The Australian Politics thread: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese


The Australian Politics thread: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese

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macktheknife
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He's on another planet.
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afromanGT
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Andrew Bolt, you make me cringe.
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Joffa
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12 SEPTEMBER 2012


Welcome to austerity: Queensland's horror budget

BEN ELTHAM

The LNP's determination to cut spending while holding revenue flat is an ideological decision. Queensland's horror budget wasn't necessary, writes Ben Eltham.

Massive budget cuts. More than 14,000 government job cuts. Basic services reduced, especially in health, housing and public works.

Welcome to austerity, Queensland-style.

The Queensland Liberal-National Party's horror first budget has certainly sent a message about the priorities of the incoming government. It was, to quote Treasurer Tim Nicholls, "the most important budget in a generation".

What were the priorities of this budget?

One way to gauge them is to compare the LNP's savings measures to its revenue measures. The Government inherited a deficit. Like any government facing a shortfall, Campbell Newman and his cabinet basically had two options if they wanted to move back to surplus. One was to increase revenue. The other was to reduce spending.

A "neutral" approach to addressing the deficit might therefore have been to fund about half of the shortfall from raising taxes, and the other half from cutting spending. That hasn't been the Government's approach.

On the spending side of the ledger, Queensland will cut $3.49 billion in recurrent spending, and investment in capital works by $1.8 billion.

But Queensland plans to raise only $624 million in higher taxes, mainly in the form of a higher coal mining royalty. This is despite the fact that revenue this year is actually $3 billion less than forecast, because mining royalties and stamp duties are much lower than expected.

In fact, the LNP is even giving Queenslanders several tax cuts and hand-outs, including an $80 water bill rebate, a big increase in the first home buyers grant, and a freeze on electricity bills, which will also cost the state money because it will be paid out of general revenue.

We all know who's paying the price for this approach to repairing the budget: public servants. With more than 14,000 jobs to go, there will be plenty of pain amongst government-sector workers. A number of departments are losing a tenth of their workforce. Housing and Public Works will lose more than a quarter - 1,425 jobs from a previous total of 5,448. Smaller departments will also be hit hard. Transport and Main Roads will lose 1,450 jobs. Justice and Attorney-General will lose 510 jobs. Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry will lose 450.

This is significant job shedding in anyone's language. Health is losing more than 4,100 workers, some of whom will inevitably be doctors and nurses, whatever the rhetoric about "frontline services" being spared.

Dig into the health budget out-years and you can see where Tim Nicholls is saving his money. While the overall health budget will continue to grow, the state will actually spend less money on health and hospitals.

Ironically, the magic pudding is actually Kevin Rudd's health reform money. In 2011-12, the state estimates it will appropriate $11.223 billion for Queensland Health. In 2012-13, it will appropriate only $9.107 billion. Instead of increasing health outcomes in line with the 2010 health and hospitals reforms, Queensland is taking the extra money from Canberra and banking the savings. As I read it, that might even be a breach of the National Health Reform Agreement that the states signed up to in 2011.

Education is the other really big item of any state's spending. Here, the LNP has tried to disguise the pain. There will be 405 redundancies and savings measures of $878 million over the forward estimates. But the real savings will come in future years by withholding indexation. The state's contribution to primary and secondary school funding in Queensland will be $5.260 billion this year, and $5.276 billion next year. That's an increase of only 0.3 per cent. Commonwealth funding, by contrast, is rising by 13 per cent. As the Gonski review tells us, education costs for state government schools have risen by between 6.8 per cent and 8 per cent per year over the past decade. Queensland plans to hold schools funding well below the rate of cost inflation for primary and second schools for the next four years.

Is all this pain necessary? In a word: no.

The LNP's determination to cut spending while holding revenue flat is an ideological decision. The gravity of Queensland's debt position has been consistently misrepresented by Campbell Newman and his party; wild claims have been made about the state's similarity to heavily indebted European nations like Spain. The LNP's misinformation has been particularly dubious around the figure of "$100 billion of debt" - an entirely hypothetical figure, based on a projection out to 2019. None-the-less, Newman was still using the number last night on Lateline.

If paying down debt was the true priority, then surely more revenue could have been found. As University of Queensland economics professor John Quiggin has pointed out in his review (PDF) of Peter Costello's Commission of Audit, Queensland has always been a low-taxing state by national standards. It has consistently maintained lower rates and higher thresholds for payroll tax and land tax than its southern cousins.

Quiggin argues:

"Simply by matching the thresholds and rates applicable to land and payroll tax applicable in New South Wales, Queensland could raise up to $1 billion a year in additional revenue."

"The shortfall in tax revenue caused by these unjustified concessions is the primary reason for Queensland's budget difficulties."

Even if reducing the size of government was the real priority all along, Queensland could have slimmed down much more gradually. Pushing through these job reductions over a longer time period through natural attrition, rather than slashing 14,000 in forced redundancies this fiscal year, could have saved some of the $800 million that the state will now pay out in redundancy packages. It would also have saved a lot of hardship amongst the families of those laid off.

The truth is that, in overall terms, Queensland's public finances are quite healthy. The Sunshine State's debt will peak at less than 20 per cent of gross state product, and by 2014-15 Queensland will be running a $2.8 billion operating surplus. The LNP has moved Queensland's surplus forward by two years, but at a terrible cost to Queensland's public servants, and at the risk of a big future impact on the state's hospital waiting lists.

Ben Eltham is a writer, journalist, researcher and creative producer from Melbourne, Australia. View his full profile here.

http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/4256116.html

Edited by Joffa: 5/9/2013 09:08:16 PM
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Nice one LNP, smuggle all of your negative policies during the last few days before election and during the media blackout.

This is the standard of government we are going to get.
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andrew bolt what a wonderful human being:lol: has any one tried tweeting him on his liberal bias , guys a nutjob :lol:
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9 Years Ago by MvFCArsenal16.8
afromanGT
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MvFCArsenal16.8 wrote:
andrew bolt what a wonderful human being:lol: has any one tried tweeting him on his liberal bias , guys a nutjob :lol:

That would be about as useful as calling out batfink on his nonsense.
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9 Years Ago by afromanGT
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he mostly ignores it. but somehow turns a random question into a blame labour tweet :lol:
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9 Years Ago by MvFCArsenal16.8
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Coalition announces internet filter ... and immediately backs down

Date
September 5, 2013 - 9:18PM

The Coalition has made an embarrassing backdown from a commitment that it would require internet service providers to censor "adult content", saying a policy document it released two days before the election was "in error".

On Thursday afternoon the Coalition's $10 million "Policy to Enhance Online Safety for Children" seemed to resurrect an Australian internet filter.

Under the last-minute plan - which was not accompanied by any press release or announcement - Australian mobile phone and internet service providers would be required to censor ‘‘adult content’’ on the internet unless users opt out.

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But by Thursday evening, the Coalition’s communications spokesman, Malcolm Turnbull, announced the policy had been changed so that users would opt in if they wanted the filter.

‘‘All I can say to you is mistakes happen,’’ Mr Turnbull said. ‘‘As soon as I became aware of the policy having been released in the form it was I took steps to correct it.’’

However, at 5.30pm on Thursday, Mr Turnbull had defended the opt-out feature of the surprise policy during an appearance on ABC Radio, saying "What [our policy] does is essentially install that software either in the smartphone or in the modem as a default which you can switch off but then that's at your call."

In announcing the opt-out filter's demise, Mr Turnbull later tried to explain his earlier defence of the "incorrect" policy.

‘‘I read the policy for the first time when it was released this afternoon,’’ he said.

‘‘I defended it as best I could and then as soon as I had an opportunity to ensure that it was withdrawn and corrected I did.’’

The policy had received the tick of approval from Opposition Leader Tony Abbott and other senior Liberals before being released.

Opposition Leader Tony Abbott has admitted he read and signed off on the election policy document, saying the Coalition would impose a blanket internet filter on Australians.

“I read the policy last night, quickly it has to be said, and I thought it was a reference to the ability of people to get PC-based filter that’s what I thought it was,” Mr Abbott said.

“I’m sorry it was badly worded.”

Mr Abbott defended the quality and detail of the rest of the Coalition’s policies after the debacle was revealed.

“In this particular instance, there was a failure of quality of control.”

“There was a badly worded sentence or two in the document that went out or earlier today. The fact is we think there should be commercially available filters for PC and mobile phone users to opt in to if they wish.”

He clarified the Coalition's stance, saying: “We don’t support internet filtering, we’ve never supported internet filtering.”

The Rudd government was the only government to support internet filtering, he said.

At the time of the policy's launch, Liberal MP Paul Fletcher, chairman of the Coalition’s online safety working group, had told Fairfax the policy was ‘‘about protecting children’’.

Liberal MP Alex Hawke, on Thursday afternoon said: ‘‘Our point is for the welfare of children going forward, where people aren’t necessarily up to date.’’

Mr Turnbull said the Coalition had supported the rights of consumers to install their own net filtering software, but had long opposed compulsory filters.

‘‘These filters don't work,’’ he said. ‘‘They're so easy to get around.’’

‘‘One of my key criticisms of the Conroy filter was it created a false sense of security.’’

Other senior Liberals were also seemingly caught unawares by the policy document: ‘‘That's news to me,'' shadow treasurer Joe Hockey said in an appearance on Channel 10’s The Project.

"I will check it out’’.

The announcement and immediate reversal came almost a year after Labor abandoned a mandatory internet filter, which the Coalition opposed.

with Lucy Battersby



Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/coalition-announces-internet-filter--and-immediately-backs-down-20130905-2t7nb.html#ixzz2e1Cw9FfD
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9 Years Ago by Joffa
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LNP can't handle viral shit, what a surprise.

Before I used to laugh about Abbott and being the PM, didn't really think it would be that bad (QLD has survived Newman, just, thus far) but now I am genuinely scared for the future of this country.

-PB

https://i.imgur.com/batge7K.jpg

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didnt the guy who set up dontbea fuckingiddiot get calls from the opposition party's lawyers demanding his address?
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9 Years Ago by MvFCArsenal16.8
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Joffa wrote:
afromanGT wrote:
Quote:
The policy where they clearly introduce a mandatory (but 'opt-out') internet filter wasn't actually their plan.

Their plan was actually "we encourage ISP's to install their own filters and offer them to parents."

Wow. I'm glad that was clarified.

Release policy. 3 hours later, backflip on it. This is the party people are voting into office on Saturday. Fuck me.



They've only had three years....
Labor's had six.
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9 Years Ago by thupercoach
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paulbagzFC wrote:
Before I used to laugh about Abbott and being the PM, didn't really think it would be that bad (QLD has survived Newman, just, thus far) but now I am genuinely scared for the future of this country.

-PB


Tbh I felt the same when everyone voted for labour in 07 purely because of the hype around "kevin 07". If labour lovers genuinely think that labour hasn't let the country get shitter in their spell, there will without a doubt be similar for liberal lovers in 3-6 years time.

This election is a classic case of giant douche vs turd sandwich - and it still makes no sense to me why it comes down to two individuals when it's actually parties being voted in.

Labour or liberal - there's going to be a large amount of opposing views pissed off by the choice.

What labour lovers really need to do is have a look at the fact that labour has been in for 6 years - and ask themselves how exactly have they seemingly lost the faith of the public so "easily"? How can it be basically predictable that liberal will win on Saturday, after labour have had 6 years to get their shit together and prove to australia that they're the right party for them? Sounds to me that liberal may be a scary prospect - but how have labour fxxxed up the faith of Australia so badly?
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I'd rather a Government who fuck up 'talking' or 'communicating' (which is just BS because it's up to the media in Australia to report the news properly) than a Government who are just fucked up, introduce fucked up policies (no matter how well they 'communicate' them), and will hand our country over lock and stock to mining companies, billionaires and the insane Christian right wing.
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Omg it's the costings ppl the god forsaken liberal costings we're all gonna die arrrgghhhhhhhhhhh!!!!


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Hockey announces Coalition costings

Remember all the times shadow treasurer Joe Hockey furrowed his brow, shook his jowls and growled that Australia had a budget crisis? Turns out he was only joking.

Either that or his “costings” disclosure is a joke. Or both.


After all the huffing and puffing, Hockeynomics is only proposing a $6 billion improvement in the budget’s cash bottom line over four years. In light of the past four years of hyperbolic fiscal posturing, this is genuinely astounding.

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Even if you take year three and four budget projections seriously (and you really can’t, as everyone should now know), that works out to be an average improvement of $1.5 billion a year on a $400 billion budget – all of 0.375 per cent. It’s not even a rounding error. A half-decent Queensland storm can blow that away in half an hour.

By way of comparison, Tony Abbott is blowing $1.8 billion on reviving the novated lease/FBT tax lurk enjoyed by a minority of new car buyers, let alone an even smaller minority of voters. Consider the massive percentage increase in the Coalition’s budget improvement goal that could be obtained by implementing just this one tax policy based on principle and equity instead of subsidising a few salary packaging firms. Hey Joe, do the math.



VIDEO: 'He's hiding something'

(My suspicion is that this particular branch of the tax minimisation industry is very fortunate Labor didn’t accept Treasury’s advice to fix the rapidly-expanding anomaly when it was first offered. If the reform had been a little further away from the election, Joe would have done the head shake again and moaned about needing to responsibly accept some things that he didn’t like, as he has with the rest of Labor’s savings. So it goes. )

The partial, belated and not-at-all-guaranteed guesses about Hockeynomics’ savings and costings only confirm the suspicion that the Coalition has never been serious in its ranting about deficits and debts, that we don’t actually have a budget crisis. Alternatively, the Coalition is not serious about tightening fiscal policy when it would be responsible to do so – in those somewhat vague years three and four.

It’s not unreasonable to claim that the Coalition isn’t making any savings worth mentioning despite the many billions claimed - their “savings” mostly are immediately spent again and thus don’t save anything. In fiscal terms, rather than promising to be the ideological demons conjured by Kevin Rudd, the Liberal Party is offering itself as Tweedle Dum to Labor’s Tweedle Dee.

That’s mainly good news in the short term. It could indicate that the Coalition understands that trying to slash the deficit this year would be bad and dangerous policy, that the budget updated by Chris Bowen a month ago is basically sound, that the economy needs that budget’s $30 billion or so of deficit stimulus and is likely to still require a light touch in 2014-15. The wild world willing, we could be on track to handle renewed discipline in those projection years, or so we hope.

And that’s the bad news - there’s no sign that Abbott/Hockey won’t be as populist and fiscally hopeless as the final Howard/Costello administration. Oh, it was a grand old party over those final three years, the punch spiked twice over, but everyone’s forgotten that it was forcing the Reserve Bank to hit the brakes so hard we were heading for a recession, saved only by the GFC giving us a soft landing.

The challenge this time is different, but it also requires honesty that has been seriously lacking on both sides of the game. Australian governments really can’t keep promising to give people more and tax them less. The longer the pain of our looming demographic challenge is postponed, the much worse it will soon enough be.

The rhetoric about the Coalition “always being better economic managers” is likely to provide a honeymoon business confidence boost, but it doesn’t actually mean anything - as inane as the claim that “interest rates will always be lower under a Liberal government”. The big drivers of the Australian economy have generally been outside the control of whatever party was in power. The government of the day can make matters better or worse, but they can’t do a King Kanute.

Which is why the Joe Hockey who made the Age of Entitlements speech nearly 17 months ago needs to be resurrected, or at least writer of that speech needs to be put in charge of the soon-to-be Treasurer. What we’ve been promised during this miserable election campaign is actually no improvement at all, just slightly different priorities – more entitlements for some new car buyers, maternity leave takers and the makers of Cadbury’s chocolates, fewer entitlements for the parents of school children, “clean energy” proponents and small businesses.

But sometimes you have to trust politicians to lie. Hopefully Joe Hockey is still joking, not telling the full story today. Whether that will turn out to be a good or bad thing probably depends on what entitlements matter most to you.

Michael Pascoe is a BusinessDay contributing editor



Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/hockey-closes-campaign-with-a-joke-20130905-2t7ab.html#ixzz2e1RfkrmG

Edited by Joffa: 5/9/2013 10:54:09 PM
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9 Years Ago by Joffa
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and will hand our country over lock and stock to mining companies, billionaires and the insane Christian right wing.


Link?
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9 Years Ago by pv4
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pv4 wrote:
Quote:
and will hand our country over lock and stock to mining companies, billionaires and the insane Christian right wing.


Link?


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Party_of_Australia#History
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9 Years Ago by macktheknife
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Question mark over metro rail tunnel as Tony Abbott slashes funding
Date
September 5, 2013 -

Victoria's number one public transport project has been dealt a body blow, with Opposition Leader Tony Abbott confirming he would cut the entire $75 million federal budget for preliminary work on the metro rail tunnel.

Keen to avoid a road versus rail debate, the Napthine government has insisted the $9 billion link from South Kensington to South Yarra will be built as planned towards the end of the decade, adding huge capacity to Melbourne's rail network.

The project, which would cater for an extra 20,000 commuters an hour, is seen as a crucial precursor to other transport projects, including a proposed rail extension to the airport and new lines to Doncaster and Rowville.

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Federal Labor has promised $3 billion would come from the Commonwealth with the remainder expected to come from the state and the private sector. The $75 million of federal money was included in the May budget, with the bulk of the funding earmarked for the end of the decade.

Transport Minister Terry Mulder has described the metro project as the most crucial piece of public transport infrastructure for the state, saying it would require substantial federal funds to build.

Mr Abbott has previously said the Commonwealth should 'stick to its knitting' and fund road projects not commuter rail.

He has promised $1.5 billion for the east-west link, while Labor pledged $3 billion for the rail project, most of it towards the end of the decade. The rail project has been assessed by Infrastructure Australia as a higher priority than the east-west link project.

The Coalition's list of savings measures confirm the money pledged by the Commonwealth for the project will be cut, with the withdrawal of $25 million in 2015-16 and $50 million in 2016-17.

The $1.5 billion promised by Mr Abbott for the east-west link will be funded directly through cuts to the foreign aid budget.

State Treasurer Michael O'Brien said the Coalition "warmly welcomes" the $1.5 billion commitment to the road link, describing Labor's promise of $3 billion for the metro tunnel as "a mirage".

"The Victorian Coalition government is committed to delivering both the east-west link and the Melbourne Metro," Mr O'Brien said. "We will continue to work with the federal government, regardless of its persuasion, to secure funding for this vital piece of infrastructure when it is ready to proceed."

Greens MP for Melbourne Adam Bandt accused Mr Abbott of taking money from the world's poorest people to "drive a polluting tollway through the middle of Melbourne".

"Tony Abbott must come clean and tell us which people will lose health services and food to fund this polluting tollway," he said.



Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/question-mark-over-metro-rail-tunnel-as-tony-abbott-slashes-funding-20130905-2t7q2.html#ixzz2e1SeYJ3S

Edited by Joffa: 5/9/2013 10:59:04 PM
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9 Years Ago by Joffa
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:lol:

http://lpaweb-static.s3.amazonaws.com/2013%2009%2005%20TABLE.pdf

Cutting funding for rail in favour of more toll roads.

Sounds like someone has mates that work for road companies.

Nicely done LNP.

-PB

https://i.imgur.com/batge7K.jpg

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9 Years Ago by paulbagzFC
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I would love someone to present to me a logical argument to vote Liberal....can it be done?
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9 Years Ago by Joffa
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afromanGT wrote:
Quote:
The policy where they clearly introduce a mandatory (but 'opt-out') internet filter wasn't actually their plan.

Their plan was actually "we encourage ISP's to install their own filters and offer them to parents."

Wow. I'm glad that was clarified.

Release policy. 3 hours later, backflip on it. This is the party people are voting into office on Saturday. Fuck me.


If this is a backflip labor have been doing half pike triple somersaults, this is the party people are throwing out on Saturday.
Edited
9 Years Ago by rusty
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Joffa wrote:
I would love someone to present to me a logical argument to vote Liberal....can it be done?


Stop the boats
Edited
9 Years Ago by rusty
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paulbagzFC wrote:
:lol:

http://lpaweb-static.s3.amazonaws.com/2013%2009%2005%20TABLE.pdf

Cutting funding for rail in favour of more toll roads.

Sounds like someone has mates that work for road companies.

Nicely done LNP.

-PB


Have you even been stuck on the gateway at morning in peakhour? It's a 90 crawl for a journey that would normally take 30 minutes.

Rail is important but road is a fucking priority.
Edited
9 Years Ago by rusty
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Joffa wrote:
I would love someone to present to me a logical argument to vote Liberal....can it be done?


You hate:
Gays
Immigrants
Having your news and cable TV empire made obsolete by the NBN
Having your tax rort enabling novated lease car company made obsolete by tax law changes
You own a mining company.
You are rich.
Edited
9 Years Ago by macktheknife
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Iridium1010 wrote:
grazorblade wrote:
Iridium1010 wrote:
Just out of curiosity does the bible actually say slavery is a natural condition?

lol no.

The old testament had a system where if someone owed you a debt and had no other means to repay it they could be a slave for a maximum of seven years. It is unrecognizable from modern slavery where you hunt and bash people, kidnap them and keep them for life. Also there were no interest on debts so there was no predatory lending and it would have been a big deal to not pay off a debt. Thats not to say that there aren't aspects of this that wouldn't sit uncomfortably with modern society. You were allowed to beat a slave if they didn't work for you. It should also be pointed out that the old testament was a system of punishment toward people who did the wrong thing. You could for example get stoned to death for saying something negative about your parents. The new testament says that the old testament is a tutorial showing that we need grace (and not a system of punishing sinners). When Jesus said "let he who is without sin cast the first stone" he was not only arguing the moral need for mercy but also the practical need. Punishing sinners fairly (where fairly is defined by the old testament law) would cause the human race to go extinct. If they believed in the law then not one of them should have been alive to stone the woman to death. There are also many laws in the old testament about treating your slaves well. I should point out that I have taken a very literal reading of the old testaments talk on slavery. Some Christians say that God was doing "harm minimization" in a world where slavery was everywhere and unavoidable and that the law only needed to be strict enough to show everyone as guilty.

Later in Jeremiah we are told that God was mad with Israel because they were charging interest (which allows for predatory loaning) and keeping slaves indefinitely. The king reversed this custom of keeping slaves indefinitely and Jeremiah said that God is no longer going to destroy israel (despite this being the only good thing the king did that is recorded). The king changed his mind again and to keep a long story short God threatened to lay the smack down on him. This is strong evidence that the old testament is against slavery as it is usually defined. Other mentions of slavery in the old testament is God having compassion on israel for being israel's slaves and freeing them. Also there are the gideonites who were kept as slaves though God never endorsed this and they presumably would have had to free them on the year of jubilee (not sure if they did in practice or not)

As for the new testament there are many verses about slaves being good to their masters however saying this endorses slavery is like saying "love your enemies" is a verse condoning your enemies. In philemon there is a story of an escaped slave and paul writing to his master to basically say "well you may have lost a slave but look on the bright side, you have gained a brother. Take him back as a brother" (slight paraphrase lol). Also in the new testament people are told "if you get a chance for freedom take it"

Finally it should be pointed out the historical effect the Bible has had on the issue of slavery. William wilberforce was motivated by the Bible, the author of amazing grace was a slave trader then eventually quit after converting (and writing the song). The north in the civil war had as their battle song the need to die for slaves like Jesus died for us (whereas the south's battle song had no mention of God "to arms for dixie) and the african american church drew inspiration from the Bible where they saw "a God who sided with the slaves". Finally in the modern world where slavery is at an all time high Christians are very involved in the abolition of slavery. In fact it is barely an exageration to say they are almost alone in this fight in terms of involvement


Thanks for the long reply:), interesting.

No worries mate :)
It was a long reply but there is so much I left out like 1 Tim 1:10 which explicitly forbids the slave trade.
Ironically I'm supporting Rudd and am ok with gay marriage being legalized but his comment was bizarre
Edited
9 Years Ago by grazorblade
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Joffa wrote:
I would love someone to present to me a logical argument to vote Liberal....can it be done?

Logical? No.

Emotional (and therefore irrational)? Yes.

Insert Gertjan Verbeek gifs here

Edited
9 Years Ago by mcjules
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Joffa wrote:
I would love someone to present to me a logical argument to vote Liberal....can it be done?

The medium term effectiveness and future strength of the left is heavily reliant on a Liberal victory tomorrow.
Edited
9 Years Ago by Scoll
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macktheknife wrote:
pv4 wrote:
Quote:
and will hand our country over lock and stock to mining companies, billionaires and the insane Christian right wing.


Link?


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Party_of_Australia#History


I haven't had a proper look through that page, but did a CTRL+F on "chris" and "relig" and couldn't find anything.

Link?
Edited
9 Years Ago by pv4
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Edited
9 Years Ago by batfink
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Quote:
Look, we can't all move to New Zealand – but this election might actually be a positive thing…

--

Dear Fellow Left Wing People,

First up: yes, I know. I feel it too. That desperate confusion, that disappointment, that anger. We're not a small-minded, petty, terrified people… are we? Really? At a time when we have the planet’s most robust economy we're going to ignore the fact and sniffily proclaim that we want more, all the while refusing to help desperate people – in comparatively tiny amounts, by international standards – who are so in love with the idea of Australia/not being persecuted that they risk their lives in the hope of enjoying freedoms that most of us take for granted, and some of us actively resent. Voting? That's a Saturday morning pissed away. Thank you very much, democracy.

But when I think of an Abbott victory, I think the following:

Good.

Not good because he’ll be a great leader – we’re about to get our own George W Bush, a man who can’t open his mouth without providing the world with a new malapropism and who is prepared to destroy his country rather than entertain the possibility that his political and economic philosophy is flawed, not to say straight-up mistaken.

Not good because it will be a positive time for anyone who's not a mining magnate or a media baron. If you’re not wealthy, you’re in for a difficult few years – and if you like things like education, healthcare, environmental protection, workers rights, refugee rights, gender equality or any of that kind of thing, you’re going be getting angrier and angrier.

And that’s what’s good. That’s what we need.

Think about it. Even if Rudd sneaks in on Saturday via some mathematically-improbable fluke, what’s the likely scenario?

We'll get three years of Labor desperately trying to keep the middle ground – no shift on asylum policy, probably some destructive efforts to get an entirely-symbolic budget surplus – with a probably uncooperative Senate and a stronger opposition leader – my money's on Joe Hockey – with the weight of the Murdoch press behind them hammering home the message that everything would have been better if you’d just voted a Coalition government in. Rudd will be an ineffectual leader in an even weaker position than Gillard was in, there'll be another election, a Libslide, and we will welcome another Howard-esque conservative dynasty.

But if Abbott wins?

We already know he can’t open his mouth without saying the exact wrong thing. We already know that he’s terrible on policy, can’t think on his feet and dodges responsibility. At the moment he can largely get away with blaming the government; once he’s Prime Minister, that’s not an option anymore. He will look like what he is: a man of narrow views and narrower knowledge woefully out of his depth.

And look at the Abbott front bench: it's a viper’s nest. They’re not supporting Abbott because they think he’s an inspiring leader, since he’s demonstrated comprehensively that he’s not: they've backed him because the greatest strength they have had against Labor over the last 18 months has been in presenting a united front.

Once they’re in power this bunch of smart, ambitious and shrewd politicians are going to be a lot less forgiving of a leader who's an obvious and embarrassing liability. Hockey isn’t going to fade back into the benches. Neither is Turnbull. Neither is Bishop. Neither is Morrison. Those squabbles have been sublimated for the time being because they had a common enemy: Labor. Once in power, they’ll have a different common enemy: each other.

Abbott will also almost certainly face a hostile Senate, with Greens and most of the sitting independents already indicating an unwillingness to pass many of his tentpole promises. He's already implied that he'll ask for a double dissolution if his agenda is not passed, which means that Labor, the Greens and the minor parties now have a chance to buy themselves another year of campaigning ahead of another election. Don't worry about winning on Saturday, hopefuls: worry about winning after the Libs implode a bit down the track.

If there's a double dissolution we will see an ineffective leader throwing a tantrum, and the Australian public are not going to thank him for calling us all back to another Saturday at the polls before we absolutely have to (and incidentally, it's easier for a Senator to get up in a DD scenario as the quotas are halved. Want to get more independents and small parties clogging up your upper house? Call a double dissolution).

Meanwhile Labor in opposition will be stripped back to the MPs and Senators who’ve kept the faith of their electorates. The embarrassments and the dead wood that have made the last two years so difficult for the party will be gone. And those that are likely to survive – Anthony Albanese, Penny Wong et al – are no fools.

So what do we do for the next three years? We fight. We hold on to every asinine headline in the Murdoch press this week, and we use it as a stick to beat them with when the Coalition fail to deliver. We stop bitching on Twitter and start campaigning for the progressive causes we support (hell, it's an early summer, the weather's lovely for marching). We give Labor an incentive to move back to the left, because there are enough of us to be worth listening to.

But most importantly, as those depressing numbers come in on Saturday night, we remember that there is one great final secret about the Left, and it is this: in the long run, we always win.

Change never comes as quickly as we want it to, and it's often in a frustrating two-steps-forward-one-step-back waltz rather than a decisive sprint, but look at the Australia of 2013 compared with ten years back. Or twenty years back. Or forty. There are always new battles to fight, and specific issues like asylum seeker policy or workplace rights or interventions in remote indigenous communities have seen some humiliating retreats in recent times, but eventually things progress.

The Coalition wasn't at all interested in carbon schemes or marriage equality under Howard; now they know that they have to at least acknowledge these issues, if only to stall movement on them – and stalling only works for so long. These changes are often slow and incremental so we can be forgiven for not noticing at the time, but when you look at the bigger picture it's clear: Australia progresses. Consensus takes time but ultimately we're going to win. We always do.

But in the short term we need to stop being lazy, we need to stop being complacent, and we need to start working together. Hell, I'm more guilty than most in thinking a snarky Facebook status or a punchy tweet has fulfilled my community obligations: I need to lift my game, and so do you. It'll be easier if we all do it together, and then we can totally get a drink afterwards. I'll get the first round in.

And that is why I look at the forthcoming Abbott government as an emetic: it will make us feel incredibly sick, absolutely, but that’s how we vomit the poison out.


http://www.thevine.com.au/life/news/why-an-abbott-election-victory-would-be-good-20130905-264996/

-PB

https://i.imgur.com/batge7K.jpg

Edited
9 Years Ago by paulbagzFC
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