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aussieshorter
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MikeDude wrote:
Are there any other urgent leagues you need done from 2016? Or is this lost pretty much inclusive of all 2016 main leagues to date?
It's up to date for these leagues: - A-League - NYL - VIC NPL - VIC NPL2 (East and West) - NSW NPL - NSW NPL2 - SA NPL - SA NPL State League - QLD NPL - QLD BPL - WA NPL - WA Div1 - NNSW NPL - NNSW NewFM - TAS NPL - ACT NPL - NT NorZone - NT South Zone I don't need any more 2016 results for now, but thanks for the help.
____________________________________________________________________________ TPO Rankings - the FIFA World Rankings for Australian football clubs 
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paulbagzFC
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lol Fury dropping like 50+ rankings since last year. -PB
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WC1day
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aussieshorter wrote:WC20182022 wrote:There is a much bigger gulf than a few points between the teams I have watched in the FFA cup v the HAL teams than is shown in the above table.
Another way of looking at it is according to this table there is only a 10% difference (points) between state league teams and ACL champions WSW or round of 16 ACL team SFC. Nup[-x
Its a conversation starter but the gap in points should be more like 50% minimum CCM v Bentleigh included. Here's another way to explain the way the points compare to each other. You're looking at it like this (simple percentage comparison):  Instead, the formula works like this graph, which is showing the expected percentage of wins a team will have against Adelaide United (#1 rank).  The red line is Bentleigh Greens, the highest ranked non-A-League club at the moment. They are expected to beat Adelaide about 13 times in 100. But it descreases rapidly, with around 120 clubs expected to win less than 1 in 50. Ok Thanks for taking the time to explain it. I appreciate that you have. The expected win % looks more realistic. I also accept that anything can happen in one off games and lower ranked teams can and do sometimes beat higher ranked teams. However, even though I am not a big fan of CCM, after watching FFA cup games (includes the BG's) I think CCM would win against BG four out of five. As you said its a bit of fun. More power to you for doing it. No doubt if you keep at it, refine it, and publish the results for a few years it will become canon and you can make a dollar off all the hits on the website for people reviewing it :d
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TheSelectFew
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Froth a good stats thread kutgw to all involved.
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Ultimate
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aussieshorter wrote:miron mercedes wrote:Table sure looks impressive...however I tried to look at the ELO site to see how things are calculated ...they lost me here ....E = 1 / (10(-dr/400) + 1), had horrible nightmares of high school algebra and gave up .
oh and here is another easy to understand equation from the site :
The following equation satisfies this constraint:
"ΔElo_1X2 = (R - E) * k,
where R is the result (1 for win, 0.5 for draw, 0 for loss).
here is one degree of freedom in this equation which in the weight index k that has to be chosen. A higher k will have the ratings converge quicker to their true values but will suffer from more variation. A smaller k provides more stable values that take longer to converge.
ClubElo uses a weight index of k = 20."
Not sure if you guys are pretending you understand how it works or are all maths geniuses...either way you lost me at "hello" .:?
Certainly no math genius, but I've spent time understanding the formula. The k that I've used is 20 for normal league games, and 30 for FFA Cup, Finals, and NPL Championship games. I've made it higher for the FFA Cup in an effort to update the table quicker for games between different clubs from different states. We've also made adjusments (similar to the club ELO site) for home advantage, and for the goal difference (bigger impact on points for bigger wins). Have you been playing around with entering friendlies? IMO any games in between different leagues is going to get us to the expected value faster, even if we deal with a reduced k value. Kudos on getting the setup right!
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Oblivious Troll
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I don't think you can underestimate the importance of stats like this to the game in Australia. As they used to say when I worr a little lad "if you can't measure it, you can't manage it". This tables gives a clear, concise metric of where the lower league teams are in the football firmament and whether they are improving or not over the long run. Well done.
Its a game for everyone. Its not pale, male, or stale. It transcends race, gender, economic status. Its for everyone. - Tal Karp
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aussieshorter
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Ultimate wrote:Have you been playing around with entering friendlies? IMO any games in between different leagues is going to get us to the expected value faster, even if we deal with a reduced k value.
Kudos on getting the setup right! Not at this stage. I'd prefer to keep it to official games only at this point. I could look at including official pre-season competitions which sometimes have inter-league games (e.g. Brisbane's Silver Boot competition) or some of the ethnic cups which have teams from different states.
____________________________________________________________________________ TPO Rankings - the FIFA World Rankings for Australian football clubs
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The Dudist
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aussieshorter wrote:Ultimate wrote:Have you been playing around with entering friendlies? IMO any games in between different leagues is going to get us to the expected value faster, even if we deal with a reduced k value.
Kudos on getting the setup right! Not at this stage. I'd prefer to keep it to official games only at this point. I could look at including official pre-season competitions which sometimes have inter-league games (e.g. Brisbane's Silver Boot competition) or some of the ethnic cups which have teams from different states. Well different comps have different weights, I suppose. So it might make sense, but it probably wouldn't affect the results as much as the bigger comps. How far back in history are you thinking of going?
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aussieshorter
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I'll try to update on Monday each week (no promises it'll always be on time!). Out of interest, I've highlighted in orange the clubs who have qualified for the FFA Cup Round of 32. South Australia is yet to be confirmed (MetroStars vs Adelaide Comets) and Surfers Paradise Apollo is not on the list as I don't cover the Gold Coast Premier League (yet!). Let me know if there's anything else you'd be interested in seeing (stats-wise).  
____________________________________________________________________________ TPO Rankings - the FIFA World Rankings for Australian football clubs
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The Dudist
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Love it! =d>
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adrtho
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aussieshorter
no need to update it every week...update 4 times a year
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The Dudist
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adrtho wrote:aussieshorter
no need to update it every week...update 4 times a year
But the rankings will change weekly. Quarterly would be almost pointless.
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adrtho
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MikeDude wrote:adrtho wrote:aussieshorter
no need to update it every week...update 4 times a year
But the rankings will change weekly. Quarterly would be almost pointless. yes, but not enough to worry about
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The Dudist
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adrtho wrote:MikeDude wrote:adrtho wrote:aussieshorter
no need to update it every week...update 4 times a year
But the rankings will change weekly. Quarterly would be almost pointless. yes, but not enough to worry about This is all just a bit of fun though, so I'm keen to check the table each week (no pressure on aussieshorter though!) Besides, there's a match played every week, so the rankings will change a lot, unlike the FIFA rankings which change slowly.
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aussieshorter
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Updated to 26th June 2016:  
____________________________________________________________________________ TPO Rankings - the FIFA World Rankings for Australian football clubs
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SutherlandFan
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Love your work!
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Aikhme
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What are the world rankings. I tried to look but my mouse finger cramped from all the scrolling ffs! :?
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paladisious
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Looking forward to minnows Central Coast Mariners facing up to the might of Green Gully in the FFA Cup, what a dream fixture! :D
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aussieshorter
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Updated to 3rd July 2016  
____________________________________________________________________________ TPO Rankings - the FIFA World Rankings for Australian football clubs
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aussieshorter
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Updated to 10th July:  
____________________________________________________________________________ TPO Rankings - the FIFA World Rankings for Australian football clubs
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thewitness
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aussieshorter wrote:Updated to 10th July: How much impact will Brisbane Strikers winning over Shamrock away in the cup have on Darwin Olympic's position.
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aussieshorter
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thewitness wrote:aussieshorter wrote:Updated to 10th July: How much impact will Brisbane Strikers winning over Shamrock away in the cup have on Darwin Olympic's position. Not a huge amount. Because Shamrock are so far below Strikers on the rankings, they are already expected to lose. So if they do, the points exchange won't be very high. On the other hand, if they can pull off a result (even a draw in extra time) they will gain more points because it's unexpected.
____________________________________________________________________________ TPO Rankings - the FIFA World Rankings for Australian football clubs
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THE STAPLER
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carn the Holland Park Hawks! back up and flying high at 134
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TheSelectFew
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Peaty
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Wow! Very nice work!
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aussieshorter
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Updated 17th July.  
____________________________________________________________________________ TPO Rankings - the FIFA World Rankings for Australian football clubs
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The Dudist
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Bentleigh > Mariners
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aussieshorter
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Updated 24th July. Biggest upsets of the week: - Kingborough Lions (161) 5 - 2 Olympia Warriors (73) - TAS NPL - Box Hill United (99) 0 - 3 Springvale White Eagles (152) - VIC NPL1 - Lambton Jaffas (54) 1 - 4 Maitland FC (70) - NNSW NPL - Singleton (180) 2 - 0 Kahibah (146) - NNSW NewFM  
____________________________________________________________________________ TPO Rankings - the FIFA World Rankings for Australian football clubs
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Burztur
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MikeDude wrote:Bentleigh > Mariners
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paladisious
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I just love this. Looking forward to seeing the effect of the FFA Cup.
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