Trump going to lose both  Florida and North Carolina, Trump should win Iowa and good chance in Ohio......538 model doesn't take into account early voting, Trump getting smashed in early voting in both  Florida and North Carolina

Trump core base is white men, and white women with out a degree,,,every other group is going for HRC in a big way

Trump can't win these states, as there not enough  white men and white  women with out a degree,, to over come all the other  groups

Latino voters are not signing up to vote in record numbers in Florida to vote for Trump, even the Cuban  Latino voters are not voting Trump

Trump is dead

Ardtho you're objectively wrong here

Trump is OUTPERFORMING Romney in both FL and NC, and Romney won NC regardless. You're aware that Democrats rely on early voting to make up the deficiency on election day?

You talk of this Latino surge but the numbers don't back it up.  Black vote is down and the white is up:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WVpSksvTea8

The Hispanic vote in NC is negligible:

https://gyazo.com/a6417fd351602db1e3809645db384eae

Again, the increase in the white vote dwarfs the Hispanic vote in Florida:

https://gyazo.com/90e06bb78494eeec8402e517b96bf81b

Trump will probably lose, but it will be a close-run thing. NC and FL are his.

Obama won Florida last time by less then 1%

White voting in Florida is down 0.80%

white vote Trump 54%  HRC 40%
non white  Trump 19%  HRC 79%

it not the non white votes are bigger, it the margin between  HRC  and Trump on white votes are bigger,

when early voting become 60%-70% of the total votes,  it become very hard to make it up on election day,...

It's like talking to a fucking brick wall. I'd never thought I'd need that muter that MCJules made until now. 

The fact the election is this close really is a sad indictment of American politics. 

Election night will be a shitshow, but Hillary is still going to be President.

In other news, a candidate we can all rally around:

http://www.tedcruzforhumanpresident.com/ 

The moderate forces that shout god is great in every video they post, the moderate forces that fight alongside Nusra and other hardline groups. The Moderate forces in Aleppo that beheaded a 12 year old Palestinian kid(done by a group who was US vetted)? or the moderate rebels that stopped civilians from leaving East Aleppo unless they paid them money?

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-07-06/syrian-rebels-guilty-of-war-crimes:-amnesty-international/7572224
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/31/syrian-rebels-aleppo-offensive-could-amount-to-war-crimes-un-envoy-warns
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/aleppo-crisis-latest-rebel-assad-blame-un-lack-evacuations-a7374081.html

The only moderate groups in Syria are the Syrian Democratic Forces, the rest are a lost cause funded by Qatar, Turkey and Saudi.

Decider,

it isn't a sad indictment at all.

The left side of politics have to understand that the other side have genuine beliefs steeped in their conservatism and because they are continuously berated, ridiculed by the holier than thou SJW brigade, they are going to vote for candidates like Trump. fascism is taking a hold in Europe too, and in Australia we have 600,000 people who voted for Pauline Hanson.

You see, they don't have to agree with you at all. They can vote however they like, and because everyone is on egg shells, it's going to get a lot worse, given the fact many people have lost confidence in the system. 

that's what we call Democracy.

Yes you are right that there are some converted Al Nusra fighting alongside FSA. but you also have to understand what created this. And the War crimes inflicted against Sunni civilians which feeds them.

tell me, what's worse? An Al Qaeda suicide bomber who blows himself up and kills 30 people? Or the Sarin attacks that suffocate 1000 people at a time? or the barrel bombs and other indiscriminate killers.

What we have to do is get back to basics and that is the rule of law. back to the UN Charter, UNHCR, and Geneva Treaties. We are as a matter of fact witnessing some of the most deplorable War crimes against humanity since WW2. And we need to get on top of that as we can't afford not to because if there is no accountability, then there is nothing to stop the next mass murderer, or war criminal.

Assad created this. All these 52 groups actually sprung up for a reason. What's the reason?

Australia can't afford not to get involved. When I saw those Syrian kids being pulled from the rubble, it really affected me emotionally.  

I never talk to a brick wall, so I wouldn't know....

at this stage of the war, there is no moderate forces...even the Kurds are not moderate.., there are lots of crazy groups that let women fight

This is just the beginning - nationalism is on the upswing.

Nah.

For all its flaws, America isn't Europe. The bumper-sticker patriotism that has fueled Trump is not what you want it to be. Trump may speak to white nationalists, but they remain a small minority of Americans (and even of Trump supporters).

What is on the upswing, however, is chaos.

Republicans who can see the writing on the wall are either talking up another ridiculous impeachment saga once Hillary is president or are planning campaigns of their own in 2020.

Chaos is what they had with Obama too! That was chaos. 

In Europe, nationalism is catching like wildfire. Not just nationalism, but fascism. 

It rises amid the chaos. 

Yes you are right that there are some converted Al Nusra fighting alongside FSA. but you also have to understand what created this. And the War crimes inflicted against Sunni civilians which feeds them.

obviously Assad created it, what he didn't create was the fact that many joined hardline islamist groups, and were chanting christians to beirut, alawites to the coffin, even in the first stages of the protests.

tell me, what's worse? An Al Qaeda suicide bomber who blows himself up and kills 30 people? Or the Sarin attacks that suffocate 1000 people at a time? or the barrel bombs and other indiscriminate killers.

I seriously doubt Assad gave the ok to use chemical weapons, otherwise we would've seen them used much more often, it was likely a commander on his own accord.
http://warontherocks.com/2016/08/the-decay-of-the-syrian-regime-is-much-worse-than-you-think/ that gives a pretty good detail on how fractured the syrian govt is.


As for what's worse, I couldn't think of anything worse than hardline islamists taking over a country 30% non sunni muslim.

Oh yeah pardon me I forgot that most Trump supporters are Mexican nationalists

Mexicans are not a race of people.

They are a nationality.

Like Americans.

I think the range of outcomes that possible are from a narrow Trump win to a large Clinton win. So Trump has a small chance of victory, not as much as Nate Silver gives him at about 1/3. Everything needs to go right for Trump for him to win, not impossible. I expect Clinton to win and it to be reasonably comfortable as far as electoral college votes but she will only very narrowly win quite a few states. 

Nope, Trump will be Americas hero against the corrupt Clinton.

I'm not talking about purely white nationalists, I'm talking about populism across the world. It's been festering for a long time, but the Syrian refugee crisis and the inability to tackle the Islamic problem has really brought it too the forefront. UKIP/Brexit in the UK, Front National in France, Geert Wilders in the Netherlands, Orban (?) in Hungary. Hell, even over here we have Pauline and Duarte to our North.

Whether you like it or not, this sentiment is not going away when Trump (probably) loses.

11.mvfc.11, I managed to find 5+ faults in Hillary Clinton and listed them as reasons why she is a flawed candidate. It would be interesting to see if you could do the same for Donald Trump.

I agree that populism is on the rise, and that nationalism seems to be going hand-in-hand with it. But I think it's very simplistic to compare populism in the American context to populism in the European context. It certainly is on the rise in places like France/Italy/Eastern Europe (the UK is, imo, another separate case), but I think it's far too early to suggest that Trump is the start of a broader, long-term national populist movement in American politics.

What astounds me about right-wing populists (and the alt-right) is how easily they've been conned by Trump. He's different from European populists who truly believe in what they're running for (however disgraceful their platforms may be). Trump is not your champion, he's a narcissist. If he is somehow elected, he'll cause plenty of chaos but at the end of the day will probably be little more than a rubber stamp for Paul Ryan's Republican congress.

If Trump thought he'd get the most attention running on a far-left progressive platform, he'd have done that. But rather, he's picked the most gullible, least educated group of people to exploit - and it amazes me that even politically-minded people who actually care about right-wing populist values (scummy as they may be) have jumped on the bandwagon as well.

These are certainly worrying times (at least on my side of the political fence), but you shouldn't be cocky enough to take the mass delusion of almost half the American voting public as a vindication of your own beliefs. 

I never said that he was perfect - Trump is a pompous fuckwit incapable of keeping his mouth shut, but he broadly aligns with my political views and I don't want to imagine a Hillary presidency (although I guess I'll have to get used to it). If he only had half the oratory skill/composure as someone like a Farage then I think we'd be looking at a Republican presidency.

> I think it's far too early to suggest that Trump is the start of a broader, long-term national populist movement in American politics.

I didn't say start, I think it's just a symptom of the nationalist/populist movement that clearly already exists. Is it the 45% that he will most likely get in the general? Obviously not.

There's a phrase I'm forgetting at the moment, but ostensibly it means that certain taboo topics that were previously out-of-bounds of public discussion are now "acceptable" Immigration and Islam is now one of these things - thanks to Trump. 

However, I disagree that there isn't a clear link between America/Europe/(maybe even us?) - it's a rejection of globalism and "free trade" by the losers in this deal. 

I swear that we've had this exact discussion a few weeks ago. 

Florida Race/Ethnic votes cast & share of early vote to date:
B: 834.6k (13.1%)
H: 976.3k (15.3%)
W: 4.2m (65.8%)
All Other: 373k (5.8%) 


Florida Race/Ethnic votes cast & share of early vote in 2012:
B: 764.0k (15.9%)
H: 522.5k (10.9%)
W: 3.3m (67.9%)
All Other: 251.5k (7%)

how many of Trump supporters today, voted for the black guy in 2008 and 2012 :laugh:

,Assad  use chemical weapons many times now...  there no mistake

so, you think the Environmental issues are a load of shit, and you agree the  Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) should be close down, 

i'm sure you don't even really know what Trump political views are...I like to hear what political views you have that are the same as Trump

It's so fun watching America's fucked political system.

You only need to use Chemical Weapons once to constitute a War crime.

No one wants to take over the entire country except for DAESH that is and Assad.

The problem with both is that they are equally Sectarian. Syria was never a good place for a Sunni and this has been the case for 5 off decades so of course many Sunni Muslims even saw ISIL as liberators. Only now, they have seen ISIL's true colours and want to rid them as well. 

What the Syria Support group is trying to achieve is a national Unity Government, which is of course non sectarian.