^^^^^^

Cheers mate 

So if am am reading this table correctly, both FTA and STV is up almost 50%?

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Bitza

You read it correctly although last year is a bad example.

As I posted on the previous page next rd could be huge.

BR v Melb City FRI ... +100K ... potential to break 125k
Nux v Jets SAT ..... gee wizz hopes 40K after the MV thrashing maybe 50K
Syd v Melb Vic SAT ...  100K ... potential to break 150k
Adel v CCM SUN .....  60K
Perth v WSW SUN .... +100K

versus last years ratings, yes.

Going by your ratings for this years super rugby, which was about 61k avg on foxtel, football was on the same as supet rugby of 60k last season to a 90k after 4 rounds.
 That is a significant improvement and improvement that can't be ignored by foxtel so I  would expect a higher deal than what the ARU get; as we also provide more content than rugby does.

Fox ratings up 46%, where are you Mister Football?

So its like when you sleep with a bunchof really ugly hags and then all of a sudden you bed an 8/10

Its better than you have been getting, but still not the 10 you really want.

He will be here soon comparing his multi billion dollar afl deal to football's deal no doubt.

Even though our ratings are well short of afl, it's funny Mr Afl is usually only on here when the ratings are average or bad for football comparatively speaking to previous seasons. We will probably hear from him once our ratings take a dip. He only cares to rub it in during the bad times. It's stock standard behaviour.

What are the AFL ratings generally? 

Our average is about 92K today...

From Wookie's site the following are the Fox average rating for the AFL and NRL

AFL over 198 season round matches Fox average ratings is 189, 606

NRL over 192 season round matches Fox average ratings is 233, 641.

If we go as many suspect to a 12 team 3 rounds Football will also have 198 season round matches.

Footballs media is but a fraction of the AFL and NRL ... its interesting how close we actually are especially to the AFL average ..

Ok Ive done a few things here.



which gives me this graph



What i think you wanted was something like this



Now I know you asked for matches or rounds, but the fact is the applicable rounds change, not least when the comp stopped for the Asian Cup. Ive matched the HAL Rounds up to the various BBL/AFL seasons as well as the start of the HAL season, and the gap between the BBL and NAB Cup starting so you can see the effect these may be having on the ratings in question.

The percentage drop isnt cumulative, so it drops by 21% of the original average, then gains 4% of the second average, then drops 7% on that average and then 14% off the fourth average. So its not 14% off the original average at the end. Hopefully that makes sense. The averages and % change dont include 2016-17 - but they are used to arrive at the predicted averages during those periods.

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Wookie

Will have a good look when I get home .... but thanks heaps especially for the last spreadsheet with the A-League Rating V other sports... Also appreciate the round by round average chart it will be interesting to see this by seasons end.

So happy there someone with the interest, skills and time to create this base of data... again many thanks.

+1 Wookie, amazing work. Know there are plenty of us here that are enjoying your graphs. Please keep on posting them as the season goes on.

Dont forget that Rugby only what got what it ended up with due to a somewhat spirited bidding process in the UK. or their rights would be lower. No Australian league has really been able to get that kind of competitive bidding going in overseas markets.

That said, there are fewer rounds of super rugby than there are A-league, and all of the A-leagues fixtures are shown into Australian markets are a decent viewing time - Super games are coming from here, there and everywhere and at times not necessarily suited to the key viewing markets on the Australian Eastern seaboard.

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Wookie

I think you are right the next media deal will be decided IMO on the number of games on offer and what the average forecast ratings will be and arguably add a bit to keep Optus out.

If we assume 12 teams, 3 rounds i.e 198 season games, the same number as the AFL, add say another 6 key FFA Cup matches.

So lets say for want of a better number 200 season games + finals + ACL if they are under FFA control but I am not sure.

If the ratings can average between 70 & 75 K especially with Fox holding no other summer sport.... and the logic of the last media deal was a FTA channel would grow Fox numbers was the logic SBS failed in this but me thinks a commercial FTA would appeal to a broader audience.

Using the AFL 198 games @ and average of 190K.... a similar number of games with an average after a FTA effect of say 80K would IMO get a reasonable offer. 

The AFL get 420 million for say 200 games so 2.1 million per game.... if FFA was to receive $ 500, 000 per game thats 100 million , @ $ 400, 000 per game its 80 million.... at 80 million its  roughly 19% of the AFL deal... at 100 million its roughly 23% of the AFL deal... at 60 million its roughly 14% of the AFL deal... 80K / 190K using the Fox average is 42% of the Fox average with the FTA bit unknown in both ratings and price.

Would love to be in the team negotiating this deal... again thanks heaps for your work...

Theres a couple of bits missing  - The NAB Cup is also included in the AFL deal, and the AFL finals are also very high rating affairs for Foxtel, even without the Grand Final. Its about 220 games all up. Fox also gaimed the rights to show games via laptops and pcs in Australia for the first time ever starting next season. Theres also the fact that during the season Foxfooty is consistently one of, if not, the top rating channel on Foxtel.

I think you'll find ACL matches coming under the AFCs banner and rights.

The other side of this is possible BBL season expansion in 2018, and more than one broadcaster will be keeping their eye on that too.

Im predicting a rise to somewhere between $65 to $80 million a year, and expect it to be closer to $65 million than $80 million.

80 million should be minimum. Especially the way in which Gallop was talking up the deal in early days. 100 million was touted as the likely target. I know its bit talk but if you aren't going to back up then that's really disappointing. Especially considering the growth in the early stages of this season. I would be happy with 80. 

@ the select few

I think we all hope for close to $100m and at least $80m and there was some big talk early on. I would say the clubs seem to be talking the number down towards the mid 60's though

with a-league rights standalone, with 12 teams and the continued ratings this year as well as everything else remaining even, I would argue $70 million should be a more than reasonable target

With the number of players involved, I would expect 80. If it's Fox that wins the rights, you could probably expect less than 80. They have spent a lot of money on sports rights and I don't they the return is coming back as they expected.

Me thinks your reasonably close my brain says X and my heart says Y.

I think, the unknown is the FTA amount, its considerable with both the AFL and NRL.... a lot will depend on how much 7 / 9 or 10 will pay.

I think FFA realise they may have to give up some revenue in the short term to build a far broader base.... the alternative is to go for a big cash grab with Optus and hope for a FTA partner ... the other unknown is BeIn Sport and Optus both have expressed an interest.

A client of mine who runs a small media company that specialises in two general areas, first web watching for certain subjects and has contracts with all the stations and secondly in designing web media applications.... he is like me a Mariner fan ... he talks daily to producers and technicians at all the stations .... he tells me Football has changed that Netflicks has the FTA very worried and Football is not seen as Soccer anymore but more broadly as live sport..... live sport is seen by the FTA stations as their last battleground and from what he says the FTA's don't want Football on either Optus or BeIn sport ... so how much Optus oe BeIn sport would pay or how much would the FTA's pay to keep it away from them is unknown.

As I said before, having been involved myself in many negotiations over business valuations I would love to be in the FFA team... my understanding Gallop approached Melbourne City for help roughly 15 months ago and they provided the names and details of the team that did the EPL deal... so Gallop seems to have a decent team behind him....

Can't be to far away me thinks by February ...

I'd love the new TV deal to be worth $80m-$100m per year, that'd be huge!
But now knowing that the previous $40m pa deal was also including the Socceroos and the Asian Cup rights, we can safely assume that those previous A-league rights were only worth $30m-$35m per year at best. So if we're looking to get a 100% uplift, like many in the media and from the FFA have mentioned in the last 12-18 months, we're probably looking at the $65m-$70m range IMO. Like I said, initially I was expecting more, but now knowing that we're not comparing apples v apples, I realise that we might not get much more than that.
Having said that, if our game signed a $250m-$300m deal for 4 years, with good FTA exposure, within the next 2 months I'd be very happy.
That's roughly what the AFL and NRL signed 3-4 TV deals ago, which was 15 or so years ago, which is probably where we're at in the scheme of things. Yes we need the money, but we also need the FTA exposure to be able to grow the game. And if we get this sort of money, we can expand the competition, more teams, more rounds, we can pay the women more money, and keep attracting better quality foreigners to the A-league, which helps the local players, and helps the overall quality of the product improve.

Wookie

Had a good look at those spreadsheets last night .... just what I wanted ... I honestly don't know how to thank you ... but many on this site and copied to others read your stuff.. 

Again thanks and if your ever up the Coast we must have a beer, coffee, or whatever ... 

I think between you and assanchez the next media deal is well explained ... a real interesting unknown for the next deal is how must interest Optus and BeIn sport have and how much the FTA stations and Fox as a group want too keep Optus and BeIn sport away from broadcasting in Australia... 

Cheers

It's interesting That O'Rourke has highlighted the importance of Telcos in future broadcasting.
If FTA is scared of the impact of the likes of Netflix,the last thing they want is for those subscription players to land deals with mainstream sports.
If FFA can talk up growth of football,with expansion providing more games,a big number for the next media deal is still possible.It could be a case of not just what HAL is worth but what it is worth not to lose market share to a new player.Shall we call it block value.
Oil companies have been doing this for decades.

Been thinking the same thats a very astute observation... 

Is it just me, or did Midfielder just stop fapping himself for long enough to ask The Wookie out on a date?

Ew

I think it's just you Footballer 😉

Any ratings for last night?

They were GOOD..


SBS had a big night I heard on radio this morning

Taking a while for the numbers to come through. Hope they are worth the wait.