Is the SPL a good place for our youngsters to develop? A statistical comparison


Is the SPL a good place for our youngsters to develop? A statistical...

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grazorblade
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Just how different is the SPL from the A league? To the naked eye, the eye league values playing the ball on the deck and working through the lines with lots of rhythm changes and patient build ups, as well as the occasional lightning quick transition. The SPL may not be hoofball, but outside of the Rangers/Celtic firm it does seem to be a much more physical league aided by very permissive refereeing. Quite frankly, as someone that has watched most of the matches involving our dozen aussies in the last season, it almost looks like a different sport
So how far is perception from reality? I looked at the total number of passes completed from the last 8 A league matches and compared it to the last 8 spl matches not involving the glasgow rivalry

A league: 758 
SPL: 465

The A league has nearly twice as many completed passes in a match compared to the SPL outside the old firm. This is despite the fact that the A league is played in summer which leads to a drop of 10% in total passes per game compared to winter football [1]. Note that this is NOT a comparison of quality, but just a mere comparison of style. It is hard enough to go half way across the world away from your support networks, play at a completely different temperature to play a style you haven’t developed the skill set for. It is a positive reflection of the players, and perhaps a negative reflection on the league, that most of them have played regularly.
So how does this compare to the Holy Trinity (™) of leagues that our players have found great success in over the last 10 years? Unsurprisingly, they are pretty similar to the A league. To be fair I excluded Ajax, Feyenoord, Club Brugge and Anderlecht from the Eredivise and Juliper league in my stats for the last 8 games

Eredivisie: 697
Buli 2: 670
Belgium: 629

In fact, even the championship is significantly less physical than the a league averaging 622 passes in the last 8 games. Again, I am NOT equating passes with game with quality, just saying how hard it is to adjust to a style that is an outlier in world footballer. Second, it seems the highest level has much harsher refereeing than the SPL with much more passes per matches, signifying that the A league and the Holy Trinity (™) and even the championship are much better preparation for the highest level. Here are the stats of the last 8 matches

EPL (excluding Man city and Arsenal): 725
UEFA CL (R16 1st leg:) 848
World cup R16: 917
Socceroos: 789 

Note the socceroos average is brought down slightly by the fact that the ref allowed a rugby match in the 2nd ecuador game. The first match had 813 passes and the 2nd had 693.
All this begs the question of whether it is wise for our best and brightest over the past year go to the SPL to develop? I'm not going to be dogmatic, maybe the familiar culture, the fact that most of our roos are getting time and the incentive to bulk up as a player are positives that outweigh the negatives. But count me skeptical

Notes:
[1] https://www.theroar.com.au/2021/06/02/why-football-needs-to-be-a-winter-sport/
All data from FOTMOB


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