this is over....Clinton has won, the people are not changing there mind over next 4 days.....if you have a betfair account, you should bet Clinton at odds of  1.43 to win, true odds should be about 1.10

Trump polls have come in (better) but this is normal , Clinton  was never really a 8%-10% , people are not happy, they want to send a message , but sending a message is not the same as given this dirty old rich white grandpa (not in a fun way)  the white house 

lel this Huma Abedin vid with all the connections.

-PB

This.

will it be daily entertainment, When Trump tell Australia  to pay money to keep sea lanes open?    everyone in Canberra is shitting them self about Trump

How would you know?

Just threw $50 on a Clinton win at $1.42.

Will find out Wednesday I suppose who was right and who was just wishful thinking.

Knowing my shit betting history I'd be jumping all over Trump now I've placed a bet.

Don't win much with them odds, $21. 

If I put my house deposit of 50k on it I would get a 21k return.............. Very tempting. 

I know right.

If the polls are to be believed then it's a lay down misere for Clinton AND if you were playing with $10's of thousands it seems a no brainer.

Bung $500k on for a return of $210k.  Imagine that.

Blows your mind really.

Indeed, will definitely chuck some cash on Hilary, not 50k but maybe a couple hundred.  :)

Yeah not much.  Brand spankers at this.  Just trying to build a little $100 stake so that I'm then playing with their money not mine.

good call!

this decider multi just can't be trusted to hold his end of the bargain. 

I'm calling it in already and declare that Clinton looks to have it in the bag. 

trump is already behind some of the key states he needs to be POTUS! 

I will be sleeping easy. 

I wouldn't be sleeping too easy if I were you, if he holds Florida and North Carolina which is looking more and more likely, then the only states he needs to win are Nevada and New Hampshire, which are both looking more and more likely as the days go by. 

As Nate Silver put it today, Clinton's firewall is gone, it's a rusted chain link fence. His analysis suggests that she is trading voters in places like Ohio, Florida and Nevada for voters in places like Texas, Maryland and California, places where she either already has it in the bag or is so far out of the money she's got no chance.

People really shouldn't be writing trump off, he's up 20% on 538 for the week I think, it will be too close to call by November 8.

Nate Silver's analysis of Nevada seems to be a bit away from a lot of peoples views, that the early voting is putting it quite firmly in Clinton's hands.
However Clinton seems to vulnerable is a number of states, so it is not over but she still is the favourite. 

because polls show it , polls don't just ask who will you vote for, polls ask a whole lot of other question to,,,early voting show it to, more the 30 million America have voted

no bet is worth betting your house deposit ,,,,but maybe bet 20% of your house deposit :laugh:


you should never bet 100% of money on a single bet, crazy shit you can never dream of can  happen....Clinton could die from now to Tuesday, she is 70 years old

but the head political news reporter in Las Vegas is saying , after early voting (which is about 70% of total votes)  that Clinton look like to have won by about 5% in Nevada (only one day of early voting left)  that base on private numbers (polls) he seen, that something really crazy has had to happen for Trump to have won.....also, he talk about other facts like, How Trump really has very little organization in Las Vegas  and Clinton has massive , he says most organization in Las Vegas is left to state republican and they are shit

Nevada no longer about predicting who will vote and how they vote,  they now know who has voted, they know if they are Dem or Rep, they know what county (council) they know if  male or Female, Black or White...

when you give Nevada to Clinton, Trump chances to win drops to about 5% 


http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog

As Nate Silver put it today, Clinton's firewall is gone, it's a rusted chain link fence

Pennsylvania   76.7%
Michigan  79.2%
Wisconsin  80.50%

New Hampshire and Colorado are not class as firewall state

Arizona  69.7%  (Clinton 30.3%)
Georgia  82.1%  (Clinton 17.9%)

so, Arizona  is more in-play then the lowest firewall states ...are you worried about Trump losing Rep firewall?

Colorado 23.5%
New Hampshire 35%
Florida 49.1%
North Carolina 51%
Ohio 65.8%
Iowa 70.7%
Maine 2D  51.8% 

Trump has to win them all to tie, ..Nevada, Trump lost it, it over, in Nevada,.....

The media wants this to be close, it good TV, it always the same, with TV ...but  53% on 130 million votes is not close 


New York times has  Early Vote in North Carolina Daily Tracker....they have done a very good job, North Carolina is looking very much like Nevada,

2,585,000 have voted with a  estimates of 1,989,000 left to vote

Already, about 2,585,000 people have voted in North Carolina, out of about 4,574,000 we think will eventually vote. Based on the voting history and demographic characteristics of those people, we think Hillary Clinton leads in North Carolina by about 6 percentage points. We think she has an even larger lead – 9 percentage points – among people who have already voted.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  47m47 minutes ago
Jon Ralston Retweeted (((Harry Enten)))I have seen data on indies in NV. Less white than ever before. Dems did not ignore them during reg drive.


this is another thing, most people are not thinking about, in ,many states, the GOP Senates are not really work with Trump 

betfair odds now 1.33 Hillary Clinton....very big move in a day where there no news (emails or sex bus)   and news channels talking about  how close it is now

on sex tape bus,  betfair odds was 1.43 move down to (around) 1.27
on new FBI emails, betfair odds was 1.23 move up (around) 1.35

so this is a very big odds move

A couple of comments about polls - 

1. I think part of the reason for the circus in the media is because many people don't believe Trump is a viable or competitive candidate based on the things he's said. But clearly if you look at the polling, he is just as competitive as Mitt Romney was in some places(if not more so). 

2. Late deciders might be going for Trump, but that doesn't mean Hillary's vote is going down. It just means that people who weren't committed to one candidate are making up their mind. In places where Hillary is still already ahead at 49-50pc of the vote in polling, that's okay. If you actually look at the graphs from swing states, some of them have Hillary holding on to exactly where she was, but Trump numbers are going up. So the media goes into a tizz about how "Hillary is losing ground", or how "Hillary's lead is getting cut in half" but in absolute terms that's actually not happening. 

3. If Hillary is currently polling at 49-50pc in a state, it won't matter how many late-deciding voters are jumping on the Trump bandwagon because she's already winning. So in places like Virginia and Pennsylvania, that's not going to be an issue. 

4. It's hard to tell whether there'll be any "brexit effect", like whether there are any turnout errors in the data. But at least with Brexit the polls were actually close, and in the last two weeks many pollsters actually did have Brexit winning. Some pundits just refused to admit what was happening.

The data error with Brexit was that the pollsters misjudged who was likely to turn out to vote. A bunch of people who had never voted in general elections for 20 years rocked up to vote for Brexit. If we were going to see errors in turnout data we should start to see this reflected in early voting. However that isn't happening - in most states the democrats are way ahead in early voting. 

A few unanswered questions I have:

- How many republican voters "parked" their vote with a third party in polling, and will they actually vote that way on election day? States like North Carolina have had Hillary winning with about 46-47% of the vote with Trump down on 42 or so. But if those Republican voters "come home", Trump could overtake her. 

- Will democratic turnout on election day after all the crap that's happened in the last week? Given early turnout numbers are still okay, perhaps she'll be all right. 

- Is Hillary going to have a problem in states where she's been winning with 45-47% of the primary vote, and will trump be able to overtake here with a late surge? 

Nevada and North Carolina Clinton wins!

bye bye Trumpy! bye bye!

It's been entertaining I got to say!

Oh well! Look on the bright side. You can always do another run of Apprentice! 

hillary got some decent polls this morning
ipsos +7
Rasmssen +0
Fox+2

One thing that is strange is there haven't been as many liberal polls (i.e. polls with a huge house bias toward dems) since the access hollywood tape

There are a few liberal pollsters with recent polls. Public religion institute had a huge liberal bias but their last poll was 3 weeks ago. Same with monmouth and Bloomberg

Best reality show in TV 2016 😀

Until she gets impeached.

Best of all possible worlds.Trump loses. Clinton impeached. Expectation that next election will be more sensible. Jon Huntsman v Elizabeth Warren.

Good to see you on the fozza.

My prediction:

Carly Fiorina - 2020.

she not getting impeached., some FBI agents might be going to jail for leaking FBI shit