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adrtho
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lukerobinho wrote:oil price dropping, Norway about to take a big hit they will over time, but Norway right now is taken over Russia , as the main Gas Supply to Europe..I know the Lithuanian were 100% Russian gas 2 years ago , and now they are zero
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adrtho
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Quote:In January 2014, the community of foreigners from North America and Western Europe numbered 1,137,000. A year later, it had dwindled to 746,580. http://blogs.wsj.com/expat/2015/06/09/expats-leave-moscow-amid-russias-economic-downturn-and-ukraine-crisis/so that a 34% drop for all EU and Nrt Americ in 2014 (year to year)...it not hard to imagine, there been many more who have left since Jan 2015 Russia is a fucking disaster for western investment there..
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adrtho
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paladisious wrote:adrtho wrote:50% of Australian expat who work in Russia have left in last 8 months Source for this? sorry, personal source....but i doubt it's a trade Secret, and something in Australian news would have said about it
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paladisious
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adrtho wrote:50% of Australian expat who work in Russia have left in last 8 months Source for this?
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lukerobinho
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oil price dropping, Norway about to take a big hit
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adrtho
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Draupnir wrote:So have your predictions of Russia defaulting come true yet adrtho? It's only been about 8 months. but it's good that you need to bring up 7 month old topic, to show how dumb I'am :lol: Edited by adrtho: 10/8/2015 03:19:38 AM
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adrtho
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Draupnir wrote:So have your predictions of Russia defaulting come true yet adrtho? It's only been about 8 months. it 5 year...that how long a default bet goes for Russia economy is a fucking disaster...you have zero idea how bad it is, and how bad it will become....50% of Australian expat who work in Russia have left in last 8 months ...it just a fucking disaster for all western business in Russia if you need to show how dumb I'am....you should just concentrate on my spelling ....all the other stuff i will be right to a certain degree Edited by adrtho: 10/8/2015 03:17:28 AM
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Slobodan Drauposevic
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So have your predictions of Russia defaulting come true yet adrtho? It's only been about 8 months.
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adrtho
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Russian ex-deputy PM and opposition leader Nemtsov shot dead in Moscow it has started Quote:MOSCOW (Reuters) - Boris Nemtsov, a Russian opposition politician and former deputy prime minister who was an outspoken critic of President Vladimir Putin, was shot dead meters from the Kremlin in central Moscow late on Friday.
Nemtsov, 55, was shot four times in the back, the Interior Ministry said. A police spokeswoman on the scene said he had been walking on a bridge over the Moskva River with a Ukrainian woman.
Putin condemned the killing and took the investigation under presidential command, saying it could have been a contract killing and a "provocation" on the eve of a big opposition protest that Nemtsov had been due to lead in Moscow on Sunday.
Police cars sealed off the bridge close to the red walls of the Kremlin and Red Square, and an ambulance was on the scene.
"Nemtsov B.E. died at 2340 hours as a result of four shots in the back," an Interior Ministry spokeswoman said by telephone.
A police spokesman on the scene said Nemtsov had been shot at from a passing white car that fled the scene. The woman was being interviewed by police.
Mikhail Kasyanov, a fellow opposition leader, told reporters at the bridge: "That a leader of the opposition could be shot beside the walls of the Kremlin is beyond imagination. There can be only one version: that he was shot for telling the truth."
Kasyanov, a former prime minister under Putin, called Nemtsov a "fighter for the truth".
OPPOSITION TO WAR IN UKRAINE
Nemtsov had been quoted as saying he was concerned that the president might want him dead over his opposition to the conflict in Ukraine. Sunday's opposition march is intended as a protest against the war in east Ukraine, where pro-Russian rebels have seized a swathe of territory.
Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, told Russian news agencies that the president had expressed his condolences and ordered the security agencies to investigate. He said Putin had called it a "brutal murder".
Another opposition figure, Ksenia Sobchak, said Nemtsov had been preparing a report on the presence of Russian troops in Ukraine. The Kremlin strongly denies allegations by Kiev and Western capitals that it has sent troops and advanced weaponry to back the rebels.
Peskov said Putin had called it a "brutal murder".
Like other opposition leaders, Nemtsov was a fighter against corruption. In other reports, he condemned massive overspending on the Sochi Winter Olympics by the Russian authorities and listed the many state buildings, helicopters and planes that Putin has at his disposal.
Nemtsov was also one of the leaders of mass rallies in the winter of 2011-12 that became the biggest protests against Putin since the former KGB spy rose to power in 2000.
Nemtsov briefly served as a deputy prime minister under president Boris Yeltsin in the late 1990s, when he gained a reputation as a leading liberal reformer. Edited by adrtho: 28/2/2015 08:57:17 PM
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adrtho
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U.S. May Block More Russian Banks If Ukraine Cease-Fire Falters No World Cup in Russia when this happens Quote:(Bloomberg) -- The U.S. government is considering whether to shut one or more Russian banks out of the world financial system if rebels backed by Russia continue to violate the cease-fire in Ukraine, two administration officials said.
Putting a Russian bank on the U.S. Treasury’s “specially designated national” list would be a major escalation of the economic pressure the U.S. is exerting on Russia to stop supporting the separatist rebels who’ve seized parts of eastern Ukraine. The action would bar U.S. citizens, residents and companies from dealing with the sanctioned banks and allow the U.S government to freeze any assets in American jurisdiction.
The impact, however, would be global. Foreign banks with significant business in U.S. dollars would be reluctant to risk running afoul of the restrictions, just as they were after the U.S. fined France’s BNP Paribas SA nearly $9 billion last year for violating sanctions against Iran, Cuba and Sudan.
“An SDN listing for any Russian bank that does serious business with the West -- and has correspondent and other banking and financial relationships -- would be a devastating blow,” said Juan Zarate, a former Treasury Department and White House official, who is now chairman of the consulting company Financial Integrity Network.
Both officials who discussed the sanctions deliberations said that blocking additional Russian banks would be a significant escalation and could create large repercussions, particularly in European economies. Such a move isn’t imminent, they cautioned, unless the Russian-backed rebels renew their offensive before a March 19 European Union summit.
The Obama administration blocked OAO Bank Rossiya in March 2014, calling it the “personal bank” of Putin’s inner circle. Quote:U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and European Union President Donald Tusk, a former Polish prime minister, warned this week that new sanctions could be imposed.
The most extreme measure under consideration by President Barack Obama’s administration is shutting banks out of the Western financial system entirely, said two other U.S. officials, who requested anonymity because the policy discussion aren’t public.
“This would add a powerful economic hit longer-term,” said Robert Kahn, a former Treasury official who’s now a senior fellow for international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington. Quote:Acting in concert last July, the U.S. and EU, started imposing restrictions on access to capital markets for several Russian banks. Those sanctions, which were tightened in September, prohibit long-term debt or equity financing by Russian banks, including the country’s biggest lenders, VTB Group, OAO Sberbank and OAO Gazprombank.
European leaders are discussing ways to put more pressure on Russia’s economy and its financial system. U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron said on Feb. 24 that the EU should consider sanctioning entire sectors of the Russian economy if the current truce in Ukraine fails. He also raised the possibility of barring Russian banks from the international financial messaging system used for most international money transfers. That system is run by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, known as SWIFT.
“Looking at the SWIFT banking issues is a big decision, but there is a logic for it,” Cameron said. “If Russia is going to leave the rules-based system of the 21st century, it will have to start thinking about whether it is going to be in the 21st-century system when it comes to investment, banking, clearing houses and the other things that make our world work.”
The U.K. first urged EU leaders to consider blocking Russian access to SWIFT in August, but the idea wasn’t pursued. The U.S. also has considered the idea, though the Obama administration leans more toward fully sanctioning individual banks if a decision is made to escalate the pressure on Russia, one of the American officials said.
Some U.S. lawmakers have been pressuring the administration to intervene more forcefully. At a Bloomberg breakfast in Washington Thursday, U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker said he’d support additional sanctions against Russia if there were any violation of the February truce agreement. He lamented that the U.S. hasn’t done more to provide Ukraine with defensive weaponry to withstand Russia’s advances.
“A long time ago, we should’ve been giving them lethal weaponry that they can handle,” said Corker, a Tennessee Republican. “I think we have not shown much moral fiber as it relates to Ukraine. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-27/u-s-may-block-more-russian-banks-if-ukraine-cease-fire-falters
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adrtho
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long live the US Second Cavalry Regiment US troops just paraded along the Russian border. Is that as insane as it sounds?Quote:On Wednesday, the US Army did something that seemed, and maybe was, dangerously provocative: it paraded soldiers and armored vehicles from the Second Cavalry Regiment in the Estonian town of Narva, just 900 feet from Russia's border.
The Washington Post's Michael Birnbaum, reporting the incident, explains, "Narva is a vulnerable border city separated by a river from Russia. It has often been cited as a potential target for the Kremlin if it wanted to escalate its conflict with the West onto NATO territory."
There is a logic to this sort of demonstration, which is surely meant to show Russia that the US is sincerely committed to the defense of Estonia, which is a member of NATO. In other words, it is meant to deter Russia from starting a Ukraine-style conflict in Estonia, which could plausibly spiral into World War Three. At the same time, such a demonstration is also dangerous, as it risks being misinterpreted by Moscow as an act of aggression and thus making war more likely. a long winded Germany news article, about appeasing Russia across the Russian boarder from Narva, is the Russia city of Pskov, home to a very large Russian Airborne Division :d ..the boarder zone is really beautiful , many lakes http://www.vox.com/2015/2/26/8109445/estonia-russia-armyEdited by adrtho: 28/2/2015 02:30:05 AM
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last Expat in Russia, please turn the lights out :lol: Is The Party Over? Sanctions And Economic Slump Expedite Expat Exodus From RussiaQuote:MOSCOW – Nash Tavkhelidze has been in the expat party business since the 1990s. And in the age of sanctions it looks like the party’s over.
Tavkhelidze is the co-owner of Krisis Zhanra, a legendary nightclub and bar in Moscow normally heaving with Western expatriates. There, over the years, he’s witnessed swarms of foreigners living it up in the Russian capital. But, these days, those throngs are clearing out, he says.
“Last year was a disaster,” said Tavkhelidze, who co-founded Krisis Zhanra in 2005. “Just a couple of guys come now and then, but most of them left.”
Westerners living in the Russian capital say the exodus has been visible in the wake of the Ukraine crisis, sanctions, and a sagging economy. Quote:According to the Federal Migration Service, the number of foreigners residing in Russia – excluding refugees fleeing the war in Ukraine — shrank by 417,000 between January 20, 2014 and January 20, 2015.
That’s a drop of almost 5 percent. And what’s more, a large chunk of the leavers hail from the West.
In particular, the numbers of nationals from some Western countries have plummeted by around a third and sometimes even by almost a half. The figures, reported by the RBK media holding company, do not distinguish between tourists and expatriates. But they are nevertheless striking.
From January 2014 to January 2015, the number of German citizens decreased by nearly a third, from 348,539 to 240,113.
Over the same period, the number of U.S. citizens in Russia fell by 36 percent, down to 79,337; the number of British nationals is down by 38 percent, to 68,627; the number of Finnish citizens has fallen 39 percent to 46,157; and the number of Norwegians has dropped by 48 percent. Quote:Alexis Rodzianko, president and CEO of the American Chamber of Commerce in Russia, put the leavers into three categories.
One is expatriates working for large international companies who are being sent home as part of cost-cutting measures in anticipation of a recession in Russia.
Another category includes foreigners working in sectors hit hard by Western sanctions like energy.
And finally, there is the natural process in Western companies of gradually replacing costly expatriate staff with lower-cost local hires. Expats planning to leave gave a variety of reasons for doing so. Quote:“I just don’t like where this country is going,” said an Australian lawyer, who declined to give his name.
One British lawyer said he and his colleagues are being hit with pay cuts. Another said too many of his top clients were placed on the Western sanctions list.
One French citizen who also declined to give her name said she is paid in rubles by a U.S. construction company. The plummeting Russian currency, she added, amounted to a pay cut she could not afford. Quote:Sechin Sivankutty, a Moscow resident of seven years who manages Hudson Bar, an expat haunt, says business is down by about 40 percent.
“Most of the people have been withdrawing and getting out of this country. It’s noticed at the bar,” Sivankutty said.
And back at Krisis Zhanra, Tavkhelidze reminisced about the good old days.
“I remember Moscow in the 1990s when it was really great times,” he said. “Maybe now we should say that this is the end of an era, which I hate to say, but I don’t know what’s going to happen next.” http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/02/russia-expat-exodus/
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adrtho
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Barclays chops Russia from bond index, crimping its market accessQuote:LONDON, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Barclays will remove Russian foreign currency debt from its global bond indexes, putting it off-limits for many international investors, after Moody's became the second agency to downgrade the country's credit rating to junk.
The move adds to a list of financial headaches for Russia, already hit by currency weakness and a looming recession as it absorbs the double blow of Western sanctions over Ukraine and a halving of world oil prices since last June.
When bonds are excluded from an index, conservative tracker funds are no longer able to buy or hold them, something that can lead to heavy selling and will make it harder for Russia to raise money on international capital markets.
"The downgrade does signal more limited access and higher costs for hard currency borrowings," said Peter Marber, Boston-based head of emerging markets investments at fund manager Loomis Sayles, who added his team were "active traders" in the market for Russian bonds and would not be forced to sell because of the Barclays move.
An estimated $2 trillion worldwide is benchmarked against Barclays' Global Aggregate indexes. Adding in sovereign and corporate debt in roubles and hard currency, Russia has a 0.7 percent weight.
Rival index provider JP Morgan did not respond to a request for comment on whether it planned to exclude Russian bonds. It has previously said Russia could be removed from the investment-grade portion of its GBI-EM index for emerging currency bonds, a portion to which around $5-7 billion in investment fund money is benchmarked.
INDEX RESHUFFLE
Barclays will remove 11 Russian bonds, 10 dollar-denominated and one euro-denominated, when it reshuffles its indexes at the end of February, it said in a note late on Monday.
This hard currency sovereign debt will no longer be eligible for the bank's Investment Grade Global and Euro Aggregate indexes, but local currency rouble-denominated bonds - still rated at investment grade - will continue to be eligible for the Global Aggregate.
Moody's cut Russia to Ba1 from Baa3 on Friday, citing the impact of the Ukraine crisis, weak oil prices and the rouble. Last month Standard & Poor's cut its rating to a non-investment grade BB+.
"The markets have priced in the downgrade since Christmas, with spreads only widening a little on the news. The street chatter is Russian credit is trading more with oil prices than country-specific headlines," Marber said.
Yield spreads on Russian debt over U.S. Treasuries, the premium claimed by investors in comparison to safe haven bonds, have widened by around 75 percent over the last six months and stood at around 553 basis points on Tuesday.
On Russian markets, which had been closed for a holiday on Monday, the rouble and shares fell on Tuesday as local investors got their first chance to act on the Moody's downgrade.
On international markets unaffected by the holiday, the rouble recovered some of its poise on Tuesday while Russian sovereign dollar bonds also staged a partial recovery, having sold off on Monday.
Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on Saturday the Moody's cut would not have a serious additional impact on the capital market as Russia's local currency rating from two other major agencies remained at investment-grade level.
"The exclusion of Russia from certain investment grade indices will inevitably bring some selling pressure, with the key question being exactly how much," said Robert Simpson, Emerging Market Debt portfolio manager at Insight Investment.
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adrtho
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Quote:David Cameron
If Russia is going to leave the rules-based system of 21st century, then they have to start thinking about whether it's going to be in the 21st century system when it comes to investments, when it come to banking, when it come to clearinghouses. Swift ..no swift , no World cup in Russia
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adrtho
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can read it at theguardian Quote:British military personnel are to be deployed to Ukraine for the first time in the next few weeks to provide advice and training to government troops, David Cameron announced before a committee of MPs Quote:The Ministry of Defence said up to 75 personnel would begin to deploy to Ukraine from next month as part of the training mission. Four separate areas will be covered by the deployment: medical, intelligence, logistics and infantry training.
Personnel involved in the training elements could spend one or two months in Ukraine, with a command and control deployment lasting up to six months.
Cameron said there would be “deeply damaging” consequences for all of Europe if the EU failed to stand up to Putin on Ukraine, predicting that the Russian president could turn against the Baltic states or Moldova if he was not reined in now. Quote:The prime minister said the UK was not at the stage of providing “lethal weapons” to Ukraine, but hinted that might change if the US changed its view.
“We have announced a whole series of non-lethal equipment – night-vision goggles, body armour – which we have already said that we will give to Ukraine,” he said. “Over the course of the next month we are going to be deploying British service personnel to provide advice and a range of training, from tactical intelligence to logistics to medical care, which is something else they have asked for. Quote:He said there was no doubt about Russian support for the rebels. “What we are seeing is Russian-backed aggression, often these are Russian troops, they are Russian tanks, they are Russian Grad missiles. You can’t buy these things on eBay, they are coming from Russia, people shouldn’t be in any doubt about that.
“We have got the intelligence, we have got the pictures and the world knows that. Sometimes people don’t want to see that but that is the fact.”
He added: “If there was major further incursion by Russian-backed forces and effectively Russian forces into Ukraine, we should be clear about what that is. That is trying to dismember a democracy, a member of the United Nations, a sovereign state on the continent of Europe, and it’s not acceptable.” http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/feb/24/britain-to-send-military-advisers-to-ukraine-cameron?CMP=share_btn_twEdited by adrtho: 25/2/2015 05:53:40 AM
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adrtho
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scott21 wrote:Quote:442 have been contacted by the legal departments of both The Telegraph and The Mirror in the UK about the unauthorised posting of their content on these forums.
No content from the above websites are to be posted here. If so, the threads/posts will be deleted upon detection by the mods.
Thank you.
Edited by StiflersMom: 13/9/2014 05:30:42 PM
Edited by Joffa: 20/11/2014 09:45:01 PM
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Wanderers - The Complete Story Trilogy yes, that why i've only put the headline and link, and no content
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adrtho
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a very pro-ukraine web site , but in a nutshell, the web site say, that Russia giving rebels over 700 main battle tanks, they know this, by using social media and Russia media, videos https://en.informnapalm.org/tank-manual-for-the-ato-zone-part-2-how-many-tanks-were-captured/to put this into perspective, Australian Army only has 55 main battle tanks , British Army 400 main battle tanks ..now, most of theses tank are old T-64 and T-72, but still, the cost of a old working tank is still $million dollars .The cost of this non war on Russia will bring about a collapse faster
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aussie scott21
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Quote:442 have been contacted by the legal departments of both The Telegraph and The Mirror in the UK about the unauthorised posting of their content on these forums.
No content from the above websites are to be posted here. If so, the threads/posts will be deleted upon detection by the mods.
Thank you.
Edited by StiflersMom: 13/9/2014 05:30:42 PM
Edited by Joffa: 20/11/2014 09:45:01 PM
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adrtho
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bustar wrote:How can Russia be junk & the yanks AAA? same reason why Switzerland can make investor pay to buy Swiss bonds , because they are safe
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bustar
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How can Russia be junk & the yanks AAA?
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adrtho
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Australian Defence talks to address Russian aggressionQuote:THE “growing aggression of Russia” will be a key component of talks today between Defence Minister Kevin Andrews and his British counterpart Michael Fallon.
Speaking during an inspection of the new HMAS Canberra yesterday, Mr Fallon cited Russia’s placement of warships off north-eastern Australia at the time of the G20 summit last year and Russian bombers flying over the English Channel two days ago as cause for concern. “Terrorism in the Middle East and elsewhere will be a major part of the talks tomorrow,” Mr Fallon said.
“But we will also be talking about the growing aggression of Russia. We’ve seen ships down here and flights in the Channel this week.”
The defence ministers spent yesterday afternoon inspecting the HMAS Canberra, the navy’s largest vessel, which was moored in Jervis Bay, 200km south of Sydney. Mr Andrews and Mr Fallon — along with their minders and media — were flown there in a Hercules C-130 military transport aircraft.
Both Australia and Britain are in the process of ordering or constructing new navy vessels, with Britain currently constructing two similar ships to the HMAS Canberra, which began operating in November last year.
“Australia as ever is slightly ahead of us but we have a couple of carriers under construction to catch up,” Mr Fallon told reporters yesterday.
“There is plenty to talk about as we both prepare our defence reviews this year.”
The HMAS Canberra is an amphibious assault ship.
It has a 200m flight deck to allow for helicopters and gunships to take off and land from the vessel.
A key role for the vessels is expected to be humanitarian disaster relief, with the on-board hospital bigger than many regional hospitals.
The vessel weighs 27,831 tonnes unloaded, is 231m long and has a range of almost 10,000 nautical miles.
An emotional Captain Jonathan Sadleir, the captain of the HMAS Canberra, said he and the ship’s crew were “privileged” to have the ministers visit the vessel and the move was greatly appreciated. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/defence/defence-talks-to-address-russian-aggression/story-e6frg8yo-1227204377634Russia running practice nuke bombing run on the UK, will get you to start talking
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adrtho
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Russia anti-west rally they bus in 1000's from the villages Quote:A rally is under way in Moscow to condemn the "coup" in neighbouring Ukraine, a year after the downfall of its pro-Russian president.
Russian state media heavily promoted the rally and march with the slogan "We won't forget! We won't forgive!".
Ukraine's protests ousted pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych in 2014.
Speaking on Russian TV, he condemned "lawlessness" in Ukraine, saying the situation there had caused him "very many sleepless nights".
Since Mr Yanukovych's departure, Russia has annexed Ukraine's Crimea peninsula and is accused of backing rebels in eastern Ukraine.
Quote:Anti-Maidan'
The Moscow event is styled as an "anti-Maidan" march - a reference to Ukraine's pro-EU protests that started on Kiev's central Independence Square, widely known as the Maidan.
Among those at the rally was Ukrainian rebel politician Oleg Tsarev, who marched alongside the leader of Russia's Night Wolves motorcycle club, Alexander "The Surgeon" Zaldostanov, a prominent Russian nationalist.
Groups of demonstrators gathered in central Moscow on Saturday under patriotic Russian banners.
One group of marchers in military fatigues could be seen with a placard which read "Maidan is an illness - we're going to cure it!" Another placard read "Maidan benefits the enemies of Russia!" http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-31561769Edited by adrtho: 22/2/2015 12:36:46 AM
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Russia cut to 'junk' by Moody'sMoody's has cut its rating on Russia to "junk," and says Russia's economy is headed for a "deep" recession in 2015. In a release late Friday, the ratings agency downgraded Russia's sovereign debt rating to Ba1/Not Prime (NP) from Baa3/Prime-3 (P-3). The rating outlook is negative. For Moody's, any bond rated Ba1 or lower is below investment grade, and considered a "junk" bond. Friday's action from Moody's follows a move from S&P to cut Russia's rating to "junk" late last month. In cutting its rating on Russia, Moody's cited the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, as well as the decline in oil prices and significant weakening of the Russia ruble this year as drivers of the downgrade. Moody's also said Russia's economic woes won't just disappear, saying it's "unlikely that the impact of recent events will be transitory." Moody's also cited unpredictable political dynamics, writing that there is a, "very low but rising risk that the international response to the conflict in Ukraine triggers a decision by the Russian authorities that directly or indirectly undermines timely payments on external debt service." Here's the full release from Moody's: New York, February 20, 2015 -- Moody's Investors Service has today downgraded the government of Russia's sovereign debt rating to Ba1/Not Prime (NP) from Baa3/Prime-3 (P-3). The rating outlook is negative. This rating action concludes the review for downgrade that commenced on January 16, 2015. Moody's downgrade of Russia's government bond rating to Ba1 is driven by the following factors: (1) The continuing crisis in Ukraine and the recent oil price and exchange rate shocks will further undermine Russia's economic strength and medium-term growth prospects, despite the fiscal and monetary policy responses; (2) The government's financial strength will diminish materially as a result of fiscal pressures and the continued erosion of Russia's foreign exchange (FX) reserves in light of ongoing capital outflows and restricted access to international capital markets; (3) The risk is rising, although still very low, that the international response to the military conflict in Ukraine triggers a decision by the Russian authorities that directly or indirectly undermines timely payments on external debt service.The assignment of the negative outlook reflects the potential for more severe political or economic shocks to emerge, related either to the military conflict in Ukraine or a renewed decline in oil prices, which would further impair Russia's public and external finances. In a related decision, Moody's has lowered Russia's country ceilings for foreign currency debt to Ba1/NP from Baa3/P-3; its country ceilings for local currency debt and deposits to Baa3 from Baa2; and its country ceiling for foreign currency bank deposits to Ba2/NP from Ba1/NP. A country ceiling generally indicates the highest rating level that any issuer domiciled in that country can attain for instruments of that type and currency denomination. The first driver for the downgrade of Russia's government bond rating to Ba1 relates to the effects of the ongoing crisis in Ukraine, as well as the fall in oil prices and of the ruble exchange rate on the country's economic strength and financial stability. In Moody's view, the existing and potential future international sanctions, the erosion of the country's foreign exchange buffers and persistently lower oil prices plus high and rising inflation will take a negative toll on incomes as well as business and consumer confidence. As a result, Russia is expected to experience a deep recession in 2015 and a continued contraction in 2016. The decline in confidence is likely to constrain domestic demand and exacerbate the Russian economy's already chronic underinvestment. It is unlikely that the impact of recent events will be transitory. The crisis in Ukraine continues. While the fall in the oil price and the exchange rate have reversed somewhat since the start of the year, the impact on inflation, confidence and growth is likely to be sustained. The authorities' policy response is gradually coalescing. However, policymakers confront a multi-faceted dilemma characterized by a falling exchange rate, sizeable capital outflows, declining economic activity and rising inflation. In Moody's view policymakers are unlikely to be able to resolve these policy tensions in order to reverse the economic decline. The monetary authorities face the conflicting objectives of keeping interest rates high enough to restrain the exchange rate and bring down inflation and keeping rates low enough to reinvigorate economic growth and bank solvency. While the interest rate cut in January coincided with a rise in oil prices that cushioned the otherwise negative initial reaction of the exchange rate, a too-rapid reduction in interest rates risks further currency depreciation and higher inflation, which would further compress domestic purchasing power and extend and/or deepen the economic downturn. Meanwhile, the authorities' revamped fiscal strategy will attempt to consolidate the budget to achieve balanced budgets at the lower oil prices and devalued exchange rates that now prevail. Details of this strategy will be made public in coming months. However, Moody's believes that financial conditions in Russia are inherently vulnerable to renewed volatility, which would in turn trigger fresh capital flight and further downward pressure on the exchange rate and the balance of payments. As a consequence, Moody's believes that the government will face substantial difficulty in dealing with the wide range of economic, fiscal and monetary challenges that the country is facing. SECOND DRIVER -- FURTHER EROSION OF FISCAL STRENGTH AND FX RESERVES The second driver for the downgrade of Russia's government bond rating to Ba1 is the expected further erosion of Russia's fiscal strength and foreign exchange buffers. As the rating agency noted in January when initiating its review for downgrade, the government's ability to sustain its fiscal and financial strength was the main factor supporting Russia's investment grade rating. Following the review, Moody's expects further deterioration in the government's financial strength despite the authorities' fiscal policy responses. Taking at face value the government's plans to proceed with its planned fiscal consolidation for 2015, Moody's expects a consolidated government deficit of approximately RUB1.6 trillion (2% of GDP) as well as a widening of the non-oil deficit. The deficit would likely be financed by drawing on the Reserve Fund, which is specifically designed for circumstances when oil prices fall below budgeted levels. Moody's also expects that widespread demands for fiscal easing are likely to emerge if, as the rating agency projects, the recession persists into 2016. In a scenario in which the government would turn to borrowing in the domestic market to finance at least a share of these deficits, higher spending could result in an increase of the debt-to-GDP ratio to 20% or more. In the rating agency's view, therefore, the government's debt metrics are likely to deteriorate over the coming years, albeit from low levels. Low debt and robust external buffers have been the key factors sustaining the rating in investment grade until now, given the country's relatively lower economic and institutional strength and higher exposure to event risk than Baa-rated sovereigns. Moreover, under the stress exerted by a shrinking economy, wider budget deficits and continued capital flight -- in part reflecting the impact of the Ukraine crisis on investor and depositor confidence -- and restricted access to international capital markets, Moody's expects that the central bank's and government's FX assets will likely decrease significantly again this year, cutting the sovereign's reserves by more than half compared to their year-end 2014 level of approximately USD330 billion. In a more adverse but not unimaginable scenario, which assumes smaller current account surpluses and substantially larger capital outflows than in Moody's baseline forecast, FX reserves including both government savings funds would be further depleted. While the government might choose to mobilise some form of capital controls to impede the outflow of capital and reserves, such tools are not without consequences. Capital controls, which might include a rationing of retail deposit withdrawals and/or prohibition upon repatriation of foreign investment capital, would weaken the investment climate further and undermine confidence in the banking system. THIRD DRIVER -- UNPREDICTABLE POLITICAL DYNAMICS The third driver for the downgrade of Russia's government bond rating to Ba1 relates to the very low but rising risk that the international response to the conflict in Ukraine triggers a decision by the Russian authorities that directly or indirectly undermines timely payments on external debt service. Moody's acknowledges the current and prospective efforts by the country's policymakers to contain the economic and financial consequences of the many challenges they face: the Ukraine crisis as well as the collapse in global oil prices and the ruble exchange rate. However, the sovereign faces predicaments that few would have predicted six months to a year ago, and the government's reaction to a possible escalation of these challenges is difficult to foresee. In Moody's view, the risk of policy decisions being taken that pose a threat to the repayment of Russian debt obligations remains very low, but that risk is rising. http://www.businessinsider.com/moodys-cuts-russia-to-junk-2015-2Edited by adrtho: 22/2/2015 12:37:49 AM
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adrtho
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Nato must prepare for Russian Blitzkrieg, warns UK generalQuote:Nato forces must prepare for an overwhelming Blitzkrieg-style assault by Russia on an eastern European member state designed to catch the alliance off guard and snatch territory, the deputy supreme commander of the military alliance has warned.
Openly raising the prospect of a conventional armed conflict with Russia on European soil, the remarks by Sir Adrian Bradshaw, second-in-command of Nato's military forces in Europe, are some of the most strident to date from Nato. They come amid a worsening in relations with the Kremlin just days into a second fragile ceasefire aimed at curbing continued bloodshed in Ukraine's restive east between Kiev's forces and Russian-backed separatists.
Speaking at the Royal United Services Institute think-tank in London on Friday, Sir Adrian warned that as well as adapting to deal with subversion and other "hybrid" military tactics being used by Russia in Ukraine, allied forces needed to be prepared for the prospect of an overt invasion.
Sir Adrian is a former commander of British land forces and the most senior UK officer in the alliance.
He added: "After which the threat of escalation might be used to prevent re-establishment of territorial integrity — this use of so-called escalation dominance was, of course, a classic Soviet technique."
Deploying overwhelming force at short notice has become a hallmark of recent Russian military exercises. Russia's 2013 "Zapad" ("West") war game involved the rapid mobilisation of 25,000 troops in Belarus and the enclave of Kaliningrad for a conflict with a Nato state.
Nato forces must prepare for an overwhelming Blitzkrieg-style assault by Russia on an eastern European member state designed to catch the alliance off guard and snatch territory, the deputy supreme commander of the military alliance has warned.
Openly raising the prospect of a conventional armed conflict with Russia on European soil, the remarks by Sir Adrian Bradshaw, second-in-command of Nato's military forces in Europe, are some of the most strident to date from Nato. They come amid a worsening in relations with the Kremlin just days into a second fragile ceasefire aimed at curbing continued bloodshed in Ukraine's restive east between Kiev's forces and Russian-backed separatists.
Speaking at the Royal United Services Institute think-tank in London on Friday, Sir Adrian warned that as well as adapting to deal with subversion and other "hybrid" military tactics being used by Russia in Ukraine, allied forces needed to be prepared for the prospect of an overt invasion.
Members of the British Duke of Lancaster's Regiment, left, plan their movements against the enemy while a member of the Estonian Scouts Battalion looks on in a forest during the NATO "Spring Storm" military exercises.
Getty Images
Members of the British Duke of Lancaster's Regiment, left, plan their movements against the enemy while a member of the Estonian Scouts Battalion looks on in a forest during the NATO "Spring Storm" military exercises.
"Russia might believe the large-scale conventional forces she has shown she can generate at very short notice — as we saw in the snap exercises that preceded the takeover of Crimea — could in future not only be used for intimidation and coercion, but could be used to seize Nato territory," he said.
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Sir Adrian is a former commander of British land forces and the most senior UK officer in the alliance.
He added: "After which the threat of escalation might be used to prevent re-establishment of territorial integrity — this use of so-called escalation dominance was, of course, a classic Soviet technique."
Deploying overwhelming force at short notice has become a hallmark of recent Russian military exercises. Russia's 2013 "Zapad" ("West") war game involved the rapid mobilisation of 25,000 troops in Belarus and the enclave of Kaliningrad for a conflict with a Nato state.
A snap exercise in Russia's eastern military district later the same year was meanwhile the largest since the fall of the Iron Curtain — it involved 160,000 troops.
Russia could potentially seize territory in a Nato state using its rapidly assembled forces — for example, the Russian-speaking enclave of Narva in Estonia — before the alliance had time to swing into action, forcing leaders to either declare war or swallow their pride.
Such a course of action would raise the prospect of a "slide into strategic conflict", which, "however unlikely we see that as being now, represents an obvious existential threat to our whole being", Sir Adrian added, hinting at the potential for nuclear confrontation.
The prospect of a brazen Russian attack is one of the key drivers behind Nato moves to speed up its ability to deploy sizeable military units in the event of a crisis. The centrepiece of the alliance's shift in policy following a summit in Wales in September is a "spearhead" brigade-sized rapid-reaction force capable of deploying within 48 hours.
Nato is preparing to deploy "force integration units" in each of its eastern European member states. They will act as eyes and ears on the ground as well as preparing the way for the rapid deployment of Nato forces should they be required by building links and logistical plans with local military units and commands. http://www.cnbc.com/id/102442785
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adrtho
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adrtho
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Russia is burning through its dollar stockpile Quote:Russia's foreign-currency reserves slipped another $6.4 billion last week as the central bank and the finance ministry continue the battle to prop up the ruble. At that rate, the country's remaining $368.3 billion will be all but gone by this time next year.
Russia's reserves have fallen by more than $100 billion, from $469.9 billion in June, as the collapse in global oil prices sent the Russian currency tumbling. Quote:To protect the country's businesses from the collapse in the value of the ruble (falls in the currency increase the cost of imports and foreign-currency debt), the central bank and the finance ministry have been selling dollars and euros and buying up rubles to prop up the latter's price. While this helped to stabilise the currency, the falls have already thrown Russia's banking sector into crisis and forced the government to cut its budget by 10% this year.
The big question now, however, is why Russia still has to burn though foreign-currency reserves when the oil price appears to have bounced back from its recent lows. Quote:The Bank of Russia told the Russian news service TASS: "The reduction of international reserves for the week by $6.4 billion, or 1.7%, is a result of repo transactions in foreign currency and reduced balances on the Russian finance ministry and with the Bank of Russia, as well as the negative balance of foreign exchange and market revaluation."
That suggests the currency remains under pressure and, even at over 62 rubles to the dollar, it may still be above what the market feels is fair value. If the oil price is set to remain structurally lower, this is a battle the central bank is unlikely to win and could simply mean it is throwing money away rather than letting the currency find its own level
And that's a problem. If the falls continue at about $6 billion a week, they will be all but exhausted by this time next year. However, at least one key threshold — sufficient reserves to cover at least six months of imports in case of emergency — may have already been breached. Quote:Alexei Kudrin, the former Russian finance minister and current chairman of the Committee of Civil Initiatives, wrote a blog post in the daily newspaper Kommersant last year in which he said available reserves could barely cover six months of imports at current prices:
Six months of Russia's imports are worth approximately half of the current level of international reserves, which are valued at around $454 billion. If we subtract the reserves used to insure the government's budget, the remaining value of reserves only slightly exceed the amount needed to pay for six months of imports.
Some analysts say six months is the critical level to insure the Russian population against the possibility of severe hardship in case the crisis deepens and the Russians are deprived of foreign goods. (Russia imports a large number of staples including butter, cheese, and meat.) Though imports are likely to contract by as much as 30% in 2015 because of the country's recession but with the level of reserves likely to continue to fall for the next few years we could cross even a much reduced total.
The crisis in Russia is not over. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-burning-dollar-stockpile-184600869.html
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aussie scott21
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adrtho
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paulbagzFC wrote:Am I doing it right?  -PB yes, but we coming up to 1980s all over again for Russia in the 1980s, USSR could borrow money from Western Banks, now they can't
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paulbagzFC
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Am I doing it right? -PB
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