I wonder if there might actually be a smidgen of truth in the conspiracy claims. No doubt that the media and coalition have been out for blood since they got a sniff, the campaigns against Slipper and Thomson have been very well orchestrated. Pyne already got caught out in the flat out with his Ashby contact, I wonder how far the rot in the LNP goes.

Abbott unveils tougher asylum policy

June 9, 2012 - 1:49PM


Asylum seekers who are believed to have destroyed their documents before arriving in Australia will have a presumption against refugee status under a coalition government, Opposition leader Tony Abbott says.

As part of three policy "enhancements", which the opposition leader said would immediately be put in place under a coalition government, Mr Abbott said there would be a "strong presumption that illegal boat people who have destroyed their documents not be given refugee status".

Mr Abbott said his government would also ensure that his Immigration Minister "exercise the right" to appeal against affirmative decisions.

"This right has never been exercised under this government," he told reporters on Saturday.

This would ensure that "yeses are checked, not just noes", opposition spokesman for immigration Scott Morrison said.

"Under our current system noes are checked under an appeal process by applicants but yeses never get checked."

Under the third proposal put forward by Mr Abbott, an integrity commissioner would report to the minister every six months on what is happening to the processing success rates.

"What is happening now is that 90 per cent of people who arrive illegally via boat are given successful outcomes."

Mr Abbott said other countries had "heavier rates of rejection" and he wanted to know why this was the case.

The "enhancements" would be on top of the party's current immigration policy, which includes the re-establishment of offshore processing at Nauru, the re-introduction of temporary protection visas and the option of turning boats around.

It is not the first time the opposition has flagged a crackdown on asylum seekers entering Australia without proper documentation.

In April 2010, Mr Morrison said having correct documentation should be a "key requirement" for asylum seekers.

AAP


Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/abbott-unveils-tougher-asylum-policy-20120609-202fw.html#ixzz1xHHwn3sI

Julia Gillard's swipe at Kevin Rudd: Being leader isn't always about being the smartest

by: SAMANTHA MAIDEN From: The Sunday Telegraph June 10, 2012

JULIA Gillard has taken a veiled swipe at her predecessor Kevin Rudd, warning leadership was not about always being "the smartest person in the room".

The Prime Minister rejected suggestions she was governing differently after the leadership challenge in February and Mr Rudd's exile to the backbench, revealing the pair have briefly chatted.

"We see each other in a corridor, we say hello," she said.

Asked what issues she discussed with the former PM she replied, "The same sort of thing I talk to every other backbencher about."

But the Prime Minister said the way she ran cabinet was different to the first term of the Rudd government.

"I have never wanted to foster the culture that says you know once the leader has spoken then everyone must defer, she said.

"I don't think you prove leadership by setting out each and every moment to kind of prove you are the smartest person in the room."

Ms Gillard also predicted the carbon tax will never be repealed even if Tony Abbott becomes prime minister.

Asked if she would "never, ever" move to relieve community concern by reducing the $23 per tonne carbon price or moving to an emissions trading scheme faster she said: "Oh, it's done. The legislation is the legislation and it's done.

"And I actually think if you try to imagine six months in to carbon pricing, what will people be experiencing and thinking then? They'll have their tax cuts, so their pay packet will be different ... many working women won't be paying tax at all any more and many (will be) seeing tax cuts like $500."

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/julia-gillards-swipe-at-kevin-rudd-being-leader-isnt-always-about-being-the-smartest/story-e6freuy9-1226389989799

Economists fail the reality test, again

June 11, 2012

Opinion

The nation's economists, commentators and business people got caught with their pants down last week. They'd convinced themselves the economy was weak, but the Bureau of Statistics produced figures showing it was remarkably strong.

It's not the first time they've failed such a reality test. They prefer not to think about such embarrassing, humbling occurrences, but it's important to ask ourselves why we got it so wrong.

The bureau told us real gross domestic product grew by 1.3 per cent in the March quarter and by 4.3 per cent over the year to March. Then it produced labour force figures for May, showing employment has been growing at the rate of 25,000 a month this year, with much of that growth in NSW and Victoria.

So why is there such a yawning gap between what we thought was happening in the economy and what statistics say is happening?

Well, one possibility is the figures are wrong. That's likely to be true - to some extent. They're highly volatile from quarter to quarter and month to month, and much of that volatility is likely to be statistical ''noise'' rather than ''signal''.

But the financial markets, economists and media knowingly add to the noise by insisting on using the seasonally adjusted figures rather than the trend (smoothed seasonally adjusted) figures as the bureau urges them to. Truth is, both markets and media have a vested interest in volatility for its own sake - it makes for better bets and better stories.

However, even if the latest figures are likely to be revised down, their ''back story'' still contradicts the conventional wisdom. Cut March quarter growth back to the 0.6 per cent economists were forecasting and you're still left with above-trend annual growth of 3.6 per cent.

Consumer spending may not have grown by as much as 1.6 per cent in the March quarter, but - and notwithstanding all the retailers' complaints - it's been growing at above-trend rates for a year.

Another argument embarrassed economists are making is that the March quarter figures are ''backward looking''. All the news since March has been bad. They always use that excuse. But there's nothing out of date about job figures for May, and they, too, tell a story of strengthening growth.

If you accept, as you should, the figures are roughly right - especially viewed over a run of months or quarters - you have to ask how our perceptions of the economy have got so far astray from statistical reality.

It's less surprising business people's perceptions are off the mark. They're not students of economic theory or statistical indicators; their judgments are unashamedly subjective, based on direct experience and the anecdotes they hear from other business people, plus an overlay of what the media tell them.

More surprising is the evidence economists' judgments and forecasts aren't as rigorously objective and indicator-based as they like to imagine. They're affected by the mood of the business people they associate with and aren't immune to the distorted picture of reality spread by the media (because they highlight events that are interesting - and, hence, predominantly bad - rather than representative).

Like the punters, business people probably overestimate the macro-economic significance of falls in the sharemarket - particularly when our sharemarket is taking its lead from overseas markets reacting to economic news in the US and Europe that doesn't have much direct bearing on our economy.

Similarly, all the bad news from America and, particularly, Europe we're hearing from the media night after night can't help infecting our views about our economy. We're getting more economic news from China these days but we hear about the threats rather than the opportunities.

The familiar refrain about the alleged two-speed economy is tailor-made for the media but, as last week's figures make clear, an exaggeration of the truth. Consumer spending is reasonably strong in the non-mining states, as is employment growth this year.

In the absence of anything better, economists and the media persist in setting too much weight on the bureau's quarterly figures for state final demand, unaware they give an exaggerated picture of the differences in gross state product between the mining and non-mining states (because Western Australia and Queensland use much of their income to buy goods and services from NSW and Victoria).

The risk is the more we repeat the two-speed story to ourselves the more it becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy. This may be part of the explanation for the weakness in non-mining business investment spending, but as yet it doesn't seem to have affected consumer spending.

The media's highlighting of announced job lay-offs is a classic example of the way their inevitably selective reporting of job movements leaves the public, business people and maybe even economists with a falsely negative impression of the state of the labour market.

A recent list of 25 lay-off announcements showed total job losses of 17,000. When people wonder how the bureau's employment figures could be right when we know so many jobs are being lost, they're showing their ignorance of how selective media reporting is and how big the labour market is.

In a workforce of 11.5 million people, job losses of 17,000 are peanuts (though not, of course, to the individuals involved). Far more than 17,000 workers leave their jobs every month and far more take up jobs every month. The media tell us about just some of the job losses and about virtually none of the job gains.

The unvarnished truth - which none of us can admit, even to ourselves - is we think we know what's happening in the economy, but we don't. We're too fallible, and it's too big and complicated.

Twitter: @1Ross Gittins


Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/economists-fail-the-reality-test-again-20120610-204bq.html#ixzz1xRT9PEZV

Branch stacking back as Labor seeks new blood

June 23, 2012

RULES designed to prevent branch stacking are set to be dumped by NSW Labor as part of the push to sign up new members to the party.

But a sudden influx of members in the state seat of Auburn likely to topple the sitting MP, Barbara Perry have intensified concerns about the decision, due to be announced at next month's annual party conference.

The Herald has learnt that the party's rules committee will recommend changes to the so-called ''trip wire'' provision.

The provision states that if five or more members apply to join an existing branch simultaneously, or more than 50 apply during the formation of a new branch, their details must be sent to the general-secretary within seven days.

The new rule will reverse the onus of proof by saying that the applications are legitimate unless a protest is made.

Also, the committee will recommend removing the requirement that new members who sign up at a concessional rate must prove they are entitled to the lower rate.

The requirement was only introduced at the NSW Labor conference last year in response to fears the lack of identification required made it cheaper to branch stack. The majority of the NSW party's members hold concessional memberships.

The changes are designed to remove what is seen as an disincentive for branches to recruit members.

The Labor party has been on a drive to lift its membership nationally. The Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, has announced a recruitment target of 8000 new members for 2012.

However, critics are pointing to Auburn, where 106 applications were received to join the Labor party in the past month. Its eight branches have about 350 members.

The applications, which are feared to be part of a campaign to topple Ms Perry as Labor's candidate at the next election, were referred to Labor's membership subcommittee for investigation early this month.

It is understood they are likely to be approved because they were made under the terms of a recruitment drive by the NSW Labor general-secretary, Sam Dastyari, that led to new memberships being offered for $5.

If so, they will consolidate control of the Auburn branches by the deputy mayor of Auburn, Hicham Zraika. This leaves Ms Perry the choice of retaliating with her own recruitment drive or face losing preselection for the 2015 election.

At last year's state election, which swept the O'Farrell government to power, Ms Perry suffered a swing against her of more than 20 per cent, leaving her on a margin of 8.5 per cent.

Ms Perry, who is also the opposition community services spokeswoman, declined to comment.

Mr Zraika denied being behind the recruitment of the new members, which he said were ''not necessarily'' his supporters. ''I don't know if I've got the numbers or not,'' he said.

Mr Zraika said running for preselection against Ms Perry was ''an option I would consider, but it's way too early for that''.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/branch-stacking-back-as-labor-seeks-new-blood-20120622-20tho.html#ixzz1yaP03vds

Two years of struggle and little is tipped to change June 23, 2012


WHEN she replaced Kevin Rudd - two years ago tomorrow - Julia Gillard immediately nominated border control as one of the problems she pledged to tackle.

Thursday's drowning tragedy is a wrenching reminder of her failure to fulfil that pledge. While she can argue immovable obstacles have stood in her way - most dramatically, the High Court's unexpected dismissal of the so-called Malaysia solution, and then Tony Abbott's unwillingness to cut a deal on offshore processing - her inability to deliver is symptomatic of the wider difficulties that have beset her leadership.

If it was amazing that Rudd was knifed by his party less than three years into his prime ministership, it is remarkable that two years into hers, Gillard's hold on her job is a matter of constant speculation. Almost all of her tenure has been trouble and struggle and there is little prospect of respite ahead.

below She returns tomorrow from the G20 and the Rio environment conference for Parliament's final week before the winter break. It will see another Newspoll, likely to show Labor's primary vote still parlous.

Caucus sources do not expect any move against her next week. Her critics are again pushing forward their D-Day, to some point after the party sees how the carbon price goes. The truth seems to be that switching back to Rudd - the only viable alternative - still remains too hard to organise. The impasse continues. It may never be broken - or something could come to a head at some point, as caucus members stare at the prospect of a massive wipeout.

After Parliament gets up, we will be into a fortnight's ''faux'' campaign, with Abbott and Gillard racing around the country talking carbon. Who is seen to win the mini-campaign will set the scene for the next phase of the political battle.

The government's intention is then to drop off talking about carbon, and switch the emphasis to other items on its agenda. These include disability insurance, aged care reform and promoting the better skilling of the workforce.

Abbott will want to keep front and centre the negatives of the carbon price but knows that pressure will increasingly fall on him to spell out more of what he will do and, given the difficulty of repealing the carbon and mining taxes, how he will do it.


Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/national/two-years-of-struggle-and-little-is-tipped-to-change-20120622-20tua.html#ixzz1ybvWmR9K

Kevin Rudd buffs up for battle as supporters claim Prime Minister Julia Gillard is losing support

by: Samantha Maiden From: The Sunday Telegraph June 24, 2012

KEVIN Rudd has been spotted in the parliamentary gym pumping iron in a sign Gillard supporters are interpreting as preparation for fresh leadership moves.

As the ALP caucus marks the second anniversary of Mr Rudd's knifing as PM today, his supporters claim Ms Gillard has lost the support of another 15 MPs.

Since the 71-31 result in the February leadership contest, both the NSW Right and the Victorian Right have split, with further votes leaking to Mr Rudd.

A tally of 46 votes in the caucus would lift Mr Rudd to within striking distance, but supporters maintain an August strike is the more likely outcome for a challenger they maintain is still "reluctant".

Senior powerbrokers still predict it would take a move by the Bill Shorten faction or Left faction leaders Anthony Albanese, John Faulkner or Greg Combet to give Ms Gillard the tap for anything to move.

Rudd supporter Robert McClelland, who was dumped from cabinet after the last challenge, shocked colleagues this week by making a thinly veiled reference to a case involving a former partner of Ms Gillard, an AWU official Bruce Wilson, who was accused in union rorting, telling parliament that "the Prime Minister is quite familiar with this matter".

But Rudd supporters said he was on a "frolic" of his own over re-heating the affair that has prompted angry denials from Ms Gillard in the past that she had any idea what Mr Wilson was up to.

The Sunday Telegraph caught up with Mr Rudd as he visited a homeless shelter on Friday, after he spent the night sleeping rough to raise money for the CEO sleep-out.

But he refused to comment on the anniversary, which he proposed to mark last year with a party dubbed an "Assassination Day" celebration -- he later cancelled the knees-up for former staff after media reports.

In some signature "dad joke" postings on Twitter, the former PM boasted that he "slept with 150 CEOs last night. Exhausting... But raised a lot of money for Vinnies."

Ms Gillard brushed away leadership questions in Rio, where she is attending the G20 summit, refusing to even answer the question on whether she was losing support.

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/kevin-buffs-up-for-battle/story-e6freuy9-1226406307135

I find it very convenient that the media always say Rudd wants to challenge .

Belt-tightening does not reach as far as the budget for mints

June 24, 2012

TED Baillieu may be sacking thousands of Victorian public servants in the name of budget restraint, but the government is sparing no expense to wine and dine guests in style.

The Department of Treasury and Finance has put out a tender for a corporate hospitality contract which specifies everything from "waiting and bar services" to "mints at least 15 minutes prior" for special events hosted at government conference rooms.

As well, documents reveal the government will spend almost $1 million on a catering contract for the Premier's private office, which includes fine dining, hot buffets and cocktail platters for cabinet MPs.

"They've got money for silks and silver service, but not for public services," said Community and Public Sector Union boss Karen Batt.

Details of the public service cuts — 4200 over the next two years — began to emerge on Friday evening. Some departments would lose almost 15 per cent of their staff. The Department of Human Services will take the biggest hit, losing 500 full-time staff. The Justice Department is expected to shed 480 staff and VicRoads 450.

The government will go to Fair Work Australia this week to block the release of more information. It won't say exactly which "back-office" jobs will be targeted at each department, which roles are exempt, and which programs will lapse as a result.

Treasurer Kim Wells said the cuts were necessary to put the budget on a sustainable footing. He also suggested the cuts were relatively modest compared with cuts in Queensland, which has announced about 20,000 public-sector job losses, and New South Wales, which is shedding 10,000.

"This isn't an easy decision, but it is the right decision, and it's all about the Baillieu government living within its means," Mr Wells said.

But the Treasurer was forced to defend the late timing of the announcement, which many staff did not learn about until they read it on Twitter or heard via the media.

ftomazin@theage.com.au


Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/belttightening-does-not-reach-as-far-as-the-budget-for-mints-20120623-20vis.html#ixzz1ygKaX6pV

Labor MPs sticking by Prime Minister Julia Gillard despite facing imminent defeat

by: Alison McMeekin
From: The Daily Telegraph June 25, 2012

LABOR MPs are sticking by Prime Minister Julia Gillard, in the face of another dire poll showing her government would face defeat if an election were held now.

The latest Newspoll, published in The Australian today, shows Labor is more unpopular now than it was two years ago when the party dumped then leader Kevin Rudd.

According to the poll Labor’s primary vote is stagnant at 30 per cent while the coalition’s rose slightly to 46 per cent. The Greens’ primary vote dropped marginally to 12 per cent.

On a two party preferred basis the coalition leads Labor, 55 per cent to 45 per cent, a result that would sweep Labor from government.

According to a Newspoll on the weekend before Labor dumped Mr Rudd as PM, Labor led the coalition 52 per cent to 48 per cent on a two-party preferred basis.

Parliamentary Secretary Mark Dreyfus said this morning he didn’t believe his colleagues were shifting their support from Ms Gillard to Mr Rudd.

“I don’t believe any of that,” he said.

“I think that what we’ve got here is a government which I’m proud to be part of that’s implementing major reforms and when you are implementing major reforms there is a lot of noise.”

One of the major reforms Mr Dreyfus was referring to was the carbon tax, which will take effect in six days.

Mr Dreyfus said Opposition Leader Tony Abbott had “staked his career” on claims he had made about the tax, and predicted that following the introduction of the tax, “what little credibility Tony Abbott has left will be in complete tatters”.

“And his career is about to come crashing down because Australians are going to see that the carbon price is the right thing to do,” Mr Dreyfus said.

Labor backbencher Andrew Leigh said he was also unaware any of his colleagues had switched their allegiance to Mr Rudd.

He also said he did not believe Mr Rudd was positioning himself for a leadership challenge.

Asked about the latest Newspoll, senior Labor frontbencher Craig Emerson conceded big reforms – like applying a price to carbon – was “not a popular reform”.

“Most reforms are not popular,” Dr Emerson told ABC Radio.

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/labor-mps-sticking-by-prime-minister-julia-gillard-despite-facing-imminent-defeat/story-e6freuy9-1226407408432

Abbott cuts Palmer down to size

June 26, 2012 - 10:20AM

TONY Abbott has dismissed the billionaire and major donor Clive Palmer as just another rank-and-file member of the Liberal Party with no more say in party affairs than anybody else.

Mr Abbott and Mr Palmer are at daggers drawn and had a stand up argument in a Melbourne hotel last week over a rule change Mr Palmer wants to effect at this weekend's Liberal Party federal council in Melbourne.

Mr Palmer believes lobbyists should not hold executive positions in the party. This would disqualify Alexander Downer and Queensland powerbroker Santo Santoro serving as party vice- presidents.

Mr Abbott said today that everyone was entitled to serve in elected positions regardless of their day jobs, so long as they were qualified.

Mr Palmer, who bankrolls the Liberal National Party in Queensland, is seeking preselection to challenge Wayne Swan in his seat of Lilley.

Mr Abbott is not keen on Mr Palmer's bid for Lilley either.

Today Mr Abbott said Mr Palmer was "just an ordinary rank and file member" of the party and that he had no more and no less influence than any other member.

When asked to discuss his meeting with Mr Palmer, Mr Abbott said: "I'm going to politely decline that request".

"If there was any heat, it certainly wasn't coming from me," Mr Abbott added.

Mr Palmer, who is a Queensland delegate at this weekend's council, is due to hold a press conference in Brisbane this afternoon.

His motion proposed no lobbyist would be able to raise money for the party; no office bearer could be a lobbyist, and no journalist or political commentator could be an office bearer.

He will also address the annual ''Black Hand'' dinner held by the Liberal moderates.


Read more: http://www.watoday.com.au/opinion/political-news/abbott--cuts-palmer-down-to-size-20120626-20zmn.html#ixzz1yrZspce5

Interest rates tipped to stay on hold when Reserve Bank meets on Tuesday

by: AAP From: AAP June 29, 2012 4:40PM

AUSTRALIA'S central bank cut interest rates in May and June, but is not expected to make it three in a row when its board meets on Tuesday.

Fears about weak growth in the local economy and turmoil on European markets prompted the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to drop the cash rate by half a percentage point at its May meeting, followed by a quarter point cut in June.

All 21 economists surveyed by AAP said they did not expect the RBA to cut again on July 3.

Economists' expectations were centred on just one more cut this year, bringing the cash rate to 3.25 per cent.

AMP chief economist Shane Oliver said that a spate of strong data since the previous board meeting on June 5 may have changed the central bank's outlook on the domestic economy.

"I tend to think that because they cut at two meetings in a row, and because the GDP (gross domestic product) and April employment figures surprised on the upside.

"Right now they'd probably be inclined to sit back and wait and see," he said.
GDP in the March quarter was up 1.3 per cent from the December quarter for a rise of 4.3 per cent in the 12 months to March.

Employment figures were impressive also - with the number of people with jobs rising by 38,900 between April and May.

Although developments in Europe would remain a concern, the previous rate cuts could be seen as a buffer against any risk, Dr Oliver said.

"To get them (the RBA) to cut again at this meeting would require far more uncertainty regarding the global backdrop - a complete breakdown in Europe - but we haven't seen that yet," he said.

Commsec chief economist Craig James said that while June's rate cut was influenced by Europe, the RBA would be looking for information on domestic growth before moving again.

"If the inflation figures are low at the end of July, as we expect, that will give the Reserve Bank some added confidence about cutting rates again, realising that inflation is under control and there's good reason to try and accelerate growth here in Australia," he said.

Consumer uncertainty about changes brought in by the mining and carbon taxes could also encourage cuts later this year, Mr James said.

Deutsche Bank economist Adam Boyton said that despite good GDP and jobs numbers, the Australian economy could still do with a nudge.

"Consumer confidence is lower now than when the RBA started to move at the end of last year," he said.

"In an environment where the terms of trade are declining, real GDP growth even of this sort isn't going to be enough to stop the unemployment rate from drifting up."
.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/interest-rates-tipped-to-stay-on-hold-when-reserve-bank-meets-on-tuesday/story-fn7j19iv-1226412499734

Independents fall out at asylum 'stunt'

By Alison McMeekin Political Reporter From: The Daily Telegraph June 29, 2012 12:42PM

NSW MPs Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor have savaged their federal independent MP Andrew Wilkie for pulling a "stunt" in federal parliament in the dead of night.
At 3:30am in the House of Representatives, Mr Wilkie moved a motion to try and re-start debate on asylum seeker policy.

The Tasmanian MP wanted to debate the federal opposition’s amendment to the offshore processing legislation – an amendment no one but the opposition has seen.

Mr Oakeshott - who was not in the chamber at the time - said he had no notice Mr Wilkie would introduce such a motion.

“We can either deal with this in good faith and allow people to have a good look at what’s been put before the House, or we’re pulling stunts on uni-cycles, juggling balls,” Mr Oakeshott said this morning.

“My judgement - that’s a stunt. You can not honestly expect me to know there’s going to be something pulled at 3:30am on a bill I have not seen.”

Mr Wilkie’s motion failed because he needed a majority of 76 votes to support it.

But that was never going to happen, since a number of MPs had already left Canberra - including some Liberal MPs who had flown to Melbourne for the party’s federal council.

The Daily Telegraph understands neither the government nor the opposition had any clue Mr Wilkie was to introduce such a motion.

Mr Windsor said Mr Wilkie was aware there wouldn’t be enough numbers in the House at 3:30am to pass such a motion, and Mr Windsor said he warned the Tasmanian MP earlier in the day that such a motion “will be seen as a stunt”.

“With all due respect to Andrew, I think he’s been conned into a stunt,” Mr Windsor said.

“Obviously Andrew took advantage of the break in the parliament to introduce this thing that he knew very well wasn’t going to go anywhere.”

Mr Oakeshott and Mr Windsor also called for scrutiny of the Senate, after the upper house yesterday rejected the asylum seeker bill which had passed the House of Representatives on Wednesday.

“The Senate is demonstrating it’s no longer a state’s house, it’s a political party’s house,” Mr Oakeshott said.

“I think that’s the shared frustration today, about who’s representative and who’s not.”

Immigration Minister Chris Bowen said he had hoped to be spending this morning on the phone to Malaysia and Nauru “and putting in place a very comprehensive offshore processing regime”.

“That’s what I was hoping to be doing,” he said.

As the winter recess officially began today, the bickering over asylum seeker policy - or lack thereof - continued with Tony Abbott accusing Julia Gillard of 'outsourcing' her job.

After the federal opposition and the Greens yesterday combined to reject a bill that would have revived the Government's scuttled Malaysia people-swap deal, the PM announced former defence chief Angus Houston would head up an expert group to examine asylum seeker policy.

The Opposition Leader said the committee was “not a solution”, and that Ms Gillard was “outsourcing the prime ministership”.

"She failed because she wanted a different position, one that the parliament clearly was never going to support," Mr Abbott told Channel Nine this morning.

Parliament rose for the six-and-a-half week winter break shortly after 4am today, following a marathon sitting of the Senate to pass government legislation extending the Northern Territory intervention

Lower house MPs had to stick around to tick off the Senate’s amendments.

But in one last ditch attempt to re-start parliamentary debate on asylum seekers, Tasmanian independent Andrew Wilkie moved a motion shortly after 3:30am to have an opposition amendment brought on for debate.

Mr Wilkie wanted to debate the Opposition’s Migration Legislation Amendment (Offshore Processing, Protection and Other Measures) Bill 2012 – an amendment no one but the opposition has seen.

Mr Wilkie said he did it because he believes parliament’s job “is to solve the impasse over asylum seekers”.

"I am appalled that this House is set to go into recess tonight for six weeks, even though the people smugglers are busy filling their manifests with the names of so many desperate souls," Mr Wilkie told the House of Representatives at 3:45am.

"I am appalled that the House is set to go into recess tonight for six weeks, even though numerous boats are being readied right now in Indonesia, and probably elsewhere, for the perilous journey to Australia."

Mr Wilkie’s motion failed because he needed a majority of 76 votes to support it.

But that was never going to happen, since a number of MPs had already left Canberra – including some Liberal MPs who had flown to Melbourne for the party’s federal council.

The government and the opposition had arranged pairs for any votes taken in the House, and The Daily Telegraph understands neither major party had any clue Mr Wilkie was to introduce such a motion.

Meanwhile the Navy intercepted another boatload of asylum seekers last night.

The vessel, which was carrying 44 people, was intercepted west-south-west of Christmas Island.


http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/mps-on-hols-asylum-bickering-continues/story-e6freuy9-1226411953447

Labor in need of shelter as bad weather closes in

June 30, 2012

Julia Gillard was playing the audience perfectly at the press gallery's midwinter ball on Wednesday night, commiserating with journalists at both News Ltd and Fairfax as the media industry goes through times of tumultuous change.

''It must be horrible to wake up every morning wondering if you will still have your job,'' she sympathised, pausing for near-perfect comic timing. ''I can't imagine how that must feel.''

The room laughed along with her self-deprecating humour but almost everyone was on edge. And it wasn't just the pathetic failure of policy-making on asylum processing that day, even as survivors from the latest maritime disaster were being plucked from the sea.

After almost two years of political pressure mounting like the build-up to the monsoon, after almost two years of a constant sense of crisis, we seem to be finally heading into a time when something is going to give, one way or another.

The Gillard government has convinced itself the introduction of the carbon tax will be a ''game changer''. A game changer in a good way, that is.

The Prime Minister and 25 members of her ministry will fan out across the country from tomorrow to spruik their story about the mild household impact and the great environmental necessity of the carbon tax in every marginal seat. Julia Gillard will start tomorrow in Melbourne and two of her ministers are heading to Whyalla to check whether it has, in fact, been wiped off the map. They will ridicule the ''scare campaign'' of Tony Abbott, who they have dubbed ''chicken little''.

The tax is still spectacularly unpopular (54 per cent of voters oppose it, according to the latest Essential poll) but households also seem to be overestimating its impact on their budgets, especially after compensation (70 per cent of low-income earners who will be fully compensated think they will be worse off, according to The Climate Institute). So some people could end up being pleasantly surprised. The Coalition, for example, has distributed flyers to help businesses including bakeries explain price rises to their customers. But the impact of the tax will be just 2¢ on the price of a loaf of bread.

And as the tax starts, Tony Abbott is under pressure on a number of fronts, including his stance over asylum seeker laws and a brawl over allegations of conflict of interest among party office holders to be played out at this weekend's Liberal Party conference.

But so far the government has thrown $20 billion at appeasing voter anxiety about the tax - $5 billion in various payments in the May budget on top of the $15 billion in tax cuts and benefits already offered as specific compensation - apparently without moving a single vote.

Winter power bills will also rise for quite separate reasons for which the carbon price will be blamed; manufacturing industries are under immediate financial pressure for reasons quite separate to the long-term impact of the carbon price, for which the carbon price will nevertheless be blamed; and the Coalition has done a good job of convincing people they can reach the same emissions reduction target with no economic pain.

If all of this means Julia Gillard can't use the introduction of the carbon tax to turn things around, the game is likely to change for her in an entirely different way.

Kevin Rudd does not yet have the numbers to challenge but his supporters are confident he will get them if Labor's primary vote has not risen from about 30 per cent to the high 30s by the time Parliament resumes in mid-August. (Gillard's supporters say it is unreasonable to expect a turnaround in the polls until year's end.)

There is a growing consensus, even among Labor MPs who have been strong Gillard supporters, that if the polls remain unchanged, they cannot sit passively while facing an existential crisis.

This is not just the obvious looming wipe-out in the House of Representatives and the possibility of losing control of the Senate as well, leaving the coast clear for an incoming Coalition government to undo anything the Rudd-Gillard years might have achieved.

Senior Labor sources are now also contemplating the ways in which a Coalition landslide could have dire, long-term and possibly fatal consequences for the already-embattled Labor Party organisation.

The party's latest returns to the electoral commission show that after the 2010 election it was almost $15 million in debt. Corporate donations are evaporating. And on the latest poll figures Labor would be receiving about one million fewer votes, across the lower house and the Senate, than it did at the last election, which would slice about $2.5 million from the public funding on which the party is increasingly reliant.

In NSW the Liberal government has banned political donations from organisations, which includes unions, and in Queensland the Newman government is planning to force members of organisations to vote before an organisation - such as, say, a union - can make a donation to a political party. You can bet an Abbott government would also move to try to deny Labor its lucrative flow of union funds.

And then Labor would be left as a party with no members and no money, and possibly a very large debt, as the foundation from which to try to rebuild itself from electoral annihilation.

As Parliament rose for the winter break, Tony Abbott worked his anti-carbon tax crusade to a climax. And this week's dismal, draining, parliamentary deadlock over asylum processing laws was also surely the low point of the two year down-and-dirty fight since the inconclusive 2010 election.

The paralysis was the ultimate manifestation of the stand-off since the formation of the minority government, after which the Coalition has refused to accept its legitimacy or integrity and has fought every measure to the bitter end.

There is a reason they call the way people behave during the build-up to the wet season ''going troppo''.

We may soon see what happens when this political storm finally breaks.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/labor-in-need-of-shelter-as-bad-weather-closes-in-20120629-217si.html#ixzz1zFD1e7VM

[
'I have an ingrained instinct to serve': Abbott

June 30, 2012 - 1:35PM

Tony Abbott has claimed some of the economic mantle of the Howard government and asked the Australian people to take him on the record of his lifetime and his "ingrained' instinct to serve.

Mr Abbott told the Liberal Party that he did not enter politics to become prime minister but to serve the country.

In a speech to the Liberal federal council that was pitched to positives rather than negatives, the Opposition Leader said he had been part of a good government that inherited a $10 billion budget black hole and turned it into surpluses.

"Those surpluses weren't just John Howard's and Peter Costello's," he said.

"They were Abbott surpluses and Hockey surpluses and Bishop surpluses and Turnbull surpluses and Robb surpluses - because we were all senior members of the team that delivered them and have the same commitment to prudent, orthodox administration that's always been a hallmark of Liberal and National Party government."

Mr Abbott said he was not asking the Australian people to take him on trust "but on the record of a lifetime and an instinct to serve ingrained long before I became Opposition Leader".

He pointed to his service as a student president, trainee priest, Rhodes scholar, surf lifesaver, and volunteer firefighter as well as a member of Parliament and a minister in a government.

"I understand that the prime ministership should not be just a realisation of personal ambition or the vindication of years of plotting but the most effective way to bring about a better Australia," he said.

Mr Abbott said that through all the partisan contention of the past two years over the carbon tax, border protection, the speakership and the Health Services Union debacle, "the Coalition's objective has been to promote more effective policy and greater integrity in public life".

He said that at a low ebb in his prime ministership, John Howard declared that politics was a hard and unforgiving business – but that it was also the highest and noblest form of public service.

"I have always tried to be ambitious for the higher things, not for the higher office, and did not enter politics to become prime minister but to serve my country," he said.

"Every member of my team understands that politics is a calling, not a job."

Mr Abbott said that a Coalition government would commit $4 billion to tackle the backlog of road construction in Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane, saying inadequate road infrastructure and traffic congestion were having a negative impact on the productivity of Australia's major cities.

There would be $1.5 billion for the East-West Link in Melbourne, $1.5 billion for the M4 East in Sydney and $1 billion for road upgrading in Brisbane.

Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey said a Coalition government would fix the budget. He acknowledged that reducing public expenditure would be tough but said "the age of entitlement has come to an end".

Mr Hockey described the Labor government as "merely an eclipse".

"The Rudd-Gillard government has merely covered the sun for a short time. We are going to bring the sun back," he said.

Deputy Opposition Leader Julie Bishop described Mr Abbott as a "deeply principled person who can be trusted".

Earlier in the day, Scott Morrison said the "crisis" on Australia's borders "grows by the hour, grows by the minute," following the arrival of another asylum seeker boat.

The opposition immigration spokesman told the council that the latest 67 arrivals meant that the June intake was the largest on record for any single month.

The council passed a resolution condemning Prime Minister Julia Gillard's policy on onshore processing, saying it had resulted in an increase in illegal immigrants, and urged stronger border protection policy.

The council also passed a resolution to repeal the carbon tax as soon as the Coalition wins office.

Mr Morrison said the Gillard government was even softer on border protection than Kevin Rudd's government had been, and Ms Gillard should put the issue to the Australian people.

In a passionate speech, former Howard government foreign affairs minister Alexander Downer said he could claim to be the "father" of the Pacific solution.

He said the policy the Howard government had set up, which was strongly criticised by people on the left, had saved hundreds of lives.

Mr Downer also said Opposition Leader Tony Abbott was right in saying that boats could be turned back.

"You can make Indonesia part of this solution," he said, claiming that Indonesia was currently getting away with things.

"They were part of the solution, they are not now."

The council also unanimously agreed to repeal the Labor government's carbon tax once the Coalition gained power.

Victorian Liberal members said the tax would have significant implications in Victoria.

The state's health minister, David Davis, said it would hurt patients and public health, and the sector would not receive any compensation.

Billionaire Clive Palmer said the tax would force thousands of people onto Centrelink benefits.

The motion was passed unanimously.

With AAP


Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/i-have-an-ingrained-instinct-to-serve-abbott-20120630-2192k.html#ixzz1zFXtSSQe

July 1st changes are set to hit Australians in the wallet

by: Rosie Squires From: The Sunday Telegraph July 01, 2012 12:00AM

SMALL businesses are taking a wait-and-see approach to the carbon tax before jacking up prices but fear hikes are inevitable.

The controversial tax, which comes into effect today, is expected to hurt retailers who rely heavily on electricity, refrigeration, transportation and garbage disposal with carbon polluters to pay $23 a tonne.

The introduction of the tax coincides with an 18 per cent price rise in electricity and while most store owners say the impacts of the carbon tax are unclear, others will raise costs today to stay afloat.

"If you use a lot of power or have a lot of fridges you will be impacted," Council of Small Business Australia spokesman Peter Strong said. "If your goods are transported you will be impacted."

Retailers should wait a few months before increasing prices for consumers, he said.

"This is a hard time for retailers because a lot of them don't know how much it will effect them," Mr Strong said.

"We don't know either. I think it will take 12 months before we see the true impact of the carbon tax."

The Town & Country Hotel in St Peters will today raise rents for the 11 rooms above the bar.

"We will put rent up about 10-20 per cent for the rooms because the electricity will be going up. The residents don't pay for their own electricity," owner Brandon Lynch said.

"We are preparing to pay more under the tax because of all the power costs. We use refrigeration in the bar, a cool room, airconditioning -- that uses a lot of power and the bill will go up."

Mr Lynch said the price of schooners would stay the same, unless providers raise prices.

"The suppliers will face increased transport costs so if they put the price up we will have to go up to keep our profit margin," he said.

It was a similar story for mixed business owner Kim Souied in Alexandria.

Ms Souied said her fridges, lights, freezers and cool room already cost $950 a month.

"The sale price will have to go up for anything stored in a fridge or freezer," she said.

"I will try to keep the increases small for my customers but we need to be realistic. I can't keep the bill down. I can't turn lights off in a business. I can't turn a freezer off overnight," she said.

Of the businesses spoken to by The Sunday Telegraph, most will monitor costs in the coming weeks.

Store manager Brian Grabham of Total Tools in Parramatta said higher electricity costs were a greater concern than the carbon tax. "We have no plans to increase prices, but it depends on what our suppliers do," he said.

North Granville Newsagency owner Gerald Kwok said he might increase prices for refrigerated items.

"The carbon tax is no good for small business," he said.

Goran's Butchery owner Dusanka Petrovic in Liverpool said she feared losing customers to supermarket chains if she raised prices.

In Newtown, Wayne Phan of The Flower Room said he would see what their suppliers did before changing prices.

"We will have to see if our suppliers' prices go up. If the prices go up we might have to increase the cost to customers; whatever it takes to keep afloat," he said.

Australian Retailers Association head Russell Zimmerman said the times were uncertain for retailers.

"I don't think retailers can have an accurate estimate of what the tax will cost them before it starts," he said. "They need to monitor their costs very closely on a weekly basis and then make a plan."

The NSW Business Chamber is today launching a campaign for business owners to share their stories on the impact of the tax.

"For most businesses, the carbon tax will be just another burden to bear at a time when they are already facing a difficult economic environment," chamber chief executive Stephen Cartwright said.

He urged businesses to keep detailed records on the impact of the tax and share their story on the chamber's website.

Dump fees to soar as rot sets in

COUNCILS face a multi-million-dollar carbon tax bill for household rubbish rotting in landfills and it's only a matter of time before costs are passed on to ratepayers.

Eight councils have already been nominated as needing to pay the tax on rubbish that rots from today and emits carbon.

But the Australian Landfill Owners Association said all ratepayers would eventually be slugged, not just those living in Wollongong, Newcastle, Port Macquarie, Albury, Armidale, Wagga Wagga, Griffith and Tamworth.

Kon Kinnas, the waste services manager for Whytes Gully landfill in Wollongong, predicts the tip will pay $291,000 in carbon tax in 2013-2014, growing to $578,000 the following year.

Those costs will be passed on to ratepayers.

Miners pay up too

THE mining tax that brought down Kevin Rudd and nearly destroyed a Labor government also starts today, with the revenue to help deliver tax relief to small businesses.

The new tax, which is expected to raise $13 billion by 2016, is being billed as an opportunity to spread the benefits of the mining boom to ordinary Australians.

Opposition Leader Tony Abbott has vowed to scrap the tax if he is elected Prime Minister, describing it and the carbon tax as the "twin evils of tax" that would rip $45 billion out of the economy.

Treasurer Wayne Swan said the scheme would help fund a $1.8 billion boost to family payments, delivering families with two children an extra $600 a year.

"The mining boom has delivered huge benefits for Australia, super-charging mining-related sectors in particular, but also assisting businesses and the community more broadly, including through cheaper imported goods," Mr Swan said yesterday.

"However, the Government recognises that the mining boom has also contributed to challenges for some sectors, like increased competition for labour, and the high Australian dollar."

He said the tax would enable the Government to tackle the patchwork economy.

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/july-1st-changes-are-set-to-hit-australians-in-the-wallet/story-e6freuy9-1226413245723

Abbott, on the other hand, has done a great job of turning it into a scare campaign.

Labor dares to hope that Ted's a one-term wonder

July 1, 2012
Opinion

The polls take their toll on the luckless Premier, writes Bruce Guthrie.

WHO says Ted Baillieu isn't making his mark as Premier? Eighteen months into the job, his approval rating is plummeting - and that pretty much makes him unique among Victoria's most recent political leaders.

As premiers, Brumby, Bracks and Kennett had all increased their ratings after their first year-and-a-half in office.

According to Newspoll records, Brumby went from 46 per cent to 52 per cent, Bracks from 57 per cent to a whopping 64 per cent, and Kennett from 41 per cent to 45 per cent. Given Kennett's crash-through style, that suggests the electorate can be extremely forgiving. Risk-averse Ted might learn from that.

It's unclear if John Cain managed the same popularity lift during his first term in the early 1980s because Newspoll did not start measuring the approval ratings of premiers until midway through that decade. It's a fair bet he did, though; certainly, he managed it in his second term, lifting his approval from 52 per cent immediately after his re-election in 1985 to 60 per cent 18 months on. What Ted wouldn't give for those numbers.

Instead, he has to confront the unpalatable fact that his voter satisfaction has fallen from a healthy 52 per cent midway through last year to a stress-inducing 36 per cent less than 12 months later. This is the stuff of political nightmares.

To make matters worse, every one of those lost seems to have given up on him - his dissatisfaction rate has shot up from 29 per cent to 45 per cent in the same time. That means a voter satisfaction rate of negative nine. It he were hosting a TV show, he'd be off the air by now.

So what's gone wrong? A week out from the election that delivered him and his party a narrow victory in November, 2010, I questioned his passion for the job and wondered whether he wanted it badly enough.

Eighteen months on, I still find myself wondering if he really wants to be at Spring Street. Some have called his approach diffident, some detached. A once prominent Labor government MP pondered this week if Baillieu was motivated not by liberalism but a sense of noblesse oblige, as if his high birth and prominent social position demanded public service. Maybe so, but that won't win him a second term.

Of course, Baillieu hasn't been helped by an underperforming frontbench and an unruly backbench. The economy has not helped much either.

At least he can take comfort from history. It's almost 60 years since a premier was thrown out after just one term, and that was Cain's father. Ironically, Baillieu's less than stellar performance is likely to increase the pressure on Daniel Andrews, who has done a more than creditable job leading the Labor Party since the election defeat that ended more than a decade of ALP rule. In contrast to Baillieu's poll numbers, Andrews' have been remarkably consistent, albeit meagre: in the same period the Premier's voter satisfaction rating has dropped 16 points, Andrews' has risen - by one.

It's hardly enough to justify a lap of honour around the Treasury Gardens, but no doubt he'll take it. While his disapproval rating has consistently hovered around 35 per cent, the good news for the Labor leader is that there is a large pool of uncommitted voters who might yet warm to him.

All of this, and a two-party preferred projection that has the opposition within two percentage points of the Coalition, means that against all odds Labor is a chance at the next election, due in 2014.

But while Andrews has every right to take some satisfaction from that position, he wouldn't want to relax.

A poorly performing government certainly helps Labor, but ultimately it will get back into office only through the hard slog of policy development, party cohesion and strong, effective leadership.

If the prospect of unseating the Coalition grows, so will the expectations on Andrews. His upward trajectory will be tested later this month when voters decide who will succeed the former Bracks and Brumby minister, Bronwyn Pike, in the seat of Melbourne.

It's a fight Andrews and Labor could have done without; certainly, there's a lot of anger within the party towards Pike, who they believe quit the seat prematurely and selfishly.

The Liberals are not fielding a candidate at the July 21 byelection, but there is no shortage of other contenders - 16 in all.

Greens candidate Cathy Oke stands a good chance of wresting the seat from ALP candidate Jennifer Kanis, helped by the preferences of shareholder activist Stephen Mayne.

To make history as the first Green in Victoria's Legislative Assembly, Oke will have to overturn more than 100 years of it. Labor has held the seat since 1908. That said, a recent Morgan poll had Oke eight points ahead of her main rival on a two-party preferred basis. Her position then is the reverse of Baillieu's: history is not on her side, but the polls are.

I suspect Ted would take that. Andrews will take what he can get.

Bruce Guthrie is a former editor of The Sunday Age, The Age and the Herald Sun. Twitter: @brucerguthrie


Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/labor-dares-to-hope-that-teds-a-oneterm-wonder-20120630-219jb.html#ixzz1zM42ZPxC