QFT

Trump is unelectable. It still surprises me people here take his clown show seriously.

The reality is that the President has much less power than people perceive. This is doubly so when the Congress is held by the other party.

Obamacare is flawed, and does not provide universal healthcare. But it is a vast improvement on what preceded it.

The only area the president has a free hand is in overseas conflict. And Obama has really just continued the policies started under Bush. Granted, he probably wouldn't have invaded Iraq, but when he came in he didn't have much choice other than to maintain the policy he was left with.

The arab spring and its fall out was not predicted by anyone. I think most politicians in his position would not have done much better containing the fall out.

I think Obama did as well as could be reasonably expected when faced with the following:

The collapse of the world economy - the GFC, occurred just before he came in

The Iraq and Afghanistan wars and the failed states they left behind, were handed to him to manage

The arab spring took everyone by surprise. And the fall out continues.

You can criticise him here and there for dithering, but there is no easy solution he could have implemented that would have solved anything.

Edited by AzzaMarch: 14/1/2016 09:30:12 AM

well electing another clown after enduring 8 years of this current clown isn't that big of a stretch:d

Where the polls are a bit deceiving with regards to Trump are as follows:

1) In a very big field he has a plurality of the support. He definitely has a hardcore strong base of support larger than the other candidates. However, these polls don't indicate the "dislikeability". Eg - when the field thins out, I think he will struggle to capture the support of the voters whose candidates have dropped out.

He is extremely polarising. This works well in the current situation - very early days, and also a large field. In a large field having 30% in the polls is a strong position.

The real testing ground is when the field thins to Trump, Rubio & Cruz. I think Trump will struggle to pick up further votes.

2) Polls at this stage are notoriously unreliable - especially with a large field. A much better indication is the polls asking people "who do you expect to win?" From what I have seen, Trump doesn't rate highly here.

However, having said all the above - I do think it possible for Trump to win the nomination, but unlikely.

I think it will come down to how long the field stays large. This increases the unpredictability of the situation. Perhaps 25-30% will be enough to win.

But I think if it started looking that way, the Republican establishment will ensure that candidates drop out, and support coalesces behind either Rubio or Cruz.

Trump will not win any votes from blacks or Hispanics in a presidential race. Just winning the votes of angry white people is not enough to win a general election anymore. Romney proved this.

The demographic make up of republican primary voters skews much more older and whiter than the demographics of the Presidential election voters.

The other risk the Republicans face is whether Trump runs as a 3rd party candidate if he fails to get the republican nomination. That is their biggest danger.

Edited by AzzaMarch: 14/1/2016 09:22:20 AM

I cannot imagine a country who had Obama as president electing goddamn Trump.

Yes, he went up in the polls.

For sake of consistency

Iowa
February 1st

Republicans
Cruz 30.8 26.2
Trump 26.8 28.7
Rubio 12.0 11.0
Carson 9.0 8.8
Bush 5.2 5.0
Huckabee 2.8 3.0
Paul 2.8 3.2
Christie 2.6 3.2
Fiorina 2.0 2.0
Kasich 1.6 2.8
Santorum 0.8 1.0

Democrats
Clinton 49.8 47.9
Sanders 37.3 41.5
O'Malley 6.3 5.5

New Hampshire
9th February

Republicans
Trump 29.4 32.0
Rubio 13.4 10.0
Cruz 11.2 11.4
Kasich 10.2 13.4
Christie 10.0 8.4
Bush 8.8 8.2
Carson 4.6 2.6
Fiorina 4.2 4.2
Paul 4.0 4.2
Santorum 0.8 0.8
Huckabee 0.4 0.8

Democrats
Sanders 48.2 51.6
Clinton 43.6 39.8
O'Malley 2.4 2.6

Nevada
20th February for Democrats, 23rd for Republicans (Polls are outdated)

Republicans
Trump 33
Cruz 20
Rubio 11
Carson 6
Fiorina 5
Christie 5
Bush 5
Paul 1
Huckabee 0
Kasich 0

Democrats
Clinton 50.0
Sanders 30.5

South Carolina
27th for Democrats, 20th for Republicans

Republicans
Trump 33.0 35.0
Cruz 22.0 20.5
Rubio 12.0 11.5
Carson 9.5 9.0
Bush 8.5 10.0
Paul 3.5 3.0
Christie 3.5 2.5
Fiorina 3.0 2.0
Katich 1.5 2.5
Huckabee 1.5 1.5
Santorum 0.5 0.5

Democrats
Clinton 66.0
Sanders 26.0
O'Malley 2.5


Edited by tbitm: 24/1/2016 08:45:22 PM

They are just polls.
Actual voters are a different story.

Numbers in black were the average of polls from 10th December, coloured red or green are the latest average as of this post

Just a follow up on this now its been a month.

Average of polls from November 15th to December 8th Trump +10.7

Average of polls since the 8th of December Trump +18.1

Clinton looks like Karl Marx in comparison to the Republicans. The GOP is batshit crazy, the closest thing they have to a moderate in the primary is John Kasich and even he is very right-wing.

I'm no fan of Clinton either, but she'd at least be competent and would be far more progressive than any Republican. She's further right than Obama but her administration wouldn't be much different to his - which is fine with me.

Clinton is centre right. Just in the USA they trick the people into thinking she is left.

conspiracy theories :roll:

Clinton is by far the better option than any of the GOP loons

No, the only one worse than Clinton is Cruz. She is trouble.

[youtube]Rpm4rjejFgQ[/youtube]

Clinton has even shit on Australia. At one point she said Australia shouldnt rely on the USA so much. Australia makes deals with China. She calls Australia a traitor.

It's not a just a Trump thing. It's a right wing thing.
Right wingers are, on average, more racist. It's easy enough to see it on this forum, let alone the wider community

Edited by Murdoch Rags Ltd: 10/1/2016 06:03:14 PM

Jack Fink ✔ @cbs11jack
Guy in striped shirt in center being removed after holding up sign critical of @HillaryClinton @CBSDFW

Sanders is polling better than Obama did in comparison to '08, unfortunately so is Hillary.

What is shitting as much as the insane rhetoric from the GOP is the female card being played by the Clinton camp and its supporters, ie "It's time for a woman POTUS". Whoever makes the most sense with the best policies should win, not the one who just happens to have a pussy

what fucking planet do u live in you delusion left wing nutjob?
re: gun control, under his presidency, gun purchases has gone through the roof:lol:

Disgraceful by the Trump campaign though. Showing their true racist colours.
Expelling Muslims from their event is tantamount to apartheid or Hitler excluding Jews from his massive rallies during the 1930s.

He's unelectable and this should confirm that if it hasnt been already to the naive people caught up in Trumpmania.

Edited by trident: 10/1/2016 01:14:12 PM

:shock:

Clinton is a better option than anyone from the delusional rabble in the GOP.

Edited by JP: 10/1/2016 10:11:42 AM

Id vote for him, when it comes down to Clinton or him

...says the Donald Trump supporter.

That's so true. This 'ugliness' you speak of has never occurred under a leftist regime.

Geez that's pretty bad.

-PB

The further to the right, the greater the ugliness. As night follows day.
It's due to low effort thinking.

There's no way in hell ANY republican will get New York or California, so its stupid to point to it and say "Trump can't get this" because no Republican can. IIRC the last time California went red was with Reagan, and even then he won pretty much the entire country. If Trump won Cali it would be like if the Libs won Melbourne here.

The rest are attainable imo, some more than others (especially Florida).



Confirmed for literally and utterly retarded.

Edited by 433: 10/1/2016 01:52:25 AM

National polls are a bit deceptive at this stage. Hillary led Obama in national democratic polls in early 2008 even as Obama was racking up wins. Only when people realised that Obama could actually win did things shift.

I think the first couple of republican primaries will be key to sorting out realistic candidates from the dead wood. When the race gets down to fewer candidates it will be easier to judge whether Trump will be the candidate. The non-Trump voters are spread between several candidates.

And I can tell you now that you haven't got a clue if you think Trump has a chance of being President. Hell, if he somehow wins the nomination maybe even Texas will go Democratic.

The only way to even entertain the possibility of Trump winning is to reject all kinds of conventional wisdom about US Presidential politics. Everything from past elections suggests that Trump won't win, so it simply does not make sense to claim that President Trump is a possibility and at the same time default to conventional lines about Iowa's relative importance.

It really isn't that difficult.

you have to remember it doesn't come down to a straight vote or the way we do it but via the Electoral College.

There is no way Trump wins enough electoral college votes out of these states to win the election

12 Washington
14 New Jersey
20 Illinois
29 Florida
29 New York
55 California

sure he may get the South and the Mid West but they're small potato's



Edited by Joffa: 9/1/2016 11:41:57 PM

Trump absolutely has a chance to win the nomination. From there its between 2 candidates, anything can happen.