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mcjules
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+xNSW have recorded less new cases for two days in a row, but I still have massive questions over community spreading (without contact to a case and/or not travelled overseas). I know many people personally that have had some (not all) symptoms but have been denied testing because no travel or contact. I only know of one person that her and her kids had fever that was able to be tested, she was negative, but she is the only person I know that has not met the criteria but still been tested. Yeah it's why to me it probably makes sense to have a more severe lockdown now that it's the Easter, school holiday and ANZAC day combo.
Insert Gertjan Verbeek gifs here
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sydneyfc1987
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+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+xhttps://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/Coronavirus cases and death toll growth rate clearly slowly in Italy, as expected. It takes about 2 weeks for social distancing policies to kick in, due to the lag between catching the virus (incubation typically 2-14 days), therefore the current deaths and newly diagnosed most likely caught the virus in previous weeks. I’d expect there to be a sudden fall in diagnoses and deaths within the next couple weeks almost tapering to current South Korea levels, provided social distancing policies remain intact. I’d expect to see Australia fare much better, likely the short term death rate will be hundreds rather than thousands, again contingent on social distancing and hand washing. Over the longer trajectory thousands will lose their lives but it wont be an apocalypse like the media and our bed wetting politicians are predicting. The real war is the cost to the economy and whether we can bounce back or remain in a permanent state of fear. I've not read into it but South Korea pulled the handbrake on this. I imagine they shut everything down. Their cases rose quickly to 7500 over a matter of days but they've only had another 1500 in around 14 days since then. No SK just exercised social distancing, mass testing and they all wear masks. Commerce is still open as is their airport. They basically test anyone with symptoms, positive cases are forced into quarantine and treated with viral and anti viral medications (the same ones we’re “trialling”). Being an Asian country they seem to be much better prepared for epidemics than we are, our approach seems to be running around changing policy everyday while not actually enforcing any of it. I’d say as of right now there are potentially tens of thousands of undiagnosed cases just floating around our neighbourhoods and parks, about to become the next wave of hospital visits. This is what I worry about. We aren't exercising social distancing. I think our testing has been pretty good but not as aggressive as SK. They were better prepared due to SARS as is HK and Singapore. I imagine some countries besides China have temperature measuring checkpoints? It's very true a lot of people stikk aren't distancing. I left my apartment for the first time in 3 days and it felt a bit odd. Many people's brains will transform in this period of isolation and disconnection. I don't think Australia has the equipment or capacity to conduct public checks save the testing stations people can go to. I'm more thinking of having officials go to shopping centres. If they can set up a semi trailer for certain cancer tests then surely some kind of temperature measuring thing could work? We have the testing stations at various hospitals but the current protocol is to book at time with your GP first and they will triage whether there is a need for you to be tested or not. They widened the testing criteria over the weekend to include all medical staff and not just those from overseas or have contacted a confirmed case.
The semi trailer thing might work since we have developed a test which can screen people in around 15 mins now. That’s a game changer but not sure when that can be properly rolled out. There are apparently shortages in PPE equipment as well. Eh, yes and no. In Canberra (initially, until before this weekend, at least), they have only been testing IF you have been overseas/travelled interstate AND show symptoms. Considering the cases here have jumped up like 1000% over this weekend, that is going to have to change. I don't believe that if the cases have gone up that much in a place like Canberra in the space of 3 days, that there ISN'T community transition. The problem is most people with it are asymptomatic and they're not being tested. I understand why and it's simply impossible to test everyone BUT that's why this thing won't slow down anytime soon despite Rusty's 'feelings' that we will. Even if it takes only 5 days to show symptoms. Think how many people you've mixed with over those 5 days before you even knew you had it. The US's cases are set to explode in the next couple of days. Already New York has more cases then most countries. Australia is tracking along exactly like Italy, France and Spain just 2 or 3 weeks behind. We're next. Agree with both Nic and Muz. Hope we're wrong about being 2-3 weeks behind Italy though but trend is that way. Likewise, I hope we're wrong about being 2-3 weeks behind Italy. I guess the one positive thing is that we've seen whats happened in Italy, and we've started these lockdowns/social distancing/information campaigns. I know theres plenty of dipshits ignoring them, but theres plenty more people taking them seriously. It will take a week or two to see if our trend starts to level off as a result of these actions. From what I've read we've been testing a lot more people than italy ever had. Says it all that italy had 500 odd deaths at 7000 confimed cases at one point whilst we have 3000 confirmed with 13 fatalities. It could all still spiral out of control though. The behaviour of those who all decided to go to the beach last weekend could see to that.
(VAR) IS NAVY BLUE
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scubaroo
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+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+xhttps://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/Coronavirus cases and death toll growth rate clearly slowly in Italy, as expected. It takes about 2 weeks for social distancing policies to kick in, due to the lag between catching the virus (incubation typically 2-14 days), therefore the current deaths and newly diagnosed most likely caught the virus in previous weeks. I’d expect there to be a sudden fall in diagnoses and deaths within the next couple weeks almost tapering to current South Korea levels, provided social distancing policies remain intact. I’d expect to see Australia fare much better, likely the short term death rate will be hundreds rather than thousands, again contingent on social distancing and hand washing. Over the longer trajectory thousands will lose their lives but it wont be an apocalypse like the media and our bed wetting politicians are predicting. The real war is the cost to the economy and whether we can bounce back or remain in a permanent state of fear. I've not read into it but South Korea pulled the handbrake on this. I imagine they shut everything down. Their cases rose quickly to 7500 over a matter of days but they've only had another 1500 in around 14 days since then. No SK just exercised social distancing, mass testing and they all wear masks. Commerce is still open as is their airport. They basically test anyone with symptoms, positive cases are forced into quarantine and treated with viral and anti viral medications (the same ones we’re “trialling”). Being an Asian country they seem to be much better prepared for epidemics than we are, our approach seems to be running around changing policy everyday while not actually enforcing any of it. I’d say as of right now there are potentially tens of thousands of undiagnosed cases just floating around our neighbourhoods and parks, about to become the next wave of hospital visits. This is what I worry about. We aren't exercising social distancing. I think our testing has been pretty good but not as aggressive as SK. They were better prepared due to SARS as is HK and Singapore. I imagine some countries besides China have temperature measuring checkpoints? It's very true a lot of people stikk aren't distancing. I left my apartment for the first time in 3 days and it felt a bit odd. Many people's brains will transform in this period of isolation and disconnection. I don't think Australia has the equipment or capacity to conduct public checks save the testing stations people can go to. I'm more thinking of having officials go to shopping centres. If they can set up a semi trailer for certain cancer tests then surely some kind of temperature measuring thing could work? We have the testing stations at various hospitals but the current protocol is to book at time with your GP first and they will triage whether there is a need for you to be tested or not. They widened the testing criteria over the weekend to include all medical staff and not just those from overseas or have contacted a confirmed case.
The semi trailer thing might work since we have developed a test which can screen people in around 15 mins now. That’s a game changer but not sure when that can be properly rolled out. There are apparently shortages in PPE equipment as well. Eh, yes and no. In Canberra (initially, until before this weekend, at least), they have only been testing IF you have been overseas/travelled interstate AND show symptoms. Considering the cases here have jumped up like 1000% over this weekend, that is going to have to change. I don't believe that if the cases have gone up that much in a place like Canberra in the space of 3 days, that there ISN'T community transition. The problem is most people with it are asymptomatic and they're not being tested. I understand why and it's simply impossible to test everyone BUT that's why this thing won't slow down anytime soon despite Rusty's 'feelings' that we will. Even if it takes only 5 days to show symptoms. Think how many people you've mixed with over those 5 days before you even knew you had it. The US's cases are set to explode in the next couple of days. Already New York has more cases then most countries. Australia is tracking along exactly like Italy, France and Spain just 2 or 3 weeks behind. We're next. Agree with both Nic and Muz. Hope we're wrong about being 2-3 weeks behind Italy though but trend is that way. Likewise, I hope we're wrong about being 2-3 weeks behind Italy. I guess the one positive thing is that we've seen whats happened in Italy, and we've started these lockdowns/social distancing/information campaigns. I know theres plenty of dipshits ignoring them, but theres plenty more people taking them seriously. It will take a week or two to see if our trend starts to level off as a result of these actions. From what I've read we've been testing a lot more people than italy ever had. Says it all that italy had 500 odd deaths at 7000 confimed cases at one point whilst we have 3000 confirmed with 13 fatalities. It could all still spiral out of control though. The behaviour of those who all decided to go to the beach last weekend could see to that. And this weekend, i had to drive down to the main beach in ocean grove today for work and there were at a few hundred people down there. From reports st.kilda beach was busy as well. These people that don't seem to give a shit are probably the same people that bought everything at the supermarkets after the panic buyers. Just arseholes.
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Burztur
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+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+x+xhttps://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/Coronavirus cases and death toll growth rate clearly slowly in Italy, as expected. It takes about 2 weeks for social distancing policies to kick in, due to the lag between catching the virus (incubation typically 2-14 days), therefore the current deaths and newly diagnosed most likely caught the virus in previous weeks. I’d expect there to be a sudden fall in diagnoses and deaths within the next couple weeks almost tapering to current South Korea levels, provided social distancing policies remain intact. I’d expect to see Australia fare much better, likely the short term death rate will be hundreds rather than thousands, again contingent on social distancing and hand washing. Over the longer trajectory thousands will lose their lives but it wont be an apocalypse like the media and our bed wetting politicians are predicting. The real war is the cost to the economy and whether we can bounce back or remain in a permanent state of fear. I've not read into it but South Korea pulled the handbrake on this. I imagine they shut everything down. Their cases rose quickly to 7500 over a matter of days but they've only had another 1500 in around 14 days since then. No SK just exercised social distancing, mass testing and they all wear masks. Commerce is still open as is their airport. They basically test anyone with symptoms, positive cases are forced into quarantine and treated with viral and anti viral medications (the same ones we’re “trialling”). Being an Asian country they seem to be much better prepared for epidemics than we are, our approach seems to be running around changing policy everyday while not actually enforcing any of it. I’d say as of right now there are potentially tens of thousands of undiagnosed cases just floating around our neighbourhoods and parks, about to become the next wave of hospital visits. This is what I worry about. We aren't exercising social distancing. I think our testing has been pretty good but not as aggressive as SK. They were better prepared due to SARS as is HK and Singapore. I imagine some countries besides China have temperature measuring checkpoints? It's very true a lot of people stikk aren't distancing. I left my apartment for the first time in 3 days and it felt a bit odd. Many people's brains will transform in this period of isolation and disconnection. I don't think Australia has the equipment or capacity to conduct public checks save the testing stations people can go to. I'm more thinking of having officials go to shopping centres. If they can set up a semi trailer for certain cancer tests then surely some kind of temperature measuring thing could work? We have the testing stations at various hospitals but the current protocol is to book at time with your GP first and they will triage whether there is a need for you to be tested or not. They widened the testing criteria over the weekend to include all medical staff and not just those from overseas or have contacted a confirmed case.
The semi trailer thing might work since we have developed a test which can screen people in around 15 mins now. That’s a game changer but not sure when that can be properly rolled out. There are apparently shortages in PPE equipment as well. Eh, yes and no. In Canberra (initially, until before this weekend, at least), they have only been testing IF you have been overseas/travelled interstate AND show symptoms. Considering the cases here have jumped up like 1000% over this weekend, that is going to have to change. I don't believe that if the cases have gone up that much in a place like Canberra in the space of 3 days, that there ISN'T community transition. The problem is most people with it are asymptomatic and they're not being tested. I understand why and it's simply impossible to test everyone BUT that's why this thing won't slow down anytime soon despite Rusty's 'feelings' that we will. Even if it takes only 5 days to show symptoms. Think how many people you've mixed with over those 5 days before you even knew you had it. The US's cases are set to explode in the next couple of days. Already New York has more cases then most countries. Australia is tracking along exactly like Italy, France and Spain just 2 or 3 weeks behind. We're next. Agree with both Nic and Muz. Hope we're wrong about being 2-3 weeks behind Italy though but trend is that way. Likewise, I hope we're wrong about being 2-3 weeks behind Italy. I guess the one positive thing is that we've seen whats happened in Italy, and we've started these lockdowns/social distancing/information campaigns. I know theres plenty of dipshits ignoring them, but theres plenty more people taking them seriously. It will take a week or two to see if our trend starts to level off as a result of these actions. From what I've read we've been testing a lot more people than italy ever had. Says it all that italy had 500 odd deaths at 7000 confimed cases at one point whilst we have 3000 confirmed with 13 fatalities. It could all still spiral out of control though. The behaviour of those who all decided to go to the beach last weekend could see to that. And this weekend, i had to drive down to the main beach in ocean grove today for work and there were at a few hundred people down there. From reports st.kilda beach was busy as well. These people that don't seem to give a shit are probably the same people that bought everything at the supermarkets after the panic buyers. Just arseholes. We have some of the highest testing numbers per capita compared to any other country. That's what we have been doing well on. Everyone is about to ramp up testing though but we are ahead of the curve in that regard. As for people not giving a shit, I look forward to the cops giving them a 1k fine each.
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petszk
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Yes, I fully realise that there is some doubt over the accuracy of China's numbers... That said, this made me happy and hopeful; https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/(You need to scroll down to the "Active cases" section).
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LFC.
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I wouldn't trust Chinas figures ever. Here's what I've been using..... https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Love Football
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Muz
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Boris has Covid 19
Member since 2008.
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Muz
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Subsidies, cash, bailouts, interest free loans, grants being handed out left, right and centre in the UK, the US and here and nary a word of objection from the 'free market' right. Fucking hypocrites the lot of them.
Member since 2008.
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petszk
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Yeah, that's the same site as I linked. South Korea also looking okay at the moment. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/(Again, scroll down to the "Active cases" graph)
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mouflonrouge
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I have to agree with rusty again on this one.
there is a lot of panic and hysteria about the China Virus and people need to calm down.
There are 2 sides to this equation. One side is the medical issue and the other is the economic fallout. Do we really want to condemn our population to poverty for the next 5, 10 or 20 years? Who will pay for the mess and debt? our children and grand children will.
Australia has about 3300 cases and we have had 13 deaths and also have 23 in ICU. It seems we can manage it as long as the general population practice social distancing, cough in elbows, where masks etc.
Australia will fare better than many countries because we are isolating international travelers. In the last 3 days there has been also a sharp decline in new cases which seems to indicate that the measures are working.
Scott Morrison was right yet again.
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mouflonrouge
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+xLook at all these morons who think they’re smarter than the epidemiologists and diseases experts of whom the government is taking their advice. I mean what qualifications do any of you have another than an armchair, keyboard and degree in pretendology? The amount of wankers out their positing their worthless opinions is infuriating, like they think they know better than the experts because they looked at the trend line in Italy and decided thats the course where on. Stop taking your information and guidance from news.com.au and start acquainting yourselves with the facts and above all stop overruling the experts who are; a) smarter than you b) more qualified than you c) do this for a living Its just about being humble and not being a retarded ignorant bogan who thinks they know better than people who practice this stuff day in day out. Also going into lockdown wont make the virus go away. Essential services that will continue to operate include Government at all levels Police, fire and ambulance Airports, ports and customs Public transport Petrol stations Mechanics Supermarkets Chemists Prisons Hospitals and GPs Manufacturing Farming and agriculture Mining Couriers and truck drivers Takeaway and delivery drivers ( unless you want massive shortages and crowds at woolies) Trades (someones gotta fix the power) Engineers and field technicians Call centres and office workers for all of the above These industries employ millions and MUST continue to operate, and so the virus will continue to fester while these industries continue, ready to spike again as soon as the lockdown is lifted and people expect to resume their normal lives. Shame of Chris Bowen trying to leverage irrational community fear to discredit and undermine the PM and the experts whom are guiding these policies. Time is for bipartisanship not petty political attacks during times of genuine crisis.
I just urge people to repress that knee jerk instinct that makes them inclined to bash everything the government does and lets all join and work together to collectively resolve the situation. Most of all stop being dumb and listen to the experts and seek to understand their rationale rather than gathering your facts from facebook and conspiracy theorists on youtube.
Spot on! They seem to be getting their information from ABC-TV which has been an extremely irresponsible "news" outlet spreading a lot of fake news with over-hyped up scaremongering and a fear campaign. What the Sheeple don't realize is that the people at the ABC will have and keep their jobs. They however won't. This battle isn't just fought in the medical space. It's also a battle to dampen the effects on the economy so that everyone has a chance to return to normality when it is all over. The China Virus will come and go. But what we do for the economy may have far reaching consequences for years to come. Australia isn't on the same curve as Italy.
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mouflonrouge
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+xUnfortunately the stupidity spread online comes down to people see cases and deaths rise daily therefore concluding that the current measures aren't working and more drastic action is needed, not understanding the lag between measures being announced and their impact on transmissions (2-3 weeks for diagnosis and 3-4 weeks for deaths). The policies the government originally announced 13th March should start taking effect this week, so we should see a reduction in the rate of increase possibly plateauing by next week and then declining, keep in mind the main thing propping these numbers up are overseas arrivals which are relatively easy to trace. It appears at this stage only NSW or Sydney may need to go into more draconian lockdown as their is evidence of community transmission at this stage, but other states like Qld and SA appear to have it under control so far. We could already be seeing The China Virus plateau. days ago, we were getting 400 to 600 new cases a day. Now we are down to 130 new cases a day.
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NicCarBel
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+x+xUnfortunately the stupidity spread online comes down to people see cases and deaths rise daily therefore concluding that the current measures aren't working and more drastic action is needed, not understanding the lag between measures being announced and their impact on transmissions (2-3 weeks for diagnosis and 3-4 weeks for deaths). The policies the government originally announced 13th March should start taking effect this week, so we should see a reduction in the rate of increase possibly plateauing by next week and then declining, keep in mind the main thing propping these numbers up are overseas arrivals which are relatively easy to trace. It appears at this stage only NSW or Sydney may need to go into more draconian lockdown as their is evidence of community transmission at this stage, but other states like Qld and SA appear to have it under control so far. We could already be seeing the plateau. days ago, we were getting 400 to 600 new cases a day. Now we are down to 130 new cases a day. Sorry, but the past few days are still between 350-400
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Muz
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+x+x+xUnfortunately the stupidity spread online comes down to people see cases and deaths rise daily therefore concluding that the current measures aren't working and more drastic action is needed, not understanding the lag between measures being announced and their impact on transmissions (2-3 weeks for diagnosis and 3-4 weeks for deaths). The policies the government originally announced 13th March should start taking effect this week, so we should see a reduction in the rate of increase possibly plateauing by next week and then declining, keep in mind the main thing propping these numbers up are overseas arrivals which are relatively easy to trace. It appears at this stage only NSW or Sydney may need to go into more draconian lockdown as their is evidence of community transmission at this stage, but other states like Qld and SA appear to have it under control so far. We could already be seeing the plateau. days ago, we were getting 400 to 600 new cases a day. Now we are down to 130 new cases a day. Sorry, but the past few days are still between 350-400 Ignore that troll. Australian cases are tracking along exponential lines just like everywhere else. What a surprise. Graphs and explainers here. https://www.smh.com.au/national/what-s-the-death-rate-how-long-will-it-last-your-covid-19-questions-answered-20200323-p54cy7.html
Member since 2008.
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Muz
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Clive Palmer being a fuckhead extraordinaire again. He needs shut his big fat ignorant mouth.
Member since 2008.
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Burztur
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+x+x+x+xUnfortunately the stupidity spread online comes down to people see cases and deaths rise daily therefore concluding that the current measures aren't working and more drastic action is needed, not understanding the lag between measures being announced and their impact on transmissions (2-3 weeks for diagnosis and 3-4 weeks for deaths). The policies the government originally announced 13th March should start taking effect this week, so we should see a reduction in the rate of increase possibly plateauing by next week and then declining, keep in mind the main thing propping these numbers up are overseas arrivals which are relatively easy to trace. It appears at this stage only NSW or Sydney may need to go into more draconian lockdown as their is evidence of community transmission at this stage, but other states like Qld and SA appear to have it under control so far. We could already be seeing the plateau. days ago, we were getting 400 to 600 new cases a day. Now we are down to 130 new cases a day. Sorry, but the past few days are still between 350-400 Ignore that troll. Australian cases are tracking along exponential lines just like everywhere else. What a surprise. Graphs and explainers here. https://www.smh.com.au/national/what-s-the-death-rate-how-long-will-it-last-your-covid-19-questions-answered-20200323-p54cy7.html The rise has flattened a little over the past 2-3 days but we will know in another 1-2 weeks.
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mouflonrouge
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+x+x+xUnfortunately the stupidity spread online comes down to people see cases and deaths rise daily therefore concluding that the current measures aren't working and more drastic action is needed, not understanding the lag between measures being announced and their impact on transmissions (2-3 weeks for diagnosis and 3-4 weeks for deaths). The policies the government originally announced 13th March should start taking effect this week, so we should see a reduction in the rate of increase possibly plateauing by next week and then declining, keep in mind the main thing propping these numbers up are overseas arrivals which are relatively easy to trace. It appears at this stage only NSW or Sydney may need to go into more draconian lockdown as their is evidence of community transmission at this stage, but other states like Qld and SA appear to have it under control so far. We could already be seeing the plateau. days ago, we were getting 400 to 600 new cases a day. Now we are down to 130 new cases a day. Sorry, but the past few days are still between 350-400 OK I just checked. When I checked earlier it was showing 130 new cases so they didn't update the numbers unfortunately. This is where I was getting my data from: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/you are correct. it's still down on the 500 to 600 we were getting so I am hoping this means the measures so far are having an impact.
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mouflonrouge
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Group: Forum Members
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+x+x+x+xUnfortunately the stupidity spread online comes down to people see cases and deaths rise daily therefore concluding that the current measures aren't working and more drastic action is needed, not understanding the lag between measures being announced and their impact on transmissions (2-3 weeks for diagnosis and 3-4 weeks for deaths). The policies the government originally announced 13th March should start taking effect this week, so we should see a reduction in the rate of increase possibly plateauing by next week and then declining, keep in mind the main thing propping these numbers up are overseas arrivals which are relatively easy to trace. It appears at this stage only NSW or Sydney may need to go into more draconian lockdown as their is evidence of community transmission at this stage, but other states like Qld and SA appear to have it under control so far. We could already be seeing the plateau. days ago, we were getting 400 to 600 new cases a day. Now we are down to 130 new cases a day. Sorry, but the past few days are still between 350-400 L Ignore that troll. Australian cases are tracking along exponential lines just like everywhere else. What a surprise. Graphs and explainers here. https://www.smh.com.au/national/what-s-the-death-rate-how-long-will-it-last-your-covid-19-questions-answered-20200323-p54cy7.html Look at the daily new cases graph from the trashy fake media Guardian. It shows that Australia's curve is flattening. if it is flattening, then we are not on exponential lines. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/datablog/ng-interactive/2020/mar/28/coronavirus-australia-map-cases-numbers-stats-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-nsw-maps-victoria-live-data-qld-sa-wa-tas-latest-statisticsAlso look at this website and scroll down and look at the graphs. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/You should really desist from this pointless trolling that you do and more importantly, do some research! Also learn the meaning of exponential growth and don't use a linear graph showing the total number of cases and attribute exponential growth to that which is nothing less than nonsensical. Exponential growth is the exponential growth of the number of new cases. The number of new cases each day must increase for the growth to be exponential, not decrease or flatten out.
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NicCarBel
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+x+x+x+xUnfortunately the stupidity spread online comes down to people see cases and deaths rise daily therefore concluding that the current measures aren't working and more drastic action is needed, not understanding the lag between measures being announced and their impact on transmissions (2-3 weeks for diagnosis and 3-4 weeks for deaths). The policies the government originally announced 13th March should start taking effect this week, so we should see a reduction in the rate of increase possibly plateauing by next week and then declining, keep in mind the main thing propping these numbers up are overseas arrivals which are relatively easy to trace. It appears at this stage only NSW or Sydney may need to go into more draconian lockdown as their is evidence of community transmission at this stage, but other states like Qld and SA appear to have it under control so far. We could already be seeing the plateau. days ago, we were getting 400 to 600 new cases a day. Now we are down to 130 new cases a day. Sorry, but the past few days are still between 350-400 OK I just checked. When I checked earlier it was showing 130 new cases so they didn't update the numbers unfortunately. This is where I was getting my data from: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/you are correct. it's still down on the 500 to 600 we were getting so I am hoping this means the measures so far are having an impact. That is also where I get the stats from. The issue was you comparing half a day, to full days. It's like saying the world has ended because the sun hasn't risen today, but its still only 1am
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Glory Recruit
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Where is Morrison getting the 6 months lock down from, if we were to go into lockdown it'd be probably 1 month, even experts have called him out on this, it's frustrating as hell that he keeps repeating 6 months.
Our growth rate has lowered for 4 days straight, hopefully the existing measures work and we can flatten the curve and avoid a full lock down. Currently in 2 weeks isolation and it's not something I recommend or want to do for a month...
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NicCarBel
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+xWhere is Morrison getting the 6 months lock down from, if we were to go into lockdown it'd be probably 1 month, even experts have called him out on this, it's frustrating as hell that he keeps repeating 6 months. Our growth rate has lowered for 4 days straight, hopefully the existing measures work and we can flatten the curve and avoid a full lock down. Currently in 2 weeks isolation and it's not something I recommend or want to do for a month... This started in China in early-mid December, and they're only just starting to get low, if we believe the statistics they put out
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mouflonrouge
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+x+x+x+x+xUnfortunately the stupidity spread online comes down to people see cases and deaths rise daily therefore concluding that the current measures aren't working and more drastic action is needed, not understanding the lag between measures being announced and their impact on transmissions (2-3 weeks for diagnosis and 3-4 weeks for deaths). The policies the government originally announced 13th March should start taking effect this week, so we should see a reduction in the rate of increase possibly plateauing by next week and then declining, keep in mind the main thing propping these numbers up are overseas arrivals which are relatively easy to trace. It appears at this stage only NSW or Sydney may need to go into more draconian lockdown as their is evidence of community transmission at this stage, but other states like Qld and SA appear to have it under control so far. We could already be seeing the plateau. days ago, we were getting 400 to 600 new cases a day. Now we are down to 130 new cases a day. Sorry, but the past few days are still between 350-400 OK I just checked. When I checked earlier it was showing 130 new cases so they didn't update the numbers unfortunately. This is where I was getting my data from: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/you are correct. it's still down on the 500 to 600 we were getting so I am hoping this means the measures so far are having an impact. That is also where I get the stats from. The issue was you comparing half a day, to full days. It's like saying the world has ended because the sun hasn't risen today, but its still only 1am Yes that was the issue. When I looked late last night, the Australian Stats were 130 new cases which I thought was good. I had though't the figure was fully updated. but when I woke up the next day and checked again, it was 357 new cases. Mind you, I think if we can stay under the 400 mark it will still be very good. It means we might be off the exponential curve. The last 4 days seem to indicate we are getting off the exponential curve but its still early days. The last 4 days could be an anomaly.
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rusty
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The total # of cases is mostly irrelevant. We know this because the majority of those cases are imports from overseas and not locally acquired infections, so the key statistic to look out for here is infections with an unknown source. As we’ve see in NSW this number has recently increased to ~200 which is quite concerning as they are still only testing those who’ve returned overseas OR been in contact with a confirmed positive case, so it makes me wonder HOW these people ended up getting tested, if they dont meet the standard criteria Coronavirus testing? Could it be that their symptoms were so severe that they presented to hospital and were tested? If thats the case and we know that roughly 20% of cases present to hospitals, then we can extrapolate that at least 1000 have acquired it through the community. Furthermore due to the lag between contracting the virus, the incubation period, symptoms getting bad enough to present to hospital, getting tested and receiving a positive diagnosis, if we assume to be on average 14 days, then we have to consider the possibility that the minimum 1000 cases is a snapshot in time from two weeks ago, and that there has been exponential growth since due to the lax effort to identify and isolate those who acquired it in the community. If we then assume a 25% day on day growth then its possible that there are currently 10,000 or more in NSW who have it, completely falling beneath the radar of health authorities. I know my figures are quite rubbery but when you consider how fast this thing has spread through Italy in such a short amount of time, then we need to consider that we are not out of the woods yet. My hope is that due to the public warnings and progressive shut down of society and movement that the numbers arent that bad in actual fact, or that I have missed something in the testing criteria and that some people who do present certain symptoms to their GPs (fever, cough etc) are getting tested.
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Burztur
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+xThe total # of cases is mostly irrelevant. We know this because the majority of those cases are imports from overseas and not locally acquired infections, so the key statistic to look out for here is infections with an unknown source. As we’ve see in NSW this number has recently increased to ~200 which is quite concerning as they are still only testing those who’ve returned overseas OR been in contact with a confirmed positive case, so it makes me wonder HOW these people ended up getting tested, if they dont meet the standard criteria Coronavirus testing? Could it be that their symptoms were so severe that they presented to hospital and were tested? If thats the case and we know that roughly 20% of cases present to hospitals, then we can extrapolate that at least 1000 have acquired it through the community. Furthermore due to the lag between contracting the virus, the incubation period, symptoms getting bad enough to present to hospital, getting tested and receiving a positive diagnosis, if we assume to be on average 14 days, then we have to consider the possibility that the minimum 1000 cases is a snapshot in time from two weeks ago, and that there has been exponential growth since due to the lax effort to identify and isolate those who acquired it in the community. If we then assume a 25% day on day growth then its possible that there are currently 10,000 or more in NSW who have it, completely falling beneath the radar of health authorities. I know my figures are quite rubbery but when you consider how fast this thing has spread through Italy in such a short amount of time, then we need to consider that we are not out of the woods yet. My hope is that due to the public warnings and progressive shut down of society and movement that the numbers arent that bad in actual fact, or that I have missed something in the testing criteria and that some people who do present certain symptoms to their GPs (fever, cough etc) are getting tested. I think that's the case. We need more widespread testing and that may happen in 1-2 weeks when we get more testing kits available. Having said that, our testing is still very high and our deaths are low, so we have it better than other countries.
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Muz
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Member since 2008.
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mouflonrouge
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Guns could be very handy if we are to believe the ABC-TV and their doomsday predictions.
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paulbagzFC
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+xGuns could be very handy if we are to believe the ABC-TV and their doomsday predictions. Can't get any on QLD/WA ATM, in sure others states will follow suit this week lol -PB
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Muz
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quickflick
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+x+xLook at all these morons who think they’re smarter than the epidemiologists and diseases experts of whom the government is taking their advice. I mean what qualifications do any of you have another than an armchair, keyboard and degree in pretendology? The amount of wankers out their positing their worthless opinions is infuriating, like they think they know better than the experts because they looked at the trend line in Italy and decided thats the course where on. Stop taking your information and guidance from news.com.au and start acquainting yourselves with the facts and above all stop overruling the experts who are; a) smarter than you b) more qualified than you c) do this for a living Its just about being humble and not being a retarded ignorant bogan who thinks they know better than people who practice this stuff day in day out. Also going into lockdown wont make the virus go away. Essential services that will continue to operate include Government at all levels Police, fire and ambulance Airports, ports and customs Public transport Petrol stations Mechanics Supermarkets Chemists Prisons Hospitals and GPs Manufacturing Farming and agriculture Mining Couriers and truck drivers Takeaway and delivery drivers ( unless you want massive shortages and crowds at woolies) Trades (someones gotta fix the power) Engineers and field technicians Call centres and office workers for all of the above These industries employ millions and MUST continue to operate, and so the virus will continue to fester while these industries continue, ready to spike again as soon as the lockdown is lifted and people expect to resume their normal lives. Shame of Chris Bowen trying to leverage irrational community fear to discredit and undermine the PM and the experts whom are guiding these policies. Time is for bipartisanship not petty political attacks during times of genuine crisis.
I just urge people to repress that knee jerk instinct that makes them inclined to bash everything the government does and lets all join and work together to collectively resolve the situation. Most of all stop being dumb and listen to the experts and seek to understand their rationale rather than gathering your facts from facebook and conspiracy theorists on youtube.
Spot on! They seem to be getting their information from ABC-TV which has been an extremely irresponsible "news" outlet spreading a lot of fake news with over-hyped up scaremongering and a fear campaign. What the Sheeple don't realize is that the people at the ABC will have and keep their jobs. They however won't. This battle isn't just fought in the medical space. It's also a battle to dampen the effects on the economy so that everyone has a chance to return to normality when it is all over. The China Virus will come and go. But what we do for the economy may have far reaching consequences for years to come. Australia isn't on the same curve as Italy. Yeah like listening to the World Health Organisation, epidemiologists and a whole host of other ignoramuses. Don't listen to those buggers. They obviously just want to financially enslave you.
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quickflick
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Australia's circumstances aren't as bad as Italy's. People here have started social distancing far earlier and we test far more. We're also not quite as elderly a population, we have fewer smokers and the family unit here don't live cheek-by-jowl.
ScoMo's limited measures might just suffice in stopping the virus spread to the feared levels. I guess you could say that the amount of testing Aus does potentially gives it leeway to keep enough businesses running so as not to decimate the economy.
Having said that, his communication skills up to now have been truly terrible. He has contradicted himself a lot. And his (and even Professor Murphy's) line of argument contradict a lot of advice from other medical experts; e.g. the schools issue and the horrendous definition of 'essential services'.
The other problem with Scomo's approach is that there's really little margin for error. He won't close schools when even Boris Johnson has done this (leaving them open only for the children of healthcare workers, supermarket workers, etc., as I understand it). The modelling from Imperial College London suggests the closure of schools can make a profound difference in the amount of transmission.
If Scomo's gamble doesn't pay off, the upshot could be our ICUs being overwhelmed by patients and a lack of invasive ventilators. That's where the nightmare scenario unfolds with doctors having to choose which patients to save and which to leave. In such a scenario, plenty of the elderly would lose their lives. And there would still be too many cases of young, healthy people dying too.
This isn't standard flu and pneumonia (already dangerous for the elderly). This is viral pneumonia which, hitherto, can't be treated by modern medicine. As I understand it, there are so many things that can go wrong. For one thing, COVID-19 manages to cover so much of the lungs and trigger an immune response which destroys, not just the diseased tissue, but also the healthy tissue. For another thing, since this form of pneumonia can't be treated, there's a real risk of Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome. This involves the lungs' alveoli (little air sacs) being flooded with fluid. The person can drown in their own blood. What's more, the person's lungs can't exchange oxygen and carbon dioxide in the bloodstream which means their vital organs don't get oxygen and they can die of organ failure.
There's a good reason that almost all medical professionals are shit-scared of this virus. It's highly contagious and it's dangerous enough for enough people to require intensive care. And since its novel, it's can't be treated adequately.
So, you gotta ask yourself, should the govt err on the side of caution in protecting human lives or should it err on the side of caution in protecting the economy? If it's priority is economic stability - the risk is playing Russian Roulette with the lives of elderly and immunocompromised. As well as playing Russian Roulette with the chance of the young and health avoiding ICU (enough stand to end up in ICU).
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