Bankers do sums: we have a 1.69% chance of winning the cup
DAVID SYGALL
May 23, 2010
The Socceroos have a better chance of winning the World Cup than Ghana. They have about four times as much chance of winning than Switzerland or Japan, more than double the chance of Chile, hosts South Africa or 1992 European champions Denmark, and considerably more than Paraguay and Cameroon.
In fact, the Socceroos are looking like such good things that Cristiano Ronaldo's Portugal side is rated only a 0.65 per cent better chance than Australia of holding the trophy aloft.
On the other hand, we have virtually no chance of hosting the World Cup in either 2018 or 2022, largely because of the tantrums thrown by officials from fellow domestic codes.
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Such are the findings of an outside-the-box view of sport's greatest show conducted by giant investment banking firm Goldman Sachs.
The probability study aims to provide a purely objective, mathematical view of each country's chances. Probability percentage is a result of translating FIFA rankings into odds, combined with the average of bookmakers' odds, to create an ''initial probability''. The results are adjusted according to each country's schedule.
The result for the Socceroos is a 1.69 per cent probability of winning the World Cup, ahead of Ghana (1.63), Denmark (0.74) and Japan (0.44). Brazil and Spain are best placed, with probabilities of 13.76 and 10.46 per cent respectively.
As to hosting the World Cup, the conclusion is that Australia and our Asian colleagues ''should get ready for 2026''. Australia is not even listed as a candidate for 2018. The analysis was conducted by Kevin Roberts, the editorial director of Sport Business Group and an expert on the commercialisation of sport.
Under the sub-heading ''Weaknesses'', Roberts writes: ''A population of just over 21 million provides only limited long-term benefits … While positioned as a bid to represent 'Asia', it does not offer the appeal to FIFA that a future 'Asian' World Cup in China [or India] would provide. Stadium infrastructure is lacking and difficulties remain in finding [and funding] an agreement with the other Australian sports leagues to share [and renovate] existing stadia.'' This has since largely been solved but mud sticks.
Roberts cites Australia's strengths as a welcoming nation that knows how to celebrate major events, with high-level government backing for the bid and a real desire to grow football, which is still an emerging sport.
The 2018 tournament will almost certainly be held in Europe. A 24-man FIFA executive committee will announce the decision on December 2. They come from 24 nations, but eight, plus president Sepp Blatter, are from Europe. The others are split between the other world confederations.
''With FIFA's regulations forbidding a continent from hosting back-to-back World Cups, the competition to host the 2022 event will thus come down to a competition between the US, Australia, Qatar, Japan and South Korea,'' Roberts writes.
For 2022, however, the report says the US would be favoured, as it would provide 5 million sold-out seats and the ''most profitable World Cup in history'', plenty of infrastructure and the unanimous support of its federation. A weakness is that the US hosted the Cup in 1994.
Qatar is seen as very rich and ''financially well-positioned to provide FIFA with the best money can buy'', though the tournament would be played in extreme heat in a country with a small population. Japan, one of the world's biggest economies, co-hosted the Cup in 2002, which will count against it, as with Korea.
''If the 2022 event were to be awarded to Japan, Australia, Qatar or Korea, it could be a very long time before the World Cup returns to Asia to major emerging markets such as China or India,'' Roberts writes.
''As for Asia (Qatar, Australia, Japan, Korea, or even China!), it should get ready for 2026.''
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