

1. Greater number of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned
2. Goal difference resulting from the group matches between the teams concerned
3. Greater number of goals scored in the group matches between the teams concerned
4. Goal difference in all the group matches
5. Greater number of goals scored in all the group matches
6. Penalty shoot-out if only two teams are involved and they are both on the field of play
7. Lower score calculated according to the number of yellow and red cards received in the group matches (1 point for a single yellow card, 3 points for a red card as a consequence of two yellow cards, 3 points for a direct red card, 4 points for a yellow card followed by a direct red card)
8. Drawing of lots

If Jordan beat Japan by 1 goal, and Iraq wins by 4-0 against Palestine

This means:
Jordan 6 points
Japan 6 points
Iraq 6 points

1. The first tie breaker is head to head between the teams involved and it would mean Jordan > Japan > Iraq > Jordan (repeating)

2. So then it will go down to goal difference between the 3 teams in the matches concerned, Jordan 1-1. Japan 1-1 Iraq 1-1

3. Then greatest number of goals scored with the teams concerned,

Jordan 1, Japan 1, Iraq 1

4. then goal difference in ALL group matches (including vs palestine),

Japan 4, Jordan 4, Iraq 4

5. Then greatest number of Goals scored,

Jordan 6, Japan 5, Iraq 5,

Jordan finishes 1st in Group, however still need to determine 2nd place

6. is N/A as Iraq is not playing Japan in the final group game

7. Calculation of cards to seperate Japan and Iraq :lol: , 1 point for yellow, 3 points for red.

At the moment, Iraq is 5 points, Japan is 2 points, Japan would go through on cards

8. Drawing of lots

Have I gotten that right? :lol: :Lol: :lol:

Edited by axelv: 19/1/2015 10:42:07 PM

I'm still trying to get head around it. I still don't get why number 2 and 3 exist as they're null in the event of a draw anyway. How can you have a better goal difference against another team you drew with? Am I missing something here?

You can have better goal difference than the team you drew with if there is a 3rd or 4th team on equal points.

E.g lets say in a situation: (this is fictional)

Iraq 1 Jordan 0
Japan 2 Iraq 0
Jordan 3 Japan 0

2. Head to head we have the repeating triangle of Jordan > Japan > Iraq > Jordan

3. Comes into effect

Jordan would be 1st on goal difference with the teams concerned, Japan would be 2nd on goal difference, Iraq 3rd

So it seems it's there for 3-4 teams on equal points who drew but not 2. If 2 teams who drew have the same points then it goes straight down to overall GD, right?

Spot on!

So...

Tomorrows games as simple as possible,

If Jordan beat Japan by 1 goal, Jordan finishes above Japan.

If true

and Iraq wins by 5 goals or more against Palestine, or Iraq scores more goals total than Japan ,

e.g Japan scores 0 tomorrow and Iraq wins 5-1, means equal GD but Japan 5 goals total, Iraq 6 goals total

Then Iraq is through and Japan is knocked out.


Palestine are an amateur team, Iraq thrashing them by 4-5 goals or more is very possible.

Jordan are also a decent team, although Japan are heavy favourites, Jordan is the type of team that can top their group if an Asian World Cup team is not involved. This is at a neutral venue.

Edited by axelv: 19/1/2015 11:11:27 PM

Hey, we're missing the other big chance:

Japan win and Palestine win by 7! Japan and Palestine through!

Seriously though, a 2 goal Jordanian win, and an Iraqi win would be Jordan and Iraq through. It's quite possible, not likely, but not improbable either.

Let's say Jordan sneaks a 1-0 win over Japan, and Iraq beats Palestine 3-0. You get a full table of:

Team |   GF |   GA |   GD |   Pts
Jordan |   6 |   2 |   +4 |   6
Japan |   5   1 |   +4 |   6
Iraq |   3 |   1 |   +3 |   6
Palestine |   1 |   12 |   −11 |   0

So with three teams tied on points, you get a mini group of the three drawn teams with the Palestine results omitted:

Team |   GF |   GA |   GD |   Pts
Jordan |   1   1 |   0 |   3
Japan |   1 |   1 |   0 |   3
Iraq |   1 |   1 |   0 |   3   

Tiebreaker criteria 1 through 3 are not settled, so in this case Japan and Jordan go above Iraq on criteria 4 (goal difference in all the group matches) and Jordan beat Japan on criteria 5 (Greater number of goals scored in all the group matches), unfortunately eliminating the possibility of criteria 6 to come into play to separate Japan and Jordan on penalties, which has never happened in a major tournament before to my knowledge.

If, however, Iraq beats Palestine by 5 or more goals (entirely likely) Japan would be out underneath Iraq on criteria 4.

Most likely though it'll be wins for Japan and Iraq and all this maths was for nothing.

Edited by paladisious: 20/1/2015 12:09:17 AM

im pretty sure the tiebreaker only comes into effect if the goals difference is the same overall. i think the same thing applies for overall goals. these are not considered a tie, these are a straight forward win.

so if jordan and iraq are on 6 points and have a greater goal difference then they go through.

if jordan, iraq, japan are all on the same points with the same goal difference (and possibly the same goals for and against) then the tiebreaker rules come into effect.

im pretty sure that that outcome means jordan and japan go through. it is not a tiebreaker if they have a different goal difference.

Edited by inala brah: 20/1/2015 05:08:00 PM