AFL/NRL paytv ratings 2011/12 and sundry pedantic ravings


AFL/NRL paytv ratings 2011/12 and sundry pedantic ravings

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Gyfox
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Another issue that needs to be taken into account is that Foxsports has a huge commitment to broadcasting football with total live match football content available of over 500 games per season. This dwarfs the other codes. Matches involving A-League teams account for approximately one third of this content and losing it would make a huge dent in their total football package.
Mister Football
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Gyfox wrote:
Another issue that needs to be taken into account is that Foxsports has a huge commitment to broadcasting football with total live match football content available of over 500 games per season. This dwarfs the other codes. Matches involving A-League teams account for approximately one third of this content and losing it would make a huge dent in their total football package.


Yeh, but the ratings for Fox Footy would dwarf the ratings for those 500 games.
ozboy
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Mister Football wrote:
ozboy wrote:
Mister Football wrote:
if people want to have a go at working out the value of the A-League rights, all you need to know is that the AFL season will pull in 40 million viewers, and for that the AFL will get $120 million per annum (for simplicity I'm ignoring pre-season games and the countless talk shows which all rate very well)

the A-League will pull in about 8.5 million viewers for their season, and that's a very generous estimate

the figure comes to about $25 million per annum, but then you need to discount for the fact that far less content is getting delivered, so that's why I struggle to see the FFA getting more than $20 million

1) AFL doesn't have advertising on Fox during games
2) Football supporters are worth more value per person, than AFL. Melb Victory sponsor research shows it (info comes from SPONSORS) & there was a survey done a couple of years back that, on AVERAGE, Football supporters are more passionate about their sport than what Rugby Union, League or AFL are. That means advertising to fans results in more revenue from said fans.
3) Its also about subscriptions for Fox - so market research needs to analyse how much subscriptions jumped by when all AFL games went on Fox.


If you read the other thread on the expert's opinion on TV rights, you'll note that Fox are making insufficient ad revenue from soccer (unsurprisingly)
Fox Footy runs plenty of ads, it's the highest rating Fox channel, so it's attracting stacks of ad revenue
If you honestly believe that sponsors are lining up to pay more to sponsor an A-League club than an AFL club, you are absolutely dreaming.

I was actually dreaming to think that you have the mental capacity to understand the point of revenue potential per fan...
Gyfox
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Mister Football wrote:
Gyfox wrote:
Another issue that needs to be taken into account is that Foxsports has a huge commitment to broadcasting football with total live match football content available of over 500 games per season. This dwarfs the other codes. Matches involving A-League teams account for approximately one third of this content and losing it would make a huge dent in their total football package.


Yeh, but the ratings for Fox Footy would dwarf the ratings for those 500 games.


You do have difficulty understanding the concept of content and its relationship to subscriptions don't you.

Mister Football
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ozboy wrote:
Mister Football wrote:
ozboy wrote:
Mister Football wrote:
if people want to have a go at working out the value of the A-League rights, all you need to know is that the AFL season will pull in 40 million viewers, and for that the AFL will get $120 million per annum (for simplicity I'm ignoring pre-season games and the countless talk shows which all rate very well)

the A-League will pull in about 8.5 million viewers for their season, and that's a very generous estimate

the figure comes to about $25 million per annum, but then you need to discount for the fact that far less content is getting delivered, so that's why I struggle to see the FFA getting more than $20 million

1) AFL doesn't have advertising on Fox during games
2) Football supporters are worth more value per person, than AFL. Melb Victory sponsor research shows it (info comes from SPONSORS) & there was a survey done a couple of years back that, on AVERAGE, Football supporters are more passionate about their sport than what Rugby Union, League or AFL are. That means advertising to fans results in more revenue from said fans.
3) Its also about subscriptions for Fox - so market research needs to analyse how much subscriptions jumped by when all AFL games went on Fox.


If you read the other thread on the expert's opinion on TV rights, you'll note that Fox are making insufficient ad revenue from soccer (unsurprisingly)
Fox Footy runs plenty of ads, it's the highest rating Fox channel, so it's attracting stacks of ad revenue
If you honestly believe that sponsors are lining up to pay more to sponsor an A-League club than an AFL club, you are absolutely dreaming.

I was actually dreaming to think that you have the mental capacity to understand the point of revenue potential per fan...


even if you are right about that point (and I still doubt it to be honest), you then have the volume question, just for starters, we're talking about 650,000+ AFL members compared to, what, about 80,000 A-League members?

there's no question that you find intensely passionate socceroos supporters willing to travel the world to see their team, and that requires a fair bit of commitment to the cause, but that's quite a small number in all honesty, and I'm unsure how that translates across to the A-League
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Mister Football wrote:

the AFL currently has the most lucrative broadcast deal in Australian history, based on "old" technology, and guess who has invested millions of dollars in creating its own media arm?
it's slowly rolling out an online presence, and will be ready to dabble in the sorts of things you're talking about in five years time
but it's pie in the sky to think the FFA will be ready to extract big dollars from the things you're talking about in the space of 18 months..


The reason for the AFL being slow to move is probably b/c the AFL's research tells them AFL fans are not strong adopters of new digital platforms?

The very dismal ratings for AFL - on FTA TV when screened on ONE HD - is a simple evidence that AFL fans are slow adopters of even the most basic changes to technology.
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Gyfox wrote:
Mister Football wrote:
Gyfox wrote:
Another issue that needs to be taken into account is that Foxsports has a huge commitment to broadcasting football with total live match football content available of over 500 games per season. This dwarfs the other codes. Matches involving A-League teams account for approximately one third of this content and losing it would make a huge dent in their total football package.


Yeh, but the ratings for Fox Footy would dwarf the ratings for those 500 games.


You do have difficulty understanding the concept of content and its relationship to subscriptions don't you.



no I don't, ratings are a reasonable indicator of the nexus between content and subscriptions
obviously a show with low ratings has a very low nexus to subscription revenue and the inverse is also true
Mister Football
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Joe Davola wrote:
Mister Football wrote:

the AFL currently has the most lucrative broadcast deal in Australian history, based on "old" technology, and guess who has invested millions of dollars in creating its own media arm?
it's slowly rolling out an online presence, and will be ready to dabble in the sorts of things you're talking about in five years time
but it's pie in the sky to think the FFA will be ready to extract big dollars from the things you're talking about in the space of 18 months..


The reason for the AFL being slow to move is probably b/c the AFL's research tells them AFL fans are not strong adopters of new digital platforms?

The very dismal ratings for AFL - on FTA TV when screened on ONE HD - is a simple evidence that AFL fans are slow adopters of even the most basic changes to technology.


there's a myth that soccer fans are more into online delivery of services than say AFL fans, but it's a myth

the AFL website is close to the biggest Australian website in terms of hits and the two fantasy leagues dwarf everything else (800,000 participants)

lastly, the HS has become the first tabloid in the world to go behind a pay wall, and it is doing it on the strength of AFL coverage
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Mister Football wrote:
ozboy wrote:
Mister Football wrote:
ozboy wrote:
The $120m/7 years deal was signed off BEFORE the Socceroos smashed all time tv ratings records during the 2006 World Cup


but the FFA doesn't own the TV rights to the World Cup!!

No, but it indicates popularity


yeh, the world cup is extremely popular, but it's irrelevant if you can't make a cent out of it!


But it indicates that they are one of the top supported national teams in the country. So qualifiers and friendlies should be highly sort after.
ozboy
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Roar_Brisbane wrote:
Mister Football wrote:
ozboy wrote:
Mister Football wrote:
ozboy wrote:
The $120m/7 years deal was signed off BEFORE the Socceroos smashed all time tv ratings records during the 2006 World Cup


but the FFA doesn't own the TV rights to the World Cup!!

No, but it indicates popularity


yeh, the world cup is extremely popular, but it's irrelevant if you can't make a cent out of it!


But it indicates that they are one of the top supported national teams in the country. So qualifiers and friendlies should be highly sort after.

The problem is you have to explain it to him...
Mister Football
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Roar_Brisbane wrote:
Mister Football wrote:
ozboy wrote:
Mister Football wrote:
ozboy wrote:
The $120m/7 years deal was signed off BEFORE the Socceroos smashed all time tv ratings records during the 2006 World Cup


but the FFA doesn't own the TV rights to the World Cup!!

No, but it indicates popularity


yeh, the world cup is extremely popular, but it's irrelevant if you can't make a cent out of it!


But it indicates that they are one of the top supported national teams in the country. So qualifiers and friendlies should be highly sort after.


some Socceroos games are highly sought after, only some

put it this way, 9 average socceroos games in total in any given year will get half the ratings of what one round of AFL matches are getting on Fox at the moment, meaning the socceroos games are worth about 1/44th of what the AFL got for its TV rights, or about $2.7 million per annum
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Joe Davola wrote:
Mister Football wrote:
if people want to have a go at working out the value of the A-League rights, all you need to know is that the AFL season will pull in 40 million viewers, and for that the AFL will get $120 million per annum (for simplicity I'm ignoring pre-season games and the countless talk shows which all rate very well)

the A-League will pull in about 8.5 million viewers for their season, and that's a very generous estimate

the figure comes to about $25 million per annum, but then you need to discount for the fact that far less content is getting delivered, so that's why I struggle to see the FFA getting more than $20 million


The problem is that you're relying on business models that are 10 years old.

No "ifs" or "maybes" - the next HAL broadcast rights will include every match being available on "pay-per-view" via IPTv, tablets, mobile phones or PCs.

Foxtel will not be the only "subscription-content" broadcaster of HAL matches.

Pay-per-view matches will be available to every single person on this planet, who has interent access via either one or all of the following:

* FFA will directly broadcast games on a designated HAL web-channel; or
* one or more 3rd parties will broadcast the HAL games online: SBS, ESPN, Al-Jazeera, FoxSports, Fetch, etc. etc.

Currently the average audience for HAL on PayTv is approx 50k, with PayTv market penetration in Australia at 33%.

Internet market penetration in Australia is close to 100% in major markets, so we can assume the Internet broadcast of HAL will attract 3 x the PayTv audience.

Hence:
Viewers per game = 150k
HAL games = 142
Likely cost per game = $2 ($284 per year, which is about 1/4 the cost of annual HD FoxSports package)

Revenue from HAL = 150k x 142 x $2 = $42.6m p.a.

Above calculations do not include revenue from National Team matches.


And how do you come to that conclusion ? What if 90% of the people who are interested in watching the A League live currently subscribe to Fox ? What does that do to your figures ?
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Denis Law wrote:
Internet market penetration in Australia is close to 100% in major markets, so we can assume the Internet broadcast of HAL will attract 3 x the PayTv audience.

And how do you come to that conclusion ? What if 90% of the people who are interested in watching the A League live currently subscribe to Fox ? What does that do to your figures ?


it's called fantasising
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Denis Law wrote:
..And how do you come to that conclusion ? What if 90% of the people who are interested in watching the A League live currently subscribe to Fox ? What does that do to your figures ?


No one knows that for sure, but these are the rational assumptions analysts make when creating forecast models.

In fact, I would put the Foxtel subscription penetration amongst HAL fans even lower than the general population.

Having randomly asked the question of HAL fans over the past 7 years, my limited observation is that 20% of people (2 out of 10 people I ask), who attend HAL games, have Foxtel subscriptions.

This is not a scientific study, and it doesn't seem unreasonable (high or low).
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Mister Football wrote:
Denis Law wrote:
Internet market penetration in Australia is close to 100% in major markets, so we can assume the Internet broadcast of HAL will attract 3 x the PayTv audience.

And how do you come to that conclusion ? What if 90% of the people who are interested in watching the A League live currently subscribe to Fox ? What does that do to your figures ?


it's called fantasising


How many AFL fans would you estimate have Foxtel subscriptions?

100%? 80%? 50%? 30%? Give us your estimate.
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Joe Davola wrote:
Mister Football wrote:
Denis Law wrote:
Internet market penetration in Australia is close to 100% in major markets, so we can assume the Internet broadcast of HAL will attract 3 x the PayTv audience.

And how do you come to that conclusion ? What if 90% of the people who are interested in watching the A League live currently subscribe to Fox ? What does that do to your figures ?


it's called fantasising


How many AFL fans would you estimate have Foxtel subscriptions?

100%? 80%? 50%? 30%? Give us your estimate.


definitely at the lower end
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Mister Football wrote:
Joe Davola wrote:
Mister Football wrote:
Denis Law wrote:
Internet market penetration in Australia is close to 100% in major markets, so we can assume the Internet broadcast of HAL will attract 3 x the PayTv audience.

And how do you come to that conclusion ? What if 90% of the people who are interested in watching the A League live currently subscribe to Fox ? What does that do to your figures ?


it's called fantasising


How many AFL fans would you estimate have Foxtel subscriptions?

100%? 80%? 50%? 30%? Give us your estimate.


definitely at the lower end


And, I contend that the Foxtel-penetration across HAL fans is at the lower end, too.

So, what's you problem?
ozboy
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Mister Football wrote:
Roar_Brisbane wrote:
Mister Football wrote:
ozboy wrote:
Mister Football wrote:
ozboy wrote:
The $120m/7 years deal was signed off BEFORE the Socceroos smashed all time tv ratings records during the 2006 World Cup


but the FFA doesn't own the TV rights to the World Cup!!

No, but it indicates popularity


yeh, the world cup is extremely popular, but it's irrelevant if you can't make a cent out of it!


But it indicates that they are one of the top supported national teams in the country. So qualifiers and friendlies should be highly sort after.


some Socceroos games are highly sought after, only some

put it this way, 9 average socceroos games in total in any given year will get half the ratings of what one round of AFL matches are getting on Fox at the moment, meaning the socceroos games are worth about 1/44th of what the AFL got for its TV rights, or about $2.7 million per annum

:lol: :lol: :lol:
Comparable Socceroos games average ALOT MORE than AFL games on Fox

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Joe Davola wrote:
Mister Football wrote:
Joe Davola wrote:
Mister Football wrote:
Denis Law wrote:
Internet market penetration in Australia is close to 100% in major markets, so we can assume the Internet broadcast of HAL will attract 3 x the PayTv audience.

And how do you come to that conclusion ? What if 90% of the people who are interested in watching the A League live currently subscribe to Fox ? What does that do to your figures ?


it's called fantasising


How many AFL fans would you estimate have Foxtel subscriptions?

100%? 80%? 50%? 30%? Give us your estimate.


definitely at the lower end


And, I contend that the Foxtel-penetration across HAL fans is at the lower end, too.

So, what's you problem?


it's a big jump from that to assuming a whole lot of people are going to spend money on online pay per view
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ozboy wrote:
:lol: :lol: :lol:
Comparable Socceroos games average ALOT MORE than AFL games on Fox


I have 3 Fox ratings for three games last year:
vs Germany 24k
vs New Zealand 77k
vs Serbia 134k

for an average of 78,333
and that's par for course

the last game we had, against Saudi, a WC qualifier, got around 85k

and there are only 9 to 11 socceroo games per annum, this is what I'm saying, 9 Socceroo games will have the combined ratings of half of what the AFL gets in one round (playing 9 games)

people are seriously over stating the value of socceroo games

look at the schedule for the rest of this year: Denmark, Scotland, Oman, Japan, Jordan and Iraq

there will be some interest in Scotland and Japan, but you can forget about the rest
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I am not going to get into the take up rate etc argument that is going on, but I will say that a pay per view option would be extremely marketable to people like myself in the middle income morgage belt who are always looking at the value per money situation.

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Mister Football wrote:
ozboy wrote:
:lol: :lol: :lol:
Comparable Socceroos games average ALOT MORE than AFL games on Fox


I have 3 Fox ratings for three games last year:
vs Germany 24k
vs New Zealand 77k
vs Serbia 134k

for an average of 78,333
and that's par for course

the last game we had, against Saudi, a WC qualifier, got around 85k

and there are only 9 to 11 socceroo games per annum, this is what I'm saying, 9 Socceroo games will have the combined ratings of half of what the AFL gets in one round (playing 9 games)

people are seriously over stating the value of socceroo games

look at the schedule for the rest of this year: Denmark, Scotland, Oman, Japan, Jordan and Iraq

there will be some interest in Scotland and Japan, but you can forget about the rest

3 friendlies and different time zones? What do VFL games rate on Fox? What about those AFL games played in Egypt that we have to get up at 2am for? So we can be COMPARABLE.

Edited by ozboy: 17/4/2012 02:07:17 PM
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ozboy wrote:
Mister Football wrote:
ozboy wrote:
:lol: :lol: :lol:
Comparable Socceroos games average ALOT MORE than AFL games on Fox


I have 3 Fox ratings for three games last year:
vs Germany 24k
vs New Zealand 77k
vs Serbia 134k

for an average of 78,333
and that's par for course

the last game we had, against Saudi, a WC qualifier, got around 85k

and there are only 9 to 11 socceroo games per annum, this is what I'm saying, 9 Socceroo games will have the combined ratings of half of what the AFL gets in one round (playing 9 games)

people are seriously over stating the value of socceroo games

look at the schedule for the rest of this year: Denmark, Scotland, Oman, Japan, Jordan and Iraq

there will be some interest in Scotland and Japan, but you can forget about the rest

3 friendlies? What do VFL games rate on Fox? So we can be COMPARABLE.

That cup thing they ran is probably a better comparison.

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Mister Football wrote:
ozboy wrote:
:lol: :lol: :lol:
Comparable Socceroos games average ALOT MORE than AFL games on Fox


I have 3 Fox ratings for three games last year:
vs Germany 24k
vs New Zealand 77k
vs Serbia 134k



what are the ratings for AFL matches screened at 4 am in the morning?
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ozboy wrote:

3 friendlies and different time zones? What do VFL games rate on Fox? What about those AFL games played in Egypt that we have to get up at 2am for? So we can be COMPARABLE.

Edited by ozboy: 17/4/2012 02:07:17 PM


yes, 3 friendlies, plus I gave you our last WC qualifier, what more do you expect to see?? that's what the FFA have rights to!! they don't have rights to actual WC games or even the Asian Cup games, we're talking about friendlies and qualifiers, what else is there??

yes, some of those games will be in the middle of the night - underscoring what I'm saying that people are overstating the value of having 9 to 11 socceroo games per year (some years it's even less than that
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stefcep wrote:
Mister Football wrote:
ozboy wrote:
:lol: :lol: :lol:
Comparable Socceroos games average ALOT MORE than AFL games on Fox


I have 3 Fox ratings for three games last year:
vs Germany 24k
vs New Zealand 77k
vs Serbia 134k



what are the ratings for AFL matches screened at 4 am in the morning?


as I just said to ozboy, that's the reality, some of the games will be in the middle of the night, yes, very few will watch - that's the point!!
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1. World Cup Qualifier – Australia v Uzbekistan 1/4/2009: 431,000
2. AFC Asian Cup Qualifier: Japan v Australia #3 21/7/2009: 419,000
3. Chappell-Hadlee Trophy – New Zealand v Australia 18/2/2007: 415,000
4. Parramatta Eels v North Queensland Cowboys 02/04/2011: 407,000
5. World Cup Qualifier – Australia v Japan 17/6/2009: 378,000


So Socceroos average 409K & AFL 200K

Edited by ozboy: 17/4/2012 02:14:35 PM
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ozboy wrote:
1. World Cup Qualifier – Australia v Uzbekistan 1/4/2009: 431,000
2. AFC Asian Cup Qualifier: Japan v Australia #3 21/7/2009: 419,000
3. Chappell-Hadlee Trophy – New Zealand v Australia 18/2/2007: 415,000
4. Parramatta Eels v North Queensland Cowboys 02/04/2011: 407,000
5. World Cup Qualifier – Australia v Japan 17/6/2009: 378,000


So Socceroos average 409K & AFL 200K

Edited by ozboy: 17/4/2012 02:14:35 PM


sure, you can find a handful of big rating games, but you have to look at what 9 to 11 games per annum are getting

as an exercise, if you have them available, put up the last 20 socceroo games, let's have a look,

I already said that there will be interest in Scotland and Japan this year, but you can forget about the other games
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Double post

Edited by Joe Davola: 17/4/2012 02:21:24 PM
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Mister Football wrote:
ozboy wrote:
1. World Cup Qualifier – Australia v Uzbekistan 1/4/2009: 431,000
2. AFC Asian Cup Qualifier: Japan v Australia #3 21/7/2009: 419,000
3. Chappell-Hadlee Trophy – New Zealand v Australia 18/2/2007: 415,000
4. Parramatta Eels v North Queensland Cowboys 02/04/2011: 407,000
5. World Cup Qualifier – Australia v Japan 17/6/2009: 378,000


So Socceroos average 409K & AFL 200K


sure, you can find a handful of ... games

You should take your own advice
GO


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