Data will always be misinterpreted by those who want to push an agenda. Rather things out in the open that's all.

I work in data and analysis also. The difference is I dont analyse data independently of its meaning. Its not enough to draw a straight line between two points and make predictions based on growth patterns. Every single instance of an outbreak we have seen globally has been a wave pattern. Yet epidemiologists continue to provide predictions based on linear and indefinite growth. They also work with state averages independent of geographical and social trends. They put a lot of meaning in the r figure which is a product of the data instead of a driver of it

In fact when you have a look at the modelling they do release and read the assumptions and limitations, you'd laugh your ass off. The modelling is used for no reason other than to support the recommendations. Its the classic start with the answer then look for information to support it. They also write their own narrative and make definitive conclusions before they even see the data, and declare success regularly based on specious reasoning

Every model in Australia has been radically wrong. Not just a little bit. Not by a reasonable amount. But completely and utterly wrong. Just like how they predicted a surge of cases when kids went back to school. I mean kids were in a bubble during the 6-7 week long break when this thing was running rampant. Kids go to school, spread diseases, and then come home and kill their grand parents

I've put my predictions based on how I see things on the forum time and time again. Like how we wouldn't see 6000 cases in October in NSW or how we would see 25k-40k cases a day when we open up despite over 90% vaccinations. I havent been 100% right, but a hell of a lot closer than the leading experts. And I dont have a break down of the data like they do. Just the snippets published here or there. Nor do I have any medical degrees either

If you're in the data game then you of all people should understand the importance of using the data to reach a conclusion. No matter what your wants, needs, hidden agendas, biases, prejudices are, or past claims. Whatever the data says, thats what you go with. If I saw evidence that face masks made a difference, even today, I would be asking for wide spread face mask usage

Australia taking a statistical approach to this virus instead of using infectious disease experts and behavioural scientists has been its biggest weakness

no politics associated with this formula change, its all about the science (and mid terms)

‘We Are Not There Yet’: As States Drop Mask Rules, the C.D.C. Stands Firm
Feb. 9, 2022
C.D.C. Resists Pressure to Change Guidance on Masks - The New York Times (nytimes.com)




https://twitter.com/covid_clarity/status/1498360349975842821/photo/1

CDC eases masking recommendations for 70% of country, including inside schools

The majority of the country would now be considered low-to-medium risk.

26 February 2022

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/cdc-eases-masking-recommendations-70-country-including-inside/story?id=83111596

That was the literal point I was making. Only one of us believes face masks on buses is the only thing keeping old people alive

I'll go with the experts on this one

As will hopefully a lot of people in Australia. No sense in a situation where too many people are questioning or second guessing health advice

Really highlights the importance of communicating only critical advice thats fundamental to the success of controlling the outbreak and keeping vulnerable people safe. Right now in Australia the risk of entering public transport is the same high risk setting as entering a hospital or aged care facility, for all forms, all regions, right across Australia

Wasnt the case for NSW in June 2021, or a lot of the non Victoria parts of the country. But the pandemic can turn overnight and the rules are always different. Right now public transport is just too dangerous. As for when this is no longer the case, given the total lack of transparency, we'll just have to wait for the experts to tell us when buses are safe again

Is the COVID over now ?? 

Had a 2 day head cold and a bit of fever. 
Kind of like a bad hangover. 
Feel much better now. 


Lucky I had my 18 vaccines recently to help me get through this

Lol

I cant find the article anymore but the CHO from Queensland said along the lines that restrictions by law is something he takes seriously and will never be implemented unless there was a link to hospitalisations. Yet there are laws in place today prohibiting anybody in Queensland from using public transport without wearing a mask. No explanation. No review. No end date

Expert epidemiologists have already released their "winter surge" models as I predicted so expect face masks indoors soon until at least October

SA's new premier said on day 1 he's going to back health advice so we know what that means for them also

If there was a proven link between covid deaths and smoking, and health officials were able to make smoking illegal during a wave. I can guarentee you that "wave" will never end and there will never be a time where health officials say "its OK to smoke again". There is too much self interest tied up in these health restrictions that have gone beyond just preventing Covid

This is a health response, not a Covid response. And as long as health officials are running the country it will never be over. Not this year, not the next either

Cases increasing. 1000s of Australians still being hospitalised by it even before the increase, many still in ICU. COVID is far from over. Pretty simple.

Thats right. This is a long term problem for hospitals and aged care facilities. It wont be over today, tomorrow, next month, or even next year

So why are response teams continuing to target public transport and schools? Why are they targeting pubs, clubs, singing and dancing? Why are they insistent on wearing people down with pointless B Grade restrictions to ensure compliance levels are next to nothing when there is a large scale problem?

Today the SA premier shut down talks of ending school a week early. Why were there talks of any seriousness worth publicly acknowledging?

There arent thousands of people in hospital. There is over 1000 people in hospital. Significantly less than the outbreak at the end of last year. As are case numbers and that was before they were fudged with rubbish RAT data

Nothing is going to change after this mass panic just like nothing changed before the last one or the one after. This new wave of restrictions doesnt end the problem. When we get to October and people can finally go outside without wearing a mask it wont be for the last time

We have reached a stage where the damage done by the response is worse than the damage by not having a response (outside of hospitals and aged care). It has accomplished absolutely nothing of substance. Only fact less speculation stemming from predictions that have been way off

Looks like SA has ben brought into line with interstate at least.
Masks to be gone April 14 (we shall see aha)

Channel 7 mentions you don't have to wear them at Adelaide Oval anymore (being outdoors)
Doesn't mention Hindmarsh but going to assume it will apply there too and Channel 7 just don't wanna mention soccer aha.

as long as the vaccination requirement is kept at these venues, mask restrictions may be relaxed

Face masks arent going in SA, they are just planning on relaxing them. At a minimum you'll most likely still need them on all forms of public / shared transport

Then there are the specifics that states want, such as Victoria has them for primary schools, retail / hospitality workers. SA will have them for entering / exiting venues
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-25/sa-changes-covid-close-contact-and-isolation-rules/100939052

There is still a strong push by health officials to get them back for all indoors during winter so it will be a short lived reprieve either way

BTW: Today is day 600 of consecutive face mask laws for all of Victoria. I dont mean hospitals, aged care or the federal airport directive (which is indefinite). I mean some kind of law prohibiting the general public from moving about or working without a mask. At best it has been public transport, at worst it has been for all places outside of your immediate household. Has to be a global record and its unlikely we're even halfway

It's going to be quite an interesting experiment coming up in SA (and I think most other local jurisdictions) this winter. Hope it goes well but it's a departure from what for the most part has been a successful strategy (no not talking about COVID zero strategies, I'm talking about efforts to reduce hospitalisations and deaths). 

What? Who wears a mask? 

In Victoria:
You must wear a mask indoors in the following settings, unless an exemption applies:
. on public transport, in taxis and rideshare, on planes, and indoors at an airport
. working or visiting hospitals, and indoor areas at care facilities
. working in hospitality, retail and the court system
. working at justice and correctional facilities
. for students in year 3 or above at primary school, and workers at early childhood centres and primary schools (masks can be removed in secondary school)
. working indoors at an event with more than 30,000 people attending
. if you have COVID-19 or are a close contact and you’re leaving home

Not sure if they are still required for meat processing as that was one of the industries targeted a while ago

By the way: Where are those cases everybody was predicting? Even with cases inflated by RAT data (donald duck and mickey mouse) they are significantly lower than what modelling predicted

The predictions and models are so embarrassingly wrong that its puzzling why they are being used to impose laws and impact on day to day life. Australia's vaccination has long put it in a good position to move to a reactive strategy like the rest of the world instead of a sensationalised predictive one. Can't get restrictions imposed that way unfortunately

So nobody in an office, eating out, bars, nightclubs or shopping...or basically most things really. 

I wore a mask on a plane a few weeks ago, that's only time I can remember in a month or two. Maybe in an uber too

Thats right. So explain to me why its illegal to not wear a mask in these situations in the scheme of things. Explain how buses, primary schools and just the workers in hospitality wearing masks is what is keeping old people alive

This isnt a recommendation, it is legislation. And it might not impact you, but that doesn't mean it isnt a problem

The other things you mentioned will come this winter. Epidemiologists have already predicted it

Every time there is a disaster or tragedy people turn to Nostradamus to see if the great purple fire breathing dragon on the mountain side sketching the landscape relates to it. And to be honest I find it much much more credible than epidemiologists declaring there will be a deadly uncontrollable wave, 2 weeks later predicting we are in one, rolling out a few tokenistic face mask laws, and then patting themselves on the back for their success

Here are a few facts:
1/ We have reached the limits of our vaccine coverage
2/ Due to timing and logistics there will always be a 3-4 month lag in our booster program
3/ This will not be over this year, and it will not be over next year, and maybe even not the year after

The current system means Australia is going to be a face mask country and it is illegal for primary school kids to get an education without wearing them, and illegal to use public transport without them, and illegal for some workers to not wear them, and the pub / clubs / events industry are constantly going to be shut down

Once Australia reaches a stage where it can no longer justify B grade restrictions as part of its response then we have moved past our 2020 response. Until then its easy to see why the public has lost faith

It's illegal to swear as well. Seriously, who cares? Nobody wears a mask anywhere

I like that people have to wear them on a plane. Don't have filthy pricks coughing all over me. I haven't had a cold for two years touch wood

Do u have kids? I have two little ones. Nobody seems to give a fuck. If I was a teacher I'd maybe want the filthy little farkers to not putting snot all over me. 

Thats right. It will become one of those rules that nobody follows so where is the point in that. I'd argue most of the restrictions in place have overstayed their welcome which means if we ever have a real outbreak we're screwed. Having the majority of the population ignoring a national health directive is not a good thing

As for schools - education behind a face mask is entirely inefficient. Why is your concern kids might spread the virus greater than your concern that 3 years of every child's education is nullified? If teacher's dont want to get sick then they should resign and move into one of those careers where its impossible to catch Covid

This rolling over of restrictions from month to month might be a barrel of laughs for all involved but it is inefficient and unsustainable. This is a 5 to 10 year problem at its shortest. Sooner or later states will start to draft legislation to manage this virus as an ongoing safety issue like seatbelts or airbags. The way hospitals and aged care facilities operate will change forever. And I'd be willing to bet health officials will staple to that their pointless face mask laws we have had to endure simply because there wasn't enough resistance and the ease in which they were able to get them across the line

I'm not sure I agree with your attitude that its OK because people can just pick and choose what laws to follow anyhow

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/mask-mandate-to-be-dropped-in-south-australia-as-qr-codes-mothballed/ar-AAW7ca3


Lol. So public transport declared high risk to get mask laws over the line, but declared low risk to do away with QR codes

Man Ray: Does public transport meet contact definition rules?
Patrick: No
Man Ray: Does public transport meet high risk rules for QR codes?
Patrick: No
Man Ray: Then public transport can't be high risk
Patrick: That makes sense
Man Ray: Then we shouldn't be fining people for using public transport without wearing a mask
Patrick: We need mask laws on public transport otherwise hospital systems will be overrun because its a high risk setting

How feasible contact tracing is in a setting has no bearing on how high risk a setting is regarding infection 🙄  It's not that complicated my friend.

That still doesnt explain why public transport is being declared a high risk setting alongside aged care and hospitals, but nothing else is. Like seriously, open work place, private gatherings of hundreds, weddings, funerals, major events - but you get a fine if you go on a bus without a mask

John Smith could come back into this thread and type the single line of "we shouldnt have mask laws on public transport" and suddenly he and most of this forum will be 1 - 1

Why are you defending something so laughable?

I past they brought mask rules onto the Epping train line thirty years ago. 

*wish not past

Thats right. Face masks arent anything new. Asian countries use them all the time on public transport, supermarkets, and even indoors when they are unwell. Australia doesnt

This is just a means to force by law what other countries do by choice. The difference is in other countries they dont work on the assumption that every single person in the country is sick, therefore every single person at all times needs to wear a mask in these specific situations

The ferocity and aggression in which health officials have tried to mandate masks, and continue to, is astonishing

Oh, and where were these 10,000 - 20,000 cases that these psychics predicted SA were going to get that justified keeping laws in place? Wow, wouldn't you believe it another failed prediction but that didnt stop a real impact on the public. Hasn't stopped a new wave of predictions by epidemiologists screaming for more mask laws

Australia failed to adopt the national framework of keep the vulnerable safe and treat this like any other infectious disease. Now we're stuck with a hybrid hysterical approach of restrictions waves based on random predictions, mixed with obvious self interest, and have to endure it until this virus is over. And that's only a few more weeks right?

What's the problem with it? Is it such a massive issue?

I hate the government and overreach with our nanny state but I just don't see a problem here. It's hygenic. 
You have three seats side by side with three facing on a train in one arrangement that are chockas in peak hour. If one has covid or a cold theres a chance you all will by end of the trip