Youtube analysis: why is soccer on the decline in australia?


Youtube analysis: why is soccer on the decline in australia?

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grazorblade
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This video here is quite detailed and is mostly accurate for a foreign video

It hits a lot of points people have been making, some of the solutions seem easier than others


1) too many foreign players in the a league
2) lack of second division
3) lack of connection up and down the football pyramid
4) expensive private academies
5) over-reliance on physicality on results at youth level
6) the decline of the ais
7) the decline of high profile youth friendlies against other big country 
8) not enough games per year at all levels
9) entrance to the afc means lots of our best end up in low quality leagues getting huge money
10) entrance to afc means qualifying less often for the youth world cup

Some of these problems are more fixable than others. 5 arguably is fixed, 2 will allegedly be fixed within a year or 2, 9 and 10 I don't think matters as much as I used to think. Of the remaining only 1 is easy to fix without enormous financial risk. 3 might be fixed in a decade and I would be surprised if 8 is fixed in my lifetime. There is some hope that when P and R comes that will fix 4


Anyway what are people's thoughts
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There's no simple answer as to high costs for kids unless clubs become massive like they are in Europe and they're worth hundreds of millions of dollars where they can subsidise talent and/or we land a $2.5 billion TV deal like the AFL has.


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I watch a lot of his videos and I feel this one is quiet poor when compared to his usual ones.

I don’t agree with reducing the amount of foreigners in the league and I don’t know where he got the argument of reduction them to 2 from. The main number I see is going to 3+1 which wasn’t mentioned at all.

Lack of second division and lack of connected pyramid are obvious issues but he fails to mention the mooted NSD and the challenges to get it up and running as well as connecting the pyramid. It’s easy to point out issues, but he should come up with potential solutions or talk about why the reasons why these things aren’t in place.

Expensive private academies are shit and you don’t need to join one to make it as a pro. Also I feel he should mention the cost of registration fees and the fact that NPL clubs use these fees to pay their first team players which just shouldn’t happen.

Having the AIS is pointless now that A-League clubs have their own youth systems. What’s the point of relocating these kids to Canberra when they can stay at home and actually be at a pro club?

Points 7 and 8 are very accurate but the biggest barrier is the cost and how these would be funded. I feel he should’ve spoken about that too.

9 is accurate but nothing we can really do about it.

10 is a consequence of playing in a stronger confederation.

I was disappointed that he didn’t mention that not only A-League clubs are playing more youth players, the youth players are also better which is why results at youth level are improving and why many players have gone overseas in the last couple of years. This really should have been mentioned but it wasn’t.


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Munrubenmuz - 14 Jul 2022 1:23 PM
There's no simple answer as to high costs for kids unless clubs become massive like they are in Europe and they're worth hundreds of millions of dollars where they can subsidise talent and/or we land a $2.5 billion TV deal like the AFL has.

yeah this seems like a very hard problem to fix to be honest

Every few days I hear a story about some kid who couldn't afford to play football but got paid to play afl. Part of my reaction is "well AFL, like the EPL gets a ton of money from being a megarich league"

I asked if we really had free academies back in the nsl days and someone replied that only the ais was. (Is this true?) So perhaps its hard to solve

having said that, it does seem a lot cheaper to play youth football in canada. So I'm curious how to avoid that
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sub007 - 14 Jul 2022 1:23 PM
I watch a lot of his videos and I feel this one is quiet poor when compared to his usual ones.

I don’t agree with reducing the amount of foreigners in the league and I don’t know where he got the argument of reduction them to 2 from. The main number I see is going to 3+1 which wasn’t mentioned at all.

Lack of second division and lack of connected pyramid are obvious issues but he fails to mention the mooted NSD and the challenges to get it up and running as well as connecting the pyramid. It’s easy to point out issues, but he should come up with potential solutions or talk about why the reasons why these things aren’t in place.

Expensive private academies are shit and you don’t need to join one to make it as a pro. Also I feel he should mention the cost of registration fees and the fact that NPL clubs use these fees to pay their first team players which just shouldn’t happen.

Having the AIS is pointless now that A-League clubs have their own youth systems. What’s the point of relocating these kids to Canberra when they can stay at home and actually be at a pro club?

Points 7 and 8 are very accurate but the biggest barrier is the cost and how these would be funded. I feel he should’ve spoken about that too.

9 is accurate but nothing we can really do about it.

10 is a consequence of playing in a stronger confederation.

I was disappointed that he didn’t mention that not only A-League clubs are playing more youth players, the youth players are also better which is why results at youth level are improving and why many players have gone overseas in the last couple of years. This really should have been mentioned but it wasn’t.


On reducing the foreigners issue what is your reservation?
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grazorblade - 14 Jul 2022 1:29 PM
sub007 - 14 Jul 2022 1:23 PM

On reducing the foreigners issue what is your reservation?

That there’s a huge gap between the best and worst players in the league. For example, club like CCM sells a bunch of players overseas, they are fucked because they have huge, gaping holes in their squad and would have limited to no options to replace those players adequately if they were restricted to just two foreigners.
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sub007 - 14 Jul 2022 1:37 PM
grazorblade - 14 Jul 2022 1:29 PM

That there’s a huge gap between the best and worst players in the league. For example, club like CCM sells a bunch of players overseas, they are fucked because they have huge, gaping holes in their squad and would have limited to no options to replace those players adequately if they were restricted to just two foreigners.

fair point

it does seem though that the last year where more spots opened up due to covid the quality did alright. It seems that scouting in Australia isn't great and who ends up playing well enough at a league level becomes a random process. 
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3 Years Ago by grazorblade
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BECAUSE OF GREED AND MISMANAGEMENT SOCBALL HAS DECLINED, AND THE SAME REASONS CONTINUE TODAY.
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Didn't nearly all of our Golden Generation have European parents? Not many come to Australia anymore. 
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banzai - 14 Jul 2022 2:51 PM
Didn't nearly all of our Golden Generation have European parents? Not many come to Australia anymore. 

sure seems to help Genreau (a fine player but doubt he would have the same success if he had no french connection)
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sub007 - 14 Jul 2022 1:37 PM
grazorblade - 14 Jul 2022 1:29 PM

That there’s a huge gap between the best and worst players in the league. For example, club like CCM sells a bunch of players overseas, they are fucked because they have huge, gaping holes in their squad and would have limited to no options to replace those players adequately if they were restricted to just two foreigners.

Need to create a "development contract" which allows teams to sign players under 23 for up to a 3 year period and the wages are subsided by the FFA but are not included in the salary cap. This will allow more youth players in the squad at a low cost to the club. They already do this in the NRL.
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3 Years Ago by jas88
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jas88 - 14 Jul 2022 3:21 PM
sub007 - 14 Jul 2022 1:37 PM

Need to create a "development contract" which allows teams to sign players under 23 for up to a 3 year period and the wages are subsided by the FFA but are not included in the salary cap. This will allow more youth players in the squad at a low cost to the club. They already do this in the NRL.

You basically described what a scholarship contract is except the club pays it.

Clubs also have to have a minimum of 3 U23 players on senior contracts (not scholarships) anyway. 
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sub007 - 14 Jul 2022 1:23 PM
Having the AIS is pointless now that A-League clubs have their own youth systems. What’s the point of relocating these kids to Canberra when they can stay at home and actually be at a pro club?

This is the dumbest post I've ever read on here. The French would never ever get rid of their Clairefontaine academy. Never... as the players have a 90% chance of going pro if they make it. I'm sure the AIS was putting out similar numbers. 
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jas88 - 14 Jul 2022 3:25 PM
sub007 - 14 Jul 2022 1:23 PM

This is the dumbest post I've ever read on here. The French would never ever get rid of their Clairefontaine academy. Never... as the players have a 90% chance of going pro if they make it. I'm sure the AIS was putting out similar numbers. 

Towards the back end of the program it wasn’t and given the high costs to run it, there’s no point in keeping it going. In the video it said by the end around 50% (I can’t remember the number exactly) never even played pro football.

Why have one national academy when you can have 11 around the country aligned with their local A-League club?
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sub007 - 14 Jul 2022 3:29 PM
jas88 - 14 Jul 2022 3:25 PM

Towards the back end of the program it wasn’t and given the high costs to run it, there’s no point in keeping it going. In the video it said by the end around 50% (I can’t remember the number exactly) never even played pro football.

Why have one national academy when you can have 11 around the country aligned with their local A-League club?

what was the budget out of curiosity?
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grazorblade - 14 Jul 2022 4:05 PM
sub007 - 14 Jul 2022 3:29 PM

what was the budget out of curiosity?

Can’t remember but it’s in the video
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jas88 - 14 Jul 2022 3:25 PM
sub007 - 14 Jul 2022 1:23 PM

This is the dumbest post I've ever read on here. The French would never ever get rid of their Clairefontaine academy. Never... as the players have a 90% chance of going pro if they make it. I'm sure the AIS was putting out similar numbers. 

Clairfontaine isn't equivalent to the AIS though. It's only designed to serve the Ile-de-France region which includes Paris. The French have equivalent academies in all the other regions as well. 

The French system is closer to our current system with the state based NTCs and then going to A League teams after 16. 

Probably no cause to be rude and call people dumb if you're not even providing correct information. 
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100% on the money with most, but I don't agree with #10. Youth world cup qualification probably accounts for, what, 3-6 games against high quality to mid tier quality nations in a players entire career?  


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Capac - 14 Jul 2022 4:44 PM
jas88 - 14 Jul 2022 3:25 PM

Clairfontaine isn't equivalent to the AIS though. It's only designed to serve the Ile-de-France region which includes Paris. The French have equivalent academies in all the other regions as well. 

The French system is closer to our current system with the state based NTCs and then going to A League teams after 16. 

Probably no cause to be rude and call people dumb if you're not even providing correct information. 

Doesn't change the fact it was a balls-up to scrap the AIS and State sports-institutes' ⚽ programs. If it was bc they weren't 'producing the goods' I venture to say that's an indictment on the quality of personnel at the time and not the concept as a whole.


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This seems a good place to put some research I was doing into the AIS.  The following is from the start of the AIS football  program in 1981 up to 2009 when FFA changed it to an u16 program instead of a program to prepare young footballers for the u20 World Cup and to be professional footballers.

There were 434 players who went to the AIS for 1 or 2 years over the 28 years of the original program.
105 of them were selected in the u20 national team to play in the world cup.
41 of them were selected to represent Australia at the Olympic Games.
50 of them were capped as Socceroos.
There were 260 Socceroos capped over the 28 years.

A quick assessment of last names showed about 60% of them had "ethnic" last names while 40% of them had "anglo" last names.  Prior to 1986 there were generally more anglo than "ethnic" young players.  From 1986 to around 2000 "ethnic" players were strongly more represented than "anglo" young players.  Since 2000 the mix was much closer with "ethnic" young players still in the ascendancy.

NB.  I may have missed a player or 2 here and there so the numbers may not be totally accurate.



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BA81 - 14 Jul 2022 5:27 PM
Capac - 14 Jul 2022 4:44 PM

Doesn't change the fact it was a balls-up to scrap the AIS and State sports-institutes' ⚽ programs. If it was bc they weren't 'producing the goods' I venture to say that's an indictment on the quality of personnel at the time and not the concept as a whole.

Pretty sure the state based elite programs are still there. The major difference is these kids now stay in the pathway only until 16 much like the French system. 

After that they get funnelled into the club system, much like the French system. 
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Capac - 14 Jul 2022 4:44 PM
jas88 - 14 Jul 2022 3:25 PM

Clairfontaine isn't equivalent to the AIS though. It's only designed to serve the Ile-de-France region which includes Paris. The French have equivalent academies in all the other regions as well. 
Probably no cause to be rude and call people dumb if you're not even providing correct information. 

You are right, I apologise for calling you dumb. I do know that the players at that clairefontane academy do still get to go home on weekend and play for their clubs. I'm not sure if that was happening at the AIS. 

Migrants from poor areas in Paris produce some of their best players, so we need to find a way for these poorer kids to get their chance.
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3 Years Ago by jas88
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I watched it, it feels quite an negative outlook on the problems with youth development here but most of it is even as an outside view it's quite accurate.

And that's the thing, the outside perception of the Socceroos is the lack of quality names which the 2006 generation had which these days you would find to find one player that is recognisable and that is speaking from Europe where im based at.
The author mentions the USA and Canada's new generation of players, meanwhile our profile has dropped quite alot and overall our perception is not great from an international perspective even by making world cups.

If we want to change this then more emphasis has to be on youth development and that's not just in our own backyard with more integrated elite youth academies (I personally feel the NPL system along with the support of NTC doesnt do enough as it needs more resources which is why we need more professional clubs who can fund more full time academies like what we see with some a-league academies but it needs more depth.
Ideally you have an clairefontaine system but geo. distances make this almost impossible except on a state level.

But also we need more exposure to international football, something that is forgotten quite alot is the GG had been exposed to alot of youth football from overseas whether it be youth world cups/olympics but also international friendlies and tournaments from around the world which helped them prepare for the level from overseas and therefore got into the eyes of scouts.
The lack of youth national team action is quite alarming which Football Aus have not addressed enough even before COVID, they dont even have a permanent national TD to prioritise this right now!

The cost of playing football is a big problem too but goes back to elite academies and the NPL isnt strong enough to fund this properly which is why parents pay alot to cover the clubs fees, I think the NPL needs changing to reduce costs and centralise elite development to ones that can do it and afford it.


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3 Years Ago by Barca4Life
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grazorblade - 14 Jul 2022 4:05 PM
sub007 - 14 Jul 2022 3:29 PM

what was the budget out of curiosity?

The problem is before the AIS was closed a-league academies started to come in and maybe the best players that not choose that path to go to Canberra?
But I feel the AIS or FFA COE would have been still be useful especially for the women's program or for kids that dont come from major cities that dont have an a-league team that need that elite development training.

I also remember Ron Smith was saying they changed the age group intake as well so I wonder if that was something to do it as well.
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1) too many foreign players in the a league - agree
2) lack of second division - agree 
3) lack of connection up and down the football pyramid - agree 
4) expensive private academies - somewhat agree but cost isnt that bad 
5) over-reliance on physicality on results at youth level - disagree 
6) the decline of the ais - somewhat agree 
7) the decline of high profile youth friendlies against other big country - agree but this is more the 'cost' of playing games have become ridiculous blame the PFA  
8) not enough games per year at all levels - agree professional teams should be playing at least 40-50 competitive games a season plus pre-season 
9) entrance to the afc means lots of our best end up in low quality leagues getting huge money - agree 
10) entrance to afc means qualifying less often for the youth world cup - agree 

this is pretty spot on overall and i have been saying almost all these things for over a decade

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Edited
3 Years Ago by Davstar
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Gyfox - 14 Jul 2022 6:16 PM
This seems a good place to put some research I was doing into the AIS.  The following is from the start of the AIS football  program in 1981 up to 2009 when FFA changed it to an u16 program instead of a program to prepare young footballers for the u20 World Cup and to be professional footballers.

There were 434 players who went to the AIS for 1 or 2 years over the 28 years of the original program.
105 of them were selected in the u20 national team to play in the world cup.
41 of them were selected to represent Australia at the Olympic Games.
50 of them were capped as Socceroos.
There were 260 Socceroos capped over the 28 years.

A quick assessment of last names showed about 60% of them had "ethnic" last names while 40% of them had "anglo" last names.  Prior to 1986 there were generally more anglo than "ethnic" young players.  From 1986 to around 2000 "ethnic" players were strongly more represented than "anglo" young players.  Since 2000 the mix was much closer with "ethnic" young players still in the ascendancy.

NB.  I may have missed a player or 2 here and there so the numbers may not be totally accurate.



That's interesting Gyfox... I would,say that alot of the "ethnic" surnames would not have ventured outside their junior clubs until the NSL had been going for a few years and the "trust" for lack of a better word between the clubs and Soccer Australia was more evident with time..... 
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Barca4Life - 14 Jul 2022 7:18 PM
I watched it, it feels quite an negative outlook on the problems with youth development here but most of it is even as an outside view it's quite accurate.

And that's the thing, the outside perception of the Socceroos is the lack of quality names which the 2006 generation had which these days you would find to find one player that is recognisable and that is speaking from Europe where im based at.
The author mentions the USA and Canada's new generation of players, meanwhile our profile has dropped quite alot and overall our perception is not great from an international perspective even by making world cups.

If we want to change this then more emphasis has to be on youth development and that's not just in our own backyard with more integrated elite youth academies (I personally feel the NPL system along with the support of NTC doesnt do enough as it needs more resources which is why we need more professional clubs who can fund more full time academies like what we see with some a-league academies but it needs more depth.
Ideally you have an clairefontaine system but geo. distances make this almost impossible except on a state level.

But also we need more exposure to international football, something that is forgotten quite alot is the GG had been exposed to alot of youth football from overseas whether it be youth world cups/olympics but also international friendlies and tournaments from around the world which helped them prepare for the level from overseas and therefore got into the eyes of scouts.
The lack of youth national team action is quite alarming which Football Aus have not addressed enough even before COVID, they dont even have a permanent national TD to prioritise this right now!

The cost of playing football is a big problem too but goes back to elite academies and the NPL isnt strong enough to fund this properly which is why parents pay alot to cover the clubs fees, I think the NPL needs changing to reduce costs and centralise elite development to ones that can do it and afford it
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It's only the NPL clubs and private and Aleague academies charging parents an arm and a leg ( I think a handful of Aleague clubs are now subsidised by the owners???) and it appears the major reason is the financial implications of artificial licensing and structural rules they need to abide by as per the governing body.... The fish rots from the head they say....  Grassroots clubs in successfull countries like Brazil, and Argentina, as per the vid,  dont have a TD, a football operatIons manager, an FFA licensed coach at every single age level, etc etc etc.... they just PLAY A LOT OF GAMES....
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Well, listening to that was a waste of time.  Everyone in football in Australia knows the limitations of what we have and we know it better than he does.

I don't think things are as bad as he painted.  We have a professional league.  We have clubs in that professional league with teams down to u13 that have professional support staff and some of those clubs charge no fees.  Some of the clubs have high quality training grounds with multiple pitches and off field facilities etc.  Below the top tier we have a planned NSD thanks to the AAFC and JJ driving it in FA.  As I understand it there will be P/R from the NSD down.  We have state NPL's where clubs are required to meet licensing criteria and below that we have regional leagues and community football that is growing numerically.  

Sure we have a long way to go to get all the professional clubs with the full suite of professional facilities and no charge academies.  We have a long way to go before the NSD is fully professional and all that entails.  We have a long way to go to get the transfer system functioning across all levels.  We have a long way to go to get the numbers of players in the AFL states up to scratch.  etc., etc..  The positive thing is that at last we are moving in the right direction... slowly.



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3 Years Ago by Gyfox
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Another great thread, Grazor.
 
Thanks.

However, this is produced by a person with limited insight into football. It is more echoing what has been previously written by Aussie  journalists with little and  limited  insight into football to be able to analyse it - with a degree of authority.

I agree:

* Private academies are a big problem - having undertaken them to get extra quality coaching. It should be free and easily accessible. Children who  don't come from wealthy families struggle to access better coaching that is free.

* The A L youth teams don't play enough games against other high calibre opposition in Australia.

* It costs too much money to play junior and youth football in Australia compared to other sports.

Having said this, this video has been produced by an Anglocentric perspective about Aussie football.  There is not a great deal of awareness about football beyond the English Channel, or any veritable insight of football specific performance criteria. Until recently the English Football Association thought football ended at the English Channel too. Since the English FA have changed a little, English  youth teams have improved immeasurably in international football.
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One argument in particular to  counter the essence of this  video, with quite a few populist, but spurious premises,  is this.

There are only 9-11 teams that have qualified for the last five World Cups in succession.  There are 2008, possibly more now, registered FIFA football playing nations.

*Europe
Spain
England
France
Germany
Switzerland

I'm not sure if Portugal have achieved this too? I know Croatia missed out in 2010.

*Asia
Japan
South Korea
Australia 

Have Iran qualified for the last five WCs?

*Africa
Now that Nigeria has failed to qualify for the Qatar WC, I'm not sure any African football nation has achieved five successive WCs in a row?

*CONMEBOL
Brazil
Argentina

We stopped  Uruguay in 2006.

*CONCACAF
Mexico


The next question should be posed, why have Australia qualified five times in succession?

It can't be argued that Asia is simply a weak Confederation. That is because Australia has beaten:

CONMEBOL twice in WC sudden death play offs - against Uruguay 2006 and Peru 2022. 

Australia has also beaten CONCACAF once in a sudden WC  death intercontinental  play off - against Honduras in 2018.

Australia have only directly qualified via Asian WCQers exclusively - twice - in 2010 and 2014.

One of the reasons,   not touched on by any of the 6 GGs in a video posted on here, is that the National Curriculum has been installed. It has put great emphasis on training   Aussie coaches and having quality European powerhouse based coach education imparted in Australia.

Prior to Rob Baan and Han Berger's Football Aus TD tenures, coaching was ad hoc all over the country. There was no consistency whatsoever. There might have been  good coaching occurring at one club, or with one team, or a team in a suburb close by, but there was a lot of shonky  coaching occurring in many settings. This was because there was no national coaching system established with European based methodology to ensure a  mandated level of  quality everywhere.

This has led to far better tactical coaching by Aussie trained domestic coaches - in the Socceroos, Matildas, A League, W League, A L Academies, NPL clubs - senior, youth, junior. Any coach who does  C Licence ( Semi - Pro and Pro) and beyond, has to undertake comprehensive match analysis training, and, has been trained to plan coaching sessions on the training track, based on those problems identified in  the match performance of a team.  When, Who, Where, Why, What, How?

 To use  some technical terms:

*There are three  thirds of the pitch where coaches have to analyse Ball Possession and Ball Possession Opposition performance based on the previous game, or groups of games that a coach's team plays.

* Four man moments - BP, BPO, Attacking and Defensive Transitions.

* Communication and structure  to organise teams.  

In Ball Possession formations can  evolve depending on the phases of play -

eg 4-4-2 Ball Possession Opposition,

4- 2-3-1 in back and middle third of the pitch in Ball Possession,

then evolving to 4-3-3 alternating with 4-2-4 in the attacking third of the pitch for Ball Possession,

reverting to 4-4-2 in Defensive Transition.

The Socceroos did this against Peru, and particularly in the first half peruvian coach Gareco was going ballistic, because he couldn't counter the Aussie game plan. Ostensibly, Gareco is a  master coach in South America, but he struggled to combat Arnie's game plan. Meanwhile, Peru used a simple 4-3-3 defensive  midfield  triangle in Possession and and a  1:4 midfield 4-5-1 in BPO - a simple game plan to negate.
 
I think I'm correct in advancing this, but only the Czech coach of SFC after Kosmina and Butcher, has had any success since about 2010 when Aussie coaches were inculcated with the European powerhouse methodology from Football Aus coach education.

Since I think it has only been the parent countries of the national curriculum coach education, that have succeeded in Australia - French, Dutch, Spanish or German - which is a amalgam of how Aussie domestic coaches have been trained.

Despite not having improved technique  greatly ( which takes a long time), until the recent graduates of about 8 years of Skills Acquisition Program have started coming through in the last few years at under 23 and senior level, tactically our teams are usually very good.

Moreover, Australian national Under 16s, Under 17s, Under 20s and Under 23s, play a similar structure and formations as each other. It is easier for players to adapt to national team game plans as players  progress  through the underage ranks.

Australian teams in 2022, are able to play far better as team units, than even in 2006.

No matter how man GGs we had playing in European leagues, they were inexperienced playing international football until Pim's WCQ campaign starting in 2008. Playing  2 big sudden death games against Oceanian opposition,  2 big intercontinental two legged sudden death knocked out games, plus 3 games at the Federation Cup, amounted to 7 meaningful  competitive games prior to the 2008- 2010  Asian WCQing campaign.   
  
_Now we play something like 20 WCQers.

- 3 games at the WC

-Circa 8 Asian Cup qualifiers

-3-7 games at the Asian Cup

*7 meaningful  games every four years pre 2006 for the Socceroos. Now the Socceroos play 35 - 40 meaningful games every 4 years! The latter scenario is going to create a much more cohesive, battle hardened, match savvy team unit.  

The  video claims that the Socceroos were  used to big games at club level with the GG. True. But they weren't  at international level.

Our worst performance in the Asian Cup tournament  was probably 2007, where the GG struggled.
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