I think brexit fears were overblown
there is a moderate risk for a short term recession and some plausible arguments for a slight reduction in gdp over the long term

Of course GDP would decrease, you've got a lower population due to less migration.

But if GDP per capita increases, does it really matter?

i meant gdp per capita due to less favourable trade deals

Or wages and conditions have stagnated because every day you can sack your entire workforce of labourers and go and get yourself a whole new load of Poles or Hungarians or whoever from the local bus stop.

You can call them racists if you want but when I visit Paris or Vienna I want to see French and Austrian people not a mishmash of third world immigrants picked up and dumped into a country lock stock and barrel. Standing around in some parts of Paris or the UK you'd be lucky to work out whether you were in said country or some part of Africa or the middle east.

(Please don't go on a long rant about how immigration has been a continual progression over the millenia.)

If the English are 'racist' because they want England to remain 'English' and have control of their borders then if I were English that's a label I wouldn't mind wearing.

As I said I'm not against multiculturalism in a country like Australia or the US but Switzerland, Austria, Slovenia can stay the way they've been for 100's of years thanks.

You do know that Noway and Switzerland are both not in the EU don't you?

yep definitely racist

If that's the only word you have for feeling that way then fair enough. Racists.

Imagine for a minute that Australia was signed up to a freedom of movement charter such as the EU has in place except with Asian countries instead of European countries.

Don't for one minute tell me you'd be happy with 100's of thousands of Vietnamese, Burmans, Indonesians, Cambodians arriving in Australia en masse with no planning or vetting at all.

I take it under your definition any Australian who objected to this en masse immigration would be a 'racist'?

No wonder England told the rest of Europe to get fucked.

If you thought about it for more than one minute you would.

It's a farce.

The Australian Flag wasn't even our official flag until 1950 something. Australia was seen as primarily a British outpost and our PM Robert Menzies even said "we're British to our bootstraps". What a fucking joke.

and they have freedom of movement clauses in their trade deals.

the UK, is they only country were leaving the EU can be a good thing

UK can go and sign FTA with Australia, New Zealand, go and re-sign it with Canada ,the UK can move back to all the fast growing African countries it use to rule

all the EU people are acting like baby today

the end the day..the UK is still 4% of total world GDP, if the EU countries doesn't want to trade with 4% of total GDP because the UK has left, then it was best for UK to leave



Edited by adrtho: 25/6/2016 02:21:48 PM

Are you saying the Brits have the same amount of control of their borders now as before?

I'm saying they have similar amount of control yesterday as Norway and Switzerland have. Now they have a choice, but the free trade deals those two countries you've mentioned that have with the EU have freedom of movement clauses. The boogeyman that you think is damaging the UK.

They can negotiate what they want and they have control of their borders.

That's not a bad thing.

because there have land border, and are to small to say no

the UK has the biggest diplomat corp of any EU country , the UK is on the UN security council...the UK can make trade deal around the world, where Noway and Switzerland can't

the UK will make a new trade deal with the EU , with out the freedom of movement clauses in their trade deals

I wasn't speaking of freedom of movement clauses anyway. It was in response to the GDP going down due to less favourable trade deals argument. Both of those countries have higher GDP's than Britain so it's hardly a foregone conclusion.




Edited by toughlove: 25/6/2016 02:48:47 PM

That was never the point.

Yes and they can take a less favourable trade deal in exchange and suffer a GDP per capita hit as grazorblade has suggested.

that total GDP

United States 17,947,000
United Kingdom 2,849,345
Canada 1,552,386
Australia 1,223,887
New Zealand 172,248

European Union (with out UK) 13, 371,025

One mans racism is another man protecting his own backyard.

In terms of your economic analysis I prefer simpler phrasing:

When someone works for 3 bowls of rice to do what a first first world worker needs $200 per day, the job will go to the guy working for 3 bowls of rice.

Now the left-wing intelligencia sitting in their ivory towers overseeing all of this will tell us the first world worker will be able to find a job in service industries, higher-value, more intellectual pursuits. You know, like working in finance in London, for example.

Except they don't. They end up jobless.

But wait there's more.

As the first world strength as a manufacturer has declined, much of the growth has been from finance ie people shuffling money about on computer screens and taking a cut from every shuffle they make. In essence, making nothing. Which is great if you're in that minority who does the shuffling.

For now.

The third world is now realising that if they can send their best people to learn from the first world about more value-added industries, they can sew up that market too. IT workers. Design engineers. Accountants. Financiers. All for a fraction of the fees locals charge.

Globalisation and free-trade is fantastic for the third world.

But it leaves most of the first world workers hoping to get a job selling coffee to each other.

Edited by enzo bearzot: 25/6/2016 03:26:07 PM

Anything less than a one world government would make you happy:-({|=

Edited by Socawho: 25/6/2016 03:13:37 PM

Pure conjecture on your part.

Do you know for sure they'll do less favourable trade deals?

All the Greek finances, loans etc, are in Euro. If they exit and revert to their own currency, which will immediately devalue, those loans will increase spectacularly.

There will be huge knock on effects if the Greeks leave. Massive inflation for one.

The Brits, having their own currency, have a much (relative to the Greeks) easier transition.

Rubbish.

For all the bluster, Germany exports far more to the UK than vice versa. Germany needs the UK market far more than the UK needs Germany's market, so if Germany wants to be punitive to the UK then they're also harming themselves.

The UK can now make trade deals with the rest of the world without being impinged by the EU, which is only a good thing from an outside (inc. Australian) perspective.

Th right amount of immigration is a technical issue no doubt and you could argue for more or less in any given situation
but this selected part definitely comes across as racist




As for migrants taking someones job this doesn't happen. The reason is the same reason as having more babies doesn't mean your children are taking peoples jobs. Jobs as a percentage of the population is constant and depends on other factors. This is why economists say immigrants create as many jobs as they take

They can put downward pressure on wages in a particular sector if they disproportionately belong to a particular sector (in this case the low skill sector) and that is definitely an issue
on the positive immigration helps with a demographic problem which every rich country is facing right now where a large retiring baby boomer population is going to be supported by not enough young people. Even if half of migrants ended up on welfare (a ridiculous figure to make a point) they still on net reduce the burden on the welfare state because of the wests large problems with agin demographics.
Finally brittish immigration is actually quite moderate - 40th in the world with a net migration rate of about 0.25% (immigrants-emmigrants) compared to 0.5% for australia or 2% for qatar

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_net_migration_rate

That's fine mate call me racist.

If I visit Switzerland or Norway I want to visit a country that looks like Switzerland or Norway not Morocco, Syria or the Sudan.

We're a multicultural country and that's fine. I'm a product of immigrants myself so it doesn't phase me in Australia. Europe is a different matter though.

Either she has too much influence, something you seem to argue ad nauseum, in which case she should go or....

She has no influence at all, something you also seem to argue ad nauseum, in which case she should go.

Maybe rather than quoting wiki articles at me you can go for the some 'ground truth'

It's difficult to negotiate a better deal than you had, when you are in a weaker position than you were previously in.

As for Norway and Switzerland - should be noted that both negotiated to enter the common market on friendly terms with the EU, both were moving TOWARD to larger party - which the larger party will always welcome. The UK, on the other hand, will be negotiating with a larger party which they are attempting to disconnect from, moving away, on negative terms. There's no reason for the EU to cut the UK a favourable deal as they did with Norway/Switzerland - let alone one that is MORE favourable.