It will definitely get better ratings than Fox - that is a given.

In terms of cross-promotion, I'm not really sure how often the primary channels promote stuff on the secondary channels.

On the ratings I am prepared to stick my head on the chopping block... the games will mostly be over 200 K.

To arrive at the figure you need to determine not what Foxs average was last year ... but what was the average of the Saturday night main game.

Second there will be I think two uplift factors... both by themselves small but also helpful.

First I expect a small uplift just by being on 10 say only 5%.

Second I think we will sort the governance issues out before the season starts and media will be positive.. A positive media will also add say 5%.

Take the best rating games add 10% for Fox. Most would then be around 100 to 110 K + ... 

Assume 10 can double Fox ... so for me between 220 & 300 K most nights. 

Not bad logic on the whole, except I'm not sure how you get to an average of 110k on Fox.

I just quickly checked the ratings for the last 7 rounds going back to start of March,  and these are the results:
 

04-Mar
Did not reach cut-off of 49k
11-Mar
10	LIVE: FOOTBALL: A-LEAGUE MELB V V PERTH	FOX SPORTS 505	73,000
18-Mar
11	LIVE: FOOTBALL: A-LEAGUE MELB V V PERTH	FOX SPORTS 505	75,000
25-Mar
Did not reach cut-off of 64k
Apr-01
12	LIVE: FOOTBALL: A-LEAGUE SYDNEY V MELB C	FOX SPORTS 505	52,000
Apr-08
Did not reach cut-off of 52k
Apr-15
Did not reach cut off of 42k

So four out of seven did not make the cut-off, getting less than 42k, 49k, 52k and 64k.

Out of the seven, there are two ratings over 70k:  73k and 75k.

Now maybe you can find higher ratings than that going back to the start of the season, but as I said above, you need consistently high ratings, you can't just hang your hat on 2 or 3 games per season.

Even if that ends up averaging 80k across the whole season, even if you allow for a 15% uplift (which takes you to 96k), doubling that and you are getting to around 192k - as an average, some will be higher than 200k, others will be lower - but I think you have to consistently get those ratings above 200k to have any chance of finding your way onto the primary channel -  in fact, I reckon it has to be consistently closer to 250k to get the execs' attention, anything less and you're just with the rest of the dross on TV.

Ps i just someone that works in media at a relative high level at 9 and confirmed what u were saying. 100% fox are taking over 10. 

News have set this up so so so so so so so so so cleverly..

10 have sales of roughly 690 million.... by fuck that is a big number ...

10 biggest cost factor is the price it pays for overseas shows... especially from Fox US..

Once News owns 10, 

10 will re-negotiate the overseas media deals... 

10 will return to profit... and News got it at a bargain price...

10 has a major issue on its books ... it does not produce enough Australian content...

Gets Football for a song ... takes the Fox Feed so less expense and gets heaps of Australian for next to nothing ...whereas Australian content normally costs a bomb.

the only thing stopping it is the ALP & Greens who don't want Murdoch to have both his newspapers and a FTA TV station.

Once Fox get it ... expect unbelievable positive coverage from News... plus expect the expansion teams they want it to get some good press..

Plus network 10 payed only around $150k a year for A-league/Socceroos games. They will make more money from advertising then what they paid for it win win for 10.

Good question above how did I get my 110K... see post below.

just waiting on the LNP to accept the latest round of bribing 

Sorry, I might have accidentally skimmed over it, but I keep seeing people saying things like, "Shame it's not in HD."
ONE is HD though, isn't it? And I didn't see any specific thing saying "these games will be in SD only." Happy to be proven wrong, but something I just noticed

With a glass of Hunter Red I took my base figures and made the following calculations.

I have made the following assumptions, 5% increase because of moving to 10, 5% increase due to Saturday night, 5% increase due to more positive media, when you compound the three 5% you end up with an increase of 1.16%.. then applied a Fox uplift factor of 2.25 ... all open for subjective judgement ... this is what it looks like... the final 4 rounds are the only poor part IMO..

 

RD	==	Rating == *	1.16		2.25	Est Ratings
1	==	142,000	==	164,720	==	370,620
2	==	132,000	==	153,120	==	344,520
3	==	113,000	==	131,080	==	294,930
4	==	115,000	==	133,400	==	300,150
5	==	113,000	==	131,080	==	294,930
6	==	96,000	==	111,360	==	250,560
7	==	119,000	==	138,040	==	310,590
8	==	73,000	==	84,680	==	190,530
9	==	89,000	==	103,240	==	232,290
10	==	105,000	==	121,800	==	274,050
11	==	81,000	==	93,960	==	211,410
12	==	79,000	==	91,640	==	206,190
13	==	73,000	==	84,680	==	190,530
14	==	90,000	==	104,400	==	234,900
15	==	102,000	==	118,320	==	266,220
16	==	60,000	==	69,600	==	156,600
17	==	74,000	==	85,840	==	193,140
18	==	83,000	==	96,280	==	216,630
19	==	82,000	==	95,120	==	214,020
20	==	119,000	==	138,040	==	310,590
21	==	72,000	==	83,520	==	187,920
22	==	83,000	==	96,280	==	216,630
23	==	73,000	==	84,680	==	190,530
24	==	46,000	==	53,360	==	120,060
25	==	52,000	==	60,320	==	135,720
26	==	49,000	==	56,840	==	127,890
27	==	39,000	==	45,240	==	101,790
	==
	==
Average	==	87,185	==	101,135	==	227,553
	==
Finals	==
1	==	112,000	==	129,920	==	292,320
2	==	116,000	==	134,560	==	302,760
3	==	81,000	==	93,960	==	211,410
4	==	101,000	==	117,160	==	263,610
5	==	275,000	==	319,000	==	717,750
Extra Time	==	460,000	==	533,600	==	1,200,600

w

I have been wondering the same thing. I think we may be disappointed but the third answer is a little vague. This from the Network Ten website.
tenplay.com.au/blog/the-insider/ten-hd-faqs

Is ONE still an HD channel?

No. 
It became a standard definition channel on Wednesday, 2 March 2016, the same day TEN HD was introduced.

Why could ONE not remain in HD?

As we are providing TEN SD and TEN HD in simulcast to ensure all viewers have the ability to watch TEN, we don’t have the spectrum capacity to keep ONE in HD as well. 
We always wanted to have TEN in HD, however, previously we were restricted under legislation. 
Now that these restrictions are lifted, we want to provide the highest quality viewing experience on TEN.

Will the sport seen in HD on ONE in the past now switch to TEN HD?

No. 
The premium sport on TEN will now be seen in crystal clear HD, including live Formula One races, live V8 Supercars races and highlights programs, the KFC Big Bash League, Rugby Union, RPM and Netball.
ONE will continue to bring great sport to viewers, including MotoGP, the Women’s Big Bash League, Super Rugby replays and Formula One highlights programs. 

The A-League is not a premium sport I take it.

Hopefully at least the Grand Final will be on Ten.

One would hope that in thw cities that actually have teams in the final would have it on Ten.

If BR were playing MV it would be nice if it were on Ten in those two cities at least.

Same maybe for the bif derby games. The Sydney Derby would be good on Ten in Sydney at least and the secondary channel in the othwr states. 

Isn't this how AFL is broadcast in some cities?

That's how the Saturday game goes. There's 2 Saturday night matches. 7 gets the big draw, Foxtel gets the sloppies. If the sloppies game involves a WA or SA team then it will go live in to the home market on FTA despite being a foxtel production. Not sure about NSW or QLD.

the project wouldnt shut up about the big bash so i expect similar things when it comes to the A-league

You can be pretty certain that once they convince that flog Waleed to encourage people to watch the sockah, all the other flogs will follow some trend that he starts and the stadiums/ratings will increase

Same happens in QLD and NSW. I was in Byron Bay over the weekend and 7Mate had the GWS game on with the Foxtel feed. It was weird seeing Eddie's head on a ch 7 multi-channel. 

correct
ten were never going under, just some fancy accounting and savvy media release ... Newscorp picks up Ten for a bargain

Aussies expand broadcast platform with Fox on-selling rights to Ten

5th June 2017
June 6 – Australian football, currently challenged by a slow moving reform process at federation level, has better news for stakeholders on the broadcast front with Ten Network announcing it has acquired the exclusive free-to-air rights to A-league and national team matches.

Fox Sports controlled the rights as part of a record six-year $255.5 million deal concluded earlier this year. This included the free-to-air rights which it has on-sold to Ten in a reported $1.5 million a year deal.

Ten will broadcast a Saturday evening A-League match, derbies, and all finals as well as Socceroos matches on multichannel One. Fox Sports will carry the vast bulk of live matches on its pay TV platform.

The deal with Ten includes selected games streamed live on the Ten Play app, as well as Foxtel Go.

The Ten deal rounds out the broadcast platform for Federation Football Australia (FFA) bringing a broader-based and wider promotional platform for the game as it grows in the sports-mad country. Fox brings the big money number.

With the increase in TV money came a dispute between the Australian A-League club owners and the FFA with the clubs rejecting the annual A$3.25 million per club financial offer from the FFA last month. The clubs argue they should receive more money from the new A$56 million per season broadcast deal agreed with Fox.

The FFA was already in dispute with clubs over representation on their board. Currently only 10 voters – the lowest of the 211 FIFA member nations – elect the FFA board. The clubs want more representation and FIFA has issued deadlines for the FFA to reform but they have been extended as no real common ground has been reached so far.

The dispute over the TV money saw all 10 club owners walk out of a meeting with the FFA in Sydney. The new deal is a 40% increase on the previous agreement. The increase in the offer to clubs is 24%, up from the previous A$2.6 million per season.

http://www.insideworldfootball.com/2017/06/05/aussies-expand-broadcast-platform-fox-selling-rights-ten/

If the $255.5m includes the $1.5m for in selling the rights to Channel 10, my maths tells me the deal is for only $42.58m per season, not the  $56m everyone keeps talking about.

Am i missing something?

The amount is irrelevant. How can FFA justify not giving the clubs (or professional league system) not even the percentage amount increase, that they supply?

It is a disgrace.

Another small snippet to help us piece all of this together.  Because a lot of the news reports often round up numbers, it's hard to get a handle on the exact figures with precision.  

This is the most up to date table I had been able to put together on the headline figure of $346 million, broken down across the six years, based on snippets we had received from different news reports, and I think Waz has confirmed that his calcs are pretty close to what's in this table:
 

Break down of six year TV deal ($346M)	Cash component  ($M)			Non-cash	Total
	Base Cash	2 new teams	Incentives	Contra	Cash & non
Year 1	44.5			6	50.5
Year 2	44.5	5.6		6	56.1
Year 3	44.5	5.6		6	56.1
Year 4	44.5	5.6		6	56.1
Year 5	44.5	5.6	7.5	6	63.6
Year 6	44.5	5.6	7.5	6	63.6
Total	267.0	28.0	15.0	36	346.0

��

So we had been able to work out previously that the base cash component of the deal across the six years is $44.5 mill per annum or $267 million in total .

The one thing we had not been 100% certain about was whether the $2 mill per annum deal which Fox had guaranteed was already included or not.  One article we saw about three weeks ago appeared to intimate that the $2 mill was already included, which wouldn't surprise me given the manner in which info has been released about the headline $346 mill figure.

Now, 6 x $2 mill = $12 mill.

Subtract $12 mill from $267 mill, and you get $255 mill, which is very close to the figure reported in the latest article.  I would guess that the $500k difference is merely rounding, i.e.   the exact per annum figure for the FTA component which Fox guaranteed is $1.916 million, or $11.5 million over the six years.

If someone would like confirm those calculations, I'll update the table so that we always have the most up to date break down available each time we want to have a look at the numbers.

So if the FTA component of $11.5 mill is included above, and the total cash component across six years is actually $255.5 million, that means the annual base cash component across the six years is $42.583 million.

All of a sudden, we understand why the FFA is only wanting to guarantee an annual dividend of $3.25 mill per club, and retain about $10 mill in cash for administration (which is not over the top in my opinion).

what is contra in your table

also what are the incentives

The TV deal is not the only source of revenue for the FFA

I'm pretty sure it was mentioned that FFA total annual revenue from the A League is closer to $100m

Can somebody clarify this point?

Fox say they'll throw in $6m worth of advertising for the League

If certain viewing metrics are met

This lack of clarity is probably the issue

Owners claim it's a massive $x, FFA say it's only $y

And this is why any expansion will be loss making, and why it's been put on the backburner until FFA can find an excuse to chuck Franks wet dream in the bin

Cue Deloitte