Olyroos Transfer Speculation Thread


Olyroos Transfer Speculation Thread

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Dan_The_Red
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@Quickflick. You been banging on this same argument for years now. I don’t think anyone will argue more games at a higher level from a younger age will improve development. The issue is you continually ignore is other variables as to why Aussie kids moving to Europe at 16 isn’t always the best idea. The vast majority who leave at such a young age come home without developing into the world beater you’re saying they should be. Naming 10/15 who succeeded years ago further demonstrates they’re the exception not the rule. 
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jaymz - 27 Jul 2021 2:03 PM
Bunch of Hacks - 27 Jul 2021 12:33 AM

So you are basing the fact that he played well for a reserve team (which heaps of aussie players do) and 15 good minutes and then got injured as a success. I mean Brilliante played two games for Fiorentina after a great pre season and he hasnt had a successful Euro career. 

Also since his return from injury he has had about 3 clubs in 12 months which tells me that injury or not he left too early as he doesn't have the experience to draw on. He has been back from injury for over 12 months so the effects of the injury should be well behind him and i dont think its an excuse for him not playing anymore tbh. Plenty of players have ACL injuries and come back and actually play, but they have experience to draw on. 

Dont get me wrong he is a great player and still has potential to be a success in Europe, but it will be a lot harder for him now as he needs to take a drop in standard of the league he goes to just to get game time. So far Netherlands and Denmark have not worked out so he needs to consider a smaller team in those leagues, or a smaller league where he will play (like croatia). That is of course unless he finds a coach who knows him and will give him opportunity like Ange, or Bert, etc

???? Eh? 

Where did I say that?!

The point i was making was that he made a decent start but then had a horrific injury... so how on earth can you say he left too early?! Horrible call.

Of course we'll never truly know but I genuinely believe being a celtic supporter and following him at the time, that he would have kicked if not for the injury. 



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grazorblade - 26 Jul 2021 10:36 AM
jaymz - 26 Jul 2021 9:47 AM

 Contrast that to mooy who was solid for a while but then tore it up two years in a row and did really well in the premier league. 


Really well compared to whom/what? On a personal level, Aaron Mooy did really well. If I were him, I'd be very proud, I think.

Compared to other footballers in the Premier League, however, he did quite well. He was hardly one of the standouts in the entire league.

grazorblade - 26 Jul 2021 10:36 AM
jaymz - 26 Jul 2021 9:47 AM

Also the causality is backwards. Players who played here and made it in both generations, left at whatever age they had established themselves here.

Except for those players who left for Europe without having played a single professional game in Australia. E.g. Harry Kewell, Tim Cahill, Lucas Neill, Craig Moore.

grazorblade - 26 Jul 2021 10:36 AM
jaymz - 26 Jul 2021 9:47 AM

 so leaking out best youth to kamikaze moves becomes a vicious cycle

All right. Let's look at a couple of non-Aussie/non-European examples.

Christian Pulisic  and Giovanni Reyna, both play for the USMNT, went to Borussia Dortmund at the age of 16. Were those kamikaze moves?

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jaymz - 26 Jul 2021 9:47 AM
quickflick - 25 Jul 2021 5:26 PM

Not necessarily true


Which part? Did Kewell, Cahill, Viduka, Neill, Moore, Grella, Bresciano leave Australian professional football after the age of 21?

jaymz - 26 Jul 2021 9:47 AM
quickflick - 25 Jul 2021 5:26 PM

if you look at how many of our players who have left before 21 and had to come back vs those who left before 21 and succeeded, we have only had a handful of players leave before 21 and do well in a top league.

We've only had a handful of players do well in a top league. Full stop.

And virtually all of those players have left before the age of 21. Certainly the best of those players. The only real exceptions are Brett Emerton who left at 21 and  Mark Schwarzer who was a goalkeeper, not an outfield player. There haven't been players who've stayed in the NSL/A-League for ages.

You're going about this the wrong way, imo. Everyone acknowledges this:

% of those who leave young and succeed < % of those who leave and don't succeed

No-one disputes that. The point is this:

However slim, there is a chance of becoming a world-class footballer by playing professional football in Europe from a young age. By contrast, there have been very few, if any, world-class footballers who spent the formative part of their professional careers playing football in Australia.

Therefore, the only chance is to leave early and do what the other world-class footballers have done (i.e. play professional football in Europe/South America from as young as possible)
Edited
4 Years Ago by quickflick
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grazorblade - 27 Jul 2021 3:01 PM
Balin Trev - 27 Jul 2021 2:29 PM

we all remember what happened to mooyzil on his return home

it really isn't so bad

Yeah, Aussies can  aspire fo play in the Chinese league. 

Joking aside, a sample size of one isn’t statistically-compelling. And that one, while a very decent footballer, isn’t of the calibre of the big names in Europe. Not for the sustained periods that only the really high calibre players are capable of. No disrespect intended towards Aaron Mooy.

Mooy has a few decent games in the Premier League and  we pop out the champers. Meanwhile players from other countries with Mooy’s skill level having success in the big leagues are a dime-a-dozen.  Unfortunately, that’s where Australian football is at.

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4 Years Ago by quickflick
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Arzani probably said - I can become a world class attacking footballer. I can play it safe in the a poor quality league with no P/R and a short season. Meanwhile, the other guys born in ‘99 will be playing lots of football each week at the highest level. Or I can move into a higher quality competition.

So, no thanks, I don’t want to be yet another mediocre footballer from Australia. I want to be a world-beater. I’m going to do what other world-beaters do and move to Europe to compete at the highest level. That’s where the Mbappés and Haalands are improving their football.. For some reason or other, they haven’t bothered with the A-League
Edited
4 Years Ago by quickflick
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jaymz - 27 Jul 2021 2:03 PM
Bunch of Hacks - 27 Jul 2021 12:33 AM

So you are basing the fact that he played well for a reserve team (which heaps of aussie players do) and 15 good minutes and then got injured as a success. I mean Brilliante played two games for Fiorentina after a great pre season and he hasnt had a successful Euro career. 

Also since his return from injury he has had about 3 clubs in 12 months which tells me that injury or not he left too early as he doesn't have the experience to draw on. He has been back from injury for over 12 months so the effects of the injury should be well behind him and i dont think its an excuse for him not playing anymore tbh. Plenty of players have ACL injuries and come back and actually play, but they have experience to draw on. 

Dont get me wrong he is a great player and still has potential to be a success in Europe, but it will be a lot harder for him now as he needs to take a drop in standard of the league he goes to just to get game time. So far Netherlands and Denmark have not worked out so he needs to consider a smaller team in those leagues, or a smaller league where he will play (like croatia). That is of course unless he finds a coach who knows him and will give him opportunity like Ange, or Bert, etc

And you’re trying to argue that the Daniel Arzani is an example of why a footballer shouldn’t leave too early when Arzani is irrelevant to that argument. He did his ACL. Nothing to do with leaving too early or too late. Poor example.

Granted, I don’t think that pre-ACL, his very very brief stint with Celtic can be painted as a success. But not a failure. Personally, I’d sooner he’d gone to Germany. But thr ACL was just bad luck.
Edited
4 Years Ago by quickflick
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Would love to know which Belgian club Atkinson is linked with. Anyone know? 

Libby Cacace was linked with Juventus after performing well for a lower table Belgian club. Grella has called it “the most scouted league in Europe”. 

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Balin Trev - 27 Jul 2021 2:29 PM
jaymz - 27 Jul 2021 2:03 PM

Just for record - Arzani was injured again from Feb til May this year which kept him sidelined at AGF. But you’re right - he is lacking experience either way and needs go to lower league just to get regular game time. AL could be best tbh, as many people on here have always said

we all remember what happened to mooyzil on his return home

it really isn't so bad
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jaymz - 27 Jul 2021 2:03 PM
Bunch of Hacks - 27 Jul 2021 12:33 AM

So you are basing the fact that he played well for a reserve team (which heaps of aussie players do) and 15 good minutes and then got injured as a success. I mean Brilliante played two games for Fiorentina after a great pre season and he hasnt had a successful Euro career. 

Also since his return from injury he has had about 3 clubs in 12 months which tells me that injury or not he left too early as he doesn't have the experience to draw on. He has been back from injury for over 12 months so the effects of the injury should be well behind him and i dont think its an excuse for him not playing anymore tbh. Plenty of players have ACL injuries and come back and actually play, but they have experience to draw on. 

Dont get me wrong he is a great player and still has potential to be a success in Europe, but it will be a lot harder for him now as he needs to take a drop in standard of the league he goes to just to get game time. So far Netherlands and Denmark have not worked out so he needs to consider a smaller team in those leagues, or a smaller league where he will play (like croatia). That is of course unless he finds a coach who knows him and will give him opportunity like Ange, or Bert, etc

Just for record - Arzani was injured again from Feb til May this year which kept him sidelined at AGF. But you’re right - he is lacking experience either way and needs go to lower league just to get regular game time. AL could be best tbh, as many people on here have always said
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add in Belguim or more so Portugal - < good level and punching above their weight player wise.
More Aussie managers should be networking there for their players.


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Bunch of Hacks - 27 Jul 2021 12:33 AM
jaymz - 26 Jul 2021 1:21 PM

Arzani left too early?! Mate the guy did an acl ! 

Before that starred in the celtic reserve side and should have had an assist with his first touch (think it was leigh Griffiths who fluffed the shot). Was absolutely tearing it up for the 15 mins he was on in that game like he did at the world cup before his knee collapsed. 

Had that not have happened he was primed to cement his spot and kick on. 

So you are basing the fact that he played well for a reserve team (which heaps of aussie players do) and 15 good minutes and then got injured as a success. I mean Brilliante played two games for Fiorentina after a great pre season and he hasnt had a successful Euro career. 

Also since his return from injury he has had about 3 clubs in 12 months which tells me that injury or not he left too early as he doesn't have the experience to draw on. He has been back from injury for over 12 months so the effects of the injury should be well behind him and i dont think its an excuse for him not playing anymore tbh. Plenty of players have ACL injuries and come back and actually play, but they have experience to draw on. 

Dont get me wrong he is a great player and still has potential to be a success in Europe, but it will be a lot harder for him now as he needs to take a drop in standard of the league he goes to just to get game time. So far Netherlands and Denmark have not worked out so he needs to consider a smaller team in those leagues, or a smaller league where he will play (like croatia). That is of course unless he finds a coach who knows him and will give him opportunity like Ange, or Bert, etc

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jas88 - 27 Jul 2021 12:05 PM
not sure its just about dominating... Maclaren been banging inn 20 goals a season since he was 21/22 but couldn't make it overseas.

I think its a mentality issue, the guys stronger mentally make it like Mabil, Leckie, etc. Then you have Arzani who thrives on self confidence when its low he's horrid.

it is very difficult thriving overseas, particularly if there is a language barrier

not many can do it, which is why you need a strong domestic league if you ever really want to be world class

Actually even south america hasn't won a world cup in around 20 years now. Football has basically become a domestic league arms race
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not sure its just about dominating... Maclaren been banging inn 20 goals a season since he was 21/22 but couldn't make it overseas.

I think its a mentality issue, the guys stronger mentally make it like Mabil, Leckie, etc. Then you have Arzani who thrives on self confidence when its low he's horrid.
Edited
4 Years Ago by jas88
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Bunch of Hacks - 26 Jul 2021 6:28 PM
grazorblade - 25 Jul 2021 8:24 AM

Fair enough but again you're not mentioning that the GG and 97/01 generation were all exposed to senior football at a much younger age than the current gen. They might be leaving with same amount of games but they are older now, 20 21 wheras the generations I talk about above were leaving at 17 18 as the players now are exposed later. Addionally players leave now and come back. Before they'd  leave and not come back which expanded our national playing pool 

Yeah the GG dominated the domestic league before leaving at a younger age. So part of it is more opportunities and part of it is they still we just a fraction better. This generation has appeared to catch up to that generation quite a bit going by a league stats

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eqQLMuqS8RXhyNtfpL-PgSPIXXiQDdNZiNoyB0p5k6k/edit?usp=sharing
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inala brah - 26 Jul 2021 7:14 PM
grazorblade - 25 Jul 2021 12:22 AM

Im going to disagree that our squad is lacking the existing experience to takes offers o/s.  the issue is more the steep step up in intensity of the comps (and their training and schedules) between the a league and european leagues (as demonstrated by the high injury rate of of players headed o/s) 

And for some perspective - they are generally in the mid range of the examples listed above..

Tom Glover 42 Club 18 Caps
Nathaniel Aktinson 71 Club 23 NPL 6 Caps
Kye Rowles 81 Club  8 NPL/COE 16 Caps
Jay Rich 29 (English lower leagues) 5 Caps
Harry Souttar 98 Club 14 Caps
Keanu Bacchus 86 32 NPL 18 Caps
Reno Piscopo 88 Club 25 Caps
Riley McGree 84 Club 14 Caps
Nich D'Agostino 63 Club 11 Caps
Denis Genreau 44 Club 44 NPL 9 Caps
Arzani 39 Club 20 COE 6 NPL 20 Caps
Dylan Pieras 50 Club 37 NPL 16 Caps
Thomas Deng 90 Club 43 NPL and Jong PSV 22 Caps
Caleb Watts 3 Club (EPL) 12 Caps
Joel King 55 Club 27 NPL 29 COE 2 Caps
Connor Metcalfe 41 Club 29 NPL 9 Caps
Ashley Brewer 28 English Lower Leagues 2 Caps
Marco Messi Tilio 25 Club 16 NPL 12 Caps
Lachy Wales 88 Club 52 NPL 4 Caps
Devlin 51 Club 48 NPL 3 Caps
Jordan Holmes 34 UK lower leagues 12 Caps








yeah fair point, covid and better youth helped the players a ton

Some of them look more ready than others going by stats, which of course don't show everything

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eqQLMuqS8RXhyNtfpL-PgSPIXXiQDdNZiNoyB0p5k6k/edit?usp=sharing

Daggers and atkinson haven't gotten as much game time as their stats would warrent

I suspect devlin and baccus could walk into the starting eleven of a buli 2 or a championship side
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jaymz - 26 Jul 2021 1:21 PM
grazorblade - 26 Jul 2021 10:38 AM

Yep and thats why we need to change the conversation. 21 should be seen as not young, which would encourage us to give younger players ago.

Agree we do need to lengthen the season. A 16 team league would mean 30 games per season, add in finals and FFA cup on average you could bump it to on average to say 35 which would mean in 2.5 - 3 seasons our players will be at the 100 game mark give or take. If a player is 17-18 when starting that takes them to 20-21 which is a good age to go to Europe. You also as you say need to be dominating the league. 

Arzani is a great example of a player who was dominating and then left too early. 

Arzani left too early?! Mate the guy did an acl ! 

Before that starred in the celtic reserve side and should have had an assist with his first touch (think it was leigh Griffiths who fluffed the shot). Was absolutely tearing it up for the 15 mins he was on in that game like he did at the world cup before his knee collapsed. 

Had that not have happened he was primed to cement his spot and kick on. 
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quickflick - 25 Jul 2021 5:26 PM
grazorblade - 25 Jul 2021 12:22 AM

So basically aside from Brett Emerton, the best of that bunch played a couple of seasons max in Aus before leaving and were still no older than 20 when they left. Emerton only having just turned 21 when he went Dutch.

Meanwhile, the two most significant players of that generation left without having played a single minute of senior football in Australia; Harry Kewell and Tim Cahill. Lucas Neill also left without a senior game.

From that, my inference is that talented young footballers should be well gone from Australian shores before the age of 21 if they wish to become a notable player in the big 4-5 leagues. If they wish to become world-class, then they need to leave in their teens.

The technical quality gap (however small) between Australian footballers and European footballers only increases from the early teenage years. By the age of 21, that gap is a gulf. It's necessary to be competing at the highest level possible as young as possible. This is no different in any other sport. World-class youth footballers aren't exactly flocking to Australia to develop their footballing skills.

Agree with this. And also the more players who leave early the more spots it opens up for other young players 
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Barca4Life - 25 Jul 2021 11:38 PM
I would be shocked if Atkinson doesnt get serious attention from Euro clubs after this, he's been outstanding a shame about the brain fade yellow card which has costed him a suspension in the last game.

I would be funny if Celtic made a move for him given they really need a right back of decent quality....

imo atkinson is as good as someone like zinchenko at man city

problem with celtic in uk is that the visa requires he plays a certain% of NT games in the previous year - its either 60 or 70 % for us depending on where we are on the world rakings (less percentage for higher ranks countries - i think top 10 only need 20%) elsewhere in england the homegrown rule makes local prospects more enticing - same as our foreign player caps.  unless of course he can get or has a euro/uk visa.





 




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grazorblade - 25 Jul 2021 12:22 AM
Bunch of Hacks - 24 Jul 2021 9:55 PM

Actually the vast majority of the golden gen established themselves here before moving overeas
Here is the oz domestic games before transferring for those who started here

Emerton: 94
Chipperfield: 134
Viduka: 48
Bresciano: 37
Aloisi: 21
Culina: 53
Vince Grella: 53
Schwarzer: 58
Vidmar: 134
Skoko: 32
popovic: 167
sterjovski: 73
lazaridis: 101

Compare to recent aussie players who made it at a high level and started here  (ucl or big 5) 
Jedinak: 137
Mooyzil: 102
leckie: 35 
kruse: 59
rogic: 32 (including loan spell)
Matt ryan: 80
Mabil: 61


More important than number of games of course is whether you are dominating the domestic league. At least 4 turnovers per game for a defender and at least 1 goal scorer point per 2 games for an attacker. Arzani probably would have made it if he didn't do his knee, now it is very tricky to come back because he doesn't have a wealth of experience to draw on. Many of these olyroos players simply need to get more experience before going over

Im going to disagree that our squad is lacking the existing experience to takes offers o/s.  the issue is more the steep step up in intensity of the comps (and their training and schedules) between the a league and european leagues (as demonstrated by the high injury rate of of players headed o/s) 

And for some perspective - they are generally in the mid range of the examples listed above..

Tom Glover 42 Club 18 Caps
Nathaniel Aktinson 71 Club 23 NPL 6 Caps
Kye Rowles 81 Club  8 NPL/COE 16 Caps
Jay Rich 29 (English lower leagues) 5 Caps
Harry Souttar 98 Club 14 Caps
Keanu Bacchus 86 32 NPL 18 Caps
Reno Piscopo 88 Club 25 Caps
Riley McGree 84 Club 14 Caps
Nich D'Agostino 63 Club 11 Caps
Denis Genreau 44 Club 44 NPL 9 Caps
Arzani 39 Club 20 COE 6 NPL 20 Caps
Dylan Pieras 50 Club 37 NPL 16 Caps
Thomas Deng 90 Club 43 NPL and Jong PSV 22 Caps
Caleb Watts 3 Club (EPL) 12 Caps
Joel King 55 Club 27 NPL 29 COE 2 Caps
Connor Metcalfe 41 Club 29 NPL 9 Caps
Ashley Brewer 28 English Lower Leagues 2 Caps
Marco Messi Tilio 25 Club 16 NPL 12 Caps
Lachy Wales 88 Club 52 NPL 4 Caps
Devlin 51 Club 48 NPL 3 Caps
Jordan Holmes 34 UK lower leagues 12 Caps









 




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grazorblade - 25 Jul 2021 8:24 AM
Bunch of Hacks - 25 Jul 2021 2:03 AM

those are the outliers and only aloisi has a comparable number of games to arzani and tillio. The average number of domestic games here for both recent and GG players was around 70-80 games. We've seen most of our best leave too early and amount to nothing. The players who did make it weren't necessarily the best, but seemed to make the right career choices. There was probably a bunch of wasted talent around then as well who left too early

I agree it would be nice to have players get more games at a younger age. Hopefully a 2nd division will help that

Fair enough but again you're not mentioning that the GG and 97/01 generation were all exposed to senior football at a much younger age than the current gen. They might be leaving with same amount of games but they are older now, 20 21 wheras the generations I talk about above were leaving at 17 18 as the players now are exposed later. Addionally players leave now and come back. Before they'd  leave and not come back which expanded our national playing pool 
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tsf - 26 Jul 2021 3:52 PM
jaymz - 26 Jul 2021 1:21 PM

He didn't even dominate though did he?

he did in 1v1s but not assists and goals

similar to rogic when he left

probably would have been ok if he didn't do an acl, but it does make a setback like this harder to overcome
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talk about sugar coating a player.


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jaymz - 26 Jul 2021 1:21 PM
grazorblade - 26 Jul 2021 10:38 AM


Arzani is a great example of a player who was dominating and then left too early. 

He didn't even dominate though did he?
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kaufusi - 26 Jul 2021 2:26 PM
Is this just some random post where people wildly speculate about where they'd like to see players sign, and if so what's the point?

Yes its called a bit of fun... gotta do something in lockdown
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Aljay - 26 Jul 2021 2:53 PM
I think Deng has shown himself to be the equal of Souttar, who plays in the Championship. He could play there, or Holland, Belgium, Buli.2, Switzerland etc. 

That being said, Japan seems to be working out pretty well for him. Almost all our players who go over there end up improving.

Deng has hardly played this season. Desperately needs a move.
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I think Deng has shown himself to be the equal of Souttar, who plays in the Championship. He could play there, or Holland, Belgium, Buli.2, Switzerland etc. 

That being said, Japan seems to be working out pretty well for him. Almost all our players who go over there end up improving.

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Atkinson would be the one, wasn't able to get forward much last night but defensively superb against Puado then Gil. Both established La Liga players.

Sociedad look short a RB haha..
Edited
4 Years Ago by jas88
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Is this just some random post where people wildly speculate about where they'd like to see players sign, and if so what's the point?
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jaymz - 26 Jul 2021 1:21 PM
grazorblade - 26 Jul 2021 10:38 AM

Yep and thats why we need to change the conversation. 21 should be seen as not young, which would encourage us to give younger players ago.

Agree we do need to lengthen the season. A 16 team league would mean 30 games per season, add in finals and FFA cup on average you could bump it to on average to say 35 which would mean in 2.5 - 3 seasons our players will be at the 100 game mark give or take. If a player is 17-18 when starting that takes them to 20-21 which is a good age to go to Europe. You also as you say need to be dominating the league. 

Arzani is a great example of a player who was dominating and then left too early. 

yeah an extra half dozen games a year shortens the time needed here for our best players by a full season and gives them a chance to become world class overseas


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