Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  7h7 hours ago
Dems win Clark by 11,000-plus, will be ahead overall there by 72K-plus, more than 2012. May be game over in NV for GOP.


the Dem had same lead over Rep in Clark (Las Vegas) and Washoe (Reno) as in 2012 

Trey Gowdy for mine.

-PB

UPDATED, 11/5/16, 7 AM

Donald Trump will be in Reno on Saturday, but the Republicans almost certainly lost Nevada on Friday.

Trump's path was nearly impossible, as I have been telling you, before what happened in Clark County on Friday. But now he needs a Miracle in Vegas on Election Day -- and a Buffalo Bills Super Bowl championship is more likely -- to turn this around. The ripple effect down the ticket probably will cost the Republicans Harry Reid's Senate seat, two GOP House seats and control of the Legislature.

How devastating was it, epitomized by thousands of mostly Latino voters keeping Cardenas market open open in Vegas until 10 PM? This cataclysmic:

----The Democrats won Clark County by more than 11,000 votes Friday (final mail count not posted yet), a record margin on a record-setting turnout day of 57,000 voters. The Dems now have a firewall -- approaching 73,000 ballots -- greater than 2012 when Barack Obama won the state by nearly 7 points. The 71,000 of 2012 was slightly higher in percentage terms, but raw votes matter. The lead is 14 percentage points -- right at registration. You know what else matters? Registration advantages (142,000 in Clark). Reminder: When the Clark votes were counted from early/mail voting in 2012, Obama had a 69,000 vote lead in Clark County. Game over.

----The statewide lead (some rurals not posted) will be above 45,000 -- slightly under the 48,000 of 2012, but still robust. That's 6 percentage points, or right about at registration. The GOP turnout advantage was under a percent, worse than 2012 when it was 1.1 percent.

----The Dems eked out a 200-vote win in Washoe and lead there by 1,000 votes. It was even in 2012. The rural lead, before the stragglers come in, is 27,500. It probably will get above 28,000.

----Total turnout without those rurals: 768,000, or 52.5 percent. If overall turnout ends up being 80 percent, that means two thirds of the vote is in -- close to 2012. Republicans would have to not only win Election Day by close to double digits to turn around the lead Hillary Clinton almost surely has in early voting, but they would have to astronomically boost turnout. The goal for the Dems during early voting was to bank votes and to boost turnout as high as possible to minimize the number of votes left on Election Day to affect races. Folks, the Reid Machine went out with a bang.

As an exclamation point to a historic night in Nevada, in which Clinton essentially locked up the state and Hispanics, insulted all cycle by Trump, streamed into the market, here is what the final Cardenas numbers showed (tallied by an on-the-ground activist):

1,904 voted
1,258: Ds, 66%
165: Rs, 9%
481: NPs, 25%

So Cardenas was responsible for adding 1,000 to the Democratic lead.

Trump has almost no path to the presidency without Nevada. He can say whatever he wants in Reno on Saturday and boost rural turnout a lot, but he made his own bed when he announced his candidacy.

I'll dive deeper into the numbers later to show just how deep the wave could be Tuesday.

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog

Obama tries to get a crowd to calm down after a Trump protester pops up and defend his right to free speech.

Trump claims that he was screaming at the protester and became unhinged.

Clinton is ahead in Florida as well.

it's all over if she wins this state. All over! 

funniest thing I have ever heard.

When she is President, she won't be impeached. 

Frida Ghitis ‏@FridaGhitis  4h4 hours ago
Político writer tells MSNBC that Trump has stopped polling - because he refuses to pay his pollster. May explain campaigning in odd places.


:D

I cant wait to hear Mr Trumps speech on election night.

reporting a guy with a gun at Trump rally 

still not sure what happen....

CNN ; no weapon has been found related to the incident in Reno and Donald Trump"

A Homeland Security official confirms the @ABC report: no gun found, crowd panicked as a guy tried to raise a sign; someone shouted "gun."

look like the guy had a HRC poster

Wow assassination attempt.

Tim Kaine motocade bus hit by car

Sign of a great president right there.

If this election has taught us anything, is it that maybe we are better off starting to ease away from the US?  Maybe that hot rich Chinese dude isn't so bad afterall

The country feels like it's taking the piss with this election from the outside looking in

3rd assassination attempt on Trump.

The best presidents are always the ones that get assassinated/attempts.

Lincoln
Kennedy
Reagan
FDR

:D      

it look like the guy was only holding a HRC poster, and Trump supports shouted gun 

You guys have underestimated the resentment of the American People. Against the Ruling Elite.

Remember. The US Constitution allows the Right to Bear Arms. The People will rebel if they smell a rat.

Trump to win.

I'd love for us to start having some independent thought on foreign policy. Blindly following the Americans has got us involved in Vietnam, The middle east (twice) and now we're getting involved against our greatest trading partner in the south China sea. If Australian politicians had any credibility more people would be discussing loosening foreign policy ties with the Americans and strengthening relations with our local trading partners. How many more wars will we be dragged into by the Americans if Hillary or Trump is president. We already know Hillary is itching for a war with Russia and China, yes Trump is pushing for a trade war with China, but he hasn't said anything about wanting boots on the ground in these places, nor is he talking about No Fly Zones in regions the Americans can't control without a war. 

The whole thing is a farce, special interest groups and the military industrial complex has completely eaten up any semblance of a balanced reasonable democracy within the states. The establishment and political elite around the world do not have the best interest of their nations or peace as their primary objectives.

I thought we've mostly stayed out of the south china sea shit. I agree we should have a more independent foreign policy, although I have no problems with us lending the U.S. aid in afghanistan. We have built up relations as of late with Japan.

If Hillary is going to get more aggressive with Assad and Russia in regards to Syria then we should stay the heck away from that. Although I support the bombing of IS and protecting vunerable minority areas in Iraq and Syria, like when we helped the Yezidis stuck on mount Sinjar.

Australia could take a more of a  stance on West Papua too.

In what sense is Clinton itching for war with Russia and China? If you are inclined to the view that acquiescing in the leveling of Syria is fine as a matter of policy, then please do say so. 400,000 are dead, 10 million or so displaced; the vast majority due to the actions of the Assad clique. Does this not disturb you?

Lincoln - too weak on the question of slavery. Tool of special interests.
Kennedy - serial plagiarist, drug peddler, toady of special interests
Reagan - dumb as a stump, inexcusable; had dementia whilst in office, war criminal
FDR - racist, miscalculation re. Stalin and Eastern Europe directly responsible for post-war misery, poor standing as President 

lololololol

you underestimated how stupid most people are who resent the ruling elite

sure, lets pay 5% of GDP on defense, and 4 times the Australia Navy size ...

there not one country on this earth , that is as Undefendable as Australia is,, and it's been simply luck, that for 200 years Australia 1st saw the British and the USA control the worlds seas lanes...Australia not  will not keep getting this lucky

Russia want control of half of Europe (they believe it's there god give right) , and have  equal say with running the world with USA....

There is very little point in having a discussion with you over this as we are no doubt so far opposed in our views over the actions of Assad, the Russians, the Americans and other forces that our fundamental differences of opinion will hamper any possible discussion. That being said, Russian involvement in Syria can only be a good thing. I struggle to see how fighting Assad/Russia and IS with the assistance of Al Qaeda aligned rebel forces is a good idea. Part of me wishes that we learn from our mistakes of fighting with rebel forces against a sovereign nation, e.g. Afghanistan and Lybia, now with the added bonus of Syria/Iraq.

You believe America backing out of a ground war in Syria will kill 400,000 and displace 10 million, I believe that engaging, I believe America attempting to enforce a No Fly Zone and the subsequent ground war Russia will engage in to protect its interests will result in more dead and displaced in the short term, and the long term destabilisation such a war will have will be even worse than allowing Assad to regain control.

When has another country shown an interest in invading Australia, when has the US engaged in defence of Australia, how would the US defend an invasion of Australia, why would the US defend Australia, why would someone invade Australia? If Australia was Anti-Interventionist why would that change whether the US would defend Australia or not?

75 years ago...Japan

here a funny thing...the smart people don't bet Australia future  in something can't happen, especially when all it takes is a king or a presidents to make it happen.....fighting the odd US war in Iraq and Afghanistan is a very small prices to pay to keep little shits like you safe 

Hah, okay mate. Almost forgot who I was talking to. I don't accept that the slaughter of Australian children on a foreign battlefield where we are the invading force is a "small price to pay" and I especially don't agree that it's keeping fuckwits like you safe, but that's where we'll have to agree to disagree.

you think, everyone thinks like you...let me tell you, they don't

if you don't fight, it because you are weak, and if you are weak,I will take everything that you have...

You've lost the plot.  First you post a highly edited, out of context Michael Moore video purporting to be something it isn't and now you're saying Trump had an assassination attempt against him today.

Are you getting all of your information from Fox news or just some? 

Having said that Trump is correct when he says the system is rigged.

These (lengthy) articles will explain why. (If you have the time to wade through them).

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/06/27/ratfcked-the-influence-of-redistricting
http://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2016/07/19/gerrymandering-republicans-redmap

I'm not a massive follower of the US elections but reading these articles will make you shake your head at just how far gone democracy is in the US.

Frankly its outrageous what they have gotten up to over there.

Democracy is dead set broken in the US.