Aikhme
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this better pay off, and Clinton better do the right thing and escalate the war against the regime or else!
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Aikhme
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+x+x+xHoly shit JP has gone full salmon. Meanwhile; The poll with the best track record over the last three presidential elections gave Donald Trump a 2-percentage-point edge over Hillary Clinton on Saturday. The Investor’s Business Daily/TIPP tracking poll has Trump with 42.1 percent and Clinton at 39.7 percent. The IBD/TIPP survey, which includes 791 likely voters and carries a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points, was the most accurate predictor of the final results in the last three presidential elections — calling the outcomes within 0.9 percent of the actual tally in 2004, 2008, and 2012.http://nypost.com/2016/10/23/trump-leading-in-poll-that-has-best-track-record-over-last-three-elections/ Only a Trump supporter would ignore hundreds of other polls to cherry pick the single outlier that favours your candidate. I'm not ignoring the polls. How can I? I've long maintained polls are easily manipulated and they can't be trusted to accurately predict the outcome of such a charged election. I only post this poll because of its apparent accuracy over the last 3 elections. 11.mvfc, what is your motivation for supporting Trump? Is it because he is anti establishment? I think it will be awful if America seeks an isolationist policy. Right now, the Syrians are using barrel bombs with Chemical warfare canisters against schools, hospitals, and civilians in Aleppo. we are talking War Crimes here. Someone needs to be held accountable and America is the only country with any prospect of achieving this.
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TheDecider
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+xR: 56 senate seats Trump by 4 points R: 260 house seats R: 33 governor's. At this point you have to be trolling. There is no logical basis for you to assume that the polls are wrong; and, if they are wrong, no reason to assume they are wrong in Clinton's favour rather than wrong in Trump's favour (I.e. if they're off by six points, that might mean this election is a tossup, or it might mean that Clinton actually has a 12 point lead). Essentially, you're ignoring an incredible depth of statistical evidence on the basis of a hunch. That is, simply, a dumb way to make predictions. At the very least, hopefully you'll learn from Clinton's clear victory in two weeks and start accepting that facts matter a lot more than feelings do.
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Aikhme
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+xAssad is the democratically elected leader of Syria. The US is funding rebels to overthrow an anti-US regime like in many other nations before. This is leading to a potential global conflict between Syria, it's allies (Russia and China) and the Western World. I want the leader of the free world to be willing to fight the real enemies of life as we know it; globalist elites and radical Islam. Not fight wars to supplant heads of state that don't hold a pro-US agenda. No he isn't Democratically elected. The elections are rigged and he is an accused war criminal. There is a sectarian divide in Syria and the Sunnis have a right to have a say and a share in their country and not be repressed by the Shia. I can't believe you said that 11.mvfc. http://www.ohchr.org/Documents/HRBodies/HRCouncil/CoISyria/A-HRC-31-CRP1_en.pdfMeanwhile, you can also feast your eyes on the reports issued in February and June 2016. http://www.gcint.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/OPCW-JIM-Report1-021216.pdfhttp://www.gcint.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/OPCW-JIM-Report1-021216.pdfAnd from the United Nations. http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=54795http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=54752UN Resolution 2118 http://www.un.org/press/en/2013/sc11135.doc.htmUN Resolution 2335 http://www.un.org/press/en/2015/sc12001.doc.htmUN Resolution 2209 http://www.un.org/press/en/2015/sc11810.doc.htmIt's pretty clear who they blame here: https://documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/G16/178/60/PDF/G1617860.pdf?OpenElementand http://www.ohchr.org/Documents/HRBodies/HRCouncil/CoISyria/ResS17_1.pdf
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TheDecider
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+x+xAt the very least, hopefully you'll learn from Clinton's clear victory in two weeks and start accepting that facts matter a lot more than feelings do. Lol, the irony. Seriously, I'm ready to admit there is a slim chance Trump wins (four points would be pretty amazing tho) but your claim that the Republicans will pick up two Senate seats and fifteen house seats is just more proof you don't know what you're talking about. Which two senate seats do you see the Rs picking up? (Or three, if you are ready to recognise that Ayotte holding NH looks like an impossibility).
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TheDecider
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+x+x+x+xAt the very least, hopefully you'll learn from Clinton's clear victory in two weeks and start accepting that facts matter a lot more than feelings do. Lol, the irony. Seriously, I'm ready to admit there is a slim chance Trump wins (four points would be pretty amazing tho) but your claim that the Republicans will pick up two Senate seats and fifteen house seats is just more proof you don't know what you're talking about. Which two senate seats do you see the Rs picking up? (Or three, if you are ready to recognise that Ayotte holding NH looks like an impossibility). The difference between you and me japes is that I don't deign to consider myself an expert on American politics. You're the one trying to use "statistical models" and a sense of superiority to claim you know better than the rest of us :) So you have no fucking idea. Lol. There's a reason I don't get into arguments about general relativity or particle physics. Sometimes it's better to admit that you're out of your depth than to try to talk out of your arse. You don't need to be an expert to see why your predictions are idiotic - you just need to be paying attention. It's not a hard hurdle to clear; and it's a shame you haven't bothered to try.
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paulbagzFC
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+x+xNate Silver is impartial lol? -PB It is a statistical model. You can claim the model is wrong (although how a fish and chip shop owner could argue that is beyond me) but he isn't tampering with the model. It's essentially a poll aggregator. In any case, he's a libertarian, so idk why you think he'd be a Clinton fan. I didn't say anything about him being a Clinton fan, was just merely making the comment that he probably isn't impartial, nothing about his models etc. -PB
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Aikhme
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+x+x+x+x+x+xAt the very least, hopefully you'll learn from Clinton's clear victory in two weeks and start accepting that facts matter a lot more than feelings do. Lol, the irony. Seriously, I'm ready to admit there is a slim chance Trump wins (four points would be pretty amazing tho) but your claim that the Republicans will pick up two Senate seats and fifteen house seats is just more proof you don't know what you're talking about. Which two senate seats do you see the Rs picking up? (Or three, if you are ready to recognise that Ayotte holding NH looks like an impossibility). The difference between you and me japes is that I don't deign to consider myself an expert on American politics. You're the one trying to use "statistical models" and a sense of superiority to claim you know better than the rest of us :) So you have no fucking idea. Lol. There's a reason I don't get into arguments about general relativity or particle physics. Sometimes it's better to admit that you're out of your depth than to try to talk out of your arse. You don't need to be an expert to see why your predictions are idiotic - you just need to be paying attention. It's not a hard hurdle to clear; and it's a shame you haven't bothered to try. There you go again with your holier than thou attitude. We get it mate, you're a genius. I would welcome both of your detailed assessments of the following about who is better equipped to deal with it. Thank you! http://www.ohchr.org/Documents/HRBodies/HRCouncil/CoISyria/A-HRC-31-CRP1_en.pdfMeanwhile, you can also feast your eyes on the reports issued in February and June 2016. http://www.gcint.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/OPCW-JIM-Report1-021216.pdfhttp://www.gcint.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/OPCW-JIM-Report1-021216.pdfAnd from the United Nations. http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=54795http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=54752UN Resolution 2118 http://www.un.org/press/en/2013/sc11135.doc.htmUN Resolution 2335 http://www.un.org/press/en/2015/sc12001.doc.htmUN Resolution 2209 http://www.un.org/press/en/2015/sc11810.doc.htmIt's pretty clear who they blame here: https://documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/G16/178/60/PDF/G1617860.pdf?OpenElementand http://www.ohchr.org/Documents/HRBodies/HRCouncil/CoISyria/ResS17_1.pdf
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TheDecider
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+x+x+x+x+x+xAt the very least, hopefully you'll learn from Clinton's clear victory in two weeks and start accepting that facts matter a lot more than feelings do. Lol, the irony. Seriously, I'm ready to admit there is a slim chance Trump wins (four points would be pretty amazing tho) but your claim that the Republicans will pick up two Senate seats and fifteen house seats is just more proof you don't know what you're talking about. Which two senate seats do you see the Rs picking up? (Or three, if you are ready to recognise that Ayotte holding NH looks like an impossibility). The difference between you and me japes is that I don't deign to consider myself an expert on American politics. You're the one trying to use "statistical models" and a sense of superiority to claim you know better than the rest of us :) So you have no fucking idea. Lol. There's a reason I don't get into arguments about general relativity or particle physics. Sometimes it's better to admit that you're out of your depth than to try to talk out of your arse. You don't need to be an expert to see why your predictions are idiotic - you just need to be paying attention. It's not a hard hurdle to clear; and it's a shame you haven't bothered to try. There you go again with your holier than thou attitude. We get it mate, you're a genius. I'm not a genius, and I don't need to be. Anyone who has paid any proper attention to this election can see that you have no clue. Your resort to quips and cherry picking facts suggests that you know that too.
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TheDecider
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+x+x+xNate Silver is impartial lol? -PB It is a statistical model. You can claim the model is wrong (although how a fish and chip shop owner could argue that is beyond me) but he isn't tampering with the model. It's essentially a poll aggregator. In any case, he's a libertarian, so idk why you think he'd be a Clinton fan. I didn't say anything about him being a Clinton fan, was just merely making the comment that he probably isn't impartial, nothing about his models etc. -PB What's your point then? No one is impartial - but Nate Silver is not the same thing as Nate Silver's model. The model may be flawed, but statistical models are not "partisan." Take it with a grain of salt, but it's a lot more useful than most election analysis.
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Aikhme
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Stop talking about insignificant polls and let's hear your assessments as to who is better equipped to deal with the menace of International War Crimes.
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grazorblade
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+x+xR: 56 senate seats Trump by 4 points R: 260 house seats R: 33 governor's. At this point you have to be trolling. There is no logical basis for you to assume that the polls are wrong; and, if they are wrong, no reason to assume they are wrong in Clinton's favour rather than wrong in Trump's favour (I.e. if they're off by six points, that might mean this election is a tossup, or it might mean that Clinton actually has a 12 point lead). Essentially, you're ignoring an incredible depth of statistical evidence on the basis of a hunch. That is, simply, a dumb way to make predictions. At the very least, hopefully you'll learn from Clinton's clear victory in two weeks and start accepting that facts matter a lot more than feelings do. easy now a tipping comp is a tipping comp. Everyone is free to put in their predictions.
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grazorblade
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can we keep the tipping comp chilled. Seriously its a tipping comp. Do you get mad if someone tips to beat your team 10 nil? Politics may be more important than sport but tipping is just good fun
Graz
R 48 senate
Pop vote: 9.1 margin to dem
D with 219 house seats
D with 22 Governor mansions
Decider
R to have 48 Senate seats
Clinton to win the Presidency by 6.5 points
D to win 205 house seats
D to hold 20 governor's mansions
MV
R: 56 senate seats
Trump by 4 points
R: 260 house seats
R: 33 governor's
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marconi101
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After this election when this thread dies the sub-forum of ET will go down with it #RIPExtraTime
He was a man of specific quirks. He believed that all meals should be earned through physical effort. He also contended, zealously like a drunk with a political point, that the third dimension would not be possible if it werent for the existence of water.
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adrtho2
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+xAssad is the democratically elected leader of Syria. The US is funding rebels to overthrow an anti-US regime like in many other nations before. This is leading to a potential global conflict between Syria, it's allies (Russia and China) and the Western World. I want the leader of the free world to be willing to fight the real enemies of life as we know it; globalist elites and radical Islam. Not fight wars to supplant heads of state that don't hold a pro-US agenda. he no more democratically elected then Alexander Lukashenko in Belarus.....just because there some type of election, doesn't mean it democratic globalist elites :laugh:
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Aikhme
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adrtho2
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u4486662
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+xStop talking about insignificant polls and let's hear your assessments as to who is better equipped to deal with the menace of International War Crimes. Maybe Americans might want to vote in their own interests and not in the interests of foreigners.
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u4486662
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+x+xAssad is the democratically elected leader of Syria. The US is funding rebels to overthrow an anti-US regime like in many other nations before. This is leading to a potential global conflict between Syria, it's allies (Russia and China) and the Western World. I want the leader of the free world to be willing to fight the real enemies of life as we know it; globalist elites and radical Islam. Not fight wars to supplant heads of state that don't hold a pro-US agenda. he no more democratically elected then Alexander Lukashenko in Belarus..... just because there some type of election, doesn't mean it democraticglobalist elites :laugh: Bernie Sanders says hi.
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adrtho2
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+x+x+xAssad is the democratically elected leader of Syria. The US is funding rebels to overthrow an anti-US regime like in many other nations before. This is leading to a potential global conflict between Syria, it's allies (Russia and China) and the Western World. I want the leader of the free world to be willing to fight the real enemies of life as we know it; globalist elites and radical Islam. Not fight wars to supplant heads of state that don't hold a pro-US agenda. he no more democratically elected then Alexander Lukashenko in Belarus..... just because there some type of election, doesn't mean it democraticglobalist elites :laugh: Bernie Sanders says hi. come on....that not even 0.1% close to what happens in Belarus...Bernie Sanders would have been in jail 10 years , and then shot in back of the head in a unmark grave.....now Bernie Sanders has some power to push DNC left
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adrtho2
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Instead of a poll, let’s start today’s Election Update with some actual votes. According to the estimable Nevada journalist Jon Ralston, Democrats have a 20-percentage-point turnout edge so far based on early and absentee voting in Clark County (home to Las Vegas), Nevada. And they have a 10-point edge in Washoe County (home to Reno). Those early-voting numbers, though, don’t look good for Trump. Democrats are matching their 2012 pace in Clark County, according to Ralston. And they’re beating it in Washoe County, a place where the demographics ought to be relatively Trump-friendly. If Clinton is pulling in her marginal voters and Trump isn’t getting his, things could go from bad to worse for the GOP. But Democratic numbers aren’t all that good in Iowa or Ohio, where Clinton has underperformed Obama in polls. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-trump-may-depress-republican-turnout-spelling-disaster-for-the-gop/
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Aikhme
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+x+xStop talking about insignificant polls and let's hear your assessments as to who is better equipped to deal with the menace of International War Crimes. Maybe Americans might want to vote in their own interests and not in the interests of foreigners. Only problem is, it should be everyone's interest to stop War Crimes. If not, then the world has lost a lot more than mere interest. We have lost our humanity and dignity! Imagine for instance for just looking after your own interest whilst the holocaust is taking place. Do you think it is acceptable to be using Chemical Attacks against hospitals, civilians, women and children? Being a superpower has certain responsibilities. if the USA won't accept those responsibilities, then it is no longer the world power. Russia is!
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u4486662
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+x+x+xStop talking about insignificant polls and let's hear your assessments as to who is better equipped to deal with the menace of International War Crimes. Maybe Americans might want to vote in their own interests and not in the interests of foreigners. Only problem is, it should be everyone's interest to stop War Crimes. If not, then the world has lost a lot more than mere interest. We have lost our humanity and dignity! Imagine for instance for just looking after your own interest whilst the holocaust is taking place. Do you think it is acceptable to be using Chemical Attacks against hospitals, civilians, women and children? Being a superpower has certain responsibilities. if the USA won't accept those responsibilities, then it is no longer the world power. Russia is! There are war crimes and crimes against humanity occurring everywhere. Arguably more in Africa than the middle east. The US can not be responsible for fixing the whole world. Wherever the US stick their nose, it often makes the problem worse. I would argue public beheadings in Saudi Arabia are crimes against humanity. So are their executions of children. Guess which candidate is in bed with the Saudis.............
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Aikhme
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+x+x+x+xStop talking about insignificant polls and let's hear your assessments as to who is better equipped to deal with the menace of International War Crimes. Maybe Americans might want to vote in their own interests and not in the interests of foreigners. Only problem is, it should be everyone's interest to stop War Crimes. If not, then the world has lost a lot more than mere interest. We have lost our humanity and dignity! Imagine for instance for just looking after your own interest whilst the holocaust is taking place. Do you think it is acceptable to be using Chemical Attacks against hospitals, civilians, women and children? Being a superpower has certain responsibilities. if the USA won't accept those responsibilities, then it is no longer the world power. Russia is! There are war crimes and crimes against humanity occurring everywhere. Arguably more in Africa than the middle east. The US can not be responsible for fixing the whole world. Wherever the US stick their nose, it often makes the problem worse. I would argue public beheadings in Saudi Arabia are crimes against humanity. So are their executions of children. Guess which candidate is in bed with the Saudis............. Yes there are war crimes and crimes against humanity occuring in other places. but you can't use that as a pretext to justify the use of Chemical warfare and the displacement of 5.5 million people or the bombing of hospitals. Beheadings in Saudi Arabia are a different matter. That is just a form of capital punishment. it's no different to lethal injection, hanging, or Electric Chair. Can understand being anti Capital Punishment in all circumstances but fighting a war and telling countries how to run their judicial processes is not on no matter how bad it might seem. If we allow the atrocities in Syria to take place without impunity and repercussions, then we are inviting more of the same in the future. there is nothing wrong with being in bed with KSA. It's not our business to be telling everyone how to run their internal affairs, but War crimes are a matter which concerns everyone in accordance with the United nations Charter and UNHCR.
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adrtho2
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adrtho2
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23% of all of Arizona's registered voters have already voted (!).
Turnout rate is 27.3% among Dems , 24.9% among Reps, 15.4% among indies.
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grazorblade
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democrats look stronger than 2012 or even 2008 in most places
the exceptions are ohio and iowa which look much better for R than either of those years
No governor races in ohio or iowa. Being in a good position in north carolina could spill over to the governor race
in the senate ohio and iowa looking good for R could hurt dems in 2 winnable senate seat however they are potentially helped in senate seats arizona colorado florida north carolina and nevada
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Aikhme
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+xAssad is the democratically elected leader of Syria. The US is funding rebels to overthrow an anti-US regime like in many other nations before. This is leading to a potential global conflict between Syria, it's allies (Russia and China) and the Western World. I want the leader of the free world to be willing to fight the real enemies of life as we know it; globalist elites and radical Islam. Not fight wars to supplant heads of state that don't hold a pro-US agenda. I challenge any notion that assad is the democratically elected leader. did they allow the sunnis to vote, or nominate in the election or did they restrict the nominations and struck them off. this is what has caused the arab spring to begin with. Bear in mind, the Arab spring also took hold inside countries which had friendly regimes to the USA, even considered client states of the USA.
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433
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What if, shock horror, some countries aren't ready for democracy? Assad is the only thing standing between the Alawites/Shia/Christian population and the Sunni's who fucking despise them. Any thoughts on this Sammy? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RsBAmJbjNjk
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salmonfc
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I'll admit that I am not informed enough on conflicts in the Middle East to have an opinion on that matter.
For the first time, but certainly not the last, I began to believe that Arsenals moods and fortunes somehow reflected my own. - Hornby
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