Just happened :plane crash over Syria.

https://twitter.com/HaberturkTV/status/669061103884734464

Edit: confirmed Russian plane shot down by Turkey.

Edited by iridium1010: 24/11/2015 09:06:53 PM

Every ad break 7,9 & 10 are showing footage of the plane being downed, this is not good

Doing the rounds on twitter that one pilot landed in a Syrian Army area, another landed in a Turkmen rebel area has been killed...

Iridium, you've followed this closer than me. What will Turkeys official response from Erdogan mean for Russia and the conflict as a whole. Putin and Erdogan are two strong men who both did the Prime Minister to President trick to stay in power and I don't see this being swept under the rug as a misunderstanding.

Edited by tbitm: 24/11/2015 10:55:50 PM

Turkey ](*,)

Why did the plane crash in the Syrian side of the border if it was in Turkish airspace?

If Syrian Turkmen rebels have the pilots, Turkey's "they were in our airspace" story instantly collapses. So the Turks better produce the pilots....

I can't say what Turkey's response will be, however I'd expect Russia to now come down much harder on Turkish backed groups, particularly in North East Latakia which is Turkmen majority, there's already been Syrian army gains there in the last few weeks, and even reports of Russian ground troops involved in some of the advances.

Turkey can probably also say bye bye to any no fly zone or safe area between the two Kurdish Cantons, and Russian Jets may intercept any Turkish jets entering Syrian airspace.

I'm no lawyer, but I believe the Russians are in Syria legally due to it being requested by the Syrian govt, where's it is argued Turkey and NATO are not.

now reports that both pilots are dead

It was actually reported 3 days ago that Russia bombing these Turkmen areas was considered a Turkish red line.

Edited by iridium1010: 24/11/2015 11:29:12 PM

Warning Graphic.

The apparent video of one the Russian pilots.

https://twitter.com/anasanas84/status/669095300984909824

This is the biggest risk - unintentional escalation. Hopefully the Russians were well aware of Turkey's intentions to act as they did (eg clear red lines stated and reactions to crossing red lines communicated) through their backchannel communications. Russia may have been testing Turkey's commitment to their red lines.

It's hard to know because they obviously have prepared public statements which have little correspondence to their private communications.

If this action was totally unexpected, it throws in a level of unpredictability, which means Russia may then over-react in response.

lol @ rebels "shooting down" a Russian chopper, it was on the ground ffs.

-PB

:oops:

Obviously you can't trust public statements made as all sides engage in propaganda, but this is what is being reported:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/24/nato-and-un-seek-calm-over-turkish-downing-of-russian-jet

In Ankara, the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, summoned his top generals to an emergency national security meeting to decide Turkey’s next step. The Turkish government said the Russian plane had been warned 10 times to turn back as it approached the border, but had still flown into Turkish airspace for a few seconds. Ankara stressed the incident had followed a string of Russian incursions in recent weeks.

“The reason why worse incidents have not taken place in the past regarding Syria is the cool-headedness of Turkey,” Erdoğan said. “Nobody should doubt that we made our best efforts to avoid this latest incident. But everyone should respect the right of Turkey to defend its borders.”

The US president and Nato both backed the Turkish version of events. Barack Obama said Turkey had a right to defend itself, while the Nato secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, said “assessments we have got from several allies are consistent with” the Turkish account.

Stoltenberg said that Nato stood “in solidarity with Turkey” and its territorial integrity, but called for “calm and de-escalation”, urging Ankara and Moscow to maintain contacts. The UN secretary general Ban Ki-moon called on “all relevant parties to take urgent measures with a view to de-escalate the tensions”.

Who do you side with?

I am starting to think that Turkey's version of events is likely more accurate. Just read this article:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/24/russia-proof-jet-syrian-airspace-turkey

The robust Turkish response to airspace violations will have come as no surprise whatsoever, especially after the precursor to this incident on 3 and 4 October, when Russian aircraft received similar warnings but removed themselves before being attacked. So Russia was fully aware of the rules by which Turkey is playing, and they are rules which Russia understands. Turkey’s habit of firm responses creates clear and unequivocal red lines and limits on what kind of behaviour by Russia is acceptable.

It seems like Russia may have been testing the 'red lines' and got found out.

In these situations the key thing is that all parties are acting predictably, which seems to be the case.

It is when countries act outside of expectations that you risk uncertainty and escalation.

[youtube]IschF-ihjS0[/youtube]

Vid of the rebels shooting the Russian chopper.

-PB

Author is from Chatham House and has written for NATO defense college. :)

Warned 10 times over 5 minutes looks like bullshit though, especially when you look at Turkey's evidence. Even the U.S said it was a brief incursion


http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2015/11/25/turkey-warned-russian-jet-10-times--us.html

Apparently it was for 17 seconds..


funny how different the comments from Erdogan are compared to when the Syrians shot down a Turkish Plane in 2012 lol



Edited by jonomv: 25/11/2015 03:31:38 PM

lebanese outlets reporting that one of the pilots survived? hmm

so Turkey is on the side of Islamic State :)

who is on the side of Turkey? :)

Turkey is on their own side, as is Russia and then the rest of Nato.

I guess 17 seconds is not short term lols

Turkey is a member of NATO

Haha! You will note my disclaimer on an earlier post about being sceptical of anything that is published!!!! :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

However, from reading a number of articles, it seems that this has been a well known Russian tactic for a long time - briefly flying into the airspace of NATO countries then flying out, in order to gauge reaction times etc.

Rather than saying that Turkey's version of events is more likely, I should say that their version of events is plausible given Russia's previous actions over a long time.

However, did Turkey warn them 10 times??? Did they actually chase the Russians out of Turkish airspace and shoot them down as they left??? Also plausible.

I guess the key for me is that Turkey's response was within the range of predictable behaviours, and I think (and hope) that Russia won't over-react in response.

Yeah I know. :roll:

I guess another thing is though is that was the response from Turkey justified, these types of things happen all the time, im Willing to bet Turkey has violated Greece's airspace numerous times.

The aircraft was in Turkish airspace for seconds judging by the turkish map, and its pretty clear it didnt pose any threat to the Turkish, and the aircraft was shot down in Syrian airspace.

I wouldnt be surprised if this is the Turkish response to Russia bombing Turkmen areas, and that they've been waiting for a moment like this.

The rebels shouting allahu akbar while shooting at the pilots who are paruchuting down(a war crime) isnt going to help convince the Russians that these rebels are "moderate" either.

Russia has already started shifting Air defence equipment including a missile cruiser, and now russian bombers will be escorted by Russian fighters. This makes it even more dangerous for potential incidents.

Yeah ive read this.

I dont think they're on their own. :)

confirmed
One of the downed ‪#‎Su24‬ pilots was saved by ‪#‎SyrianArmy‬.

so let me get this straight, our nation Australia is on the side of the terrorists and war criminals in this particular conflict? :)