Huge chunk of those gamers are 25 - 35 so not so young generation - and that segment are more likely to vote.

Interestingly, fivethirtyeight.com has reduced the likelihood of a Clinton victory from about 75% to about 65% now:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

In their most recent podcast they talked about the fact that there has been so much happening - police shootings, Nice, Turkey, and that it is not necessarily clear who that advantages.

EG if it shakes out that people want a "strongman" response it may help Trump. If people think they need a "steady hand" response, Clinton may be advantaged.

Also, Trump has his VP selected, but Hillary doesn't yet, and the party conventions are on this week and next.

Essentially, the advice is to wait 2-3 weeks and re-look at the polls. If we end up with numbers reverting to average, then Clinton will probably have it. If the polls tighten significantly, then it will be more likely to open up.

One thing I can guarantee, is that anyone making sweeping generalisations at this point in time doesn't know what they are talking about.

Kinda like how Harry Enten of 538 proclaimed that Trump had more chance of playing in the NBA finals than securing the GOP Nomination.

I think it's pretty funny that Clintons polling only dropped after Sanders' kind-of-kind-of-not endorsement.

I think it's pretty clear to most people that Clinton is done, although there's a fun conspiracy theory going around that Hillary is going to get Bill to fall on his sword and kill himself (making it look like natural causes) for pity polling points in the leadup to the election.

No one credible predicted Trump would get the nomination. Their polling on the contests were still pretty spot on. What they got wrong was that there would be a coalescence of support around an establishment candidate. Everyone thought that.

Im 36 and dont know what pokerwand is.

:lol: So a whole chunk of Melania Trump's speech at the RNC today was copied almost word for word from a Michelle Obama speech.

Speechwriter musta made easy money :lol:

-PB

:lol: According to her she wrote the speech herself with as little help as possible, you know apart from the current first lady.

Maybe the best part to come out of all of this is the fact that Trump made the GOP enjoy a Michelle Obama speech :lol:

EDIT: Scratch that, best part is that there's a fucking rickroll in the speech :lol:

Edited by sydneycroatia58: 19/7/2016 03:07:03 PM

Stephen Colbert did well too rofl.

-PB

I predicted back in nov or dec Trump was favourite when everyone was still saying it would fade away. I also predicted Bernie though that was a long shot and he surely did a lot better than everyone thought. I didn't think he would lose the black vote so heavily though.

I think the debates will be a turning point. There will be a moment where Trump hammers her too hard on her record as Secretary of State or on the email scandal and she'll either have nothing to say or say something stupid and weak. That moment will then be played over and over on tv and Americans won't choose a weak leader.

I have $400 on trump to win so maybe a part of me is just hoping :lol:

Or.... with Trump being unscripted, he could easily say something which puts people off, or at least makes them think he will be too erratic to be given the nuclear switch.

Could go either way in the debates.

I feel like he would have already done that by now and he's been close for sure, but thats a possibility sure.

Trump has an amazing ability at slicing someone right in their jugular. I think he'll treat her like he treated Jeb Bush at the debates.

=d> =d> =d> =d> =d> =d> =d> =d>
[youtube]9KtzdP7mR-4[/youtube]

The thing is - what works in a republican primary debate may not work in a general election presidential debate.

He will definitely go for the jugular, but he also may go on a tangent and say something unscripted etc.

Antonio saboto jr :lol: doing the old obama is muslim shtick. And claiming the us of a had been run by a muslim:lol: how can a latino say that with a straight face is beyond me.

A Muslim that's married to a bloke :shock:

One things for certain, this is going to be an entertaining and important race.

Edited by tbitm: 19/7/2016 06:19:37 PM

Trump has been saying nut job crazy shit for the last year, do they think Trump supports care Trump wife just copy & paste state of the Union address

when people ask , how the people of Germany let Adolf Hitler...watch Trump, that how

how does Trump win? Trump has said fuck off to everyone but white men

there just not enough White male votes for Trump to win


this is going to be the biggest margin win for Clinton ..7% to 10%

He also has a white republican women vote, and depending on the timing of the next terror attack he will probably get a fair chunk of scared neutrals.

I dont want him to win, but I also am not underestimating his reach.

Trump also contradicts himself everywhere. You say he has told everyone else to fuck off except white men, but he has also embraced everyone else at some point.
All depends which speech you watched before you vote.

Trump is an American Berlusconi.

When people think their voice doesn't matter, or that the system is rigged, they vote to reject the system altogether.

So this choice is set.

Americans get to not bother voting for anyone except Donald




or not bother voting for anyone but Hillary

And according to the RNC Melania should also be thought in the same breath as Twilight Sparkle from My Little Pony.

Edited by sydneycroatia58: 20/7/2016 11:24:11 AM

Whilst this is wishful thinking, I don't think that this issue will have any meaning one way or the other.

Drumpf's wife has not been a prominent figure in the campaign, she is not part of the political scene, so I think this will be discarded pretty quickly.

If she was a much more politically active spouse (eg Hillary back when Bill was Prez) it may have mattered more.

There'll be a few who would rather see her on the Telly than Hillary

Who was the Redford look-a-like they used as a running mate a while back

:lol:

With non-compulsory voting in USA you can see a lot of that old white male demographic going to Trump, Hillary will have to rally the young masses ala #feelingthebernz to help her out after all this private server crap has hampered her.

Hillary has something like the worst negative rating going into an election in history, bar Trump lol.

Literally is picking the worst of the bunch (bar the other candidates).

-PB

Irony is this will be her best chance of ever winning the Presidency. If someone with an ounce more integrity was running against her she would be toast.