How stupid are they? NRL/AFL over the biggest sporting competition in the world?
Why are the other codes scared or do they just hate us?

Fair enough. But just replace "50,000+" with "44,000+" in my post above and my point remains unchanged.



Agreed, but that's not enough.



Is it definite that there can be 3 stadia per city? I had heard 2. Source appreciated if you have one. The reality is 3 in one city becomes extremely difficult from a logistical point of view anyway, and highly unlikely to be seen in a positive light when compared to other countries who will propose 10-12 distinct host cities.



And just how big an area is that 620,000 spread over?



Clearly we differ in our definitions of "credible". Each to their own.




Do you honestly think it makes sense to use the all time record attendances as a benchmark? The rugby union record (28,753) was set for the 2004 Super 14 final. Hardly representative. By the same logic, you could say the 31,000 capacity at MRS is under what Victory require given that their record attendance is over 55,000. The reality is 31,000 will be more than enough for Victory 99% of the time, and 25,000 is more than enough for Canberra 99% of the time. For the other 1% of the time, you just accept there will be a sell out and some people miss out. Or alternatively you build more huge stadia that won't even be half full most of the time, and see clubs get hammered on overpriced stadium deals for decades to come. Not to mention the detrimental impact it has on atmosphere at games (one of the big problems in the A League).

Anyway, my point here was simply that whether Canberra is involved or not, it won't affect our chances of getting the WC.

On the wider issue of whether we will be awarded the WC - if you choose to believe we will, that's fine by me, I guess only time will tell. I would genuinely love to be wrong about this - and that's not something I say lightly! Unfortunately though, all of the people talking up our bid are completely lacking in objectivity IMO. Remember it's not just a case of meeting minimum criteria set by FIFA, it's a case of convincing them that Australia would be a better host than all of the other countries bidding. And remember too that FIFA politics will come into it, and that's not something that is likely to help us much. We're not one of Blatter's pet projects like USA or S Africa.

My understanding is that one city can have two stadiums, and the remainder of the ten stadiums must be spread out across 10 cities.

Once viewed like that, you start to see that we can't even get past first base.

Canberra is pretty much out.

The Gold Coast can't be upgraded to the minimum of 43,000.

So we are only just able to make up 8 host cities (and some of these are an absolute stretch):

1. Sydney (2 stadiums)
2. Brisbane
3. Melbourne
4. Adelaide
5. Perth
6. Newcastle
7. Townsville
8. Wollongong

As I said a stretch!!

Then we need to find 3 more cities to have a stadium with 43,000 capacity.

But where??!!

Folks - forget about it -it's already looking impossible - and it has nothing to do with the NRL/AFL/Korfball, and everything to do with FFA incompetence and bungling.

Edited by pippinu: 28/10/2009 04:30:15 PM

... Were never going to host a world cup if AFL/NRL get in our way but the problem is that where getting into our own way... The FFA should play more Socceroos matches in Adelaide, Perth and Canberra... No fucking wonder they dont want to spend money on stadiums...

As I said at the start of my post on the 1st page, Andrew Barr could just be playing politics and IMO, think he is. I think this is just a ploy to try and get some funding from the Federal government. But either way, this still infuriates me that he has brought this up.

Anyway, I'd be very surprised if Canberra wasn't a host city for the World Cup, whenever we host it. I think we will expand or build a new stadium to meet the requirements.

I'd like to see this set-up:

ANZ Stadium
Etihad Stadium/SFS
MCG- even though it is oval shaped, it looks as though this is a certainty to play host. Read it somewhere.
Suncorp Stadium
Canberra Stadium
Energy Australia Stadium
Skilled Park
Dairy Farmers Stadium
New Perth Stadium
New Adelaide Stadium
Bluetongue Stadium
New Stadium somewhere- Tasmania?

I've just been reminded that The Age ran this story about six weeks ago:

http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2009/09/16/1252780357089.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1

it pretty much predicts where we are now, insufficient stadiums, and no state government wants to spend a cent on them.

Edited by pippinu: 28/10/2009 05:55:05 PM

I don't rely on the record attendance when determining a stadiums desired capacity but it does provide a quick indicator of whether there is a demand that is greater than current capacity. In the FIFA "Football Stadiums - Technical Recommendations and Requirements version 4 - 2007" the writers note that it is "not unusual for clubs to find that the provision of a bright, new, clean and comfortable stadium brings with it a dramatic increase in attendance levels". They suggest that a club might need to think of doubling its capacity rather than only increasing it by 50%. This may seem excessive but the writers are drawing on vast international investigation and design experience. They further recommend that any stadium that is intended to hold "major international football events" should not have a capacity less than 30,000. In preparing the "Northern Ireland Stadium Report" the Belfast City Council's consultants recommended a "build it to fill it" approach where the stadium capacity is sized so that it is full as often as possible. These two positions are the extremes in my view. Generally people don't feel comfortable in any venue that feels "empty" but they also don't feel comfortable in a venue where they feel "crowded". Putting rule of thumb figures on this they feel most comfortable in a space that is somewhere between 60-80% full. In order to allow for the growth that comes with a new venue I think sizing the stadium so that the current average attendance is at 60% capacity is close to the mark but should always be confirmed by detailed market research. The capacity calculated using that figure is what I put in my investigation and design brief. For Canberra, using that figure the calculated capacity is approximately 30,000. For Dairy Farmer's using that figure the calculated capacity is approximately 32,000. This is based on Union average attendances for Canberra and League average attendances for Dairy Farmer's over the last 5 years. I am beastly careless whether 30,000 or 35,000 is adopted post Cup for them but I do know that their current venues are undersized.

MRS was always undersized for Victory which is why they have retained a contract with Etihad Stadium to hold 5 games a year there.

The provision of new and upgraded stadiums for an event like the World Cup is unlike any other circumstance. Normally a stadium has to be paid for over its design life by the receipts from gate takings, pourage, catering, naming rights, advertising etc. The slug on a stadium hirer can be enormous. In the case of the Confederaions/World Cup the income generated by Government over an 18 month period, almost exclusively from international tourists, through taxes and other revenues normally recoups the entire cost of the provision of venues. For this reason venue hire costs for these stadiums should only be set at a level where operating, maintenance and depreciation costs are recovered not the capital cost as well. This is one of the positive legacies of holding such an event.

On the issue of whether we will win the right to host the World Cup I am not confident but my lack of confidence has nothing to do with our population, we are the 52nd largest population in the world, or our wealth, we are the 14th richest country in the world, but on the fact that FIFA will have had 2 relatively small income generating World Cup's in a row, South Africa and Brazil and will be looking to pocket a bonanza from a European Cup and the biggest money generator they have, a USA Cup. Depending on how the GFC has affected their finances we might be lucky and get 2022 between Europe 2018 and USA 2026.

This is the article that indicates 3 venues per city. There was another article that I am sure attributed the source as Jerome Valcke the FIFA General Secretary but I can't find it at the moment.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2009/feb/20/football-2018-world-cup-twickenham

I understand that England may actually submit 4 venues for London that FIFA can pick 3 from.

*Spanish accent*

such passion!