Party advisers have brought about a change in the language he uses in order to 'tame' his views so that they seem less extreme. His more 'unenlightened' and 'backward' views made it easy to portray him in a negative light with his stances on women's role in society, abortion, family, etc. and they've done a lot of work to make that seem less extreme and make him seem more "likeable" with his traditional values.

And honestly, I think it's working and he'll be our next prime minister.

Numbers shifting back to Rudd

DateFebruary 5, 2013

SUPPORT for Kevin Rudd among Labor MPs appears to have grown, placing the former prime minister potentially within striking distance of Prime Minister Julia Gillard in the event of another challenge.

Estimates put his backing as high as 45 votes out of 102 Caucus members, although Ms Gillard's supporters insist it is lower.

The shift in sentiment follows Labor's trouble-plagued start to the election year, which has shaken MPs and fuelled perceptions of disorder.

Adding to Ms Gillard's discomfort, two of her most senior ministers on Monday said Mr Rudd was an electoral asset.

''I think he is an asset and we should use him, but it has to be a disciplined asset,'' said Arts and Regional Development Minister Simon Crean.

Mr Crean was one of Mr Rudd's harshest critics last year but believes the party would benefit from his popularity.

Ms Gillard's chief parliamentary tactician, Transport Minister Anthony Albanese, also called for Mr Rudd to be returned to the fold.

''Kevin Rudd is an asset to the Australian Labor Party,'' he told Sky News. ''We need to engage Kevin Rudd and use him wherever possible. He's a very popular figure, there's no doubt about that.''

With her leadership now facing greater scrutiny, Ms Gillard on Monday pleaded for loyalty.

At the first ALP caucus meeting for the year, she blamed internal disloyalty for some of Labor's problems, revealing that journalists had told her that MPs had been waiting for the return from holidays to complain about her leadership.

One caucus member, however, said Ms Gillard ''needed to look closer to home''. The MP said Ms Gillard had enjoyed the backing of most MPs during 2012, but this support had noticeably weakened on the back of ''a terrible start'' to the election year.

''We needed to make every post a winner in order to catch the Coalition by polling day, but it hasn't gone to script so far, not at all,'' the MP said.

A series of self-inflicted political wounds has sapped morale and reignited talk about whether anything would be achieved by another leadership change.

These blows include the clumsily handled dumping of Northern Territory senator Trish Crossin and the timing of the election announcement, which was followed closely by the resignations of two senior ministers.

Ms Gillard's reduced support, confirmed to Fairfax Media by multiple sources from both sides of the

caucus, raises the possibility of a second leadership challenge by Mr Rudd, although his supporters say no move is imminent.

Estimates put Mr Rudd's numbers as high as 45 votes - a figure regarded as ''not unrealistic'' by a key Gillard backer, who put it ''closer to 40''.

While Mr Rudd would need 52 votes to win, it is thought that backing in the mid-40s would be enough to build momentum in a leadership ballot.

He received just 31 votes to Ms Gillard's 71 in the bruising leadership ballot a year ago. In the immediate aftermath of that challenge, Ms Gillard's backers believed her two-to-one margin would be sufficient to end the Rudd threat.

However, the former foreign minister has not only remained in politics but has recently begun to ramp up his public profile.

Last week he returned to the the Seven Network's Sunrise program, appearing with the opposition's Joe Hockey. That pairing reprised his regular appearances on the high-rating show that helped to make him a household name in 2006 - a key factor in his rise to the Labor leadership that year.

Voter support for the government, which had been slowly recovering throughout the second half of 2012, has tanked again, according to two separate polls published in News Limited papers.

Labor MPs are particularly concerned about the decline in Ms Gillard's personal standing compared with that of Opposition Leader Tony Abbott.

According to Newspoll, Ms Gillard's standing as preferred prime minister has deteriorated by 4 points to 41 per cent, while Mr Abbott's has climbed by 6 points to 39 per cent in the two weeks since the previous poll.

The poll also showed that the number of people satisfied with her performance has dropped, while the number of those dissatisfied has risen. The opposite was the case for Mr Abbott. The Opposition Leader used a pep talk to his frontbench yesterday to presage a more positive approach to combat Labor's branding of him as ''Dr No''.

''People expected us … to hold the government to account, and we certainly did that, but I think what people are now looking for is for a little bit more from us,'' he told them.

''They want us not so much to be an opposition but to be an alternative government … and that is exactly what you've been getting over the last few weeks.''

With Labor bracing itself for another tough parliamentary session from Tuesday, Mr Crean said the party could win in September despite the recent setbacks.

''We are behind and I have acknowledged that. But we can win. It is difficult but we have to hold our nerve and our conviction and our belief, not just in what we've done but what we plan to do.''



Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/numbers-shifting-back-to-rudd-20130204-2duq0.html#ixzz2JvpCx7Tf

Thank God you live in Australia with the political system and rights to express your radical thoughts, can you please name one Secular system or country where you would prefer to live that would give you same democratic rights and benefits to all citizens like Australia does?

Kevin 24/7 kicks into gear as Gillard leaves the country

by:
By Malcolm Farr, National Political Editor From:
news.com.au February 08, 2013
10:56AM

NON-stop Kevin Rudd today reinforced the impression that his aim as a reluctant backbencher is to upstage Julia Gillard.
He travels overseas much more than your average backbencher, but happens to be home when Ms Gillard has packed her passport and flown away. And he lets people know it.
Mr Rudd in Sydney today attended anniversary celebrations for the national apology to the stolen generation, a hallmark achievement of his brief turn as Prime Minister.
During the speech, he called for a summit on indigenous education, saying the outcomes from the government's efforts had been "disappointing."
His successor, Prime Minister Gillard, was in New Zealand for regular talks with her cross-Tasman counterpart John Key. Guess where most of the attention would be?
. It would be unfair to suggest today's anniversary was a Rudd production designed to embarrass the Prime Minister and steal the spotlight.
But the same could not be of his appearance on Seven's Sunrise - he recently returned to his old TV stomping ground after six years away - where he made pronouncements on the drugs-in-sport scandal as if he were a minister.
'Name names', Mr Rudd instructed the Crimes Commission from his studio chair.
And remember another television appearance last October? Julia Gillard was in India and soon after her arrival Mr Rudd agreed to give a long interview on ABC TV.

The Prime Minister was exploring uranium sales to India and Mr Rudd was giving pointedly qualified support.
"Of course the conditions attached to that are quite formidable as the Prime Minister and the Foreign Minister (Bob Carr) would be aware and that is to ensure that our bilateral safeguards agreement with India that all those conditions are met, including India's compliance with the requirements of what's called the nuclear suppliers group," he said.
And while Ms Gillard is at home, Mr Rudd is likely to be overseas representing himself as a one-man think tank, but looking very much like a minister without a portfolio.
Over the past two months he has appeared at such venues as the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Mumbai, the Brookings Institute in Washington, and Beijing's National Defence University.
Back home there is time to launch his election t-shirt which has the slogan, "It's Our Ruddy Future", help clean up flood damage, and give a variety of speeches as well as re-starting his Sunrise partnership with shadow minister Joe Hockey.
He also had time to co-host the TEN's The Project.
This week Regional Development Minister Simon Crean and Transport Minister Anthony Albanese urged the Government to use Mr Rudd as a campaign asset. It appeared to be an attempt to harness the energies of 'Rudd Inc' for the Government's good.
In fact it was subtle - perhaps too subtle - advise to Mr Rudd to turn down the self promotion and ramp up the team play.
Mr Crean called for Mr Rudd to be a disciplined asset, saying, "I think if that combination of discipline plus the asset can be agreed upon, it would be a fantastic boost to our fortunes, and I would certainly advocate it."
Quite obviously, he did not believe Mr Rudd was being disciplined. It was a warning that his one-man show was getting on the nerves of some Government figures.
It is hugely unlikely Mr Rudd, who has repeated that he will not be challenging for the leadership and will fight to prevent Tony Abbott becoming Prime Minister, will heed the advice.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/kevin-247-kicks-into-gear-as-gillard-leaves-the-country/story-fncynkc6-1226573316511

Labor will reinstall Rudd, says Turnbull
DateFebruary 15, 2013 - 11:51AM


Labor will switch back to Kevin Rudd before the September election, according to former opposition leader Malcolm Turnbull.

''I think it is likely they will put him back,'' Mr Turnbull, the opposition's communications spokesman told ABC Television on Thursday.

''The Gillard government goes from one catastrophe to another.''

But Mr Rudd has ridiculed the suggestion, saying Mr Turnbull should ''jump in the ice bath''.

''I said a week or so ago everyone should take a long cold shower,'' Mr Rudd told Channel Seven on Friday morning. ''What I'd say to Malcolm and you Joe (Hockey) is it's time to jump in the ice bath''.

On the speculation by Mr Turnbull – ''who has no leadership aspirations himself'' – which was forming the basis for a discussion on whether he would challenge again for the leadership, Mr Rudd responded ''give me a break''.

Mr Turnbull was an opposition leader during Mr Rudd's tenure as prime minister. He was removed by the Coalition and Tony Abbott elected to replace him.

Labor's standing in the electorate fell in the most recent Newspoll, with the Coalition having a 12-point buffer in the two-party-preferred vote.

Mr Turnbull has consistently been nominated by voters as the preferred opposition leader over Mr Abbott while polls have shown that Mr Rudd is preferred as PM over Ms Gillard.

A spokesman for Mr Turnbull refused to comment when asked about the chances of Mr Turnbull reclaiming the Liberal leadership given the poll results.

Most recently, independent MP Tony Windsor said the Coalition would definitely win the election if Mr Turnbull was leader, but was circumspect when asked if Labor could win if it replaced Prime Minster Julia Gillard with Mr Rudd.

Workplace Relations Minister Bill Shorten said having Mr Turnbull offer commentary on the Labor Party was like asking rival sports teams to have inside information on each other.

''I'm sure there is a lot of Carlton cheer squad members who have got their ear to the ground about what Collingwood is doing, but I do take it with a grain of salt,'' he told the Nine Network.

''Australians this year want to see a competition of ideas, not just personalities.''

Mr Shorten said he was certain Ms Gillard would lead Labor to the next election.

Mr Turnbull also commented on the mining tax, saying the government had made a mess of it.

Federal Treasurer Wayne Swan was criticised in parliament this week for his handling of the minerals resource rent tax (MRRT).

The tax's revenue was $126 million for the six months to December, short of the $2 billion forecast for this financial year.

''The fate of the mining tax is colossal,'' Mr Turnbull said.

The Labor government switched to Ms Gillard as leader in June 2010, and she subsequently defeated Mr Rudd in a leadership challenge in February 2012.

with AAP



Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/labor-will-reinstall-rudd-says-turnbull-20130215-2egn0.html#ixzz2KxQZ3eKl

By-election threat to test PM's leadership

by: EXCLUSIVE by Andrew Clennell and Gemma Jones From: The Daily Telegraph February 15, 2013 12:00AM

THE government could be pressured into a by-election, with Labor MP Robert McClelland planning to quit his Sydney seat within weeks.

The former federal attorney-general is likely to win a job with the NSW Industrial Relations Commission. Prime Minister Julia Gillard is expected to argue the resignation would be too close to the September 14 election date for a by-election to be necessary, further fuelling speculation the poll decision was simply a strategy to defend that position.

Labor holds the southern Sydney seat by 6.9 per cent but the party would almost certainly lose a by-election.

While the minority government would still have the numbers in parliament to retain power, losing another MP - even without a by-election - would cause a "psychological injury" - as one Labor MP described it.

That would further destabilise Ms Gillard's leadership and again open the door for Kevin Rudd to attempt another tilt for the top job.

State government sources have confirmed a decision on Mr McClelland's job application is as little as one month to two months away.

He is understood to be prepared to jump out of parliament immediately to take on the role.

Yesterday Mr McClelland, who was hosted at a farewell dinner by MPs on Wednesday night in Canberra, did not deny that he planned to quit his seat if he won the position.

"I can't confirm or comment on any position that I have applied for," he said.

"I don't think that's appropriate, and it's speculative as to what action I might take in the event of me being offered such a position."

The state government confirmed it would make an announcement on three industrial relations commissioners' positions "shortly".

A spokesman for Ms Gillard denied yesterday she had any knowledge of Mr McClelland's decision when she announced the election date - a day after Mr McClelland announced he was retiring from politics at the next election.

Mr McClelland's name is expected to be on the shortlist recommended by the interview panel featuring public service department heads to go to Cabinet. It will then be up to Premier Barry O'Farrell and the Cabinet to select him.

It would be difficult for Mr O'Farrell to refuse Mr McClelland the job, given he has extensive industrial law experience and the fact he has been federal attorney-general, but there is likely to be some cabinet opposition to giving a Labor MP a job.

Mr McClelland was dumped from the ministry for supporting Mr Rudd in his leadership challenge last year.

The farewell dinner for Mr McClelland sparked leadership speculation, with veteran minister Simon Crean joining several Rudd supporters at the dinner. Mr Crean's attendance came just a few weeks after he softened a previously ferocious stance against Mr Rudd.

Mr Crean played down his presence with a spokesman saying: "Simon's view is that it was a farewell dinner for Robert McClelland, who has obviously been in parliament with him for years."

Hunter MP Joel Fitzgibbon organised the "farewell" dinner for Mr McClelland, who chose the guests including NSW Right colleagues such as Rudd supporter and minister Chris Bowen, Ed Husic and Mike Kelly.

It is understood the relationship between Mr McClelland and Mr Crean had been fractured until recently over the Rudd challenge.

Mr Rudd, Mr Crean and Mr Fitzgibbon made speeches at the dinner.

"We said a few nice things about Rob. There were some funny stories about when Rob and I played parliamentary rugby. We had fun, as friends often do when they go out to dinner," Mr Fitzgibbon said.

Leadership issues were not discussed, MPs said.

There has been speculation former premier Morris Iemma will run for Barton but it's understood Gillard supporter Tony Burke is pushing his former chief of staff Kirsten Andrews as the candidate instead, amid concerns the ICAC scandal involving former state Labor ministers may hurt Mr Iemma's candidacy.

A spokeswoman for state Treasurer Mike Baird said appointments to the Industrial Relations Commission would be "based on merit and ensuring the candidate has the right experience and skills".

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/by-election-threat-to-test-pms-leadership/story-e6freuy9-1226578296717

PM's poll pain: Abbott and Rudd more popular

DateFebruary 17, 2013

.SUPPORT for both Julia Gillard and her government has slumped, wiping out most of the gains made since the carbon tax was introduced last year and raising the chances that she could be replaced by Kevin Rudd.

Tony Abbott now leads Ms Gillard as preferred prime minister for the first time in seven months, but Mr Rudd declared on Sunday that he would not be drafted to the Labor leadership.

The Herald/Nielsen poll found the gap between Ms Gillard and the former prime minister has grown, with Mr Rudd favoured by 61 per cent of respondents to just 35 per cent for her.

The ALP is gripped by internal tensions over the possibility, but Mr Rudd, who fuelled speculation last week with criticism of the mining tax, used a sixth high-profile TV appearance in a week to dismiss speculation.

''A couple of weeks ago I said everyone should take a cold shower,'' he told Sky News Agenda. ''Last Friday I said they should have an ice bath. It's time this debate was put into cryogenic storage.''

Labor's support, which had climbed into the mid-30s, has now collapsed, plunging it back towards landslide-losing territory were an election held now.

Its primary vote stands at just 30 per cent, a dip of 5 points since the last survey in December and a mere 4 points above its nadir of 26 per cent in May 2012.

Support for the Coalition rose 4 points, taking its primary vote to 47 per cent - its highest level since just after the carbon tax began in July 2012. Greens support held steady at 11 per cent.

On a two-party-preferred basis, Labor's support languishes at 45 per cent to 55 per cent for the Coalition, according to voter feedback on the direction of second preferences.

Based on preference flows from the 2010 election, the two-party split is 44/56 in favour of the Coalition - a swing towards the Coalition.

It was a bad sign for the government in an election year, the pollster John Stirton said.

''It confirms that the trend to Labor that ran from May to November last year and appeared to stall over Christmas is now heading in the opposite direction,'' he said.

Crucially, in terms of Ms Gillard's command of the Labor leadership, Mr Abbott has overtaken her in the preferred prime minister stakes with his support leaping by 9 percentage points to 49 per cent compared with Ms Gillard on 45 - down 5 points.

Labor strategists have previously pointed to her superior popularity as an important reason to retain her leadership.

The poll follows a terrible fortnight for Labor in which Mr Rudd returned prominently to the airwaves and the Treasurer, Wayne Swan, admitted his mining tax had raised almost no revenue.

Fewer than one in four voters now support the mining tax in its current form with two thirds of voters in favour of either dumping it or making it stronger.

The national poll of 1400 voters was carried out between Thursday and Saturday.

Approval/disapproval ratings tell a similar story of woe for the embattled Prime Minister.

The snapshot of voter sentiment coincides with a Galaxy Poll published by News Limited newspapers on Sunday that showed female voters, thought to be Ms Gillard's secret weapon against Mr Abbott, were walking away, with 36 per cent indicating support for the Prime Minister.

Mr Stirton said it was possible that women may have led the charge away from Ms Gillard.

''There is some evidence that the fall in Labor's vote was greater among women than men but we will need another round of polls to confirm this,'' he said.



Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/pms-poll-pain-abbott-and-rudd-more-popular-20130217-2elb7.html#ixzz2L9evvWni

For Gillard, the bad news comes in threes

DateFebruary 18, 2013

JULIA GILLARD today gets the political news she most fears, at the time she fears it most.

After declaring that she will go to the people on September 14, she now finds that the people are running from her.

The voter trend towards Labor in the second half of last year has now reversed.
There are three distinct political tremors in today's Herald-Nielsen poll result that, together, come as an earthquake for Labor.

First is that the voter trend towards Labor in the second half of last year has now reversed.

Second is that Gillard has now lost to Tony Abbott her only poll advantages. While Labor has been in a losing position for a long time, Gillard had the consolation of two areas of personal dominance over Tony Abbott.

She has now lost both - she is no longer preferred prime minister, and she no longer has a higher approval rating.

Third, Kevin Rudd's popularity not only remains strong, but has grown stronger.

And while Gillard fears losing power to Tony Abbott at the election, the more urgent danger is from Rudd's popularity. Because Rudd offers the party a way out of the landslide that, on today's poll results, would sweep Labor out of power with a swing against it of 6 percentage points.

The Prime Minister's dramatic early announcement of the election arrested national attention.

For a moment she had the chance to hold the initiative and monopolise the political airwaves. But the announcement was hastily conceived. There was no follow-through plan, apart from a jarring announcement of two cabinet resignations.

We now know that Gillard lost her precious moment. Instead of the government towards a new momentum she merely provided Labor with a dramatic attention-grabbing moment for it to showcase its ugliest faces – the faces of scandal and corruption, the faces of Craig Thomson and Eddie Obeid. And, of course, the admission that its much-vaunted mining tax is a farce.

''I think the most likely thing is that the combined effect of Craig Thomson and Eddie Obeid created an atmosphere of crisis,'' says Nielsen's John Stirton.

And while Labor lost its opportunity, Tony Abbott took his. ''I think the results probably reflect Abbott's change of approach,'' becoming less aggressive and more positive, says Stirton. ''There have been far fewer shots of him on the evening news in his shrill, hectoring mode. He's been more moderate and bipartisan – it took him a long time to learn, but the voters rather like that.''

This dire combination is not necessarily fatal for Gillard, or for Labor. John Howard recovered from worse polling to win in 2001. But each passing week of bungles and bad news narrows her options for recover.



Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/for-gillard-the-bad-news-comes-in-threes-20130217-2elbp.html#ixzz2L9fRDbPe

Rudd is Labor's last chance
DateFebruary 20, 2013

It's time, Labor. Time to end the delusion that Julia Gillard and her battle-scarred camp followers have any chance of political resurrection. Kevin Rudd might well be a very naughty boy, but Labor has no choice but to test whether he still has the makings of a messiah.

It is the only card this discredited, demoralised and dysfunctional government has left to play.

The caucus and union hatchet men who toppled Rudd in June 2009 need to polish their knuckledusters and head back to the prime ministerial suite. Gillard needs to be told that her time is up and she must resign the leadership for the greater good. Rudd needs to be reinstated by unanimous accord and his first act back on the throne must be to call an immediate election.

Advertisement Of course, many voters would view this as being yet another seedy episode in the march of seediness that has been Labor in power over the past couple of years - and the Coalition would be quick to remind them of the poisonous things all those colleagues said about Rudd when he had the temerity to challenge Gillard early last year.

But the harnessing of Rudd's remarkably persistent popularity is the only obvious action that can turn electoral annihilation into salvageable defeat for Labor - the difference between a chance of winning back power after three years and the certainty of at least two parliamentary terms in the exile of opposition. Every Labor MP on a margin of 7 per cent or less - even those who loathe Rudd - now lives this truth.

And should Labor act to stop this unstoppable rot then maybe, just maybe, sufficient voters would be so elated at being spared the unimaginable sufferings of a seven-month campaign to a September 14 poll, that they would let Kevin13 steal a miraculous win.

This week's Age/Nielsen poll was not just another bad poll for Gillard. It was the poll that demolished what faint hope remained among her supporters that she might have what it takes to rebuild her fortunes and those of the government.

It proved the lift in the Prime Minister's ratings late last year - fuelled by her stirring stand against the rising tide of misogyny (aka Tony Abbott) - was no more than a wistful blip on the radar of her persistent unpopularity. She has never as prime minister achieved the levels of electoral support needed to sustain a leader in a Western democracy and the hard-learnt lessons of political history shout that she never will.



The poll showed a slump in Labor's primary vote, leaving the party trailing the Coalition by a disastrous 44 to 56 per cent on a two-party preferred basis. It showed Abbott now leading Gillard as preferred prime minister for the first time in seven months. And it showed that almost twice as many Labor voters want Rudd as their leader as want Gillard.

In a way, perhaps the only surprising thing is that the numbers were not worse.

This is surely Gillard's annus horribilis - and it's hardly started. Already we've had the bizarre decision to call the election eight months out, the still puzzling resignations of two senior cabinet ministers, the charging of Craig Thomson, the scandalous soap opera of the corruption hearings involving the former New South Wales Labor government, and the confirmation that the mining tax is a bad joke that is doing nothing to help our beleaguered budget bottom line. The only tricks Labor can take, it seems, are those allegedly procured by Mr Thomson on his union-funded credit card.

In the midst of this turmoil, the Prime Minister and her Treasurer are spending quality time at the Australian Workers Union national conference on the Gold Coast, cuddling up with national secretary Paul Howes and doing high-fives with union elder statesman Bill Ludwig. Of course it was Howes - along with his predecessor as AWU boss, Workplace Minister Bill Shorten - who played a central role replacing Rudd with Gillard and whose inordinate influence over the internal processes of the ALP is pivotal to her remaining in the job.

One might have thought Gillard would be wiser to keep her distance from anything involving the initials AWU as the Victorian police fraud squad continues its intensive investigation into the hundreds of thousands of dollars stolen from an AWU slush fund she helped to incorporate as a young lawyer by her former boyfriend and AWU official Bruce Wilson, once the golden-haired protege of Bill Ludwig.

Meanwhile, Kevin Rudd has been busy getting himself back on breakfast television and hawking himself around every media outlet in the country not nimble enough to avoid his dance of the seven veils - and his endless protestations that he's a man cured of ambition and driven solely by the obligations of team play.

But it is a tad rich for Gillard's supporters to decry Rudd's antics and blame him for the government's woes.

The harsh reality for Gillard is that Rudd would have no traction if she were not so persistently accident-prone, so often inclined to taking rash decisions without fully consulting her colleagues - as in the Nova Peris shambles - and so incapable of winning over the Australian electorate.

And in the vacuum created by her failings of leadership, Rudd has as much right as anyone else to again stake his claim to the top job - as she and her associates did when he stumbled three years ago.

A consensus decision to reinstate Rudd is now the only clear way out of Labor's mess. There are no obvious alternatives. Shorten, the man most often mentioned, is tarred by his role in the Rudd coup and there is little evidence that the public shares his conviction about his leadership credentials.

A snap election would give Labor a potential edge by catching the Coalition when it still has unresolved policy and leadership issues of its own. It would also mean voters who still think Kevin is the best, or the best of a bad lot, will have little time to change their mind about a man whose period in the wilderness appears to have done nothing to moderate his ego or his enduring sense of entitlement.

Mark Baker is editor-at-large.



Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/rudd-is-labors-last-chance-20130219-2epef.html#ixzz2LNfZdA3P

Labor MPs need to stop talking about KRudd and grow a set, says union leader

From:
AAP February 21, 2013

AUSTRALIAN Workers' Union boss Paul Howes has chastised Labor MPs who are leaking to the media to undermine Prime Minister Julia Gillard.

The National Secretary, in his most fiery speech to the AWU's national conference, launched a tirade against MPs who are backgrounding journalists in the halls of parliament and promoting a leadership challenge by Kevin Rudd.

There is reportedly momentum for a shift towards Mr Rudd as MPs realise they would lose their seats based on current polling.


Mr Howes said nothing upset him more than opening the paper on an almost daily basis to read quotes from "senior Labor sources" undermining the leadership.

. "What a bunch of gutless p****s they are that they can't put their names to what they are saying," he said.

Federal election 2013

Earlier today, former prime minister Kevin Rudd said federal government is on the nose because of difficulties communicating its message and a fractious parliament.

Asked why Labor was "on the nose", Mr Rudd blamed communication, and the unusual parliament.
Tony Abbott talks about his "cool dude" threads

"There are difficulties of communicating a message," Mr Rudd told Fairfax Radio today.
"The core of the government's challenge is dealing with a very fractious parliament."
Asked whether he would allow himself to be drafted as leader, Mr Rudd said he supported the prime minister.

"I said I won't challenge, I mean that," Mr Rudd said.

"The issue of a draft doesn't arise."

A recent Nielsen poll put Labor's primary vote at just 30 per cent, down five points since December.

Mr Rudd said there was a lack of historical context in poll analysis, as former prime ministers John Howard and Bob Hawke had faced sagging popularity at some point.
"These are difficult times," he said.

"Of course the challenges are real. Our challenge is to explain our record."
Meanwhile, the AWU said it will train 280,000 delegates in marginal and blue collar electorates who will mobilise and talk to thousands of non-affiliated workers.

"In our nation's pubs, in our workplaces, at our footy fields, AWU members will be trained (and) be given the tools they need to have conversations with the rest of the Australian population about the issues that actually matter," Mr Howes said.

Mr Howes announced his Obama-like election campaign strategy at the AWU's national conference with a searing attack on Mr Abbott's personality.

He said the only thing the opposition leader was consistent on were his "bizarre and extremist social conservative policies".

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/labors-problem-is-communication-rudd/story-fncynkc6-1226582663749

Galaxy poll finds Kevin Rudd would lead Labor to election victory if he regained ALP leadership

by:
Steven Scott From:
The Courier-Mail February 22, 2013
4:39PM

KEVIN Rudd would catapult Labor into an election-winning position if he was reinstalled as leader, according to a new Galaxy poll.

The Courier Mail reports a comeback by the former prime minister would deliver a massive 14 percent boost to Labor's primary vote, putting it in line to seize two thirds of the seats in Queensland.

The poll of 800 Queenslanders found federal Labor's support, with Prime Minister Julia Gillard at the helm, was stuck on 33 per cent support - close to its primary vote at the last election.

This would see Tony Abbott lead the Coalition to victory by 55 per cent to 45 per cent on a two party preferred basis in Queensland if preferences flowed as they did in 2010.

But Labor's primary vote would soar to 47 per cent in Queensland if Mr Rudd returned to the leadership and faced off against Mr Abbott, the poll found.

. Under the Rudd scenario, Labor would win the election by 53 per cent to 47 per cent on a two party preferred basis.

This would see Labor achieve a swing of 8 points since the last federal election and win back all of the seats it lost in Queensland in 2010 except for Leichhardt.

A switch back to Mr Rudd would see the Liberal National Party's support drop by 5 points.
Almost half the supporters of the Greens and Katter's Australian Party would also switch their vote to Labor.

The poll surveyed 800 people across Queensland on the evenings of February 20 and 21.
The results suggest Mr Rudd could deliver Labor a much-needed boost in Queensland at a time when its support has collapsed in NSW and other states.

"The reinstatement of Kevin Rudd as leader would be the real game-changer," Galaxy chief executive David Briggs said.

Leadership speculation has again dogged Julia Gillard as Labor MPs begin to despair about a slump in support in national opinion polls.

Mr Rudd has ruled out challenging Julia Gillard for the leadership. But he has recently lifted his appearances in the media in a move some see as provocative.

Some of Mr Rudd's supporters want him to be drafted back into the job if Ms Gillard cannot turn around Labor's poll results.


http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/galaxy-poll-finds-kevin-rudd-would-lead-labor-to-election-victory-if-he-regained-alp-leadership/story-fncynkc6-1226583699537

Kevin 13?
DateFebruary 23, 2013 (0)

THE problem with this story is no one knows how it ends. Not the protagonists, who are still writing it. Not the pundits, stenographers to a car crash. Will Kevin Rudd come back to the Labor leadership? Will Julia Gillard - the toughest cookie we've possibly ever seen in The Lodge - see the threat off once again?

In times such as this, where anything could happen, it's best to stick with some knowns. What can we say of the present? Internal trust and cohesion in the government is badly fractured, if not broken.

Proponents and opponents of change are briefing against one another apparently without restraint. Someone this week thought it reasonable to leak against the $1 billion industry plan that was meant to be a building block of recovery ahead of the election campaign - a potent signifier of the extent of the current dysfunction, if one was necessary.

The media cycle is thundering out of control. Labor must not only manage the complex truths associated with the difficulties in which it finds itself but also manage the perceptions of the current state of play; some wild and blatantly mischievous, some devastatingly accurate.

''Ruddmentum'' appeared unstoppable at the start of the week, an inelegant, squalling panic prompted by a bad Nielsen poll, which exploded into the news cycle. Timing was everything. The bad poll was only the sum of recent parts: the scrappy opening to the political year, the underwhelming performance of the mining tax, which served to reinforce perceptions that Labor can't manage the economy despite strong fundamentals. But it dropped like a portent of looming, irrevocable disaster.

By week's end, cabinet figures had rallied to balance not only the public messages, but the internal sentiment. Camp Kevin yanked its head in, concerned about the consequences of too much undirected chatter too soon. The Labor ship was drifting in a sea of irresolution, but not listing quite so violently.

Yet the central problem persists. What to do, whether there is anything to do, and if there's something to do, how and when to do it? There are also deeper questions to be considered, and these are sometimes overlooked in the rush to parse who said what on The Project. Principally the question is: what are the consequences of acting versus not acting? This is a question the party comprehensively failed to ask itself in the June 2010 leadership coup. It has paid the price ever since.

Given his enduring popularity, his strengths as a performer on new and old media, his power and potential potency as a circuit-breaker, the logic of a return to Kevin Rudd seems unassailable, until you imagine what is actually required to execute it, and the ultimate consequences for Labor if peace can't be declared, finally, once and for all; if leadership change became just another stuff-up.

A GRAND bargain. That's the scale of ambition in the most considered quarters of Camp Kevin. Not simply cosmetic change - a new figurehead presiding over the old, riven fundamentals - but a game change.

The game-change scenario is a co-ordinated move against Gillard at the cabinet level: a majority of Gillard backers, not just the oft-mentioned Bill Shorten, switching camps and being prepared to make the shift decisive. By that they mean the obvious: Julia Gillard goes and really goes, agreeing not to recontest at the election; and Wayne Swan too.

''The consequences are there. Julia can't stay. Wayne can't stay,'' insists one Rudd man. Labor would also likely lose its Senate leader: it's hard to imagine Communications Minister Stephen Conroy serving in a Rudd ministry, given the extent of their mutual antipathy. Possibly there would be other departures, and, of course, elevations. Chris Bowen is said to have been promised Treasury if Rudd returns. Presumably the new-broom philosophy would be applied liberally.

The point of this transaction is drawing the line. Someone wins and someone loses, and agrees they've lost. The situation since the last leadership battle has been irresolution and cycles of retribution, some of them petty, some spectacular. The two combatants have remained on their feet, and like that quaint yet powerful Harry Potter scenario, neither truly lives while the other survives.

But the idea of Gillard and Swan departing the field for Rudd is, to put it mildly, hard to get your head around. A third candidate maybe, but Kevin? Colleagues close to both laugh at the prospect. Talk is swirling at the moment of a deal to accommodate the two. Without concrete details, it's hard to assess how serious or viable that proposition actually is.

Colleagues close to Gillard and Swan insist the current talk of accommodation is deliberate, dastardly misinformation. As one person puts it: ''People don't ride off into the sunset here while the knight rides on. That's not how this happens.''

Gillard supporters also insist the current activity is centred on building a credible illusion of momentum both with the media, which plays along in brainless hourly blips in order to feed the insatiable 24/7 beast that prioritises immediacy and ''newness'' over the coherence of the story, and to create panic in the caucus. One Gillard loyalist declares proponents of the Rudd comeback are ''constantly on the phone stampeding people, telling lies to create panic''. Left unsaid in the critique is the obvious: the nasty habit of panic becoming self-fulfilling.

People on both sides of the Gillard/Rudd conundrum can agree at least conceptually that a shoulder tap followed by the dignified exit could be a mechanism to make leadership change a genuine circuit-breaker rather than a hypothetical one. But it seems unlikely to occur in the real world. Whether a majority of influential ministers with divergent relationships, loyalties and personal ambitions would switch in concert to Rudd (a person who even fervent supporters are not convinced can change his governing spots). Whether a duo as pathologically tough and uncompromising as Julia Gillard and Wayne Swan could suddenly accept Kevin is the answer to Labor's problems, given their (and others') abiding belief that he, in fact, created many of the problems during the chaotic first term.

What of the Kevin factor? His loyal supporters say Rudd could lift Labor's vote by as much as 15 per cent. His popularity with the public has been extremely resilient, and he's a nimble communicator capable of playing the game in an era where left-field and off-Broadway delivers you a guarantee of centre-stage. Almost uniquely among our current political class, Kevin Rudd intuits how to speak to voters in an era when the conventional modes of political communication are breaking down.

Research done by Nielsen last September suggested Rudd could boost Labor's primary vote by 10 per cent (taking votes from the Coalition, Greens and independents) - but pollster John Stirton heavily qualifies the number.

He says the boost applies only in a ''magic scenario'' - a bloodless coup where everyone agrees leadership change is necessary, Kevin Rudd is the only viable candidate, and everyone rallies behind the leader. In this case, the leader would have also needed to have learnt a thing or two from past mistakes.

Magic sometimes happens. It happened when Alexander Downer handed over the leadership of the Liberal Party to John Howard in opposition. That was precisely the scenario. Asked whether history is likely to repeat itself in 2013, Stirton sounds dubious. ''And in the absence of the magical transition, it's hard to imagine leadership change not doing significant damage,'' he says.

High risk it is. Fresh in a number of minds is the horror show of the 2010 election campaign, which was characterised by acts of deliberate destabilisation. The fear is history would repeat itself - a new cycle of retribution, another slide backwards.

There are other practical problems. Rudd would no doubt position himself as a leader capable of taking on the various cancers afflicting the party - a desirable development given the radioactive murk leaching out of the corruption inquiry in New South Wales, and the Health Services Union imbroglio. That culture of institutionalised abhorrence needs to be rooted out, and Rudd is sufficiently independent-minded to want to see it done.

Electoral plus, plus for morality, necessary for Labor to sustain itself as a viable movement into the future - but then the obvious conundrum: how to campaign without the comfort of guaranteed institutional support. Would trade unions kick in the cash and resources for a leader intent on a post-election jihad?

The Australian Workers Union made a great show of public support for Julia Gillard this past week. AWU boss Paul Howes pledged 110 per cent support for the current occupant of The Lodge, then escalated, not exactly helpfully, given the internal tinderbox. ''Nothing upsets me more lately than opening newspapers on a daily or weekly basis and reading anonymous quotes from 'senior Labor sources' undermining our Prime Minister, undermining the leadership of our movement and this country. What a bunch of gutless pricks they are that they can't put their names to what they are saying,'' Howes declared in a closing address to a union shindig on the Gold Coast.

Prime Minister Gillard this week genuflected to Howes and to powerbroker Bill Ludwig. Not a great look from the vantage point of the general public, to be sure, a deep curtsy to the faceless men, but a gesture reflecting some basic realities of the relationship. (Some Rudd folks, of course, counsel journalists too inclined to take people at their word that union leaders professing undying loyalty to Labor leaders have been known to turn on a dime.)

And then there's another issue: concern in some quarters that the problem isn't so much the messenger but the message. Some ministers have looked on with concern as the strategy has contracted to rallying the base. Says one: ''Class warfare isn't modern Labor. Is it the Scot [Julia Gillard's communications director John McTernan]? Is it Swannie [Treasurer Wayne Swan]? Narrowing the perception of what we stand for isn't the way to win. We need the bolder agenda. Why aren't we talking the language of the modern economy?''

Gillard this week publicly eschewed a ''progressive'' agenda, asserting Labor's historical ties with working people. The tit-for-tat with the Greens prompted by Christine Milne's decision this week to end the formal agreement will doubtless exacerbate a trend we have seen open in the past few days: both parties narrowcasting to the base. Not everybody is happy with that direction, but the answer to that question may not be Kevin Rudd. Not necessarily - not without gestures of contrition that mean something. Not without a decisive sequence of events rendering the status quo untenable. Not without a decisive shift that could yet happen, but hasn't yet - not on the balance of the evidence.

One minister says: ''Is the problem the leader or the leadership agenda? I don't know where it ends - all I know is it can't go on like this.''



Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/kevin-13-20130222-2ewx4.html#ixzz2LdUwFKUN

i have heard they have changed the date of "clean up Australia" now set for the 14th of september

Considering that Gillard is being investigated by Victoria Police

Abbott's advisors could tell him a lot worse knowing how easily he could fuck this all up in one sentence.

Right faction of ALP split over Bill Shorten

by:
Samantha Maiden From:
Sunday Herald Sun February 24, 2013
12:00AM

BILL Shorten's refusal to tap Julia Gillard to stand down as Prime Minister could have implications for his own leadership ambitions, Rudd backers have warned.

While the Left faction is quietly backing Greg Combet to replace the PM if she loses the September election, the Right is split over Mr Shorten.

"Why would we reward Shorten?" a Labor MP said.

"We are about to lose a generation of talent.

"We will support Combet as leader down the track if we think he's got what it takes.

"He's doing a really good job with the business community. His office is one of the best around."

Mr Shorten has expressly ruled out playing kingmaker again. Dubbed one of the key "faceless men" for his role in the 2010 leadership coup, he is backing Ms Gillard.

Parliament's resumption on March 12 is now seen as a crucial period for Ms Gillard. It will come just days after the Western Australia state election, which the ALP is expected to lose.

. An exclusive Galaxy poll, published today by Perth's Sunday Times, puts support for the Labor Party in WA ahead of the state election at just 35 per cent.

Strategists have issued a "keep out" edict to Ms Gillard and her ministers in the lead-up to the March 9 election.

Ms Gillard has agreed to the request.

On the orders of campaign chiefs, she has declined to set foot in WA since late last year.
"We rang everyone in December and said, 'Please, don't come,' " a Labor strategist said.

"We've made it very clear and, to be fair, everyone has been fabulous about not coming because there are still some grown-ups."

Defence Minister Stephen Smith has been "fantastic" in enforcing the ban, according to ALP sources. A former WA state secretary for Labor, Mr Smith has ensured his colleagues do not cross the border unless it is unavoidable.

"Why? Federal politics is poison," a Labor source said.

"Soft voters are turned off by federal politics. Every time you go doorknocking and you mention federal politics, people just go, 'Arrrgggh!'

"They start off bagging Julia but they end up bagging Tony Abbott. It's just a spiral of anger."

The Prime Minister's office confirmed Ms Gillard would not be campaigning in Perth ahead of the state election.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/right-faction-of-alp-split-over-bill-shorten/story-fncynkc6-1226584290036

"They start off bagging Julia but they end up bagging Tony Abbott. It's just a spiral of anger."

Labor can win the September election if it presents unified front, Brendan O'Connor says

From:
News Limited Network February 24, 2013
12:56PM



FEDERAL Immigration Minister Brendan O'Connor believes Labor can win the next election if the party presents a unified front against Opposition Leader Tony Abbott.

Speaking on Meet the Press this morning, Mr O'Connor urged unity in the party and said former PM Kevin Rudd could play a positive role in the coming election campaign.

Speculation Mr Rudd was planning yet another leadership challenge has been rife in recent weeks as he toured the country and ramped up his social media activity.

"I've got a high regard for Kevin Rudd and I think he certainly can play a positive role and I've always acknowledged the things he did well when prime minister. Mr O'Connor said.

The Data Files

. But he said the party needed to get behind Prime Minister Julia Gillard and concentrate on defeating the Liberals in the September poll. He said Mr Abbott was trying to escape scrutiny.

"If we have a unity of purpose, if we're together we can win the next election, because we have the set of policies that most Australians need and are indeed crying out for," he said.

"I don't think that can be said of Tony Abbott who has no policies and is hoping to get to the election without actually declaring anything on industrial relations, on his policies on health, on his policies on education.

"If we are unified there'll be more focus on the alternative prime minister and I think if that's the case we can win the next election."

Mr O'Connor's comments come as Labor's right faction warned key Gillard backer Bill Shorten his refusal tap Ms Gillard to stand down as Prime Minister could have implications for his own leadership ambitions.

Mr Shorten has expressly ruled out playing kingmaker again. Dubbed one of the key "faceless men" for his role in the 2010 leadership coup, he is backing Ms Gillard.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/labor-can-win-the-september-election-if-it-presents-unified-front-brendan-oconnor-says/story-fncynkc6-1226584436317

It seems strange that this is not mainstream news headlines if true.