Coronavirus Megathread


Coronavirus Megathread

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rusty
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I cant believe they doubled Jobseeker allowance.   Why not increase it 30% or raise rent assistance to cover basics like rent, food, energy etc, and give the balance to small business who really need it.  Centrelink servers have already crashed as hundreds of thousands of workers realise they can earn a near equivalent amount of money watching coronavirus updates on TV and order Uber eats for lunch rather than risking catching coronavirus.  And where will that income go anyway?  Uber, Netflix, porn site subscriptions, Amazon, rented Apple movies, gaming consoles, basically large American corporations.  Its not just consumers who are panic buying. 
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https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Coronavirus cases and death toll growth rate clearly slowly in Italy, as expected.  It takes about 2 weeks for social distancing policies to kick in, due to the lag between catching the virus (incubation typically 2-14 days), therefore the current deaths and newly diagnosed most likely caught the virus in previous weeks.  I’d expect there to be a sudden fall in diagnoses and deaths within the next couple weeks almost tapering to current South Korea levels, provided social distancing policies remain intact.  I’d expect to see Australia fare much better, likely the short term death rate will be hundreds rather than thousands, again contingent on social distancing and hand washing. Over the longer trajectory thousands will lose their lives but it wont be an apocalypse like the media and our bed wetting politicians are predicting. The real war is the cost to the economy and whether we can bounce back or remain in a permanent state of fear.

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What'll really piss me off is if, when this is all over, western nations go back to getting on their knees for China. Because if there's anything the last 6 months has shown us, it's that we should steer away from kowtowing to them just for the $$$. If they had done the right thing and been transparent about COVID-19 early (as I assume most western nations would be) then we wouldn't be in this mess. 

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Captain Haddock - 23 Mar 2020 1:51 PM
What'll really piss me off is if, when this is all over, western nations go back to getting on their knees for China. Because if there's anything the last 6 months has shown us, it's that we should steer away from kowtowing to them just for the $$$. If they had done the right thing and been transparent about COVID-19 early (as I assume most western nations would be) then we wouldn't be in this mess. 

Fucking spot on.

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rusty - 23 Mar 2020 1:28 PM
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Coronavirus cases and death toll growth rate clearly slowly in Italy, as expected.  It takes about 2 weeks for social distancing policies to kick in, due to the lag between catching the virus (incubation typically 2-14 days), therefore the current deaths and newly diagnosed most likely caught the virus in previous weeks.  I’d expect there to be a sudden fall in diagnoses and deaths within the next couple weeks almost tapering to current South Korea levels, provided social distancing policies remain intact.  I’d expect to see Australia fare much better, likely the short term death rate will be hundreds rather than thousands, again contingent on social distancing and hand washing. Over the longer trajectory thousands will lose their lives but it wont be an apocalypse like the media and our bed wetting politicians are predicting. The real war is the cost to the economy and whether we can bounce back or remain in a permanent state of fear.

I've not read into it but South Korea pulled the handbrake on this. I imagine they shut everything down. Their cases rose quickly to 7500 over a matter of days but they've only had another 1500 in around 14 days since then. 

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I just want them to shut my work already. I'm staying at home for 2 weeks with my wife and her father since they have bad immune systems. Used my sick leave for the first week, and annual leave for the second week. That two weeks finishes for me next Tuesday, and I'll either have to go back to work (and somehow find a place to live until this whole thing is over, so who knows how long), or ask work to give me short notice annual leave again until it runs out (and hope it gets shut by the time that finishes), or quit my job and hopefully that allows me to become eligible for the double NewStart and access to Super.
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johnszasz - 23 Mar 2020 6:33 PM
rusty - 23 Mar 2020 1:28 PM

I've not read into it but South Korea pulled the handbrake on this. I imagine they shut everything down. Their cases rose quickly to 7500 over a matter of days but they've only had another 1500 in around 14 days since then. 

No SK just exercised social distancing, mass testing and they all wear masks.  Commerce is still open as is their airport.    They basically test anyone with symptoms, positive cases are forced into quarantine and treated with viral and anti viral medications (the same ones we’re “trialling”).   Being an Asian country they seem to be much better prepared for epidemics than we are, our approach seems to be running around changing policy everyday while not actually enforcing any of it.  I’d say as of right now there are potentially tens of thousands of undiagnosed cases just floating around our neighbourhoods and parks, about to become the next wave of hospital visits.

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NicCarBel - 23 Mar 2020 6:48 PM
I just want them to shut my work already. I'm staying at home for 2 weeks with my wife and her father since they have bad immune systems. Used my sick leave for the first week, and annual leave for the second week. That two weeks finishes for me next Tuesday, and I'll either have to go back to work (and somehow find a place to live until this whole thing is over, so who knows how long), or ask work to give me short notice annual leave again until it runs out (and hope it gets shut by the time that finishes), or quit my job and hopefully that allows me to become eligible for the double NewStart and access to Super.

Apparently they’re not requesting P45s (separation from employment certificate) so if you register online I assume you can select an option like ‘stood down’ as the reason and you’ll become eligible.  

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rusty - 23 Mar 2020 7:28 PM
johnszasz - 23 Mar 2020 6:33 PM

No SK just exercised social distancing, mass testing and they all wear masks.  Commerce is still open as is their airport.    They basically test anyone with symptoms, positive cases are forced into quarantine and treated with viral and anti viral medications (the same ones we’re “trialling”).   Being an Asian country they seem to be much better prepared for epidemics than we are, our approach seems to be running around changing policy everyday while not actually enforcing any of it.  I’d say as of right now there are potentially tens of thousands of undiagnosed cases just floating around our neighbourhoods and parks, about to become the next wave of hospital visits.

This is what I worry about. We aren't exercising social distancing. I think our testing has been pretty good but not as aggressive as SK. They were better prepared due to SARS as is HK and Singapore.
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Burztur - 23 Mar 2020 8:27 PM
rusty - 23 Mar 2020 7:28 PM

This is what I worry about. We aren't exercising social distancing. I think our testing has been pretty good but not as aggressive as SK. They were better prepared due to SARS as is HK and Singapore.

I imagine some countries besides China have temperature measuring checkpoints? It's very true a lot of people stikk aren't distancing. I left my apartment for the first time in 3 days and it felt a bit odd. Many people's brains will transform in this period of isolation and disconnection. 

I don't think Australia has the equipment or capacity to conduct public checks save the testing stations people can go to. I'm more thinking of having officials go to shopping centres. If they can set up a semi trailer for certain cancer tests then surely some kind of temperature measuring thing could work? 
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johnszasz - 23 Mar 2020 8:32 PM
Burztur - 23 Mar 2020 8:27 PM

I imagine some countries besides China have temperature measuring checkpoints? It's very true a lot of people stikk aren't distancing. I left my apartment for the first time in 3 days and it felt a bit odd. Many people's brains will transform in this period of isolation and disconnection. 

I don't think Australia has the equipment or capacity to conduct public checks save the testing stations people can go to. I'm more thinking of having officials go to shopping centres. If they can set up a semi trailer for certain cancer tests then surely some kind of temperature measuring thing could work? 

We have the testing stations at various hospitals but the current protocol is to book at time with your GP first and they will triage whether there is a need for you to be tested or not. They widened the testing criteria over the weekend to include all medical staff and not just those from overseas or have contacted a confirmed case. 

The semi trailer thing might work since we have developed a test which can screen people in around 15 mins now. That’s a game changer but not sure when that can be properly rolled out. There are apparently shortages in PPE equipment as well.

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rusty - 22 Mar 2020 3:37 PM
Is it worth risking economic catastrophe that could linger for decades in order to save the lives of 80 year olds who are likely to die in the next decade or two anyway?  Youngish people are mostly impervious to this disease, why cant they be the ones to expose to it to build up herd immunity, while those most at at risk self isolate?  Sure the health system will suffer and there will be many deaths, however is that short term pain in just one sector of society not as bad as allowing millions of people and businesses to lose their jobs and plunging the country into long term perhaps irrecoverable economic position?  They knew about the devastating effects of the Spanish flu in 1918 but they kept it under wraps because the priority was winning the war effort, it may be so that governments will need to prioritise the economy and the interests of broader society above savings life.  It takes lives to save lives sorta thing.

Have. To agree

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Burztur - 23 Mar 2020 9:35 PM
johnszasz - 23 Mar 2020 8:32 PM

We have the testing stations at various hospitals but the current protocol is to book at time with your GP first and they will triage whether there is a need for you to be tested or not. They widened the testing criteria over the weekend to include all medical staff and not just those from overseas or have contacted a confirmed case. 

The semi trailer thing might work since we have developed a test which can screen people in around 15 mins now. That’s a game changer but not sure when that can be properly rolled out. There are apparently shortages in PPE equipment as well.

Eh, yes and no. In Canberra (initially, until before this weekend, at least), they have only been testing IF you have been overseas/travelled interstate AND show symptoms. Considering the cases here have jumped up like 1000% over this weekend, that is going to have to change. I don't believe that if the cases have gone up that much in a place like Canberra in the space of 3 days, that there ISN'T community transition.
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NicCarBel - 23 Mar 2020 10:00 PM
Burztur - 23 Mar 2020 9:35 PM

Eh, yes and no. In Canberra (initially, until before this weekend, at least), they have only been testing IF you have been overseas/travelled interstate AND show symptoms. Considering the cases here have jumped up like 1000% over this weekend, that is going to have to change. I don't believe that if the cases have gone up that much in a place like Canberra in the space of 3 days, that there ISN'T community transition.

The problem is most people with it are asymptomatic and they're not being tested.  I understand why and it's simply impossible to test everyone BUT that's why this thing won't slow down anytime soon despite Rusty's 'feelings' that we will.

Even if it takes only 5 days to show symptoms.  Think how many people you've mixed with over those 5 days before you even knew you had it.

The US's cases are set to explode in the next couple of days.  Already New York has more cases then most countries. 

Australia is tracking along exactly like Italy, France and Spain just 2 or 3 weeks behind.  We're next.




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Captain Haddock - 23 Mar 2020 1:51 PM
What'll really piss me off is if, when this is all over, western nations go back to getting on their knees for China. Because if there's anything the last 6 months has shown us, it's that we should steer away from kowtowing to them just for the $$$. If they had done the right thing and been transparent about COVID-19 early (as I assume most western nations would be) then we wouldn't be in this mess. 

It's Australian businessmen that decide to source the products from China, it's Australian farmers that sell their land to Chinese buyers, it's Australian consumers that 'value' cheaper goods.  We're all to blame.  The government has little to nought to do with our dependence on China. 

Personally I doubt China coming clean quicker would have delayed this thing.  The problem is that people carry this for days and mix with hundreds of people before they get sick.  Even if China fronted up quicker I doubt it would have made a big difference.  It may of delayed it it but it wouldn't have stopped it. 


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dirkvanadidas - 23 Mar 2020 9:52 PM
rusty - 22 Mar 2020 3:37 PM

Have. To agree

Yep.  Got it.  Money is more important than lives.

Cool.


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Wife came home pretty upset, i can't understand why they place dentistry in the same bracket as fucking hairdressers.

She's been told they could close at any minute without pay, most likely with the next stage. they have enough medical supplies including masks and gowns for 6 months and have already changed to only seeing patients with pain or Emergencies. It makes no sense to shut dentists, it pushes their emergency and pain patients into hospital system which is going to be under major pressure already... how does that make any sense?
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Munrubenmuz - 23 Mar 2020 10:05 PM
NicCarBel - 23 Mar 2020 10:00 PM

The problem is most people with it are asymptomatic and they're not being tested.  I understand why and it's simply impossible to test everyone BUT that's why this thing won't slow down anytime soon despite Rusty's 'feelings' that we will.

Even if it takes only 5 days to show symptoms.  Think how many people you've mixed with over those 5 days before you even knew you had it.

The US's cases are set to explode in the next couple of days.  Already New York has more cases then most countries. 

Australia is tracking along exactly like Italy, France and Spain just 2 or 3 weeks behind.  We're next.


Agree with both Nic and Muz. Hope we're wrong about being 2-3 weeks behind Italy though but trend is that way.
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This is going to be an unpopular opinion, but one good thing I hope that comes out of all this is when it's over, is that they stop gutting the healthcare system and nationalise it again with proper funding.

Fark off private hospitals and let the government run them again.

Because in crisis like this, it's always the government that has to step up to the plate, while the corporations ask for hand outs...just look at the disaster unfolding in the US.

The Police and Fire department are not privately run, and there is no reason why the Healthcare system should be either.
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Munrubenmuz - 23 Mar 2020 10:13 PM
Captain Haddock - 23 Mar 2020 1:51 PM

Blame the free market Cap.  It's Australian businessmen that decide to source the products from China, it's Australian farmers that sell their land to Chinese buyers, it's Australian consumers that 'value' cheaper goods.  We're all to blame.  The government has little to nought to do with our dependence on China. 

Personally I doubt China coming clean quicker would have delayed this thing.  The problem is that people carry this for days and mix with hundreds of people before they get sick.  Even if China fronted up quicker I doubt it would have made a big difference.  It may of delayed it it but it wouldn't have stopped it. 

Your on the money there Muz re "we're to blame" so much being sourced from China.
My Industry like many others had no choice sourcing from them for the "consumers" want "cheaper" retail price yet complain about quality in general (depending on product) lol........
What I do like about this unfortunate circumstance looking ahead many companies will look to reset their "sourcing" hopefully.
Our company started doing this 2yrs ago for China's pricing is going UP, 1 large supplier of ours (a Korean owned company who moved his factory to China years ago) had bought land to re locate to Vietnam last year building his new plant.
Anyway as much as I'd like to hold China accountable what has occured I'm more concerned of fellow Australians health, no matter old/young.
Just hope we get this under control sooner rather than later.



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Munrubenmuz - 23 Mar 2020 10:13 PM
Captain Haddock - 23 Mar 2020 1:51 PM

Blame the free market Cap.  It's Australian businessmen that decide to source the products from China, it's Australian farmers that sell their land to Chinese buyers, it's Australian consumers that 'value' cheaper goods.  We're all to blame.  The government has little to nought to do with our dependence on China. 

Personally I doubt China coming clean quicker would have delayed this thing.  The problem is that people carry this for days and mix with hundreds of people before they get sick.  Even if China fronted up quicker I doubt it would have made a big difference.  It may of delayed it it but it wouldn't have stopped it. 

This is what frustrates me, the more I think about it. The same people who artificially created the current toilet paper shortage (which actually turned out to be a self-fulfilling prophecy) will be the ones who go "Hey- cheap stuff!" and reward the country who are responsible for this mess we're in right now. Because if their government had reported it sooner and not suppressed the whistleblowers, we could've introduced restrictions upon return travellers from China here and abroad. If they'd alerted to this late last year then we could've made it mandatory for all return travellers from China to go into 14-day isolation, greatly reducing cases worldwide and making it far easier for government health systems to contain the spread. Yet their government time and time again demonstrates that they are completely ruthless and will even use their own citizens as collateral if it gives them a better chance at maintaining economic power (and let's face it, this is why they tried to be sneaky about COVID-19, because they worried it'd temporarily hurt their economy). They knew what would happen if the epidemic spread. They saw it happen right in front of them. Yet they were either:

a) Naive, or
b) Didn't give a shit about the lives it would take, the jobs it would cost and how it would tank the economy, as long as they could get a head-start on the rest of the world and get "back to normal" before everybody else

I'm fortunate because I am self-employed, have a B2B client-base and don't really work with clients from the industries most affected like tourism or hospitality. But the world has been brought to a standstill that could've easily been avoided in this day and age because China were negligent. They knew what would happen, but decided to keep it under wraps because they thought they could get an advantage out of it. Coupled with the Hong Kong protests, surely this last 6 months has made it very clear the kind of people we're dealing with, and the guidebook they play by. 

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kavorka - 24 Mar 2020 9:26 AM
This is going to be an unpopular opinion, but one good thing I hope that comes out of all this is when it's over, is that they stop gutting the healthcare system and nationalise it again with proper funding.

Fark off private hospitals and let the government run them again.

Because in crisis like this, it's always the government that has to step up to the plate, while the corporations ask for hand outs...just look at the disaster unfolding in the US.

The Police and Fire department are not privately run, and there is no reason why the Healthcare system should be either.
I'd hope that isn't an unpopular opinion...

My other hope is that it helps people to realise how much we rely on community and working together to survive. The prosperity of recent decades (I'd argue back to boomer times) has helped to produce some very selfish people who believe "they've done it all themselves".

Insert Gertjan Verbeek gifs here

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Its bad to compare to Italy.  They have resorted to reserving testing for people showing severe signs and presenting to hospitals, the actual cases would be much higher, possibly even millions.  In Australia we have just under 2,000 confirmed cases, but these would have been based on transmissions that occurred around 10 days ago, assuming 5 days incubation, 2 days onset of symptoms and 3 day delay in getting the test result.  Given this lag and the exponential growth its probable infections are well into the tens of thousands, perhaps hundreds.  Just avoid the public.  Simple

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mcjules - 24 Mar 2020 11:02 AM
kavorka - 24 Mar 2020 9:26 AM
I'd hope that isn't an unpopular opinion...

My other hope is that it helps people to realise how much we rely on community and working together to survive. The prosperity of recent decades (I'd argue back to boomer times) has helped to produce some very selfish people who believe "they've done it all themselves".

This. I don't know if the healthcare system will be fully public again, but I'm sure people will realise this as a vital service that should be funded.
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rusty - 24 Mar 2020 12:53 PM
Its bad to compare to Italy.  They have resorted to reserving testing for people showing severe signs and presenting to hospitals, the actual cases would be much higher, possibly even millions.  In Australia we have just under 2,000 confirmed cases, but these would have been based on transmissions that occurred around 10 days ago, assuming 5 days incubation, 2 days onset of symptoms and 3 day delay in getting the test result.  Given this lag and the exponential growth its probable infections are well into the tens of thousands, perhaps hundreds.  Just avoid the public.  Simple
Yes, it is a bit bad to compare to Italy. I think I heard this (may have read it, so could be wrong), that Italy has the second oldest average population in the world, and since this is more susceptible and fatal to the elderly..

First is Japan, for those playing at home. So, comparing Japan and Italy would be an interesting discovery.
Munrubenmuz - 23 Mar 2020 10:05 PM
NicCarBel - 23 Mar 2020 10:00 PM

The problem is most people with it are asymptomatic and they're not being tested.  I understand why and it's simply impossible to test everyone BUT that's why this thing won't slow down anytime soon despite Rusty's 'feelings' that we will.

Even if it takes only 5 days to show symptoms.  Think how many people you've mixed with over those 5 days before you even knew you had it.

The US's cases are set to explode in the next couple of days.  Already New York has more cases then most countries. 

Australia is tracking along exactly like Italy, France and Spain just 2 or 3 weeks behind.  We're next.


Exactly, and you hear a lot of those people who are asymptomatic, are also those who don't care, and think it's a mild flu, and then it bites them in the arse.
Case in point: One of those confirmed cases in Canberra over the weekend, is a high-school student. He became a confirmed case on Sunday night. Over the weekend, there are unconfirmed reports that he held, or attended (paraphrasing from wife) a house party.
Who the fuck holds a house party for their teenage kids (unless its said teenage kids just being stupid because no one is home) in times like this.
Plus the countless old ladies my father in law and I see whilst doing the shopping, who just walk around coughing on everything without covering their mouth.
Edited
4 Years Ago by NicCarBel
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Indonesia is gonna get so fucked
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Glory Recruit - 24 Mar 2020 3:25 PM
Indonesia is gonna get so fucked

them and south africa,  and probably nigeria
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Yup, western countries will probably bounce back at some point, third world and developing countries may never recover.

-PB

https://i.imgur.com/batge7K.jpg

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Brazil heavily celebrating carnival 
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paulbagzFC - 24 Mar 2020 4:59 PM
Yup, western countries will probably bounce back at some point, third world and developing countries may never recover.

-PB

Yeah they will.  They have birth rates 2, 3 or 4 times ours.  


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