NATE Silver’s powers of prediction are unparalleled.

As the brain behind statistical analysis blog FiveThirtyEight, Silver has been forecasting results in political elections and sporting contests for years. During the last US presidential election, he correctly predicted the winner in all 50 states.

Now, Silver has turned his attention to the World Cup.

He has developed a predictive model called the Soccer Power Index (SPI), which harnesses reams of data to rate every team’s chances on a match-by-match basis.

“Technically speaking, SPI is two ratings systems rolled into one,” Silver says. “One based solely on a national team’s play, and one that reflects a composite of player ratings for what SPI projects to be a team’s top line-up.”

If you want to know how the index works in excruciating detail, you can read more about it here. Otherwise, you can see its predictions for every World Cup group below.


GROUP D: Costa Rica, England, Italy, Uruguay

Uruguay, led by striker Luis Suarez, is the most likely to progress (64.1 per cent). The SPI also expects England to make it through, leaving 2006 world champion Italy languishing in third with a 53.4 per cent chance of getting knocked out.

“England, Italy and Uruguay are the sort of teams that might be able to entertain championship dreams in a World Cup with more parity, but not in one where they would have to overcome Brazil, Argentina, Germany or Spain at some point,” Silver says.

SO, WHO WILL WIN THE WORLD CUP?

“Argentina, Germany and Spain, like Brazil, are wonderful soccer teams. You could perhaps debate which of the four would be favoured if the World Cup were played on a hastily constructed soccer pitch somewhere in the middle of the desert,” Silver writes.

“But this World Cup is being played in Brazil. No country has beaten Brazil on its home turf in almost 12 years.”

That loss, in a friendly against Paraguay back in 2002, barely counts. Brazil didn’t take the game seriously, and substituted most of its star players well before full-time. According to Silver, Brazil’s last home defeat in a match that actually mattered was in 1975.

With home ground advantage factored in, alongside all the other data, Silver’s Soccer Power Index gives Brazil a 45.2 per cent chance of winning the World Cup, ahead of Argentina (12.8 per cent), Germany (10.9 per cent), Spain (7.6 per cent) and Chile (4.2 per cent).

http://www.news.com.au/sport/football/fifa-world-cup-2014-superstar-statistician-nate-silver-has-bad-news-for-australia/story-fnkjl6g2-1226950736040

Edited by Joffa: 11/6/2014 09:59:15 PM

Team Pld W D L GF GA GD Pts

Costa Rica 1 1 0 0 3 1 +2 3
Italy 1 1 0 0 2 1 +1 3
England 1 0 0 1 1 2 −1 0
Uruguay 1 0 0 1 1 3 −2 0

The Uruguay Costa Rica match was played at quite a pace for the condition, Costa Rica are a tropical country.
Italy and England looked like they both struggled to run.
I think Italy will need all their smarts to hold off Costa Rica in the next match which is also in the North, could be another upset.
England are lucky in their next two matches are in the south otherwise they would be finished.

this is the real group of death

Every NT has to play at 110% - sure the humidity tax the british and the azzuri but < their defense was superb vsing the poms can't see costa rica beating them imo.

costa rica will not get another point, but they have done aussie fans like me a favour by ensuring uruguay will not get out of the group. i still dislike some of the antics and the arrogant interviews of the players over those 2 home and away playoffs.

I think Australia's is harder.

Spain, Holland and Chile are are currently better than Italy, England and Uruguay.

anyone take a punt?

I would be very very very worried if i was Italy right now.

Uruguay to do em.

-PB

HOW THE FUCK IS THAT A RED?! HOW IS THE COMMENTATOR AGREEING?

hard to see uruguay scoring even with one man advantage

Worst game so far you think both teams just need a draw to progress not just Italy

both games 0-0

#groupofsleep

Suare is a fucking animal, ban him for the tournament.

Godin 1-0

They're all grubs except for Pirlo and Buffon. Now they're arguing on the side line.

Just need England to win 1:0 and Italy will be bottom on goals scored I think.

Pathetic Uruguayans running with their watches. You waste 40 seconds, the 40 seconds get put on top! Uruguay through and Italy out. Thankfully Colombia will rip Uruguay apart. Costa Rica win the group and will probably face Ivory Coast.

Disgraceful refereeing, Suarez should receive a ban longer than his last one. Prandelli can not make a sub to save his life. Cassano can neck one.

Suarez is such a douche. Why would you bite someone? Will probably now miss the Rnd of 16 clash and for what?

So that's Uruguay out of the tournament then.

Genuinely should be banned for a couple of months, vile human being.

Dunno if there's a tribunal at the World Cup but if he was Australian I think there'd be a lot of public pressure to ensure he didn't play again in the tournament (i.e. Ange not pick him).

Uruguay are amongst the dirtiest teams in world football IMO so I doubt anything will happen.

There is a disciplinary committee at the WC and it will mot likely be done before the knockout stage.

Honestly, I'd be banning him for 6 or so months. Enough is enough.

Leckie would've whacked Suarez had he bitten him.

Prandelli announces he will be resigning as Italy manager.

Suarez should be banned for life.

Institutionalise the fucker.

I'm not joking, he needs serious psychiatric treatment before being allowed to step on to a football pitch again.