England XI for first Test: Rory Burns, Jason Roy, Joe Root (c), Joe Denly, Jos Buttler, Ben Stokes, Jonny Bairstow, Moeen Ali, Chris Woakes, Stuart Broad, James Anderson.

interesting side

top order looks shakey but they bat quite deep

I wonder when the Aus team is announced?

Top order looks very shaky IMO, I don't think it matters which bowlers Australia play they should easily bowl this particular Eng side out cheaply. A lot of all rounders, in other words a lot of Mitchel Marshes.
Rory Burns, averages 22 I'd call him one of Australia's opening bowlers potential batting bunnies.
Jason Roy only 1 test no idea how he will go.
Joe Root batting No 3 drops his average by 10 runs per innings.
Joe Denly av 24 (FC only 35) surely England have someone better than that, another batting bunny.
Jos Butler 1 century from 36 games? not a match turner there.
Ben Stokes is probably one of England's better batsmen but that's not saying much av 32, the last time he scored runs at test level was 2016/17 since then only scored about 4 50's, 50 % of his innings are under 20, his average is really inflated by his 258 in SA Jan 2016, otherwise no better than Mitchell Marsh in recent times IMO.

Johnny Bairstow probably the most consistent batsman they have, but may run out of partners. 
Moeen Ali is another that hasn't done much in the last 2 years scoring only 2 50 in that time but has a great record in England, but IMO is relying on what he did early in his career for the "great all-rounder"tag. As a bowler his last 2 years have been great, 
Chris Woakes great innings last year against India scoring 138 and along with Bairstow won that particular game for them, but not a lot of other scores, sort of like Cummins. His bowling only 6 times has he taken 5 or more wickets in 27 tests maybe an England specialist bowler.

Stuart Broad recently last 12 matches has taken 5 or more wickets 4 times which is not great, better than Hazlewood, but we're all expecting Hazlewood not to play much, so Broad must be borderline in their selection, but since 2017 he has taken 46 wickets (14 tests) compared to our current opening bowlers Starc 44 (12 tests) and Hazlewood 28 (9 tests) so he maybe slightly ahead there, but with Joffra Archer breathing down his neck may not see the series out.

James Anderson, though older now still producing last 2 years 53 wickets @22.5 and is the key to the series, how well will Australia's batsmen play his swing bowling? This is where I would agree with Baggers that Labuchagne has produced runs in England against some swing, nowhere near the bowling ability of Anderson, but has produced. By the end of this series we may be privileged to see him take his 600th wicket making him the first pace bowler to do so, a true legend of the game.

I can't see England batsmen scoring 500 runs for the test even against the current bowling line up of Starc, Hazlewood, Cummins and Lyon, the talent in batting is just not there, and they will chase deliveries due to their concentration on limited over format and catches will be hit. it probably explains why they are currently only 4th on the ICC rankings but No 1 in ODI's (they can last 50 overs but can they last 100?). But we are 5th so a close battle, will our batsmen overcome the swing of Anderson? Can't wait to see our side and the Ashes start tonight, bring it on. I'll predict 2-1 series win to Australia.

Jason Roy averages around 38 at both first class and test. His technique looked good against the swinging ball in the semi. Perhaps he has concentration issues

Cummins and Pattinson confirmed starters. Siddle or Hazelwood (if he returns to form) will make a pretty special pace trio with lyon as well

I think if we don't select Marsh we might be a touch better than 50-50. We'll see though

I think if we score 600 runs across 2 innings we probably win the test. Just need to do that more often than not....

I'd agree we need a batsman at 6 Wade or Labuchagne with Head at 5. Personally start with Labuchagne, for the first test if fails bring Wade in. Personally my batting line up would be, Warner, Bancroft, Harris, Smith, Khawaja, Head, Paine. If Warner does go cheaply by playing the big shot,as he is known to do, another opener to come in, can't be a bad thing, and you get a good batsman in Harris or Bancroft definitely in the side. But selectors are proven not to be great thinkers.

that looks a long line up and with our bowling lineup its justified I think. Head and smith can bowl 4 overs an innings between them

I wonder if Khawaja could have a big series since England only really have ali

Few comments as I think the teams will be balanced heading into the first test. I am slightly favouring England. 

First off, forget about dreams of either team scoring 500. That may happen in 1 test. This is England. Look at the India and South Africa scores there in the last 2 years. Not a single score of 500. Not one.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_African_cricket_team_in_England_in_2017

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_cricket_team_in_England_in_2018

The conditions are made for bowlers. Even spinners will come into the series if there are footmarks.

Second, Pattinson is a walk into the Australian team right now for this test. Starc is gone. Unless someone gets injured before the toss, Pattinson is playing and he is a better bowler than Starc - esp in England. But Aus has no allrounders unless they play Marsh. But rumours are Wade will bat 6. So Aus will have to bowl Lyon early in England, and he may get no response. And that new swinging dukes is not being best used. But - footmarks will come into the games later on as they do every year for Moeen Ali. 

Woakes is beyond a flukey batsman. He is a premier allrounder - and has edged out Sam Curran for the spot despite him being player of the year  last year and dominant in series wins over India and in SL. Broad is battling with Archer for the next spot. As England know they need the runs that Woakes and/or Curran provide.

These pitches are going to produce a lot of 200-350 scores. Even with endless big scores from Kohli last year that is all India could obtain. Even if Smith does the same, who else is going to knuckle down and not follow the swing outside off stump? Who else has the hand-eye to put bat on the inswinger coming in again and again?

Woakes will swing it all day. Stokes will get an inswinger going with the old ball. Jimmy will swing it well. And even Broad gets the ball to hoop after pitching a lot - simply cos Dukes and England. And Archer will appear at some point in this series. Curran is an awful skiddy bowler who over pitches a lot, but he makes the Dukes hoop in England while doing so. He's really a pie chucker, that simply bends it like Beckham over there when there's clouds.

In the Indian and SA test series (admittedly TRJ played in the SA series) - the English bowlers gave nothing away. Just nothing. The loosest bowling was Stokes and Curran, and they swere swinging it and taking wickets while getting smashed for 4's.

Even if Aus win this first test, England then bring in Archer, and an injury to Woakes means SCurran comes in. The only players England cannot afford to lose are Root and Anderson. The entire rest of the team is replaceable. Leach is the best spinner in England by a country mile. He's not even in the squad. Wood was their best bowler in the WI, not even in the squad. Foakes was a superstar keeperbatsman and got Jonny Bairstow dropped in 2018, not in the squad. England has no top order batting, but they have depth elsewhere. A complete and utter glut of allrounders and even seamers. And they are used to completely rejinking their team on the regular. They've been doing it for years now.

The really exciting thing about cricket in England, is that it is a shoot out. Every 50 run partnership matters so much. Especially those that occur before the second new ball - this is why Curran and Woakes are so critical to England. So so much. 200 is defensible in the 4th innings. The game is almost always alive and on a knife's edge. Fortunately for Australia, Pattinson and Cummin's batting means the Aus tail at 8 and 9 - isn't that horrid.

I wouldn't be worried about scoring 500. It is not Australian roads. 

England tests in the past 2 years have literally been - if the bowlers have one bad session - that test is likely to be lost. Philander went down for SA. Series over. Ashwin bowled poorly for India missing the footmarks, series over. On the flip side, England in trouble, Curran spanks a 60 odd with the tail, England back in the game and on top. Woakes scores a ton, innings defeat for India.

The pressure is really on the bowlers to keep and maintain high intensity - cos the batsmen know they will get a swinging or nipping ball at any moment that not even Bradman would keep out. The real question is how to handle the spell when the England top order is out, but the premier bowlers are being rested. England knows how to play this, Stokes, Bairstow, Buttler, Ali, Woakes - they will thrash it as soon as it is 6 wickets down.

Complaining at selectors not being good thinkers then selecting two batsman in positions theyve never really played before? Hmm. 

Ali has been magnificent in England for years now. But he won't be a problem for Uzzie. Ali gets the right handers from the footmarks. Uzzie has nothing to fear here being a leftie himself. But Leach is by far England's best spin bowler, and a leftie. He could come into the series later on. 

Good to see you Paddles, so you're prediction for the series? Are you saying their selectors have made a few errors in selections? Do you see much in England's batting line up except for Root and Bairstow? Too me relying on all-rounders which England appear to be doing is a worrying sign for them, no consistency IMO, however they did do a job on India bowling them out for 162, 107, 130, 184, something we couldn't do but to me that is more a sign of the pathetic bowling attack we had. With Pattinson and possibly Siddle coming into the side that is a big positive for Australia.

England's top order has been pathetic for years now. And it is worse with Cook retiring early. England's batting strength is the lower middle order, cos they keep comming out to 9 and sometimes 10 (swap Broad for SCurran or Archer and youll see what I mean).

Archer is injured. Wood is injured. And Leach doesn't bat. So the only real issue is SCurran missing out. B Foakes will get more opportunities, but in a test last year, England had Burns, Buttler, Bairstow and Foakes, - how many wicket keepers you need? Denly has FC form over Foakes - so shrug.

If it doesn't swing, I like Aussie's chances more. But given the swing, I could see some capitulations by Australia too. England are used to playing in chaos with wickets tumbling. Happens game after game over there.

It really is knock out cricket over there. The games are continually exciting for the most part. I'm interested as to how Roy will play. Will he just slog it? If he comes off, England might have stumbled onto something. 

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/stats/index.html?batting_positionmax1=2;batting_positionval1=batting_position;class=1;filter=advanced;orderby=runs;spanmin1=21+Aug+2012;spanval1=span;team=1;template=results;type=batting

I love this list.

I think the England batting is underestimated. Roy, Butler, Bairstow, Stokes Ali and Woakes are all inconsistent but can win a match off the bat on their day. Only need 1-2 to really stand up and make a big score if Root sticks around to get somewhere

England desperately try to find 600 to 700 runs a game to win the game. They do this by batting deep. Ali and Woakes will bat 8 and 9. 

Their top order has been a shambles for a long time. Noone really knows what Burns, Roy or Denly are capable of, cos they have played a handful of tests between them, and even less in England itself.

Great to see you back, Paddles.

Love your input, mate.

Since you were last here, I've caught up with Baggers in Sydney. I made him drink a lot  craft beers he hadn't had before!

Anderson is getting some swing! 

Both Aussie openers are lucky to be there after just a few overs. 

The review from Broad for LBW was too high after DRS. 

Broad is bowling 145 kph! 

He seems to be pitching the ball further  up than I would have expected. 

Warner gone LBW to Broad for 1! Test cricket is a lot harder than One Day. Warner has played no red ball cricket for 18 months. 

The LBW was missing the stumps, going wide,  but Aus didn’t review. 

Bancroft had technical issues before he was banned. 

I doubt he has sorted them out playing County Div 2. 

England are right on top at 1-3. 

Bancroft caught in first slip off Anderson to an outside edge for 8. 

Dreadful start Aus. 

2-17. 

What is the scenario for England regarding wicketkeeping? 

Jos Buttler kept in the WC and  is now fielding at bat pad, whilst Bairstow is now keeping whilst often fielding in the outer in the WC. 

Lovely what I thought was an outswinger from Broad beating the outside edge of Smith, but Atherton called it a leg cutter. 

I think  I can bowl a leg cutter, but not an outswinger. 

Warner never looked comfortable. Bancroft wafted at one he shudda left. Bad start yet again in England. We never start well against the Dukes in overcast Pommie condition so why the hell did Paine opt to bat first.  Surely giving express men Pattinson and Cummins first crack at this deck is the way to go. Now the Pommies have a sniff and first bragging rights.

Not that up with the mechanics of the two. But a swinging ball is determined by the seam position whereas a leg cutter is the finger action across the ball. Is that correct?

True, but Australia  have fought back at 3-79. If Smith and Head can stick around for a while and if Anderson is injured, the Poms could be in for a lot of leather chasing. Nothing better than watching Pommie bowlers like Broad wasting precious bowling energy chasing leather. 

Hey Fella. Sounds like good times. I enjoy you both. I'll be around on here and GP for the Ashes both. :)

It seems like Anderson could be injured. 

Anything over 250 keeps Aussie in the game. Aus have to be mindful of this. This is not Australian conditions.

The problem Australia have is the lack of a 4th seamer. But Mitch Marsh is not an option. So if Wade gets a 50 here, Aus selectors have made a master stroke. But it will take the Aus bowling unit to get the length and wrist position right. Banana boy and Pattinson will have to bowl big overs with Patty.

Good day, Paddles. 

We haven’t seen you for a while. Good to have you back old son.